PNW December 2022 - Part II

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Wow. UKMET tripling down, Euro control looks better, ICON and GEM look better too.

With how far south that low on the ICON and GFS are I think we actually have a chance here

Question then becomes whether we get an overrunning monster like the GEM shows or slower moderation like the icon. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS is having none of this as well and it follows its operational run.  

I trust the icon over the gfs right now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS is having none of this as well and it follows its operational run.  

Will be curious to see the cme. But seriously, it’s no surprise to see the GEFS not diverging radically at day 3-4. It is based off the operational. Going to be really weird to see what happens with the euro. 

[fubario]

10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah a solution like the GEM keeps a more westward-based storm system over the eastern CONUS next week as it wraps the low back up near the Great Lakes region. A solution like the GFS makes it so the energy doesn't really get it's act together until it nears the East Coast at which point it wraps up into a strong low but only leads to fairly minor accumulations here.

I say we keep with our long-running theme of saying "SCREW EASTCOASTERS" and let's all score instead!

"West coast is the best coast" fr fr

[Nov1985]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I feel confident saying that weird lobe of subzero Fahrenheit temperatures for the north Sound is not happening.

Ya, that's -10°F to -12°F in north Seattle, Bellevue Everett. Exactly where the heavy snow depth band is. And Spokane smashing its all time low temp record by 8°. Seems a bit overdone but a useful signal.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS is having none of this as well and it follows its operational run.  

well...it is just 30 slightly crappier versions of the GFS itself. So if the GFS has this thing fundamentally wrong, GEFS isnt going to show anything different, methinks. Especially since we're so close to it now the higher resolution probably matters more and there's not enough time for different perturbations to work themselves through the progression (theory). idk

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Will be curious to see the cme. But seriously, it’s no surprise to see the GEFS not diverging radically at day 3-4. It is based off the operational. Going to be really weird to see what happens with the euro. 

Based on the 06Z runs of the Euro suite... I say the 12Z ECMWF is going all in on the GEM/UKMET solution.    Which is going back to what the ECMWF showed earlier this week.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Will be curious to see the cme. But seriously, it’s no surprise to see the GEFS not diverging radically at day 3-4. It is based off the operational. Going to be really weird to see what happens with the euro. 

my thoughts as well

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

well...it is just 30 slightly crappier versions of the GFS itself. So if the GFS has this thing fundamentally wrong, GEFS isnt going to show anything different, methinks. Especially since we're so close to it now the higher resolution probably matters more and there's not enough time for different perturbations to work themselves through the progression (theory). idk

30 slightly crappier versions... very true.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

@RentonHillTC @Meatyorologist y’all want to go to a bar on Tuesday night for a happy hour if this thing bust?

Edited December 16, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I trust the icon over the gfs right now. 

GEFS is definitely a little cooler than the operational. It’s probably laughable to even mention but the 12z GFS control run looks more in line with the colder models this morning.

[Mid Valley Duck]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS is having none of this as well and it follows its operational run.  

There is a small camp of members than drop below -8c, including the control. At day 5, there is 12.5c spread between the op and the control.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

There is a small camp of members than drop below -8c, including the control. At day 5, there is 12.5c spread between the op and the control.

Thank you for providing a more honest and nuanced view here. It’s important to note that even the GEFS has hints at what the other models are showing. It would be weird if it didn’t throw them a single bone, but that’s not the case.

[LowerGarfield]

21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm still pretty skeptical. The upper level pattern support is just so borderline.

Any snow for our non PNW tiger next week?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

I wonder what the hell that progression looks like on the Control with an arctic front coming through on the 22nd. Have we seen any timing like that on any runs before? Or if this is Portland maybe thats an overrunning system ?

That chart is for Portland so my guess is that dip in 850s represents colder air being pulled through the gorge as the overrunning system moves in.

[Nov1985]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Based on the 06Z runs of the Euro suite... I say the 12Z ECMWF is going all in on the GEM/UKMET solution.    Which is going back to what the ECMWF showed earlier this week.

Can the Euro have two positive trend runs in a row? (It's been a while)

[Brennan]

I think we should scrap all the models, and just make our own forecasts based off of surface data analysis, satellite imagery, and  hand written frontal boundaries! The governments are screwing with us, in one of the most outrageous conspiracies of all time… OF ALL TIME!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

Any snow for our non PNW tiger next week?

No one ever talks about it but he’s probably had twice the snow the Portland area has seen the last five years. Especially if you’re talking about the south and west metro.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM ensemble mean for next Wednesday... and comparison to 12Z GEFS at same time.

[Snownerd3000]

17 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z UKMET at the end of its run out to next Thu 4am.

wow this is a COLD run

[Guest hawkstwelve]

22 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

The 6z Control looks similar yeah? 

Kind of splits the difference between the two camps. 12z Euro will be very telling.

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Brennan said:

I think we should scrap all the models, and just make our own forecasts based off of surface data analysis, satellite imagery, and  hand written frontal boundaries! The governments are screwing with us, in one of the most outrageous conspiracies of all time… OF ALL TIME!

big weather is ******* us

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Brennan said:

I think we should scrap all the models, and just make our own forecasts based off of surface data analysis, satellite imagery, and  hand written frontal boundaries! The governments are screwing with us, in one of the most outrageous conspiracies of all time… OF ALL TIME!

Model riding is a very unhealthy epidemic. Really should be addressed by congress. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

No one ever talks about it but he’s probably had twice the snow the Portland area has seen the last five years. Especially if you’re talking about the south and west metro.

After 2016/2017 we've had a total of 21" of snow in 5 winters(after 18" in just 2016/17) Not really been doing that great compared to most of the region. I think if you go towards Beaverton/Hillsboro and then farther south they've had even less.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The UKMET has highs near 20 in the Seattle area next Wednesday. 28 at PDX, 30 at SLE, and 33 at EUG. 

It shows a lot of snow in the central and north Puget Sound region. Not a lot of low elevation snow in NW Oregon, but most of the precip falls on Tuesday along the arctic frontal boundary with temps from PDX to EUG in the 33-34 range. It shows 10" of snow up here, but only T-1" amounts for most of the valley, you can see it focuses most of the precip south towards Eugene where it is about 34-35 degrees, and into the Cascades. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The UKMET has highs near 20 in the Seattle area next Wednesday. 28 at PDX, 30 at SLE, and 33 at EUG. 

It shows a lot of snow in the central and north Puget Sound region. Not a lot of low elevation snow in NW Oregon, but most of the precip falls on Tuesday along the arctic frontal boundary with temps from PDX to EUG in the 33-34 range. It shows 10" of snow up here, but only T-1" amounts for most of the valley, you can see it focuses most of the precip south towards Eugene where it is about 34-35 degrees, and into the Cascades. 

Andrew please tell me you are enjoying living vicariously through the UKMET right now more than you ever will the actual event 

[thickhog]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

After 2016/2017 we've had a total of 21" of snow in 5 winters(after 18" in just 2016/17) Not really been doing that great compared to most of the region. I think if you go towards Beaverton/Hillsboro and then farther south they've had even less.

Hillsboro often does ok. Tigard-south has been rough.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

After 2016/2017 we've had a total of 21" of snow in 5 winters(after 18" in just 2016/17) Not really been doing that great compared to most of the region. I think if you go towards Beaverton/Hillsboro and then farther south they've had even less.

Yep it’s amazing how much the attitude of posters in certain areas can shape the perception of who is due to score and who isn’t.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Highs next Tuesday are well below freezing for the puget sound region and mid 30s in NW Oregon, though they would likely be midnight highs, I noticed the 4a temps were 1-2F warmer than the 4p temps. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Andrew please tell me you are enjoying living vicariously through the UKMET right now more than you ever will the actual event 

It’s true. My memory of today will be even fonder if it verifies. The tracking of the models will become a thing of lore. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

3 minutes ago, thickhog said:

Hillsboro often does ok. Tigard-south has been rough.

I lived in Tualatin from April 2019 to March 2022. I had more freezing rain accumulation than snow accumulation over that time period.

[The Blob]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I would not want to be forecasting for the public from Tuesday - Thursday of next week.   There is a significant threat of a major impact event... and also a chance that nothing happens.    I am leaning towards the former right now.   But if you sound the alarm bells and then the latter happens you look silly.    And vice versa.  

Too late, I already trolled PDX weather service the other day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

I lived in Tualatin from April 2019 to March 2022. I had more freezing rain accumulation than snow accumulation over that time period.

I think your current location did really well last December. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yep it’s amazing how much the attitude of posters in certain areas can shape the perception of who is due to score and who isn’t.

I have used up my credit but i will still take what i can get. The pattern over the weekend is never good here.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Now watch the Euro come in even warmer than the GFS and totally break our hearts/confuse the living crap out of us as to how we should feel about next week.

[bainbridgekid]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, November was decent but last few weeks not much precip around.

Have you been to Breck before? Great mountain, something for almost everyone.

This will be my first time skiing outside of WA/BC. I’m excited but definitely hope they can get a bit more fresh snow in the meantime. Either way it should be a lot of fun though. If you have any tips on fun things to do around Denver I’m all ears. I’ve never been.

[Mid Valley Duck]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think your current location did really well last December. 

It did! My in laws live in Albany and we were there for Christmas. They had 8". 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

RDPS looks pretty similar to the UKMET. Arctic front draped across NW Oregon at hour 84. 

[LowerGarfield]

17 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

No one ever talks about it but he’s probably had twice the snow the Portland area has seen the last five years. Especially if you’re talking about the south and west metro.

I certainly think you have a point. Since TWL did get like 7-10 inches last Dec and much of Portland missed out. 

[bainbridgekid]

Third straight UK run with a band of 6+ inches in a CZ North of Seattle Sunday night.