Jump to content

12/12 - 12/16 Upper MW Blizzard


Tom

Recommended Posts

For those interested in viewing webcams of this storm some nice ones are here... not all of them are in the best condition as of now but the Watertown and Rapid City ones are in good shape, as is the Sturgis 1 and Deadwood cams which should get some high snow totals.

https://www.keloland.com/weather/live-cameras/

  Just like yesterday we came in under the forecast high by 4 degrees with a bubble of cold air over the coteau des prairies and the temp being 28-29 degrees right now.  Some light freezing drizzle is falling. Will be interested to see if it warms up to the forecast nighttime low of 31.

A little history lesson:  https://cdplodge.com/about/coteau-des-prairies-legendary/

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Some freezing drizzle already with a very light glaze on most surfaces. 

18z Euro is showing way more icing for Sioux Falls than it's previous run (0.01) which really sucks. Not a fan of ice storms in the slightest. One of the few weather phenomena that I'd rather not experience.

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-frzr_total-0972400.png

They can be beautiful but at the same time a real pain in the a** at a minimum. Been in 3 bad ones and it ranks #2 least desirable wx event on my list right behind prolonged drought. 

My oldest sister lives in SD since the 80's and is included in the Bliz Warnings - a rarity for her town. 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can't remember these guys using the "M" word before. To be honest, the coverage of headlines might rival Jan '78 so I concur. 

image.png.b4c2f09e3e3712a47e51ea9148675e1a.png

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Continues to pour rain here. Heaviest rain since probably a storm in July. Very sharp lightning and loud thunder. Rain gauge says over 0.50” so far. 

Happy for you and your area.  Looks like you have a good chance to push it over an inch tonight which is a great rain for this time of year.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Happy for you and your area.  Looks like you have a good chance to push it over an inch tonight which is a great rain for this time of year.

Thanks. Forecast says an inch tonight and a cold rain tomorrow that turns to snow showers. This is probably the best case scenario of moisture. Get the rain now and hope for snow before Christmas. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

system laying a dud here so far-- only .30" of QPF (rain) thus far. T-storms robbing moisture ?? Most guidance has just NW of DSM near .60" Qpf at this time hours back...  This system is either going way N of forecast or occluding earlier --- or both.  My hunch is the former.

  • Like 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Madtown said:

All models still showing 12" plus here...local and nws going with 5-10"

I think you'll do better than a Foot...you guys look golden with the 2nd surge of moisture that comes in Wed PM into Thursday AM where it will Thump SN (2"+/hr)...could there be some convective activity???  

image.png

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Never thought I could be happy with getting rain and thundershowers with temperatures hovering in the mid and upper 30's for a storm system in the middle of December, however that's the hand we have been dealt around here this year. So far I have picked up almost 0.75" of rainfall from this system. 

Now, can we please get some snow to go with the upcoming cold (0.1" so far this year isn't cutting it)???

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Storm has been as much of a downer as I suspected it would be... but their models were surprisingly accurate. We are finally getting some snow minutes after I made this post. The days of them totally botching the storms when I was younger or even 5-10 years ago has really diminished. I must admit I'm impressed with the ability of models to predict these storms the last few years.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was wrong on previous post about DSM area getting dry slotted.  So far 1.21" at DSM.  Brings monthly total to 1.56" -- 1.58" is normal, so unless less that .03 the rest of the month - this will be the 2nd month in a row with above normal precip.

Yearly total stands and 30.16". 30 year avg is 36.02". DSM area  avg back to 1879 is 32.57" -- so all in all-- really not that far behind climo. Now to just convert to snow over the next few weeks would be great....

  • Like 7

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sometimes funny stuff just happens

image.png.340fffb504a59b6fde260c48760a2a5e.png

  • Like 5

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_32.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Point forecast for the same spot I posted before ups the total to 23-36" plus 2-4" more on Friday.

If I were reading this blind I would be crazy to guess it is anywhere in Minnesota. Pacific Northwest, or someplace just above Valdez AK would be reasonable guesses.

Screenshot_20221213-211713.png

I believe that "North Shore" region of MN already scored one big LES storm. This would be their 2nd (and much bigger) hit. That place is on a roll. 

Edit - NWS map has some small regions with 30-36" on their snowfall map, and that's only thru 6 pm Thur!

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah NAM. I wish. Gotta go in and have your thermals checked and re-calibrated. 

namconus_asnow_neus_23.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_32.png

@Stacsh Heads-up!

"Def looks good for a big chunk of Wisconsin and western lower MI in line for high winds (3km NAM and HRRR showing 60-70 mph gusts over central LM and onto the MI shore.)

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_32.png

Anybody who is on the roads in southern WI and maybe far northern IL tomorrow night/early Thursday is going to be in for a little surprise.  Rapidly changing conditions as the column dynamically cools.  It may go from rain to heavy snow very fast.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well after freezing rain on Monday and then a bunch of plain ol rain yesterday - the third and final phase of the storm has started with p-type changing to snow and a dusting on the ground so far. Models backed off yesterday to showing only a couple inches falling but have since rebounded with the 06z Euro showing 5.5 inches by Saturday morning.

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-1321600-1.png

Did all your previous snow get wipe away?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This storm has under-performed here.  Models predicted rain in the 0.70-1.00" range, but we ended up with only 0.56".  Since late yesterday it has been mostly drizzle.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Luckily no! We somehow made it through yesterday's heavy rain with snow still on the ground. You can see a bit more of the grass in my yard in some spots because of my dogs running around everywhere but my neighbor's yard (no dogs, no kids) is still completely covered. I'd say on average we still have a couple inches or so.

Nice!  Snow on Snow is a win win scenario.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My rain total with this is impressive.  1.01 inches rain in less than 20 hours, not bad for December  here. Some areas to my west and sw maybe near 2 inches. Ground  wasnt frozen at all so was a vitally important  sys to help end the drought. Im at 1.39 precip for December  do in the past 90 days since about Sept 12th Im at about 12 inches of precip! Significantly  above normal!

  • Like 4
  • Rain 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This secondary band of precip currently down in MO really means business as it tracks north. I'm hoping it tracks a bit further west than currently progged by the models.  I'll be in northeast Iowa this weekend at my parents place and some models are showing several inches up there.  I'd like to see at least a few inches, so the kids can get out and play in the snow.  The Canadian models are the furthest west in Iowa with that heavy snow band.  The GFS rides right along the Mississippi River in NE Iowa.  The NAM is the furthest east/north.  Will be fun to see it play out. 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

So what is the best mesoscale model for snowfall out to 24-48 hours?  I see a bunch on tropical tidbits and pivotal weather but usually winter snow system move so fast by me they are not very accurate or worth looking at.  

FV-3 or the RAP do pretty good...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Guest unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...