Timmy Supercell Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Bring on the storms. I've been waiting for this pattern! If this were last year we'd already be in it. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Yet another day of no sunspots. Getting into the low solar activity area of 08 and 09 now. http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gifAwesome, thanks for posting this! Another reason to be very hopeful about this winter! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 I was washing my truck in shorts on Thanksgiving 2008 and was very concerned as well...until the greatness started just a couple of weeks later!I was playing naked badminton outside in early December before the crash. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 I was playing naked badminton outside in early December before the crash.That’s the game with the shuttlecocks, right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 That’s the game with the shuttlecocks, right?Shrunken, shriveled shuttlecocks, yes. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 I was playing naked badminton outside in early December before the crash. I thought that was the time that lawn furniture was flying into your yard last year? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 I thought that was the time that lawn furniture was flying into your yard last year?No, thank God. That could have been disastrous. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Yet another day of no sunspots. Getting into the low solar activity area of 08 and 09 now. http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gifInteresting. Is this why winters sucked so bad prior to 2006? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Interesting. Is this why winters sucked so bad prior to 2006? Was '03-'04 only good for NW OR and not in Washington? I tend to forget minor details. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 I thought I remember 03-04 being one of those "something for everybody" in the PNW years (with 2008 being the most recent type of regional widespread snow events & such) but I could be mistaken. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 03-04 was good. Especially late December early January. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 03-04 was good. Especially late December early January.Yea. I think that was a good stretch just about everywhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Interesting. Is this why winters sucked so bad prior to 2006?One of many factors. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 I was out of state for school that year. But I mostly remember 1998 through 2006 mostly sucking. These were my formative years moving from my teenage life to young adulthood. I was under the impression that our climate was just incapable of good snowfall due to global warming As a young kid I do remember the mid 90s having some great snows. I have neighbors (in their 60's who moved here in the 1980's) who thought that exact same thing until we had our last two winters. Then the 18+ inch snow I got Jan 3-4 this year totally shocked them. Climate Change is only a long term thing and does not include individual events. We have actually seen very D**n impressive thunderstorms and hailstorms here (20-30+ years ago) compared to now, a very good example why individual events cannot be used as a correlation to Climate Change. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Gusty south wind at SEA all day. Its been dead calm here all day which is unusual with a strong winds over Seattle... unless there is weak offshore flow here at the time. I don't think that is the case. The 12Z WRF did show a small calm area in central King County this afternoon: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 I have neighbors (in their 60's who moved here in the 1980's) who thought that exact same thing until we had our last two winters. Then the 18+ inch snow I got Jan 3-4 this year totally shocked them. Climate Change is only a long term thing and does not include individual events. We have actually seen very d**n impressive thunderstorms and hailstorms here (20-30+ years ago) compared to now, a very good example why individual events cannot be used as a correlation to Climate Change.Well the education system drilled into our head during the late 90s and early 2000s that winter was something for previous generations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Gusty south wind at SEA all day. Its been dead calm here all day which is unusual with a strong winds over Seattle... unless there is weak offshore flow here at the time. I don't think that is the case. The 12Z WRF did show a small calm area in central King County this afternoon: Been a little breezy here this afternoon, but not like yesterday at this time. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Mid-50s here and the occasional breeze. Frontal band slowly creeping this way. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Mid-50s here and the occasional breeze. Frontal band slowly creeping this way. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Winds aren't bad at all tonight. At a balmy 53 right now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 I have neighbors (in their 60's who moved here in the 1980's) who thought that exact same thing until we had our last two winters. Then the 18+ inch snow I got Jan 3-4 this year totally shocked them. Climate Change is only a long term thing and does not include individual events. We have actually seen very d**n impressive thunderstorms and hailstorms here (20-30+ years ago) compared to now, a very good example why individual events cannot be used as a correlation to Climate Change.Yeah, too many people attribute single weather events to evidence (or lack thereof) of climate change. Hell, even if the entire planet warms 3-4 degrees in the next couple decades, that doesn't necessarily mean snow in the PNW is done for. While the general trend is for warming sure, it's pretty well established that extreme events in general are going to come with it. Start messing with the jet stream and upper atmosphere in general enough and all sorts of wacky things could happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Gusty south wind at SEA all day. Its been dead calm here all day which is unusual with a strong winds over Seattle... unless there is weak offshore flow here at the time. I don't think that is the case. The 12Z WRF did show a small calm area in central King County this afternoon: I would have thought your location is pretty sheltered from South winds. Are you saying you usually get them there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 I would have thought your location is pretty sheltered from South winds. Are you saying you usually get them there? Sure got blasted yesterday. When I see that SEA has a south wind gusting into the 20s and 30s then it usually reaches here. It was oddly calm today given that it was so windy in Seattle today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Sure got blasted yesterday. When I see that SEA has a south wind gusting into the 20s and 30s then it usually reaches here. It was oddly calm today given that it was so windy in Seattle today. I think the ridge behind you protects you somewhat. But other times you get winds that decent off the ridge. Correct in that assumption? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Late this afternoon seemed windier than yesterday, lost power at work for a few hours. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 It's pretty windy here tonight, about as windy as our last storm. With the wind has been a ridiculously strong rain shadow signature. There's been some heavy rain just a bit to the north of here, but only about 0.3" here on the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Been pretty calm and dry here all day... not much going on at all — I am bored! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 The 0z GFS looks to shift the ridge position back to 150 by the end of the month. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Been pretty calm and dry here all day... not much going on at all — I am bored! After 1 day? It was windy for hours yesterday. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 The 0z GFS looks to shift the ridge position back to 150 by the end of the month.Good. Shove it up there and drop that PV over us! 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 After 1 day? It was windy for hours yesterday.I think it might be my weather related ADD Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 FWIW the CFS continues to go with extreme GOA blocking for December on most runs. Some runs are showing January cold also. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 I think it might be my weather related ADD We are a sad lot. I have weather related bi-polar / manic depression myself. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Gorgeous -NAO on the modeling tonight. Great sign if you're rooting for a midwinter -PNA. November -NAO been a strong precursor for a blocky midwinter NPAC through the satellite era in analogous QBO boundary conditions, regardless of ENSO. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Sure enough, the analogs concur...9/10 featured some legitimate winter weather in the PNW. Only one of those years was a dud IIRC (1999/00). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Gorgeous -NAO on the modeling tonight. Great sign if you're rooting for a midwinter -PNA. November -NAO been a strong precursor for a blocky midwinter NPAC through the satellite era in analogous QBO boundary conditions, regardless of ENSO. I was noticing that myself. Some pretty intense anomalies on this run. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Sure enough, the analogs concur...9/10 featured some legitimate winter weather in the PNW. Only one of those years was a dud IIRC (1999/00). Really nice group there! I've been looking more closely at 1973-74 in recent days. We came VERY close to really getting blasted that January. A few minor tweaks would have taken a prolonged chilly period to something downright epic. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 I'm not sure which is uglier. That 00z GFS Op run(over the next 10 days) or Lonzo Ball's jump shot. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 1.77" of rain here today so far. Currently raining at a 0.47"/hr rate. Chilly too, 40F at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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