November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[ShawniganLake]

Windy is still in the forecast for Monday time frame.

 

Screen Shot 2017-11-22 at 8.03.16 AM.png

That’s early Sunday morning

[WeatherArchive]

12z GFS running

It would be nice to see this run make a move towards the ECMWF which is not yet ideal or arctic, but after day 8 it does put the positive anomaly/ridge in the Gulf of Alaska where we want it. Baby steps! Think Cold and SNOW! ❄☃❄❄☃❄

 

Cautiously optimistic and I would be slightly more if the teleconnections looked better.

remember winter is always just ten days away! The magic of the NW.

[Jbolin]

remember winter is always just ten days away! The magic of the NW.

[Farmboy]

Is that a Kona low ne of Hawaii I see on the long range 12z GFS, and don't we want that feature a little further west?

[Anti Marine Layer]

Yuck. I could never imagine experiencing the 90s in November. Heck, not even the 80s. Maybe the low 70's, but that's my cut-off.

With the low sun angle and dry air it doesn't feel quite that hot.

[Geos]

Quite a deluge overnight. Picked up 1.61" of rain since 12 am yesterday.

 

5.60" for the month so far and we've still got 8 days to go.

[TT-SEA]

Quite a deluge overnight. Picked up 1.61" of rain since 12 am yesterday.

 

5.60" for the month so far and we've still got 8 days to go.

SEA is at about 180% of normal so far for the month.

[Timmy]

Is that a Kona low ne of Hawaii I see on the long range 12z GFS, and don't we want that feature a little further west?

We want a lot of things, but they aren't happening any time soon.

[Phil]

I love these maps. The winter midpoint stuff is especially interesting..with the Pacific Ocean upstream, I would expect this to be reversed, but maybe the thermal inertia of the Arctic and high latitude waters have more sway.

 

[Phil]

Longest stretch of subfreezing lows on record.

 

[Phil]

Most common high temperature category.

 

[Phil]

Average longest stretch w/ snowcover. Not the greatest in terms of resolution, though.

 

[Phil]

[Front Ranger]

I love these maps. The winter midpoint stuff is especially interesting..with the Pacific Ocean upstream, I would expect this to be reversed, but maybe the thermal inertia of the Arctic and high latitude waters have more sway.

 

 

Yeah, that map definitely reflects the lack of cold Januaries in the West the last 30+ years. Long term, I'd say the mid winter point for most of the West is around the first week of January.

[HighlandExperience]

Average longest stretch w/ snowcover. Not the greatest in terms of resolution, though.

 

That map has terrible resolution. Especially for the spine of BC. Which is pretty much continuously covered in snow. Interesting though

[MossMan]

From NWS Seattle...

This may or may not keep you on the edge of your seat. But....

 

If Seattle's low temperature (so far) today remains at 56 degrees, it will be the all-time warmest low temperature for the month of November in our entire climate record going back to the early 1890s.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

From NWS Seattle...

This may or may not keep you on the edge of your seat. But....

 

If Seattle's low temperature (so far) today remains at 56 degrees, it will be the all-time warmest low temperature for the month of November in our entire climate record going back to the early 1890s.

Thanksgiving torch = good things later

[HighlandExperience]

From NWS Seattle...

This may or may not keep you on the edge of your seat. But....

 

If Seattle's low temperature (so far) today remains at 56 degrees, it will be the all-time warmest low temperature for the month of November in our entire climate record going back to the early 1890s.

Seattle Times will publish an article shortly showing this as evidence of global warming

[Timmy]

 

Euro is weaker and further south with monday's low

[Phil]

How do they define winter midpoint? If it's defined as when weenies think winter is half over, this isn't accurate at all.

Lol, no. It's based on station temperature data.

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro looks promising for a pattern finally favoring western troughing the first week of December.

 

As mentioned previously, several leading analogs did feature cool troughing in early December, following a warm western November: 2007, 1995, 1970, 1954. 

[TT-SEA]

66 degrees in Bellingham right now... with some sun.

 

 

Only 61 in Seattle.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z Euro looks promising for a pattern finally favoring western troughing the first week of December.

 

As mentioned previously, several leading analogs did feature cool troughing in early December, following a warm western November: 2007, 1995, 1970, 1954. 

 

Two of those were top 5 snowy winters here.

[MossMan]

66 degrees in Bellingham right now... with some sun.

 

 

Only 61 in Seattle.

Just a couple of weeks ago that was a very snowy cam!

[BLI snowman]

BLI sure has owned PDX for high temperature ranges this month. Lowest max there of 34 and now a warm max of 66. PDX's lowest max has been 47 and their warmest so far only 58.

[Geos]

From NWS Seattle...

This may or may not keep you on the edge of your seat. But....

 

If Seattle's low temperature (so far) today remains at 56 degrees, it will be the all-time warmest low temperature for the month of November in our entire climate record going back to the early 1890s.

 

Cliff Mass had a nice write up on the warmth.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

[MossMan]

Thinking back after reliving the Nov. 2010 event on the other thread that the 2006-2012 time period was awesome up here with great to epic events each month from November-February... 

Then 2013-2016 happened  

Last year was a little better but it lacked any big events...i'm ready for a big event again!

[Jesse]

Thinking back after reliving the Nov. 2010 event on the other thread that the 2006-2012 time period was awesome up here with great to epic events each month from November-February...

Then 2013-2016 happened

Last year was a little better but it lacked any big events...i'm ready for a big event again!

2013-14 was a solid winter down here.

[Jesse]

BLI sure has owned PDX for high temperature ranges this month. Lowest max there of 34 and now a warm max of 66. PDX's lowest max has been 47 and their warmest so far only 58.

66 has got to be close to a late season record for them. But they’ve seen so much record warmth the last few years that it’s possible that has been exceeded more recently.

[MossMan]

Cliff Mass had a nice write up on the warmth.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

I love going back to his blogs in 2008 and reading about all the warmth in late November.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/11/very-warm-air.html

And then his blog just 7 days later...

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/12/major-changes-next-friday.html

[BLI snowman]

66 has got to be close to a late season record for them. But they’ve seen so much record warmth the last few years that it’s possible that has been exceeded more recently.

 

Yes, they also hit 66 on 11/26/1950 and then 67 on 12/10/2014.

[Jesse]

I’m definitely a fan of the 12z Euro. Starting tomorrow it seems to be cooler all around.

[TT-SEA]

Now up to 64 at SEA.

[Deweydog]

I’m definitely a fan of the 12z Euro. Starting tomorrow it seems to be cooler all around.

Shifting gears to a cold mess?

[Geos]

It feels humid out there today. Noticed the lake fog over Lake Washington this morning from the higher dew points over the colder water.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2013-14 was a solid winter down here.

 

January 2013 was a regionally cold month. 

[Deweydog]

January 2013 was a regionally cold month.

Arctic by every measure.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

60 and quite humid. Back deck still soaked and hasn't evaporated. Headed to Newport tonight where there is a decent southerly wind.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

January 2013 was a regionally cold month.

12-13? Boy I must have forgotten that. I remember early Feb 2014 being truly remarkable.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12-13? Boy I must have forgotten that. I remember early Feb 2014 being truly remarkable.

 

Well there was no snow.