PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Nice to see coming down the stretch the euro going our way by showing no snow but increasing ice totals. Another PDX special.

Brb going to perform some statistical acrobatics to prove that the Puget sound area is still more due for a widespread snow event than NW oregon 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows Portland well above freezing by early Saturday morning... not sure I believe that.

Always way too easy to scour us out on models-- never happens unless there's a strong southerly or westerly gradient. Which is a real concern as wetter systems continue to arrive over the weekend-- I could see west and central metro thawing while the hills and the east metro are a frozen hellscape. The Gorge is nonnegotiable-- it'll be impassable for days.

Edit/sidenote: blessed Mark Nelsen actually mentions this on his latest blog entry-- particularly taken from his past experiences with these setups 

[MossMan]

Sure wish that Thursday night storm was coming in at a different trajectory. A 1996 style overunner would have been awesome! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

15 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

Any chance some of the predicted freezing rain falls as snow instead?

Absolutely. 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO says upper 40s at PDX on Saturday, lets see how that works out. 

They haven’t been that warm since last fall.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mid-50s on Sunday for most of the valley. Low 50s for PDX and mid 40s in the Puget Sound. If PDX still has an east wind they won't top 45 though. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Sure wish that Thursday night storm was coming in at a different trajectory. A 1996 style overunner would have been awesome! 

Maybe we have some time for things to change

[Doinko]

Mark believes that the central/east metro will rise above freezing Saturday night. The Euro shows 0.6" of ice before we rise above freezing. If we were to assume that anything until Saturday afternoon would be frozen, that would be an additional 0.4" of ice in the east metro for a total of an inch of ice.

 

 

If Mark is right (probably), then all of this precip in the Portland Metro area should be frozen

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dewpoint now down to 10 at The Dalles. 

[joelgombiner]

Looks like some strait-effect snow near Port Angeles with the ripping NE winds blowing over the water. 

[The Blob]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

They haven’t been that warm since last fall.

You mean yesterday?

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But is warmer by early Friday afternoon compared to the 00Z run.  

This is the part I don't know if I trust. Not sure about ice accumulations but in my experience it takes longer to get rid of the last bit of low-level cold, especially for the East Puget Sound Lowlands and foothills. What are winds like at that time? If anything but S, I am a little incredulous. Any eastern winds bleeding in will extend and any straight western will dam the air. It's gotta be south to warm up so quickly.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

3 minutes ago, The Blob said:

You mean yesterday?

I'm sure he does. Astronomical winter starts today.

[Gummy]

21 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Nice to see coming down the stretch the euro going our way by showing no snow but increasing ice totals. Another PDX special.

Same in the central and south sound. Very little if any snow, pretty much straight to sleet and freezing rain.  The NWS mentioned a few inches of snow possible yesterday in the transition but that idea has now faded away.

Soon enough Portland and Seattle will be back in the groove doing what we do best, drizzle and rainfall. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

They haven’t been that warm since last fall.

At least they will beat 2005’s sub-50 stretch, possibly by several days assuming the mid range models are being over aggressive with the scouring this weekend.

[OysterPrintout]

Just now, Gummy said:

Same in the central and south sound. Very little if any snow, pretty much straight to sleet and freezing rain.  The NWS mentioned a few inches of snow possible yesterday in the transition but that idea has now faded away.

Soon enough Portland and Seattle will be back in the groove doing what we do best, drizzle and rainfall. 

Yeah actually was a way worse bust up there cause the expectations were much higher. We've been locked in to this meager transition event hoping for 1" of snow or at least for a total bust to limit freezing rain for a while now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What is shown for the south sound would be a disaster. Let's hope more of this sleet or snow.

[jakerepp]

Anyone got the Euro snowfall map through Saturday with Boise in focus for me?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Bonneville Dam switched to easterlies with their temp dropping from 37 to 32 between 9am and 10am. That’s 25 miles west of Hood River, who saw a wind shift about an hour earlier than that, so the leading edge of the cold air is truckin westward.

[Tyler Mode]

Just picked up an east wind...not much, but 5 mph.   Maybe it's happening early...models showed later this afternoon.

[xfkirsten]

Local news is starting to sound the alarm in Seattle:

 

[T-Town]

Still getting flurries with big fat flakes here. 

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Anyone got the Euro snowfall map through Saturday with Boise in focus for me?

Out to Day 8 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said:

Just picked up an east wind...not much, but 5 mph.   Maybe it's happening early...models showed later this afternoon.

Could be wrong in my thinking but I would hope the cold air being a little faster/more aggressive than modeled could bode well for a deeper cold layer over the metro area by tomorrow night. Maybe buy us some more time with snow or sleet instead of ice 

[Tyler Mode]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Could be wrong in my thinking but I would hope the cold air being a little faster/more aggressive than modeled could bode well for a deeper cold layer over the metro area by tomorrow night. Maybe buy us some more time with snow or sleet instead of ice 

Maybe areas near Forest Grove will be all snow?  It's really noticeable here...humidity down from 97 to 74.   Dewpoint 29.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Could be wrong in my thinking but I would hope the cold air being a little faster/more aggressive than modeled could bode well for a deeper cold layer over the metro area by tomorrow night. Maybe buy us some more time with snow or sleet instead of ice 

I'm hoping for a sub-28 high at PDX for the coldest since 2014. Maybe also a low below 20 to break our streak

[yellowstone]

Euro sleet map?  I’m team sleet for this storm. Less damaging than freezing rain and it makes that cool sound.

[Doinko]

The Euro shows a 975mb low quite close to our coast around the 29th

[PuyallupChris]

8 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Yeah actually was a way worse bust up there cause the expectations were much higher. We've been locked in to this meager transition event hoping for 1" of snow or at least for a total bust to limit freezing rain for a while now.

Definitely. Went from expectations of moderate snow, to getting nothing but a trace and then half an inch of ice forecast? Woof. Kind of a worst case scenario after all the model riding in the previous week. 

Not to discount PDX. Poor PDX has gotten the shaft repeatedly in the last few years. The South Sound has had it fairly rough also, at least in the Tacoma/Puyallup area where I am--even in the Feb 2019 storm the valley here got 1/2 to 1/3 the snow that everyone else did. Was disappointing for me to be at home with my toddlers looking at 3 inches while others had a foot!

[Perturbed Member]

12z Euro

I guess this dusting of snow is as good as its gonna get from the euro. The ZR even on the euro is now looking pretty high impact and this is even with what I believe is the euro warming us up too aggressively. If PDX does indeed manage to stay frozen into Saturday, these ice amounts may actually be significantly higher than even this since there is plenty more precip coming through that day that isn't included on the below maps.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

I'm hoping for a sub-28 high at PDX for the coldest since 2014. Maybe also a low below 20 to break our streak

Would be nice. I expect to see both in my location but as we know PDX can be really stubborn about performing when it comes to cold. One thing going for them is that outflow situations like this favor the airport’s location for cold more than most setups.

[awright-31]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What is shown for the south sound would be a disaster. Let's hope more of this sleet or snow.

Yeah, starting to get concerned. We’re 36 hrs or so from the start of this event. A half inch of ice will cause major issues. Hoping for a WSW today.

[Phishy Wx]

Partly Sunny and 9 with very fine light snow.

 

what does it take to get the ever elusive Snowbow?  anyone ever seen one?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Hey @MossMan, can you talk to the weather gods for us and get this freezing rain not to happen? It seems like u know somebody with all the snow u get

[MWG]

I guess we are skipping winter! 

[Christensen87]

Wonder why there’s no wind advisory posted for the EPSL. Is it not supposed to be as windy in the usual spots (North Bend, Enumclaw, etc) as the Portland area? 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's cold and crisp this morning, still steadily cooling and now down to 16.5F. Looks like it's clearing to our north

[Poulsbo Snowman]

This cold air is really dense.  Wouldn't be surprised to see snow hang on a while before the transition to disaster.  And if the snow hangs on, that means the warm up will be much slower, causing more ZR later.  

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

Partly Sunny and 9 with very fine light snow.

 

what does it take to get the ever elusive Snowbow?  anyone ever seen one?

Finally gets snowstorm along with arctic airmass with subzero temps they’ve been wanting all winter

Complains about lack of snowbows 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would be nice. I expect to see both in my location but as we know PDX can be really stubborn about performing when it comes to cold. One thing going for them is that outflow situations like this favor the airport’s location for cold more than most setups.

Gonna be pretty close. Midnight will be the deciding factor.