PNW December 2022 - Part II

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, Requiem said:

What are your thoughts on tomorrow-- do you buy models warming central/east metro up to the point they do before heavier precip comes in?

Gonna be a close call. I imagine the heavier band tomorrow morning will at least be accompanied by some stronger mixing aloft, so I think the less east-wind prone areas will thaw here in Clark County and throughout the south and west metro. We'll get a little more ZR here through then, but I doubt I'll top 1/4".

But for the gorge and the accompanying wind tunnel closer to the river, I still think there's a really good chance that the big batch of precip shown tomorrow is ZR. East wind should stay locked in until late evening Saturday and even then surface gradients probably will remain slightly offshore for PDX and points east.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

November 2015 through early January 2016 was pretty decent here. I would say the only true dud winter we've had since I've lived here was 2014-15. 2020-21 was a distant 2nd, but I characterize it as a dud too. I don't think we ever got below 23-24 and 12" of snow here during in a Nina is pathetic. 

We even managed an early snow and Arctic outbreak in late Nov / early Dec in 2014-15.  Been a decent run since 2006 in actuality, but I think the recent ones have upped the ante even more.

[Cloud]

Probably the coolest thing I’ve see people post on Twitter, FB etc…. Are people bringing out their ice skates to maneuver around hilltops.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

19-20 has been the only real dud here.  Even up there the rest of that winter was pretty lame for you guys too.  No doubt the fairly short January event saved the winter for you though.

I actually kind of enjoyed 2019-20. With how cold the fall was, and coming off the previous February, it seemed like something special might be on the way, but in the end the December/January period was a huge letdown, especially the infamous model bust of January 2020. But February and March were incredible here. Lots of cool sunny days and then about once a week we would get a 1-2" snow event, then we had a little bigger one in late February and mid-March we had about 4-5" with the one that brought light snow to Salem and PDX. 

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

I was impressed how long we were able to maintain enough cold air depth for sleet. Pretty hard to hold onto that profile for so long. 

Visually it is doing a nice job of imitating snow too. Glancing out the window it pretty much looks like that real deal.  

Should at least be a "white" Christmas Eve. That day has been pretty kind to us over the years. The snows in 2017, 2008, and 1998 with a bit in 1990 and 1983 as well.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

19-20 has been the only real dud here.  Even up there the rest of that winter was pretty lame for you guys too.  No doubt the fairly short January event saved the winter for you though.

Up here on top of the epic January event, we also had a nice little one in February as well! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We even managed an early snow and Arctic outbreak in late Nov / early Dec in 2014-15.  Been a decent run since 2006 in actuality, but I think the recent ones have upped the ante even more.

In my lifetime (I was born in 1984 and moved to Oregon in 1989), the winters I consider TRUE duds are:

1991-92

2002-03

2004-05

2014-15

Three of those had notable early cold snaps. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

15 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Heavy freezing rain for Snoqualmie Pass tomorrow morning. And heavy rain on snow in the Olympics and Cascades. 

 

Sounds like passes closed for standing water and avalanche control soon.

[WildrootParable]

Pretty dramatic warmup/thaw happening here. Steady precip, all rain. Trees and icicles all dripping heavily. The ice/snow on the roof is getting saturated with water. Haven't been outside yet to check, but I'm guessing we have standing water on top of the solid ice. Temp around 33. 

[HuskyMaestro]

When this is all said and done, can I keep the icicles for decor?

[WildrootParable]

A couple of icy detail shots from earlier...

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Flood pattern coming up.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In my lifetime (I was born in 1984 and moved to Oregon in 1989), the winters I consider TRUE duds are:

1991-92

2002-03

2004-05

2014-15

Three of those had notable early cold snaps. 

1986-87 was pretty dang gross, although that January almost looks cold nowadays.

[xfkirsten]

11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Probably the coolest thing I’ve see people post on Twitter, FB etc…. Are people bringing out their ice skates to maneuver around hilltops.

I am super jealous! I was looking longingly at my hockey skates this morning, but I don't have an area of ice big enough - there's too much slush in our parking lot. I could do some stickhandling practice along the edges, though!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The last horrible winter was 2015/16 but we still managed to get some falling snow on Christmas Eve and after Christmas. Maybe equaled an inch all winter. since then though we have had fantastic events each winter!! I sure hope we can get another great one or two out of this winter! 

I just pulled the records up for that so-called “winter” at BLI… .

Odds are, like it or not, we are now due for a replay in the next few years. Oh well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1986-87 was pretty dang gross, although that January almost looks cold nowadays.

My first winter here was 1989-90, which was a very 21st Century type February based winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I just pulled the records up for that so-called “winter” at BLI… .

Odds are, like it or not, we are now due for a replay in the next few years. Oh well.

It's inevitable. I like to think 2020-21 was our regional dud for the decade, it just happened to have 3 fantastic days from PDX - north. 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, xfkirsten said:

I am super jealous! I was looking longingly at my hockey skates this morning, but I don't have an area of ice big enough - there's too much slush in our parking lot. I could do some stickhandling practice along the edges, though!

The road in front of our house is perfect for skating right now.  Smooth as glass.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wednesday through Friday next week is starting to look like a mountain snow bonanza. 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's inevitable. I like to think 2020-21 was our regional dud for the decade, it just happened to have 3 fantastic days from PDX - north. 

Most decades have at least a couple. Even the 1950s had 1952-53 and 1957-58. The 1960s had three really lame winters, and the 1940s had 4 total duds.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I just pulled the records up for that so-called “winter” at BLI… .

Odds are, like it or not, we are now due for a replay in the next few years. Oh well.

They even happened in the 19th century.  Just total turd burgers.

[MossMan]

It’s kind of depressing that this thing that we have tracked for the last two weeks straight is now over. Ugh. Well at least we have Christmas and watching the Seahawks freeze tomorrow. 

[xfkirsten]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The road in front of our house is perfect for skating right now.  Smooth as glass.

I've seen quite a few videos already of people doing it! Seems like it's going pretty well (though I'd definitely take my skates right in for a sharpening afterwards)

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My first winter here was 1989-90, which was a very 21st Century type February based winter. 

And some places in the mid-South are having their coldest December weather right now since the big one in December 1989.

Nashville is sitting on an extremely impressive 10/-1 so far today.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Most decades have at least a couple. Even the 1950s had 1952-53 and 1957-58. The 1960s had three really lame winters, and the 1940s had 4 total duds.

Yeah, we alternated in virtually a complete POS every 3rd winter for quite awhile during that era. 1957-58, 1960-61, 1963-64, 1966-67, and 1969-70. And then 1972-73 broke the streak.

[TT-SEA]

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

And some places in the mid-South are having their coldest December weather right now since the big one in December 1989.

Nashville is sitting on an extremely impressive 10/-1 so far today.

The scope, scale, and intensity of this cold air mass is incredible.  Also, how fast it spread out across the entire country when it broke loose.  It had all of that time sitting in NW Canada to really chill out before it moved.

Of the entire thing Whatcom County could down as one of the bigger winners anywhere in the country for duration and overall period of impressive winter weather.

[Cloud]

Still a lot of uncertainty regarding Tuesday’s storm. It’s a tad weaker on the 18z at 969mb, while the 12z euro bombed it to 958mb before landfall. 
 

Right now it seems like the consensus is towards Van. Is.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s kind of depressing that this thing that we have tracked for the last two weeks straight is now over. Ugh. Well at least we have Christmas and watching the Seahawks freeze tomorrow. 

If it's not stormy, I'm going to be tempted to do some weekend car camping once normal temperatures return and the snow melts. Dealing with everything want to freeze is an ordeal, but if its chilly but not freezing cold I can generally cope. Plus assorted family issues made me miss most of the summer camping season.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Michael Synders video made the weather channel lol

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I decided not to go down to Eugene. We were having Christmas at the in-laws because my wife is working this weekend. She's already down there with the kids, so it kind of sucks, but the roads in Marion County are horrific. Even though we are well into the 40s our driveway is still a sheet of ice, so even if temps in the valley creep up above freezing things will still be pretty bad for a while. I also have been seeing tons of FB posts about how horrible the conditions are in Stayton, Silverton, the who places I'd have to get through whichever way I went to get to I-5. 

SLE is up to 30, but most stations in the Salem area and points north are still mid-upper 20s. That freezing line will slowly keep creeping north, SLE may not mix out, but I bet they end up in the 32-34 range before midnight as the lower levels at least begin to moderate, but we will see. 

There have been literally hundreds of accidents in Marion County today, I can't remember anything like this. 

Hwy 22 and Silver Falls Hwy

Hwy 22 leaving Salem at Gaffin Rd.

Silverton Rd just west of Silverton

Silverton Rd 2 miles east of Salem (Different location than first Silverton Rd pic)

Someone ice skating down 3rd St in Silverton

Didn’t manage to get any mangled bodies in these pics? Downvote

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Let's go swimming!

[SnowWillarrive]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The scope, scale, and intensity of this cold air mass is incredible.  Also, how fast it spread out across the entire country when it broke loose.  It had all of that time sitting in NW Canada to really chill out before it moved.

Of the entire thing Whatcom County could down as one of the bigger winners anywhere in the country for duration and overall period of impressive winter weather.

Considering how cold this airmass has been I feel we got the short end of the stick. The entire I-5 corridor should have gotten 12-18 inches of snow. 

[jakerepp]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let's go swimming!

You can get your polar bear plunge over with early!

[jakerepp]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Considering how cold this airmass has been I feel we got the short end of the stick. The entire I-5 corridor should have gotten 12-18 inches of snow. 

It feels that way. Just a really unique set up.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The scope, scale, and intensity of this cold air mass is incredible.  Also, how fast it spread out across the entire country when it broke loose.  It had all of that time sitting in NW Canada to really chill out before it moved.

Of the entire thing Whatcom County could down as one of the bigger winners anywhere in the country for duration and overall period of impressive winter weather.

Definitely. A quick hitter, but a total beast that really hauled a** and was just able to squeeze into the -PNA/-EPO/-NAO perfecta trifecta before the flip with the jet extension kicking in. Not sure if the high pressure record was set as some runs showed, the highest verified that I can find so far is 1054mb in MT. But still extremely impressive.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just ticked above the freezing mark for the first time since early Sunday morning.

After over 120 hours in the icebox, the thaw is on!

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Still a lot of uncertainty regarding Tuesday’s storm. It’s a tad weaker on the 18z at 969mb, while the 12z euro bombed it to 958mb before landfall. 
 

Right now it seems like the consensus is towards Van. Is.

Also looks like the consensus has it losing some jet support as it nears the coast and begins to fill rapidly. Still some sizable potential and anything 50+mph could be a major problem with the weaker branches right now.

[Cloud]

Parade of  

[BLI snowman]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

They even happened in the 19th century.  Just total turd burgers.

Not sure if you have any info on 1868-69, but my understanding is that it was a strongish Nino and had no measurable snow in the Willamette Valley or SW WA. Records from that particular year seem pretty spotty.