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PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

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2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

FWIW, SPC Mesoanaylsis has PDX 850 mb temps between -6c and -7c as of 2 PM

image.png.5977cddf692f181b0c2bdfcae520558f.png

The 12z ECMWF had the 850mb temps around -4.3c by now. 

image.thumb.png.e4a87c90057b098c1ae4b97ba596491e.png

Seems possible that the cold air advection aloft has been a bit better than expected. 

PDX might actually beat the 3pm number.

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1 minute ago, Ziess said:

I'm having a hard time believing this hole in Clackamas county gets no ZR, thoughts? 

image.png.46b282b64ca250f4cb95f1ef780c4861.jpeg

Warm nose. Also maybe downsloping drying out the precip at onset. I wouldn't trust the Hrrrr. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, umadbro said:

That isn’t uncommon. Happens quite often

All depends on if the warm push is at the upper levels or if the surface gradient switches. If the surface gradient switches to southerly in Clackamas county then sure, if the low level flow stays from the north than no. What the Hrrr is probably doing is translating the strong warm nose at the upper levels to the surface to aggressively. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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22 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My gut tells me it will be more snow than freezing rain. 

But if it plays out like shown people have no idea the hellstorm that is coming.

Oh, I DO and I'm not looking forward to it at all. Any accretion over .20" really exacerbates any already existing "issues".

Roads, trees, power infrastructure are F****ED if these amounts come to pass.

Anyone who thinks they'll be able to do anything is in store for a reality check. Don't even think about trying to get over the passes.

Ice does not discriminate. 

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3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

FWIW, SPC Mesoanaylsis has PDX 850 mb temps between -6c and -7c as of 2 PM

image.png.5977cddf692f181b0c2bdfcae520558f.png

The 12z ECMWF had the 850mb temps around -4.3c by now. 

image.thumb.png.e4a87c90057b098c1ae4b97ba596491e.png

Seems possible that the cold air advection aloft has been a bit better than expected. 

Good sign/catch!!

Definitely feels like the Euro has been playing some catch-up throughout with this recently and has underestimated the breadth of the overall airmass.

Every little ounce of cold depth helps a little with the transition tomorrow, even if the WAA timing is more or less being handled accurately.

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't feel like 1/3-1/2" of ice will cause the amount of power outages some people on here seem to think it will... Could be wrong!

I will take your word on this... you have lots of experience with ice storms.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't feel like 1/3-1/2" of ice will cause the amount of power outages some people on here seem to think it will... Could be wrong!

A lot of people are expecting it to last longer then modeled. Also, we haven’t a had a ice storm in a decade, so we have a lot of vegetation that will not be prone to it. Plus, it’s right before Christmas. 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't feel like 1/3-1/2" of ice will cause the amount of power outages some people on here seem to think it will... Could be wrong!

No idea, never really experienced ice up here other than an hour or two that only caused a very light coating. For the central/south sound we should have to look at 2012 and 1996, were there a bunch of outages then? 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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PDX is going to hit freezing by 4-5pm. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't feel like 1/3-1/2" of ice will cause the amount of power outages some people on here seem to think it will... Could be wrong!

Does it matter if the trees still have leaves on them? Quite curious to know because we actually still have quite a few trees here w/ leaves still on them. Extremely rare for this time of year. 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

All depends on if the warm push is at the upper levels or if the surface gradient switches. If the surface gradient switches to southerly in Clackamas county then sure, if the low level flow stays from the north than no. What the Hrrr is probably doing is translating the strong warm nose at the upper levels to the surface to aggressively. 

My thoughts exactly. No Way Eugene gets freezing rain and half of Clackamas county doesn't, seems illogical. 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Does it matter if the trees still have leaves on them? Quite curious to know because we actually still have quite a few trees here w/ leaves still on them. Extremely rare for this time of year. 

It can, the more leaved they are the more surface area for ice to build up.

A lot of trees around the area are still fully leaved, I would expect quite a bit of tree damage in the coming days.

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11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It will be extremely cold next couple days and the hi-res models are notorious for scouring out the cold too quickly imo. The 18z is holding onto the cold a little bit longer on Friday eve.. Of course, the 12z Euro had different ideas w/ the 40s by 10pm Friday. Given the recent event, we have 1 model that has a cold bias and the other with a warm one. I think this is a situation where we have the ice lingers into Saturday morning. 

JayA seems pretty worried. Mentions cold air hanging on through Friday night and possibly longer - although it was unclear to me if that's in favored areas with proximity to low-level east winds or the Sound as a whole.

I don't know of a significant Seattle/Central Sound icing event. 2012 was not bad at all in the city. It mainly stayed as snow - I didn't have more than like .15".

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2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

No idea, never really experienced ice up here other than an hour or two that only caused a very light coating. For the central/south sound we should have to look at 2012 and 1996, were there a bunch of outages then? 

I had around an 1in ish of ice and didn’t have power for about 5 days. For reference at that house location, I had never lost power for more than 4 hours before that. 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I will take your word on this... you have lots of experience with ice storms.

Once you get over 1/2" you start to see a lot of limb damage, it really takes over 1" to start bringing down trees and power lines. We had about 3/4" of ice with the 2004 event and it brought down a lot of limbs, but not trees or powerlines in the same way the 2021 event did. 

We had a lot of icing events in the 1995-1998 period down here, they were more in the 1/4-1/2" of ice range and none of them were particularly damaging. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

No idea, never really experienced ice up here other than an hour or two that only caused a very light coating. For the central/south sound we should have to look at 2012 and 1996, were there a bunch of outages then? 

I had no power for over a week in 2012. There was so much tree damage it was unbelievable. Had to cut ourselves out of the driveway. But that ice fell on top of a foot of snow, and I'm not sure how much ice accumulation there actually was. 

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Does it matter if the trees still have leaves on them? Quite curious to know because we actually still have quite a few trees here w/ leaves still on them. Extremely rare for this time of year. 

Probably, but I'm not sure. The trees on my property were pretty much totally leafed out still when we got 6"+ of wet snow in early November and it didn't damage them nearly as bad as I thought it might. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

When was the last time a wind chill advisory was issued for the Portland Metro Area?

Don’t recall if one was issued, but the last time we had anything close to resembling this was 2/5/14. Deep, cold advection. We were sunny and 25 degrees with screaming downslope winds.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, awright-31 said:

I had no power for over a week in 2012. There was so much tree damage it was unbelievable. Had to cut ourselves out of the driveway. But that ice fell on top of a foot of snow, and I'm not sure how much ice accumulation there actually was. 

Yeah, from the amount of ice people say happened in 2012, I think a lot of the damage was probably caused by it falling on snow. That was part of the problem with the icing event we had here in 2008, it fell on about 6" of snow. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Cloud makes a good point, about the worry the icing event will last longer than the models are showing. I can see that potentially occurring and that is when folks will run into trouble. It's also the deciduous trees that are going to have a lot of trouble with the ice. Conifers can handle it better. Oaks and Maples will get crushed. 

  • Like 6

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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GFS brings mountain snow back even into S. Oregon by Monday. Good news. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Totally different in an area that never gets them. TOTALLY.

I would agree. We have had two ice storms here in the last 30 years. Seems that Oregon gets them much more frequently. It's like how the first windstorm of the year always causes the most issues.

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Once you get over 1/2" you start to see a lot of limb damage, it really takes over 1" to start bringing down trees and power lines. We had about 3/4" of ice with the 2004 event and it brought down a lot of limbs, but not trees or powerlines in the same way the 2021 event did. 

We had a lot of icing events in the 1995-1998 period down here, they were more in the 1/4-1/2" of ice range and none of them were particularly damaging. 

There was a lot of ice near the Columbia river in 2016/2017. Not as much in most of the Metro but PDX had a total of 2.05" of ice that winter

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Where was the icing in 1996? I know significant down in the Portland area, but up in the Sound? Was it limited to the S. Sound?

2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS brings mountain snow back even into S. Oregon by Monday. Good news. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png

The mid range us looking MUCH better, i will be up at my cabin all week after Christmas and i was getting worried abut the torching but that is gone and it looks like a shittt ton of mountain snow now.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, Seattle said:

Where was the icing in 1996? I know significant down in the Portland area, but up in the Sound? Was it limited to the S. Sound?

The icing event made it up to the Sound... it was more of a problem in Thurston county. Then we had the overrunning event that eventually turned to rain. 

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