12/12 - 12/16 Upper MW Blizzard

[Tom]

A powerhouse storm will develop across the majority of our SUB on Monday (right over @CentralNebWeather @hawkstwelve) and reach peak intensity sometime late on Tuesday where it will begin to occlude as it SLOWLY migrates East into the Lower Lakes region.  It appears the models have digested the blocking pattern and slowed down the progression of this system and it will take a few days before it exits the SUB.  This system will pack quite the punch as a multi-day, multifaceted storm system takes over the central U.S.  Who will get Feet of Snow?  Who gets the Severe storms?  Let's discuss...

0z EURO...nice signal showing up for wrap-around Snows...might even be some lake effect in parts of SE WI...

 

 

[Tom]

0z EPS suggesting the ULL system to dump SN across the GL's....these vertically stacked closed ULL's tend to have a unique character so we'll have to monitor how this all ends up.  Could throw some surprises up here....

[Clinton]

look at the moisture this storm will spread across the SUB.

[hawkstwelve]

There was a point not too long ago when all models and their ensembles were showing substantial snowfall here with this storm. Now it's looking more likely that we get .5-1 inch of rain before any sort of possible switchover. 

A bunch of rain on our newly fallen, beautiful snow. Fantastic.

[Clinton]

6z EC doesn't get the whole thing but looks to spread a coating of snow across the northern US.

[Tom]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

look at the moisture this storm will spread across the SUB.

This should get the barge traffic to kick up a notch on the Good ol' Mississippi River...

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings with their thoughts on storm track

 I don`t expect much of a shift in the storm track given the tight clustering of the model ensemble members, but it will take a southward shift for us to see any kind of noteworthy snow. If we are going to see any kind of appreciable storm track shift it would probably need to show up in the models by tonight or the odds of it happening will really lower as we get progressively closer to the event.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Hastings with their thoughts on storm track

 I don`t expect much of a shift in the storm track given the tight clustering of the model ensemble members, but it will take a southward shift for us to see any kind of noteworthy snow. If we are going to see any kind of appreciable storm track shift it would probably need to show up in the models by tonight or the odds of it happening will really lower as we get progressively closer to the event.

Just as unlikely is mby seeing even a flake from this in spite of more rosy snow maps. Uggh! So tired of fake Op model snow. N of Detroit perhaps 1 or 2" before rain I could see that perhaps.

[Niko]

This will be a fun, interesting storm to track. I'm very curious to see how all this will play out.

[Hoosier]

38 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Just as unlikely is mby seeing even a flake from this in spite of more rosy snow maps. Uggh! So tired of fake Op model snow. N of Detroit perhaps 1 or 2" before rain I could see that perhaps.

Even in a worst case scenario, you should see flakes on the backside.

For front end snow, hope for a quicker occlusion out in the Plains.  That would mute the surge of warmth in the Lakes.

[hawkstwelve]

The storm entered the PNW today so the models should get a bit more data input. Hopefully that means tonight's and tomorrow's runs will start converging on a solution. A better solution.

[Clinton]

12z Euro looks better this run @hawkstwelve and some Mich peeps

GFS better also

[Niko]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro looks better this run @hawkstwelve and some Mich peeps

GFS better also

I'll take 6" from the GFS and run. No questions asked!!!!!

[hawkstwelve]

58 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro looks better this run @hawkstwelve and some Mich peeps

GFS better also

It shows us getting hit with the stronger NW side of the low around Wednesday night. Went from 2 inches on the 00z to 6 inches on the 12z. Hope that continues.

[james1976]

I'll be back in MN. Hope this tracks more south!

[Hoosier]

Here's a trend gif of the GFS since 12z Friday.  System is slower to occlude/weaken along with weaker confluence in Canada.  This isn't what you want to see for a snowier solution farther south.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Here's a trend gif of the GFS since 12z Friday.  System is slower to occlude/weaken along with weaker confluence in Canada.  This isn't what you want to see for a snowier solution farther south.

APX not at all enthusiastic. Not a good sign for The Mitt. Their CWA will usually pull snow out of just about anything and I've seen these front-end hits work out pretty good in years past if the antecedent airmass is bitter and stubborn to retreat. But we're working with some lame a** marginal temps. Going to say warm is the way to go unfortunately. 12-28-15 "SNeet" storm was a classic example of when the snowier outcome prevailed.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, james1976 said:

I'll be back in MN. Hope this tracks more south!

Even per that warmer GFS run MN looks gold. You don't need it more south really.

[Hoosier]

24 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

APX not at all enthusiastic. Not a good sign for The Mitt. Their CWA will usually pull snow out of just about anything and I've seen these front-end hits work out pretty good in years past if the antecedent airmass is bitter and stubborn to retreat. But we're working with some lame a** marginal temps. Going to say warm is the way to go unfortunately. 12-28-15 "SNeet" storm was a classic example of when the snowier outcome prevailed.

That 12/28/2015 storm was pretty impressive.  Had barely any snow (maybe none) where I was but a ton of sleet.  There was a really strong surface high in eastern Canada with that one iirc... I want to say at least 1045 mb and it just funneled that low level cold air in as the surface low approached.  Then it eventually changed over to plain old heavy rain at my location and really turned the sleet into a heavy mess.  Also memorable because my niece was born that day.  Actually had another niece born during the Jan 2014 PV blitz, so maybe that is a sign to try to turn them into weather fanatics lol

For my area, that 2015-16 winter made the most of incredibly hostile background conditions... by that I mean that it wasn't just a strong Nino, but a super Nino.  You knew going in that the deck was stacked against getting a real, sustained type of winter, so it was all about trying to luck into some storms.  Between that December storm, the November storm and the storm in late February 2016, things def could've turned out worse in that regard.

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

That 12/28/2015 storm was pretty impressive.  Had barely any snow (maybe none) where I was but a ton of sleet.  There was a really strong surface high in eastern Canada with that one iirc... I want to say at least 1045 mb and it just funneled that low level cold air in as the surface low approached.  Then it eventually changed over to plain old heavy rain at my location and really turned the sleet into a heavy mess.  Also memorable because my niece was born that day.  Actually had another niece born during the Jan 2014 PV blitz, so maybe that is a sign to try to turn them into weather fanatics lol

For my area, that 2015-16 winter made the most of incredibly hostile background conditions... by that I mean that it wasn't just a strong Nino, but a super Nino.  You knew going in that the deck was stacked against getting a real, sustained type of winter, so it was all about trying to luck into some storms.  Between that December storm, the November storm and the storm in late February 2016, things def could've turned out worse in that regard.

 

15-16, the stormy winter in a Nino that shoulda never happened. In Marshall I had two 1 FOOT snows missing a 3rd by just one county! Even more impressive cold timed to storms than 07-08. Now we can't buy that outcome.

[Hoosier]

28 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

15-16, the stormy winter in a Nino that shoulda never happened. In Marshall I had two 1 FOOT snows missing a 3rd by just one county! Even more impressive cold timed to storms than 07-08. Now we can't buy that outcome.

The thing about strong Ninos in the Lakes is that there is not as much of a dry signal as there is in weaker Ninos.  Some strong Nino winters have even been wetter than average in the Lakes.  I think it may be because the STJ tends to be so amped overall in those.

Regarding that Dec 2015 storm, it's almost a miracle that something like that managed to happen.  That month was an inferno relative to average. 

 

[hawkstwelve]

If only this wasn't the NAM...

[CentralNebWeather]

12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

If only this wasn't the NAM...

I know, gives my county 8”. 

[jaster220]

 Bismark. Again. I love it!!! 

[bud2380]

Wrap around crumbs on the GFS produce about an inch of snow in eastern Iowa, which will at least perhaps make it feel Christmas-like.  

 

[Hoosier]

43 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Wrap around crumbs on the GFS produce about an inch of snow in eastern Iowa, which will at least perhaps make it feel Christmas-like.  

 

Sort of a new evolution on that run, with a second formidable surface low developing around the Lakes.

[hawkstwelve]

Pretty large increase for @james1976and other MN peeps on the 00z GFS. WI and W MI also do much better. All due to that stronger low mentioned above.

So close yet so far for SE SD and adjacent areas. A few inches ain't bad though. Will help renew what the rain will undoubtedly wash away.

[Madtown]

Dreamers can dream....12-15" over 3.5 days, yes please.

[hawkstwelve]

00z Euro follows in the GFS footsteps and now holds a low over the N GL region instead of punting it out to New England. More snow for MN and parts of WI.

Interesting...

[Tom]

Looks like the models are jumping on the idea the EPS was showing from 2 nights ago during the 12/10 0z run and blossoming a secondary wave for the GL's region.  It appears the ULL is going to pull up a secondary wave up from the Gulf States.  Iirc, this storm is similar to one of the Beasts we saw last year or the year before.  I can't remember what month it was but I recall a secondary wave that dumped quite a bit of wrap around from the strong vertically stacked ULL spinning over the Lakes.  I like the trends.

On a side note, it will be the aftermath of this Blizzard, that will shift the overall U.S. pattern into an all out Winter regime.  The "North American Glacier" will be intact and bleed south in due time...

[Tom]

0z EPS still showing a lot of Snow for parts of the GL's and a solid signal for the SE Flow over Lake Superior that'll DUMP LEHS into the Arrowhead of MN... @Madtown @gimmesnow @Up_north_MI

 

@hawkstwelvelooking a bit better...

[james1976]

MPX already talking maybe 3-6" for the metro thu-fri and also mentioning the arctic outbreak leading up to Christmas. 

[hawkstwelve]

Not crazy about the icing being shown on some of the mesoscale models. Really hope we can avoid a significant ice storm.

[CentralNebWeather]

Only positive for us in this area is the potential for 1” of rain or more. Snow looks minimal, with all models bringing the low over my head. Snow could be heavy just 50 miles northwest of me, imagine that. If we don’t get any snow with these systems, the cold won’t be as intense.  Hopefully we can get a few inches in the next week, but around here you assume nothing. It just seems this year the rich keep getting richer. 

[hawkstwelve]

Definitely looking like SE SD's best bet at accumulating snow is with the deformation band on the west side of the low as it starts to scoot off to the east on Wed/Thurs. 12z runs of both the GFS and GEM were stronger with that feature than previous runs. Those types of signatures can be very hard for the models to accurately predict. Hope it leads to a nice surprise.

[hawkstwelve]

Winter storm watches to my west, north, and east spanning seven different states.

Might not have worked out as ideally as it once looked IMBY but regardless, still a pretty sizable and impactful winter storm.

[hawkstwelve]

Although maybe I shouldn't write this thing off just yet.

12z GEM came in with a snowier solution, doubling totals over 00z for SE SD and showing some more for N IA/S MN as well.

12z GFS was also snowier for FSD and look at those totals showing over MN now! This has definitely trended much nicer for that area down the home stretch with that secondary, stronger low hanging around. Hopefully @james1976 is up in MN for this one.

Edit: I just realized I posted almost this same map above already. Blame lack of coffee and distractions with family holiday party.

[sholomar]

I'm in Brookings SD so I'm very much rooting for the models that bring more snow to the eastern part of the state. The NOAA is still saying maybe 2 inches and mostly freezing rain.

[james1976]

@hawkstwelveyup I'll be back in MN tomorrow night! I like the trends. See what the Euro has to say.

[james1976]

Pretty much all of the Dakotas with a foot+. And a good part of MN and WI. Widespread storm.

[hawkstwelve]

1 minute ago, james1976 said:

@hawkstwelveyup I'll be back in MN tomorrow night! I like the trends. See what the Euro has to say.

Still improving with slight increases over 12z for almost all of MN.

[Tom]

39 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Still improving with slight increases over 12z for almost all of MN.

That's just cruel for your area!  Yikes...

[hawkstwelve]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

That's just cruel for your area!  Yikes...

I know right?! Not really sure what's going on with some models showing a snow hole over my area with much higher totals practically all around it. But I'm hoping it doesn't work out exactly like that. 

[Tom]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

I know right?! Not really sure what's going on with some models showing a snow hole over my area with much higher totals practically all around it. But I'm hoping it doesn't work out exactly like that. 

These powerhouse storms have a mind of their own and I suspect to see surprises.  The wrap around could be better than what the models are showing, esp with these meso scale events.  I think you'll at least score a few inches, maybe 6"+ if the SLP can skirt just SE of your area.  The models continue to show a tightly wrapped signature around the SLP, sorta like a Tropical system, indicating the strength of this storm.  Going to be fun seeing this beast evolve.

The local mets here are getting hyped up for the 1st major winter storm of the season.

12z EPS...upping the ante up in the GL's...

 

[jaster220]

15 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Sort of a new evolution on that run, with a second formidable surface low developing around the Lakes.

Yeah, and squashes all later action way south taking that pre-Christmas system off the table for our area.  

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Looks like the models are jumping on the idea the EPS was showing from 2 nights ago during the 12/10 0z run and blossoming a secondary wave for the GL's region.  It appears the ULL is going to pull up a secondary wave up from the Gulf States.  Iirc, this storm is similar to one of the Beasts we saw last year or the year before.  I can't remember what month it was but I recall a secondary wave that dumped quite a bit of wrap around from the strong vertically stacked ULL spinning over the Lakes.  I like the trends.

On a side note, it will be the aftermath of this Blizzard, that will shift the overall U.S. pattern into an all out Winter regime.  The "North American Glacier" will be intact and bleed south in due time...

" I can't remember what month it was but I recall a secondary wave that dumped quite a bit of wrap around from the strong vertically stacked ULL spinning over the Lakes." 

I believe it was the storm that sat and did a spin dumping on MN, then brought decent LES to WMI 12/30-31, 2019

[jaster220]

Sigh. Time to go live vicariously off of other CWA's AFDs in places that actually get snow in Dec. 

[gabel23]

And the blizzard warnings have already started. I’m gonna guess there will be an expensive area that will be under a blizzard warnings. Oh how I wish this storm could have been about 100 miles south and east. 

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
230 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022

NEZ004-094-120430-
/O.UPG.KLBF.WS.A.0004.221213T0600Z-221215T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLBF.BZ.W.0001.221213T0600Z-221215T1200Z/
Sheridan-Western Cherry-
Including the cities of Gordon, Rushville, Cody, Eli, Merriman,
and Kilgore
130 PM MST Sun Dec 11 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  10 to 18 inches with locally higher amounts and ice
  accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as
  high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Sheridan and Western Cherry Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM Monday to 5 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will very difficult to impossible. Widespread
  blowing snow will lead to whiteout conditions. Expect dangerous
  driving conditions with zero to near zero visibility. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches and lead to possible power
  outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

7 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

And the blizzard warnings have already started. I’m gonna guess there will be an expensive area that will be under a blizzard warnings. Oh how I wish this storm could have been about 100 miles south and east. 

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
230 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022

NEZ004-094-120430-
/O.UPG.KLBF.WS.A.0004.221213T0600Z-221215T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLBF.BZ.W.0001.221213T0600Z-221215T1200Z/
Sheridan-Western Cherry-
Including the cities of Gordon, Rushville, Cody, Eli, Merriman,
and Kilgore
130 PM MST Sun Dec 11 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  10 to 18 inches with locally higher amounts and ice
  accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as
  high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Sheridan and Western Cherry Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM Monday to 5 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will very difficult to impossible. Widespread
  blowing snow will lead to whiteout conditions. Expect dangerous
  driving conditions with zero to near zero visibility. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches and lead to possible power
  outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

 

Yep. Winter Storm Watch 2 counties northwest of me. So close, yet so far away. 

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Still improving with slight increases over 12z for almost all of MN.

Looks like the 18z keeps trending a little further south, gives ya another bump in totals.

[Tom]

I was awakened by the rain drops falling down on the tile roofs and water falling off onto the concrete.  Out here, there are no gutters to collect the water.  The powerful CF is making its way through the valley and the winds are cranking.  Nice heavy embedded storms along the front about to hit Sky Harbor.