PSA:
The NWS always appreciates observations, especially detailed observations that everyone on here is capable of giving. That can be done thru Twitter, as they often set up a feed for that, or the mPing app. That can include final snowfall amounts, when the snow starts/stops, precip type, dew point, etc
This helps them with short term forecasts as well as future forecasts as they can learn from them. A few years ago they had a freezing rain advisory for Leavenworth, but I notified
Kind of hard to figure out why people are acting so shocked by the models staying hot. We had five days in the 90s down here just last May. I could see this being similar with maybe a higher peak.
Alright, so FWIW I’m now quite certain the GFS is wrong with how aggressively it phases that shortwave with ULL in the GOA. Not that it’s wrong in doing so, or wrong w/rt the downstream ridge, but very few of the GEFS members (and none of the GEPS members) are that aggressive with the phasing and deepening at that longitude. And those model suites are the only ones that have entertained the idea to begin with.
In the end, I think I like my original call from a week ago, with the second ridge prograding to near the west-coast but centered offshore, (technically a discontinuous retrogression of mean-period ridge axis) up until the pattern breaks after the ~ 25th.
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Posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth,
IOS Link:https://apps.apple.com/us/app/mping/id584383400 Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=edu.ou.cimms.mping&hl=en_US&gl=US&pli=1
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