November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This low track is not a track you want for PDX snow, anytime of year.

Gonna be a real bummer if this is a persistent pattern. I at least want some Arctic air at some point but I'm not holding my breath. If it doesn't freeze here in the next 48 hrs who knows when it will?

[TT-SEA]

Gonna be a real bummer if this is a persistent pattern. I at least want some Arctic air at some point but I'm not holding my breath. If it doesn't freeze here in the next 48 hrs who knows when it will?

 

Sometime this winter.   

 

Why is a freeze really so important right now anyways?

[FroYoBro]

Gonna be a real bummer if this is a persistent pattern. I at least want some Arctic air at some point but I'm not holding my breath. If it doesn't freeze here in the next 48 hrs who knows when it will?

Please stop repeating this post. Thank you. 

[Kayla]

Gonna be a real bummer if this is a persistent pattern. I at least want some Arctic air at some point but I'm not holding my breath. If it doesn't freeze here in the next 48 hrs who knows when it will?

 

It's only early November. SEA always does better in November events. 

[Timmy]

Gonna be a real bummer if this is a persistent pattern. I at least want some Arctic air at some point but I'm not holding my breath. If it doesn't freeze here in the next 48 hrs who knows when it will?

Patience... best winter I expercienced seemed like there wouldn’t be a winter until a week or so into December. Then 2008 happened.

[ShawniganLake]

Outflow winds have been increasing thru the evening but no low level cold has reached Vancouver Island from it, temps have warmed thru the evening. I’m not at home currently, but here at sea level it’s mostly rain.

[DareDuck]

Please stop repeating this post. Thank you.

This. He’s been told repeatedly it’s only early November and we’ve seen a post resembling this about this particular storm several times. Really gets old.

[DareDuck]

It’s like VIS and TWL are cousins. Only VIS is worried about the drought and TWL is worried about a freeze.

[TT-SEA]

Basically no lowland snow on the 00Z WRF for the Seattle area through tomorrow afternoon.

 

We don't even have its unrealistic eye candy this time like we had on Friday.   This would have been a fun track with a cold central WA basin.

 

[HighlandExperience]

Basically no lowland snow on the 00Z WRF for the Seattle area through tomorrow afternoon.

 

We don't even have its unrealistic eye candy this time like we had on Friday.  

 

 

 

 

We need the GEM to come through for us. Let us bow our heads in prayer. 

 

[Timmy]

We need the GEM to come through for us. Let us bow our heads in prayer.

 

If you need lower res maps to come through for you, you are in for a lot of disappointment.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Basically no lowland snow on the 00Z WRF for the Seattle area through tomorrow afternoon.

 

We don't even have its unrealistic eye candy this time like we had on Friday.   This would have been a fun track with a cold central WA basin.

 

 

Probably about right... But then there is the GEM. Decisions, decisions...   

[HighlandExperience]

Probably about right... But then there is the GEM. Decisions, decisions...   

 

I'd just be happy with a slushy inch of accumulation. A good appetizer 

[HighlandExperience]

precipitation is noticeably heavier now. I think I see snow mixing in! 

[TT-SEA]

I'd just be happy with a slushy inch of accumulation. A good appetizer 

 

I saw some slushy snow on the Highlands web cam yesterday.

[HighlandExperience]

I saw some slushy snow on the Highlands web cam yesterday.

Yea I’d like a bit more this time

[Deweydog]

Like I said a couple weeks ago... If I don't get a major snowstorm by Veteran's Day, this climate can go **** itself

[TT-SEA]

Like I said a couple weeks ago... If I don't get a major snowstorm by Veteran's Day, this climate can go **** itself

 

I heard that Mark is thinking about getting that fork out! 

[snow_wizard]

Gonna be a real bummer if this is a persistent pattern. I at least want some Arctic air at some point but I'm not holding my breath. If it doesn't freeze here in the next 48 hrs who knows when it will?

 

I think everyone is going to have fun this winter.

[snow_wizard]

The operational GFS is slightly more aggressive with the cold and wetter /snowier than previous runs for tomorrow morning.  If it's correct 925s drop to -3 over Western King County...the coldest values of anywhere for Western WA.  Backwash situations are excellent for King County.  The Olympics play into it somehow.

[wxmet]

Frontogenetically-forced band of heavy rain moving through the WPSL. Would be great if this was snow.

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/nids/images/KATX/20171105_043838_BREF1_gray.png

[snow_wizard]

There is an obvious problem with the WRF already.  It's already colder in Bellingham than it shows them being late tonight.  I'm not buying the nearly snowless solution it's showing.  Given the improvement in the operational GFS I'm pretty optimistic for snow in a number of areas.

[TT-SEA]

The operational GFS is slightly more aggressive with the cold and wetter /snowier than previous runs for tomorrow morning.  If it's correct 925s drop to -3 over Western King County...the coldest values of anywhere for Western WA.  Backwash situations are excellent for King County.  The Olympics play into it somehow.

 

Backwash drizzle usually does not work out well.    It think like that will be the case.  

[snow_wizard]

True. It just sucks because this climate is so crappy. Who knows if we get a set up this good again with the low perfectly placed. Tis isn't Duluth 

 

This is going to be an exceptional winter IMO.  All of the boxes are checked for a really good one.

[epiceast]

This is going to be an exceptional winter IMO.  All of the boxes are checked for a really good one.

Still need the snow box checked!

[Phil]

Check out the downwelling -QBO. Equatorial easterlies present at 10mb & 30mb, but we have yet to flip @ 50mb, hence the ongoing +QBO-esque WHEM circulation.

 

10mb:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F334F5E7-0A04-47B1-9AE8-A06B7AC55AFF_zps4c8qmtbw.jpg

 

30mb:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B78962E5-79B8-4EA0-BF76-5C352061C29F_zpsczdikusx.jpg

 

50mb:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DDCD7C98-40AE-407D-9847-85F1A66980A1_zpsnqef4hbu.jpg

[luvssnow_spokane]

Check out the downwelling -QBO. Equatorial easterlies present at 10mb & 30mb, but we have yet to flip @ 50mb, hence the ongoing +QBO-esque WHEM circulation.

 

10mb:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F334F5E7-0A04-47B1-9AE8-A06B7AC55AFF_zps4c8qmtbw.jpg

 

30mb:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B78962E5-79B8-4EA0-BF76-5C352061C29F_zpsczdikusx.jpg

 

50mb:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DDCD7C98-40AE-407D-9847-85F1A66980A1_zpsnqef4hbu.jpg

Oh my!! Thank you that clears up everything!!!

[Deweydog]

[HighlandExperience]

Snow mixing in here east of Portland at 600ft. 36°

Did someone tell tiger woods

[seattleweatherguy]

Low has strengthened by 2mb in the last hour, now at 1006.

This good or bad? All I'm getting is cold rain

[Geos]

35 here now. If only it was just slightly cooler.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Did someone tell tiger woods

44 here in Monmouth. Steady south wind. Looks like we will bottom out about 42 or so. Couple degrees below average.

[seattleweatherguy]

37 with a dp of 37 according to my weather app

[TT-SEA]

37 with a dp of 37 according to my weather app

 

Its wet... fully saturated.  

[snow_wizard]

The temp is dropping very slowly here.  It would seem there is more cold air over Central WA now than there was with the Friday event.  Down to 37 with a few drops of rain passing the splat test.  I'm still feeling confident about tomorrow morning.  It is likely the precip will continue longer than the WRF is indicating due to this area being on the NW quadrant of the surface low at that time.

[snow_wizard]

Snow mixing in here east of Portland at 600ft. 36°

 

That is really surprising.

[TT-SEA]

The temp is dropping very slowly here.  It would seem there is more cold air over Central WA now than there was with the Friday event.  Down to 37 with a few drops of rain passing the splat test.  I'm still feeling confident about tomorrow morning.  It is likely the precip will continue longer than the WRF is indicating due to this area being on the NW quadrant of the surface low at that time.

 

Temperature is rising here... all rain.   If there is more cold air than Friday its not showing itself here.   Its snowed here all day on Friday but did not accumulate.   

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Well, for what it's worth ($3.29?) the positive height anomaly and block does remain the entire run over Alaska from 160-170 W. 00z CMC doesn't quite retrograde/migrate the block as far west as the GFS keeping it somewhat near the sweet spot.

[TT-SEA]

Low is moving onto the coast right now... north of Hoquiam.   Clearly visible on the coastal radar loop.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF does not show much lowland snow... but the best chance will be between 4-10 a.m. 

 

By 10 a.m. the precip is starting to slip southward out of the Seattle area.   This is significantly faster than the 12Z run.