12/12 - 12/16 Upper MW Blizzard

[hawkstwelve]

Winter Weather Advisory issued for my area from 12PM today through 12PM tomorrow. Calling for up to 0.25 of ice and an inch of snow with wind gusts to 40 mph. Also expecting to get around an inch or more of rain. Going to be a whole lotta water around with that and snow melt over the next couple days.

Still looking like anything that falls starting Wednesday morning will be snow with Wed/Thurs being our best bet at scoring a few inches. Some models are showing up to 6 inches or so. My current thinking is between 3-5 inches. We shall see what happens.

[Tom]

11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Winter Weather Advisory issued for my area from 12PM today through 12PM tomorrow. Calling for up to 0.25 of ice and an inch of snow with wind gusts to 40 mph. Also expecting to get around an inch or more of rain. Going to be a whole lotta water around with that and snow melt over the next couple days.

Still looking like anything that falls starting Wednesday morning will be snow with Wed/Thurs being our best bet at scoring a few inches. Some models are showing up to 6 inches or so. My current thinking is between 3-5 inches. We shall see what happens.

Good luck bud!  The NAM is interesting for YBY...might be picking up on the smaller features of this Beast of a storm...

0z UKIE not bad...

 

 

[Tom]

06z RGEM is showing what I was referring to the other day where we saw a similar GL's storm some years ago that had a very similar set up.  Notice the slug of moisture coming up from the Gulf states as a potent wave explodes and gets thrown back into the cold sector.  @Madtownthis is eye candy for you...and possibly some of the MN members depending on how this evolves.  

[Madtown]

Just wishing this was tomorrow not pushed out to Thurs

[Tom]

Sunrise Ski Resort mountain cam as the daylight begins to emerge...it's located in the White Mountains about 200 miles to me East...

https://www.sunrise.ski/winter/trails-and-camera/

[tStacsh]

All i can hope for is a good set up on the back side with lake effect.  Normal for here these days.  

[hawkstwelve]

Current thinking from NWS FSD on snow totals through Thursday AM. They emphasize that additional snow is possible, especially in SE SD/NW IA/SW MN, on Thursday and into Friday as we deal with any deformation bands and wraparound moisture. 

[sholomar]

There's a bubble of cold air that's been hanging around SE SD from the dumping of snow we got a few days back that I hope helps us out. Granted that won't help with mid level warm air melting the snow, but it's great to see the snow totals trending upward regardless.

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/20221208-WinterSystem-CWA

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/winter

They now have us getting 3 inches on the low end, 8 inches there's a 10% chance, along with .28" of ice in Brookings.

Edited December 12, 2022 by sholomar
keloland graphics

[Bryan1117]

20 minutes ago, sholomar said:

There's a bubble of cold air that's been hanging around SE SD from the dumping of snow we got a few days back that I hope helps us out. Granted that won't help with mid level warm air melting the snow, but it's great to see the snow totals trending upward regardless.

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/20221208-WinterSystem-CWA

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/winter

They now have us getting 3 inches on the low end, 8 inches there's a 10% chance, along with .28" of ice in Brookings.

Wow, what a beast of a storm for areas out west in Nebraska and South Dakota.. really hoping that this storm will cycle around next time for us posters to the east.

Looking forward to getting some much-needed rain tonight and tomorrow, and maybe a little bit of wrap around snow later this week in Eastern Nebraska. 

[hawkstwelve]

40 minutes ago, sholomar said:

There's a bubble of cold air that's been hanging around SE SD from the dumping of snow we got a few days back that I hope helps us out. Granted that won't help with mid level warm air melting the snow, but it's great to see the snow totals trending upward regardless.

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/20221208-WinterSystem-CWA

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/winter

They now have us getting 3 inches on the low end, 8 inches there's a 10% chance, along with .28" of ice in Brookings.

Hey, a fellow South Dakotan! That's cool - I didn't know we had any other folks on here from SD.

Definitely like your chances at higher accumulation up there as you should be quicker to changeover to snow than down here. That Keloland graphic shows 2-4 through 6AM Thursday for SF which most models agree snow will continue into Friday. That paired with NWS's 1-4 during that same timeframe makes me feel a little more comfortable with my overall 3-5 call for down here.

As to the icing - I have noticed that models are slightly too warm with the surface level temps at initiation, most likely due to the existing deeper-than-expected snow cover. Unfortunately I don't think that equates to more snow as the upper levels warm too much in this part of SD. Instead, I think it might lead to heavier icing than currently forecast. Really hope I'm wrong as I would really like to avoid a significant icing event.

[james1976]

GFS and CMC are looking a bit weaker for the TC metro. I think the low is tracking more north so the wraparound is a bit north. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z GEM showing a bad ice storm for Sioux Falls while the 12z Euro shows just a light glaze.

Really, really hope the Euro takes home the W on this one.

[Madtown]

All models showing a nice snow event over this way, but just nervous as it seems to be not your normal storm and guessing we are gonna have 5 more changes between now and Thurs

[hawkstwelve]

Total snow for this system, per 12z Euro...

[Madtown]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Total snow for this system, per 12z Euro...

Got a close up of the great lakes 12?

[hawkstwelve]

Just now, Madtown said:

Got a close up of the great lakes 12?

You bet!

[james1976]

Not happy with models trending weaker around the TC but 6+ is still solid. Got a couple days yet for that to change. 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

You bet!

The Euro just did what the RGEM was showing and bring a huge slug of GOM moisture into the cold sector.  In fact, the 12z EPS just upped totals for the Northwoods of Wisco/MN and the Yoopers!

 

 

[sholomar]

For those interested in viewing webcams of this storm some nice ones are here... not all of them are in the best condition as of now but the Watertown and Rapid City ones are in good shape, as is the Sturgis 1 and Deadwood cams which should get some high snow totals.

https://www.keloland.com/weather/live-cameras/

  Just like yesterday we came in under the forecast high by 4 degrees with a bubble of cold air over the coteau des prairies and the temp being 28-29 degrees right now.  Some light freezing drizzle is falling. Will be interested to see if it warms up to the forecast nighttime low of 31.

A little history lesson:  https://cdplodge.com/about/coteau-des-prairies-legendary/

 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

The moisture we need

[hawkstwelve]

Some freezing drizzle already with a very light glaze on most surfaces. 

18z Euro is showing way more icing for Sioux Falls than it's previous run (0.01) which really sucks. Not a fan of ice storms in the slightest. One of the few weather phenomena that I'd rather not experience.

[jaster220]

39 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Some freezing drizzle already with a very light glaze on most surfaces. 

18z Euro is showing way more icing for Sioux Falls than it's previous run (0.01) which really sucks. Not a fan of ice storms in the slightest. One of the few weather phenomena that I'd rather not experience.

They can be beautiful but at the same time a real pain in the a** at a minimum. Been in 3 bad ones and it ranks #2 least desirable wx event on my list right behind prolonged drought. 

My oldest sister lives in SD since the 80's and is included in the Bliz Warnings - a rarity for her town. 

[hawkstwelve]

Latest HRRR is showing 0.53 of ice overnight. That's not good.

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Latest HRRR is showing 0.53 of ice overnight. That's not good.

How much wind are you expecting?

[hawkstwelve]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

How much wind are you expecting?

Gusts in the 20s overnight building up to either side of 40 mph tomorrow morning and afternoon. 

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Gusts in the 20s overnight building up to either side of 40 mph tomorrow morning and afternoon. 

Yikes!  Lets hope it turns to snow quick.  Good luck it's almost show time for ya.

[Madtown]

0z nam has a bunch freezing rain for u as well

[hawkstwelve]

18z Euro shows what @Tomwas talking about with that GOM precip. It makes it further westward than previous runs as it wraps around the low, to the point where even we get clipped by it out here. Helps up totals a bit more for some areas.

Edit: NWS updated WWA. Now calling for up to three tenths of an inch of ice.

[CentralNebWeather]

Thunder and lightning has begun. Has that spring smell at 46 degrees and a strong south wind

[jaster220]

Can't remember these guys using the "M" word before. To be honest, the coverage of headlines might rival Jan '78 so I concur. 

[CentralNebWeather]

It can rain in Central Nebraska. Been a long time coming. 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Continues to pour rain here. Heaviest rain since probably a storm in July. Very sharp lightning and loud thunder. Rain gauge says over 0.50” so far. 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Continues to pour rain here. Heaviest rain since probably a storm in July. Very sharp lightning and loud thunder. Rain gauge says over 0.50” so far. 

Happy for you and your area.  Looks like you have a good chance to push it over an inch tonight which is a great rain for this time of year.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Happy for you and your area.  Looks like you have a good chance to push it over an inch tonight which is a great rain for this time of year.

Thanks. Forecast says an inch tonight and a cold rain tomorrow that turns to snow showers. This is probably the best case scenario of moisture. Get the rain now and hope for snow before Christmas. 

[james1976]

Just made it up to the MN home. Pretty strong east wind. Looks like a WWA advisory for tomorrow for ice glazing and 2" of snow. Throw in 45mph wind gusts as well.

[CentralNebWeather]

0.65” as of 9:15 pm as more rounds of storms come up from the south. Should easily get over 1” tonight. 

[hawkstwelve]

Suddenly don't have the best feeling about tonight. Temp is stubbornly holding at 30 and freezing rain is increasing as well as some gusty winds. Power has flashed a few times. Hopefully some of the heavier precip moving in can help bring down some warmer air and push us back over freezing. Otherwise, we are looking at some fairly decent icing. Some totals on the models are not good. Add to that the snow still remaining on trees and then heavy rain as soon as we transition and there are going to be some very weighted trees.

Just found out son's school is already delayed 2 hours. Hope we can get past this part of the storm without too much trouble.

Edit: And just like that, upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning. "Significant icing" expected with three to four tenths of an inch and 40 mph winds. Wonderful.

[hawkstwelve]

Euro now up to 0.63 of ice through tomorrow morning. Can only hope it's wrong.

I will say we currently seem to be getting a freezing rain, rain, sleet mix a the moment and the temperature has finally rose to 31. Now is about the only time I'm hoping and praying we get above freezing!

[OmahaSnowFan]

34 degrees and a tstorm just moved through. Glorious weather indeed.

[gabel23]

Not sure this was mentioned in oax disco today…..

on a sad note I’m sitting at .03” and praying the storms in Kansas train for all of central and eastern Nebraska through the night.

[Madtown]

how goes it out there 12? 

[Clinton]

Nice rain this morning with some occasional thunder and lightning.   Rainfall amounts look to be around 1 inch for me by the end of the day.

 

[Madtown]

All models still showing 12" plus here...local and nws going with 5-10"

[Grizzcoat]

system laying a dud here so far-- only .30" of QPF (rain) thus far. T-storms robbing moisture ?? Most guidance has just NW of DSM near .60" Qpf at this time hours back...  This system is either going way N of forecast or occluding earlier --- or both.  My hunch is the former.

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, Madtown said:

All models still showing 12" plus here...local and nws going with 5-10"

I think you'll do better than a Foot...you guys look golden with the 2nd surge of moisture that comes in Wed PM into Thursday AM where it will Thump SN (2"+/hr)...could there be some convective activity???  

 

 

[Tom]

Not a bad looking strengthening CO Low...

[Tom]

06z Euro...

 

[hawkstwelve]

Icing did not end up as bad as anticipated last night, thankfully. Looks like we got a little under two tenths of an inch and the temp has warmed to 33 so we're seeing light rain now. Phew, dodged that bullet.

Should see mostly rain today here with some gusty winds. Tonight is a lull with the dry slot and perhaps a light wintry mix. By tomorrow morning we should be all snow, which should continue to fall through Friday afternoon. It looks like most models have settled between 4-5 inches so, barring any surprises, I'm feeling good with my 3-5 forecast.

[gabel23]

Got robbed out of some good moisture yet again. Received .14" over night as most of the showers either stayed to my west or east. Hoping we can buck this trend for the next storm. 

[hawkstwelve]

There she is.