12/12 - 12/16 Upper MW Blizzard

Tom · December 10, 2022

A powerhouse storm will develop across the majority of our SUB on Monday (right over @CentralNebWeather @hawkstwelve) and reach peak intensity sometime late on Tuesday where it will begin to occlude as it SLOWLY migrates East into the Lower Lakes region. It appears the models have digested the blocking pattern and slowed down the progression of this system and it will take a few days before it exits the SUB. This system will pack quite the punch as a multi-day, multifaceted storm system takes over the central U.S. Who will get Feet of Snow? Who gets the Severe storms? Let's discuss...

0z EURO...nice signal showing up for wrap-around Snows...might even be some lake effect in parts of SE WI...

Tom · December 10, 2022

0z EPS suggesting the ULL system to dump SN across the GL's....these vertically stacked closed ULL's tend to have a unique character so we'll have to monitor how this all ends up. Could throw some surprises up here....

Clinton · December 10, 2022

look at the moisture this storm will spread across the SUB.

Clinton · December 10, 2022

6z EC doesn't get the whole thing but looks to spread a coating of snow across the northern US.

Tom · December 10, 2022

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

look at the moisture this storm will spread across the SUB.

This should get the barge traffic to kick up a notch on the Good ol' Mississippi River...

CentralNebWeather · December 10, 2022

NWS Hastings with their thoughts on storm track

I don`t expect much of a shift in the storm track given the tight clustering of the model ensemble members, but it will take a southward shift for us to see any kind of noteworthy snow. If we are going to see any kind of appreciable storm track shift it would probably need to show up in the models by tonight or the odds of it happening will really lower as we get progressively closer to the event.

jaster220 · December 10, 2022

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Hastings with their thoughts on storm track

I don`t expect much of a shift in the storm track given the tight clustering of the model ensemble members, but it will take a southward shift for us to see any kind of noteworthy snow. If we are going to see any kind of appreciable storm track shift it would probably need to show up in the models by tonight or the odds of it happening will really lower as we get progressively closer to the event.

Just as unlikely is mby seeing even a flake from this in spite of more rosy snow maps. Uggh! So tired of fake Op model snow. N of Detroit perhaps 1 or 2" before rain I could see that perhaps.

Niko · December 10, 2022

This will be a fun, interesting storm to track. I'm very curious to see how all this will play out.

Hoosier · December 10, 2022

38 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Just as unlikely is mby seeing even a flake from this in spite of more rosy snow maps. Uggh! So tired of fake Op model snow. N of Detroit perhaps 1 or 2" before rain I could see that perhaps.

Even in a worst case scenario, you should see flakes on the backside.

For front end snow, hope for a quicker occlusion out in the Plains. That would mute the surge of warmth in the Lakes.

Clinton · December 10, 2022

12z Euro looks better this run @hawkstwelve and some Mich peeps

GFS better also

Niko · December 10, 2022

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro looks better this run @hawkstwelve and some Mich peeps

GFS better also

I'll take 6" from the GFS and run. No questions asked!!!!!

james1976 · December 10, 2022

I'll be back in MN. Hope this tracks more south!

Hoosier · December 10, 2022

Here's a trend gif of the GFS since 12z Friday. System is slower to occlude/weaken along with weaker confluence in Canada. This isn't what you want to see for a snowier solution farther south.

trend-gfs-2022121018-f090.prateptype_cat.conus.gif.0f87568a807d8f89abb6b55f2cd22c5f.gif

jaster220 · December 10, 2022

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Here's a trend gif of the GFS since 12z Friday. System is slower to occlude/weaken along with weaker confluence in Canada. This isn't what you want to see for a snowier solution farther south.

APX not at all enthusiastic. Not a good sign for The Mitt. Their CWA will usually pull snow out of just about anything and I've seen these front-end hits work out pretty good in years past if the antecedent airmass is bitter and stubborn to retreat. But we're working with some lame a** marginal temps. Going to say warm is the way to go unfortunately. 12-28-15 "SNeet" storm was a classic example of when the snowier outcome prevailed.

jaster220 · December 10, 2022

2 hours ago, james1976 said:

I'll be back in MN. Hope this tracks more south!

Even per that warmer GFS run MN looks gold. You don't need it more south really.

Hoosier · December 11, 2022

24 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

APX not at all enthusiastic. Not a good sign for The Mitt. Their CWA will usually pull snow out of just about anything and I've seen these front-end hits work out pretty good in years past if the antecedent airmass is bitter and stubborn to retreat. But we're working with some lame a** marginal temps. Going to say warm is the way to go unfortunately. 12-28-15 "SNeet" storm was a classic example of when the snowier outcome prevailed.

That 12/28/2015 storm was pretty impressive. Had barely any snow (maybe none) where I was but a ton of sleet. There was a really strong surface high in eastern Canada with that one iirc... I want to say at least 1045 mb and it just funneled that low level cold air in as the surface low approached. Then it eventually changed over to plain old heavy rain at my location and really turned the sleet into a heavy mess. Also memorable because my niece was born that day. Actually had another niece born during the Jan 2014 PV blitz, so maybe that is a sign to try to turn them into weather fanatics lol

For my area, that 2015-16 winter made the most of incredibly hostile background conditions... by that I mean that it wasn't just a strong Nino, but a super Nino. You knew going in that the deck was stacked against getting a real, sustained type of winter, so it was all about trying to luck into some storms. Between that December storm, the November storm and the storm in late February 2016, things def could've turned out worse in that regard.

jaster220 · December 11, 2022

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

That 12/28/2015 storm was pretty impressive. Had barely any snow (maybe none) where I was but a ton of sleet. There was a really strong surface high in eastern Canada with that one iirc... I want to say at least 1045 mb and it just funneled that low level cold air in as the surface low approached. Then it eventually changed over to plain old heavy rain at my location and really turned the sleet into a heavy mess. Also memorable because my niece was born that day. Actually had another niece born during the Jan 2014 PV blitz, so maybe that is a sign to try to turn them into weather fanatics lol

For my area, that 2015-16 winter made the most of incredibly hostile background conditions... by that I mean that it wasn't just a strong Nino, but a super Nino. You knew going in that the deck was stacked against getting a real, sustained type of winter, so it was all about trying to luck into some storms. Between that December storm, the November storm and the storm in late February 2016, things def could've turned out worse in that regard.

15-16, the stormy winter in a Nino that shoulda never happened. In Marshall I had two 1 FOOT snows missing a 3rd by just one county! Even more impressive cold timed to storms than 07-08. Now we can't buy that outcome.

Hoosier · December 11, 2022

28 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

15-16, the stormy winter in a Nino that shoulda never happened. In Marshall I had two 1 FOOT snows missing a 3rd by just one county! Even more impressive cold timed to storms than 07-08. Now we can't buy that outcome.

The thing about strong Ninos in the Lakes is that there is not as much of a dry signal as there is in weaker Ninos. Some strong Nino winters have even been wetter than average in the Lakes. I think it may be because the STJ tends to be so amped overall in those.

Regarding that Dec 2015 storm, it's almost a miracle that something like that managed to happen. That month was an inferno relative to average.

CentralNebWeather · December 11, 2022

12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

If only this wasn't the NAM...

I know, gives my county 8”.

jaster220 · December 11, 2022

Bismark. Again. I love it!!!

bud2380 · December 11, 2022

Wrap around crumbs on the GFS produce about an inch of snow in eastern Iowa, which will at least perhaps make it feel Christmas-like.

prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

Hoosier · December 11, 2022

43 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Wrap around crumbs on the GFS produce about an inch of snow in eastern Iowa, which will at least perhaps make it feel Christmas-like.

Sort of a new evolution on that run, with a second formidable surface low developing around the Lakes.

Madtown · December 11, 2022

Dreamers can dream....12-15" over 3.5 days, yes please.

Tom · December 11, 2022

Looks like the models are jumping on the idea the EPS was showing from 2 nights ago during the 12/10 0z run and blossoming a secondary wave for the GL's region. It appears the ULL is going to pull up a secondary wave up from the Gulf States. Iirc, this storm is similar to one of the Beasts we saw last year or the year before. I can't remember what month it was but I recall a secondary wave that dumped quite a bit of wrap around from the strong vertically stacked ULL spinning over the Lakes. I like the trends.

On a side note, it will be the aftermath of this Blizzard, that will shift the overall U.S. pattern into an all out Winter regime. The "North American Glacier" will be intact and bleed south in due time...

Tom · December 11, 2022

0z EPS still showing a lot of Snow for parts of the GL's and a solid signal for the SE Flow over Lake Superior that'll DUMP LEHS into the Arrowhead of MN... @Madtown @gimmesnow @Up_north_MI

@hawkstwelvelooking a bit better...

james1976 · December 11, 2022

MPX already talking maybe 3-6" for the metro thu-fri and also mentioning the arctic outbreak leading up to Christmas.

CentralNebWeather · December 11, 2022

Only positive for us in this area is the potential for 1” of rain or more. Snow looks minimal, with all models bringing the low over my head. Snow could be heavy just 50 miles northwest of me, imagine that. If we don’t get any snow with these systems, the cold won’t be as intense. Hopefully we can get a few inches in the next week, but around here you assume nothing. It just seems this year the rich keep getting richer.

sholomar · December 11, 2022

I'm in Brookings SD so I'm very much rooting for the models that bring more snow to the eastern part of the state. The NOAA is still saying maybe 2 inches and mostly freezing rain.

james1976 · December 11, 2022

@hawkstwelveyup I'll be back in MN tomorrow night! I like the trends. See what the Euro has to say.

james1976 · December 11, 2022

Pretty much all of the Dakotas with a foot+. And a good part of MN and WI. Widespread storm.

Tom · December 11, 2022

39 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Still improving with slight increases over 12z for almost all of MN.

That's just cruel for your area! Yikes...

Tom · December 11, 2022

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

I know right?! Not really sure what's going on with some models showing a snow hole over my area with much higher totals practically all around it. But I'm hoping it doesn't work out exactly like that.

These powerhouse storms have a mind of their own and I suspect to see surprises. The wrap around could be better than what the models are showing, esp with these meso scale events. I think you'll at least score a few inches, maybe 6"+ if the SLP can skirt just SE of your area. The models continue to show a tightly wrapped signature around the SLP, sorta like a Tropical system, indicating the strength of this storm. Going to be fun seeing this beast evolve.

The local mets here are getting hyped up for the 1st major winter storm of the season.

12z EPS...upping the ante up in the GL's...

jaster220 · December 11, 2022

15 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Sort of a new evolution on that run, with a second formidable surface low developing around the Lakes.

Yeah, and squashes all later action way south taking that pre-Christmas system off the table for our area.

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Looks like the models are jumping on the idea the EPS was showing from 2 nights ago during the 12/10 0z run and blossoming a secondary wave for the GL's region. It appears the ULL is going to pull up a secondary wave up from the Gulf States. Iirc, this storm is similar to one of the Beasts we saw last year or the year before. I can't remember what month it was but I recall a secondary wave that dumped quite a bit of wrap around from the strong vertically stacked ULL spinning over the Lakes. I like the trends.

On a side note, it will be the aftermath of this Blizzard, that will shift the overall U.S. pattern into an all out Winter regime. The "North American Glacier" will be intact and bleed south in due time...

" I can't remember what month it was but I recall a secondary wave that dumped quite a bit of wrap around from the strong vertically stacked ULL spinning over the Lakes."

I believe it was the storm that sat and did a spin dumping on MN, then brought decent LES to WMI 12/30-31, 2019

jaster220 · December 11, 2022

Sigh. Time to go live vicariously off of other CWA's AFDs in places that actually get snow in Dec.

gabel23 · December 11, 2022

And the blizzard warnings have already started. I’m gonna guess there will be an expensive area that will be under a blizzard warnings. Oh how I wish this storm could have been about 100 miles south and east.

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
230 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022

NEZ004-094-120430-
/O.UPG.KLBF.WS.A.0004.221213T0600Z-221215T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLBF.BZ.W.0001.221213T0600Z-221215T1200Z/
Sheridan-Western Cherry-
Including the cities of Gordon, Rushville, Cody, Eli, Merriman,
and Kilgore
130 PM MST Sun Dec 11 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  10 to 18 inches with locally higher amounts and ice
  accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as
  high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Sheridan and Western Cherry Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM Monday to 5 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will very difficult to impossible. Widespread
  blowing snow will lead to whiteout conditions. Expect dangerous
  driving conditions with zero to near zero visibility. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches and lead to possible power
  outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CentralNebWeather · December 11, 2022

7 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

And the blizzard warnings have already started. I’m gonna guess there will be an expensive area that will be under a blizzard warnings. Oh how I wish this storm could have been about 100 miles south and east.

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
230 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022

NEZ004-094-120430-
/O.UPG.KLBF.WS.A.0004.221213T0600Z-221215T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLBF.BZ.W.0001.221213T0600Z-221215T1200Z/
Sheridan-Western Cherry-
Including the cities of Gordon, Rushville, Cody, Eli, Merriman,
and Kilgore
130 PM MST Sun Dec 11 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  10 to 18 inches with locally higher amounts and ice
  accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as
  high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Sheridan and Western Cherry Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM Monday to 5 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will very difficult to impossible. Widespread
  blowing snow will lead to whiteout conditions. Expect dangerous
  driving conditions with zero to near zero visibility. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches and lead to possible power
  outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Yep. Winter Storm Watch 2 counties northwest of me. So close, yet so far away.

Clinton · December 11, 2022

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Still improving with slight increases over 12z for almost all of MN.

Looks like the 18z keeps trending a little further south, gives ya another bump in totals.

Tom · December 12, 2022

I was awakened by the rain drops falling down on the tile roofs and water falling off onto the concrete. Out here, there are no gutters to collect the water. The powerful CF is making its way through the valley and the winds are cranking. Nice heavy embedded storms along the front about to hit Sky Harbor.

Tom · December 12, 2022

11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Winter Weather Advisory issued for my area from 12PM today through 12PM tomorrow. Calling for up to 0.25 of ice and an inch of snow with wind gusts to 40 mph. Also expecting to get around an inch or more of rain. Going to be a whole lotta water around with that and snow melt over the next couple days.

Still looking like anything that falls starting Wednesday morning will be snow with Wed/Thurs being our best bet at scoring a few inches. Some models are showing up to 6 inches or so. My current thinking is between 3-5 inches. We shall see what happens.

Good luck bud! The NAM is interesting for YBY...might be picking up on the smaller features of this Beast of a storm...

0z UKIE not bad...

sn10_acc.us_nc.png

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Tom · December 12, 2022

06z RGEM is showing what I was referring to the other day where we saw a similar GL's storm some years ago that had a very similar set up. Notice the slug of moisture coming up from the Gulf states as a potent wave explodes and gets thrown back into the cold sector. @Madtownthis is eye candy for you...and possibly some of the MN members depending on how this evolves.

Madtown · December 12, 2022

Just wishing this was tomorrow not pushed out to Thurs

Tom · December 12, 2022

Sunrise Ski Resort mountain cam as the daylight begins to emerge...it's located in the White Mountains about 200 miles to me East...

https://www.sunrise.ski/winter/trails-and-camera/

tStacsh · December 12, 2022

All i can hope for is a good set up on the back side with lake effect. Normal for here these days.

sholomar · December 12, 2022

There's a bubble of cold air that's been hanging around SE SD from the dumping of snow we got a few days back that I hope helps us out. Granted that won't help with mid level warm air melting the snow, but it's great to see the snow totals trending upward regardless.

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/20221208-WinterSystem-CWA

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/winter

They now have us getting 3 inches on the low end, 8 inches there's a 10% chance, along with .28" of ice in Brookings.

Edited December 12, 2022 by sholomar
keloland graphics

Bryan1117 · December 12, 2022

20 minutes ago, sholomar said:

There's a bubble of cold air that's been hanging around SE SD from the dumping of snow we got a few days back that I hope helps us out. Granted that won't help with mid level warm air melting the snow, but it's great to see the snow totals trending upward regardless.

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/20221208-WinterSystem-CWA

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/winter

They now have us getting 3 inches on the low end, 8 inches there's a 10% chance, along with .28" of ice in Brookings.

Wow, what a beast of a storm for areas out west in Nebraska and South Dakota.. really hoping that this storm will cycle around next time for us posters to the east.

Looking forward to getting some much-needed rain tonight and tomorrow, and maybe a little bit of wrap around snow later this week in Eastern Nebraska.

james1976 · December 12, 2022

GFS and CMC are looking a bit weaker for the TC metro. I think the low is tracking more north so the wraparound is a bit north.

Madtown · December 12, 2022

All models showing a nice snow event over this way, but just nervous as it seems to be not your normal storm and guessing we are gonna have 5 more changes between now and Thurs

Madtown · December 12, 2022

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Total snow for this system, per 12z Euro...

Got a close up of the great lakes 12?

james1976 · December 12, 2022

Not happy with models trending weaker around the TC but 6+ is still solid. Got a couple days yet for that to change.

Tom · December 12, 2022

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

You bet!

The Euro just did what the RGEM was showing and bring a huge slug of GOM moisture into the cold sector. In fact, the 12z EPS just upped totals for the Northwoods of Wisco/MN and the Yoopers!

12/12 - 12/16 Upper MW Blizzard

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