PNW December 2022 - Part II

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If January, will be a Lower Mainland/Whatcom special. We don't get regionwide cold snaps in January anymore. Want one of those, must wait until February.

January 1996 redux! Book it! 

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sleet is a pretty tough profile to maintain away from the immediate gorge. Most soundings have a broad warm layer down to about 950mb by tomorrow evening over PDX. The exceptionally cold surface temps will help though. I’ve been somewhat envisioning the front end of the February 1996 transition event today for some reason…

I can't think of too many significant sleet events here in my lifetime. 1996 had some and then the February 2021 storm provided that little initial changeover on the 12th. In 2004 it was a very quick jump from snow to ZR outside of the gap wind areas. 

I believe that 12/31/1968 would be the biggest sleet event of the airport era in the metro area, which makes sense given the extreme low level temps. I think there was 2-4", with the higher amounts near the gorge of course. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Canadian guy said:

Are you still feeling pretty good about January? Looks pretty wet and active for the next couple of weeks…return to gulf of alaska ridging after? 

I think the first week or two is gonna be a continuation of the developing jet extension but I have a really hard time believing another buckle isn’t too far off. My gut still says something impactful next month is very much in the cards.

[RayRay]

how do you think going over the Snoqualmie pass will be at 930am on Friday?

 

[Kayla]

9 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

A halo...a snow bow is seen opposite the sun like a rainbow.

Ahh, I see.

[Brennan]

3 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Friday will be crazy up there buddy. Closest thing to 1996 we have had up there maybe.

I sure hope so! Up to 13*f at Noon. Coldest day I’ve ever experienced here. Might not break 15. Perfect sled day with a fire. 

[Slushy Inch]

Last two control runs. Interested to see mean.

[Deweydog]

Six degree drop in 18 minutes at Troutdale.

[Slushy Inch]

Ridging starts to retrograde into Alaska at the end. 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 25. Got down to 22 this morning and had a midnight high of 27. Also picked up a quarter of an inch of snow. Season total up to 14.25” now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Any bets on when we see our GOA ridge return?  GEFS has a ridge retrograding into GOA late January.  Latest weeklies look similar but wouldn't you know, just in time for Superbowl Sunday...

No doubt. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I can't think of too many significant sleet events here in my lifetime. 1996 had some and then the February 2021 storm provided that little initial changeover on the 12th. In 2004 it was a very quick jump from snow to ZR outside of the gap wind areas. 

I believe that 12/31/1968 would be the biggest sleet event of the airport era in the metro area, which makes sense given the extreme low level temps. I think there was 2-4", with the higher amounts near the gorge of course. 

We had about 1/2” of sleet on 12/20/08 in Silverton. That’s the most sleet I can remember. When I lived in Oklahoma in January 2007 we had about 4” of sleet. A lot of people got injured sledding on it. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, RayRay said:

how do you think going over the Snoqualmie pass will be at 930am on Friday?

 

Should still be good then... but it will be close.  

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Should still be good then... but it will be close.  

Scratch that... looks snowy up there at that time.

No idea why this 6-hour snow map now goes out to 2 decimal places.

[Hawksfan2008]

18 minutes ago, RayRay said:

how do you think going over the Snoqualmie pass will be at 930am on Friday?

 

I would be shocked if it’s open 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

I would be shocked if it’s open 

It will definitely be open at that time on Friday morning.    6 inches of snow is nothing up there and freezing rain will not have started yet.  

[The Blob]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Can you imagine if this thing approached the coast with the current high pressure we have here lol. 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

WOW nam is way dryer and shows a splitting system now.

[Hawksfan2008]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It will definitely be open at that time on Friday morning.    6 inches of snow is nothing up there and freezing rain will not have started yet.  

It’s not so much the pass up top as it is getting there. Will be very close. My guess is the pass gets shut down near North Bend sometime Friday morning. 

[MossMan]

Currently 18.8 degrees at nearly 12:30pm with about 8” of snow on the ground. Perfection!! 

[Front Ranger]

BLI should be in the single digits by late this afternoon.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

WOW nam is way dryer and shows a splitting system now.

How does the snow map look? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

BLI should be in the single digits by late this afternoon.

I don't think that has happened with outflow since 1990?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

How does the snow map look? 

Cant check right now

[Doinko]

43 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sleet is a pretty tough profile to maintain away from the immediate gorge. Most soundings have a broad warm layer down to about 950mb by tomorrow evening over PDX. The exceptionally cold surface temps will help though. I’ve been somewhat envisioning the front end of the February 1996 transition event today for some reason…

We had a lot of sleet in February 2021. It was interesting, the layers of sleet, ice and snow we had

[Phishy Wx]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Scratch that... looks snowy up there at that time.

No idea why this 6-hour snow map now goes out to 2 decimal places.

because it's probably translated from metric measurements 

[SouthHillFrosty]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

How does the snow map look? 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

48 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sleet is a pretty tough profile to maintain away from the immediate gorge. Most soundings have a broad warm layer down to about 950mb by tomorrow evening over PDX. The exceptionally cold surface temps will help though. I’ve been somewhat envisioning the front end of the February 1996 transition event today for some reason…

I got a lot of sleet in 2004 when I was living in Goose Hollow. Will have to check my notes but it was at least 4". Got sleet for many hours after just about everyone else was reporting freezing rain. In fact, I only got about .025" of glaze out of that event. My guess is that the nearby West Hills were lofting the outflow and creating a thicker cold layer in my area.

[Phishy Wx]

16 minutes ago, The Blob said:

the 'ol Chicken COOP making an appearance 

[Randyc321]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Scratch that... looks snowy up there at that time.

No idea why this 6-hour snow map now goes out to 2 decimal places.

Interesting.  So, sometime between 4 and 10 am, the Central/North Sound will still be seeing some snow.  When in the Central Sound is it supposed to change to ZR?  It must be early in the morning.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I don't think that has happened with outflow since 1990?

It happened last year but I believe it might have been after the outflow died down and allowed decoupling. Hoping to score a single-digit low tonight.

Up to 21°F so my hopes for a sub-20 high have been dashed .

[Kayla]

54 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We are going to get nailed again this winter, sometime between January 15th and the end of February, but my guess is the second half of January. 

What is the precedent of two major North America blasts in one season? Off the top of my head I can only think of 1962 and 1972/73.

[Hawksfan2008]

The NAM delays the precip but ends up wetter for Seattle 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Looking at the NWS forecast, they have precip starting as snow before changing to ZR.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

What is the precedent of two major North America blasts in one season? Off the top of my head I can only think of 1962 and 1972/73.

2006/07! (At least in my backyard) 

[FroYoBro]

44 minutes ago, Doinko said:

We had a lot of sleet in February 2021. It was interesting, the layers of sleet, ice and snow we had

Yeah, sleet was what we got the most of during February 2021 in Tigard. Never seen that much before. Started with snow and then we got a lot of sleet. Also ended with a good amount of freezing rain obviously, but not as much as places to the SE of here. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by FroYoBro

[Phishy Wx]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1214 PM PST Wed Dec 21 2022

WAZ043-044-220000-
Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-
1214 PM PST Wed Dec 21 2022

Strong north winds with gusts 35 to 45 mph are creating areas of
blowing and drifting snow. Reports of snow drifts across portions
of Highway 97 and State Route 172 have been reported with part of
State Route 172 closed as the road is impassible. Motorists are
strongly encouraged to check with the Department of Transportation
before traveling this afternoon across the Okanogan Valley and
Waterville Plateau. Winds will decrease with sunset, but remain
breezy through the evening with blowing and drifting snow still
possible.

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

2006/07! (At least in my backyard) 

Ha, I wouldn't call either of the blasts in 2006/07 historic for North America though! 

[Hawksfan2008]

How is there not at least a special weather statement out for this event? If you don’t post a WWA for a few inches of snow then fine, people will be okay. But for a potentially significant ice event people need a heads up to prepare.