12/12 - 12/16 Upper MW Blizzard

[sholomar]

For those interested in viewing webcams of this storm some nice ones are here... not all of them are in the best condition as of now but the Watertown and Rapid City ones are in good shape, as is the Sturgis 1 and Deadwood cams which should get some high snow totals.

https://www.keloland.com/weather/live-cameras/

  Just like yesterday we came in under the forecast high by 4 degrees with a bubble of cold air over the coteau des prairies and the temp being 28-29 degrees right now.  Some light freezing drizzle is falling. Will be interested to see if it warms up to the forecast nighttime low of 31.

A little history lesson:  https://cdplodge.com/about/coteau-des-prairies-legendary/

 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

The moisture we need

[jaster220]

39 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Some freezing drizzle already with a very light glaze on most surfaces. 

18z Euro is showing way more icing for Sioux Falls than it's previous run (0.01) which really sucks. Not a fan of ice storms in the slightest. One of the few weather phenomena that I'd rather not experience.

They can be beautiful but at the same time a real pain in the a** at a minimum. Been in 3 bad ones and it ranks #2 least desirable wx event on my list right behind prolonged drought. 

My oldest sister lives in SD since the 80's and is included in the Bliz Warnings - a rarity for her town. 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Latest HRRR is showing 0.53 of ice overnight. That's not good.

How much wind are you expecting?

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Gusts in the 20s overnight building up to either side of 40 mph tomorrow morning and afternoon. 

Yikes!  Lets hope it turns to snow quick.  Good luck it's almost show time for ya.

[Madtown]

0z nam has a bunch freezing rain for u as well

[CentralNebWeather]

Thunder and lightning has begun. Has that spring smell at 46 degrees and a strong south wind

[jaster220]

Can't remember these guys using the "M" word before. To be honest, the coverage of headlines might rival Jan '78 so I concur. 

[CentralNebWeather]

It can rain in Central Nebraska. Been a long time coming. 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Continues to pour rain here. Heaviest rain since probably a storm in July. Very sharp lightning and loud thunder. Rain gauge says over 0.50” so far. 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Continues to pour rain here. Heaviest rain since probably a storm in July. Very sharp lightning and loud thunder. Rain gauge says over 0.50” so far. 

Happy for you and your area.  Looks like you have a good chance to push it over an inch tonight which is a great rain for this time of year.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Happy for you and your area.  Looks like you have a good chance to push it over an inch tonight which is a great rain for this time of year.

Thanks. Forecast says an inch tonight and a cold rain tomorrow that turns to snow showers. This is probably the best case scenario of moisture. Get the rain now and hope for snow before Christmas. 

[james1976]

Just made it up to the MN home. Pretty strong east wind. Looks like a WWA advisory for tomorrow for ice glazing and 2" of snow. Throw in 45mph wind gusts as well.

[CentralNebWeather]

0.65” as of 9:15 pm as more rounds of storms come up from the south. Should easily get over 1” tonight. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

34 degrees and a tstorm just moved through. Glorious weather indeed.

[gabel23]

Not sure this was mentioned in oax disco today…..

on a sad note I’m sitting at .03” and praying the storms in Kansas train for all of central and eastern Nebraska through the night.

[Madtown]

how goes it out there 12? 

[Clinton]

Nice rain this morning with some occasional thunder and lightning.   Rainfall amounts look to be around 1 inch for me by the end of the day.

 

[Madtown]

All models still showing 12" plus here...local and nws going with 5-10"

[Grizzcoat]

system laying a dud here so far-- only .30" of QPF (rain) thus far. T-storms robbing moisture ?? Most guidance has just NW of DSM near .60" Qpf at this time hours back...  This system is either going way N of forecast or occluding earlier --- or both.  My hunch is the former.

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, Madtown said:

All models still showing 12" plus here...local and nws going with 5-10"

I think you'll do better than a Foot...you guys look golden with the 2nd surge of moisture that comes in Wed PM into Thursday AM where it will Thump SN (2"+/hr)...could there be some convective activity???  

 

 

[Tom]

Not a bad looking strengthening CO Low...

[Tom]

06z Euro...

 

[gabel23]

Got robbed out of some good moisture yet again. Received .14" over night as most of the showers either stayed to my west or east. Hoping we can buck this trend for the next storm. 

[Bryan1117]

Never thought I could be happy with getting rain and thundershowers with temperatures hovering in the mid and upper 30's for a storm system in the middle of December, however that's the hand we have been dealt around here this year. So far I have picked up almost 0.75" of rainfall from this system. 

Now, can we please get some snow to go with the upcoming cold (0.1" so far this year isn't cutting it)???

[Beltrami Island]

I think this is the most snow I have seen for a point forecast in Minnesota, 19-32" through Thursday night. I am skeptical of the high end, but if there is an area in minnesota that can do this, this is it.  1100 feet of orographic lift with flow coming straight off the lake... 

[gabel23]

Currently inside the eye wall of this beast! The cloud formation is crazy! (Not sure why the pictures aren't just showing up??)

 

 

Meanwhile this is going on out in western nebraska. Crazy all roads are closed. 

 

 

 

 

 

IMG_2223.pdf IMG_2221.pdf

[sholomar]

Storm has been as much of a downer as I suspected it would be... but their models were surprisingly accurate. We are finally getting some snow minutes after I made this post. The days of them totally botching the storms when I was younger or even 5-10 years ago has really diminished. I must admit I'm impressed with the ability of models to predict these storms the last few years.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Assuming rain is done here, I’ll end up with .87” of rain. Heaviest totals since beginning of September THREE MONTHS AGO.

[Grizzcoat]

I was wrong on previous post about DSM area getting dry slotted.  So far 1.21" at DSM.  Brings monthly total to 1.56" -- 1.58" is normal, so unless less that .03 the rest of the month - this will be the 2nd month in a row with above normal precip.

Yearly total stands and 30.16". 30 year avg is 36.02". DSM area  avg back to 1879 is 32.57" -- so all in all-- really not that far behind climo. Now to just convert to snow over the next few weeks would be great....

[Clinton]

So far I have received .70 inches of rain today.  A broken line of storms is forming along the cold front so there is a chance I could receive more.  Otherwise drizzle and fog will last through the evening.

[jaster220]

Sometimes funny stuff just happens

[BMT]

man this thing is a beast.  It is downright nasty out there!  Wish it was a bit more wintery for E IA but fun to track nonetheless.  

[Madtown]

Still being cautiously optimistic that this might happen up this way

[Beltrami Island]

Point forecast for the same spot I posted before ups the total to 23-36" plus 2-4" more on Friday.

If I were reading this blind I would be crazy to guess it is anywhere in Minnesota. Pacific Northwest, or someplace just above Valdez AK would be reasonable guesses.

[jaster220]

0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday

[jaster220]

40 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Point forecast for the same spot I posted before ups the total to 23-36" plus 2-4" more on Friday.

If I were reading this blind I would be crazy to guess it is anywhere in Minnesota. Pacific Northwest, or someplace just above Valdez AK would be reasonable guesses.

I believe that "North Shore" region of MN already scored one big LES storm. This would be their 2nd (and much bigger) hit. That place is on a roll. 

Edit - NWS map has some small regions with 30-36" on their snowfall map, and that's only thru 6 pm Thur!

[jaster220]

Yeah NAM. I wish. Gotta go in and have your thermals checked and re-calibrated. 

[jaster220]

15 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday

@Stacsh Heads-up!

"Def looks good for a big chunk of Wisconsin and western lower MI in line for high winds (3km NAM and HRRR showing 60-70 mph gusts over central LM and onto the MI shore.)

[Hoosier]

34 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday

Anybody who is on the roads in southern WI and maybe far northern IL tomorrow night/early Thursday is going to be in for a little surprise.  Rapidly changing conditions as the column dynamically cools.  It may go from rain to heavy snow very fast.

[Tom]

36 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well after freezing rain on Monday and then a bunch of plain ol rain yesterday - the third and final phase of the storm has started with p-type changing to snow and a dusting on the ground so far. Models backed off yesterday to showing only a couple inches falling but have since rebounded with the 06z Euro showing 5.5 inches by Saturday morning.

Did all your previous snow get wipe away?

[Madtown]

Light freezing rain atm here

[Hawkeye]

This storm has under-performed here.  Models predicted rain in the 0.70-1.00" range, but we ended up with only 0.56".  Since late yesterday it has been mostly drizzle.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Luckily no! We somehow made it through yesterday's heavy rain with snow still on the ground. You can see a bit more of the grass in my yard in some spots because of my dogs running around everywhere but my neighbor's yard (no dogs, no kids) is still completely covered. I'd say on average we still have a couple inches or so.

Nice!  Snow on Snow is a win win scenario.

[james1976]

Currently in a winter storm watch for 3-7". Warning just 1 county to my east!

[OttumwaSnomow]

My rain total with this is impressive.  1.01 inches rain in less than 20 hours, not bad for December  here. Some areas to my west and sw maybe near 2 inches. Ground  wasnt frozen at all so was a vitally important  sys to help end the drought. Im at 1.39 precip for December  do in the past 90 days since about Sept 12th Im at about 12 inches of precip! Significantly  above normal!

[Beltrami Island]

So what is the best mesoscale model for snowfall out to 24-48 hours?  I see a bunch on tropical tidbits and pivotal weather but usually winter snow system move so fast by me they are not very accurate or worth looking at.  

[bud2380]

This secondary band of precip currently down in MO really means business as it tracks north. I'm hoping it tracks a bit further west than currently progged by the models.  I'll be in northeast Iowa this weekend at my parents place and some models are showing several inches up there.  I'd like to see at least a few inches, so the kids can get out and play in the snow.  The Canadian models are the furthest west in Iowa with that heavy snow band.  The GFS rides right along the Mississippi River in NE Iowa.  The NAM is the furthest east/north.  Will be fun to see it play out. 

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

Had about a half inch of wet snow overnight. Now we're in a lull. Kind of the calm before the storm feeling today. 35 cloudy and a bit of a mild feel in the air today.

[Tom]

56 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

So what is the best mesoscale model for snowfall out to 24-48 hours?  I see a bunch on tropical tidbits and pivotal weather but usually winter snow system move so fast by me they are not very accurate or worth looking at.  

FV-3 or the RAP do pretty good...