Front Ranger Posted August 18, 2017 Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 Just window AC in bedroom/ kitchen? Central A/C is unnecessarily costly/ impractical in favor of ductless systems. Bedroom, yeah. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 18, 2017 Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 18, 2017 Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 Bedroom, yeah.Gross. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 18, 2017 Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 New winter hot take fresh off the presses! Joe Bastardi showed the ECMWF seasonal from August to December, and it has large troughing for December cutting into the west coast. It almost seems like December would be the month for us to score, and Jan Feb would be warmer? The ECMWF seasonal DJF shows warmer and wetter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 SEA managed to get up to 71 today. There has not been a high temperature at SEA below 70 since June 28th. Except for the week of smoke and heat... this has been just about as perfect as it gets in the summer here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 It's been a delightful week. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Warmest second week of September on record? IMO it's hard to envision a scenario without another heatwave for the PNW, given the massive burst of off-equator WPAC convection upcoming. Those waters are on absolute fire..up to 95*F over a large swath of the northern IPWP domain. The heat is done once the MJO leaves the WPAC in late September, though. From there, the departure of the MJO will only assist in collapsing the EHEM monsoonal engine and develop the Siberian High. I wonder what sort of forcing birthed the September 1988 heat wave? +28C at 850 and 105 at the surface in September... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 I wonder what sort of forcing birthed the September 1988 heat wave? +28C at 850 and 105 at the surface in September...Good question. My hunch is that it was a WPAC MJO over an enhanced warm pool and strong EASM, but I'll have to check just to be sure. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Good question. My hunch is that it was a WPAC MJO over an enhanced warm pool and strong EASM, but I'll have to check just to be sure. We were in moderate Nina territory (MEI around -1.5) so it would make sense that warmer waters were present in the WPAC. That's about all I can say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 We were in moderate Nina territory (MEI around -1.5) so it would make sense that warmer waters were present in the WPAC. That's about all I can say. What dates was the heatwave centered? I'm going to check the VP200 anomalies to check if an MJO was the cause. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Regarding the WPAC warm pool - PNW heat wave connection, it's interesting to note that two of the greatest September heat waves on record along the West coast occurred during significant -ENSO events (1955 and 1988), when warmer than average waters were present in the western Pacific. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 What dates was the heatwave centered? I'm going to check the VP200 anomalies to check if an MJO was the cause. September 1-3rd, peak on the 2nd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Regarding the WPAC warm pool - PNW heat wave connection, it's interesting to note that two of the greatest September heat waves on record along the West coast occurred during significant -ENSO events (1955 and 1988), when warmer than average waters were present in the western Pacific.Indeed, especially by the standards of that cooler climate era. there was a very enhanced/poleward-shifted WPAC warm pool during September 1988. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F56C2D6C-10CC-4165-96CB-7472FF916754_zpsan4n9djc.png 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 September 1-3rd, peak on the 2nd.Hmm, interesting. In that case it wasn't a warm pool MJO since the convection was centered over the IO at the time and was in wavenumber one mode. I'll check the predecessor streamfunction anomalies (proxy for Hadley Cell) and Eurasian AAM/UWD anomalies, and then hopefully will have a better answer. Could also be diabatic forcing instigating a retrograding cyclonic RWB cycle which fed back onto the tropical statics and ignited the western ridge and MJO later in the month. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Warmest second week of September on record? IMO it's hard to envision a scenario without another heatwave for the PNW, given the massive burst of off-equator WPAC convection upcoming. Those waters are on absolute fire..up to 95*F over a large swath of the northern IPWP domain. The heat is done once the MJO leaves the WPAC in late September, though. From there, the departure of the MJO will only assist in collapsing the EHEM monsoonal engine and develop the Siberian High.This is starting to feel like one of those things you overhype for weeks that ultimately ends up flopping (frigid June 2017!!!). At least that's what I'm hoping. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 The sun is red this evening in Klamath Falls. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Seems like as of late there have been quite a few signs that this winter could be another cold/snowy one for the PACNW. Warm fall would also point to that IMO. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Seems like as of late there have been quite a few signs that this winter could be another cold/snowy one for the PACNW. Warm fall would also point to that IMO.Not at all. Many of our best winters have had chilly falls. Octobers especially. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Not at all. Many of our best winters have had chilly falls. Octobers especially. This is true but there have also been a lot of great winters following warm falls as well, specifically warm Novembers. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 One, two, three, four I declare a fall war! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 This is true but there have also been a lot of great winters following warm falls as well, specifically warm Novembers.The November thing has many examples, so I can definitely see that one. As for autumns that are warm overall (every month), they don't have the best track record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 The November thing has many examples, so I can definitely see that one. As for autumns that are warm overall (every month), they don't have the best track record. Cool October and mild November is a decent combo, historically. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 The November thing has many examples, so I can definitely see that one. As for autumns that are warm overall (every month), they don't have the best track record. There's always a hail mary like 1988-89, but yeah most of our wall-to-wall warm falls have led to crap winters. That list is dominated by the likes of 1974-75, 1980-81, 1991-92, 1999-00, 2012-13 and 2014-15. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 00Z ECMWF shows PDX pushing 100 next Sunday (8/27) and 101 on Monday (8/28) at the end of the run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 One, two, three, four I declare a fall war!Five,six,seven,eight,who do we really love yet hate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 00Z ECMWF shows PDX pushing 100 next Sunday (8/27) and 101 on Monday (8/28) at the end of the run.It needs to quit pushing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 The November thing has many examples, so I can definitely see that one. As for autumns that are warm overall (every month), they don't have the best track record. Yeah I agree. But I'm talking about if you specifically average out the 3 months of fall and if that average ends up above average than it can be a good sign. Just last year or 2008 for example – Slightly warm Sept, slightly cool Oct, very warm Nov add the departures together together you still get a 3 month warm average. As others have mentioned, the clearest signal of all is a cool October and warm November but many of those years had a warm 3 month average. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Yeah I agree. But I'm talking about if you specially average out the 3 months of fall and if that average ends up above average than it can be a good sign. Just last year or 2008 for example – Slightly warm Sept, slightly cool Oct, very warm Nov add the departures together together you still get a 3 month warm average. As others have mentioned, the clearest signal of all is a cool October and warm November but many of those years had a warm 3 month average. 2008 was quite warm until mid-December for me. I remember thinking "Am I ever going to get snow this year?" while running comfortably around the block in the beginning of December. On another note, the temps have been normal or below normal today and yesterday. I also got heavy showers yesterday, it was almost pouring for a few minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 2008 was quite warm until mid-December for me. I remember thinking "Am I ever going to get snow this year?" while running comfortably around the block in the beginning of December. On another note, the temps have been normal or below normal today and yesterday. I also got heavy showers yesterday, it was almost pouring for a few minutes.October was well below average that year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Despite a (likely) warm September this year, I see a pretty notable pattern change to troughiness/-PNA during the final week of the month. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Yeah I agree. But I'm talking about if you specifically average out the 3 months of fall and if that average ends up above average than it can be a good sign. Just last year or 2008 for example – Slightly warm Sept, slightly cool Oct, very warm Nov add the departures together together you still get a 3 month warm average. As others have mentioned, the clearest signal of all is a cool October and warm November but many of those years had a warm 3 month average.Not sure if there is much of a signal either way there. But falls where all three months run warm aren't generally followed by great winters. Last year September was cool and October was slightly mild, for the record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 October was well below average that year.Not here in Abbotsford, the average high was about 58 and the average low was about 41. The average high was higher than the actual average high, but the average low was slightly colder than normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Not here in Abbotsford, the average high was about 58 and the average low was about 41. The average high was higher than the actual average high, but the average low was slightly colder than normal.You sure? Which station are you looking at. October 2008 at YXX, looks like -1.1F on both the high and the low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 You sure? Which station are you looking at. October 2008 at YXX, looks like -1.1F on both the high and the low.http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01%7C2012-06-21&dlyRange=1944-10-01%7C2012-06-20&mlyRange=1944-01-01%7C2012-06-01&StationID=702&Prov=BC&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=specDate&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2017&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&Month=10&Day=18&txtStationName=Abbotsford&timeframe=2&Year=2008 http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/results_1981_2010_e.html?searchType=stnName&txtStationName=Abbotsford&searchMethod=contains&txtCentralLatMin=0&txtCentralLatSec=0&txtCentralLongMin=0&txtCentralLongSec=0&stnID=702&dispBack=1 The daily average temperature for October is 10.5C but the average high was 14.4C and the average low was 5.3C. I was also using some data for Abbotsford from TWN, so that might be where the problem lies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01%7C2012-06-21&dlyRange=1944-10-01%7C2012-06-20&mlyRange=1944-01-01%7C2012-06-01&StationID=702&Prov=BC&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=specDate&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2017&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&Month=10&Day=18&txtStationName=Abbotsford&timeframe=2&Year=2008 http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/results_1981_2010_e.html?searchType=stnName&txtStationName=Abbotsford&searchMethod=contains&txtCentralLatMin=0&txtCentralLatSec=0&txtCentralLongMin=0&txtCentralLongSec=0&stnID=702&dispBack=1 The daily average temperature for October is 10.5C but the average high was 14.4C and the average low was 5.3C. I was also using some data for Abbotsford from TWN, so that might be where the problem lies.Oh. Maybe TWN is different. Because the EC data shows an average October temp of 15.0/ 5.9C. Daily mean of 10.5C. So 2008 was -0.6C across the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 It's been a pretty average day today, not hot not cold with partly cloudy skies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 20, 2017 Report Share Posted August 20, 2017 Some (very) preliminary cold season analogs I'm looking at. Biased -ENSO/-QBO. Haven't factored in solar et al. The years in question are 1951/52, 1956/57, 1967/68, 1981/82, 1989/90, 1993/94, 2000/01, 2003/04, 2005/06, and 2012/13. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2BA6D3E5-ACEB-4924-A2B8-E5988849393E_zpskist1ddb.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/748F41CE-4757-4574-B6E3-AA31F1182812_zpsijtmwmgt.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F156246D-F9D7-4388-AB22-EA52EA2AD5AF_zpsk7wsw6du.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A3EDA95B-5655-4A63-A3DB-DD778883F5F0_zpsdniqidr4.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/38215076-C7C0-4B4B-A3C2-E7D5C34B1D17_zpsidcarmrr.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/19516978-3FE6-4839-9E76-CD8DD5B36ACF_zps0odlda3k.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BEF8D914-AA52-4E44-B985-316F4B86FACF_zpsrw3g4dye.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 20, 2017 Report Share Posted August 20, 2017 Will definitely refine this with time, but I'm getting mostly warm returns for autumn (October looks transitional) and a cooler than average D/J/F. The January blocking sticks out like a sore thumb, as well. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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