January 2023 Observations and Discussions

[Hawkeye]

12z RDPS for the weekend... north and wetter. (probably too wet)

However, the NAM is much drier.

[bud2380]

16 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

12z RDPS for the weekend... north and wetter. (probably too wet)

However, the NAM is much drier.

Another overnight event as well.  I've barely seen snow falling during the daytime so far this winter.  

[Hawkeye]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Another overnight event as well.  I've barely seen snow falling during the daytime so far this winter.  

EVERYTHING is overnight.  I understand nights are long in winter, but the evening-to-morning timing of every system is pissing me off.

[MIKEKC]

AT the end of GFS 6z run overnight, it showed a massive storm to open up FEB with artic air to follow. 

50 day cycle would take you back to the Dec. 13th -15th Blizzard in the Northern Plains, remember? Huge storm in the Plains at that time. Rain further south, KC recorded 1-1.5 inches.  Following that, a much colder pattern set up and then the Christmas week storm showed up with the coldest airmass of the season. 

I think we can plan on the first half of FEB to be quite active and much colder for most per the LRC.

 

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS... good track, but this wave is pretty weak.

[mlgamer]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

12z GFS... good track, but this wave is pretty weak.

I have high confidence in this solution because it clearly shows the Topeka snow hole. Sigh...lol

[winterfreak]

Saturday “event” falling apart for us. Huge area of snow in the western half of Kansas though…again.

[KTPmidMO]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Might be about time for a thread for the 24th-26th storm as all the models have it.      I'm bored and need something to track and read about.  Being a manager, I just sit on the internet all day...

I second this! Excited to track this storm for next week. Hopefully can get in on some of the action! All models have the storm there, just a little all over the place yet, which is expected at this point this far out.

[sumweatherdude]

LOL.  I give up.

[Hawkeye]

GFS

[tStacsh]

SMI gets rocked on the latest GFS run.  Will the Euro play ball and come north?

[CentralNebWeather]

44 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

AT the end of GFS 6z run overnight, it showed a massive storm to open up FEB with artic air to follow. 

50 day cycle would take you back to the Dec. 13th -15th Blizzard in the Northern Plains, remember? Huge storm in the Plains at that time. Rain further south, KC recorded 1-1.5 inches.  Following that, a much colder pattern set up and then the Christmas week storm showed up with the coldest airmass of the season. 

I think we can plan on the first half of FEB to be quite active and much colder for most per the LRC.

 

Good catch. I was wondering the other day about when that might cycle back through and if this time it would be farther south.
Agri meteorologist Eric Snodgrass is really pointing to Late January through February as very cold and potentially stormy. He is on YouTube under Nutrien Ag Solutions and puts out daily videos. He is one of my go to weather sources. 

[Hawkeye]

12z GDPS... like the GFS, it throws some light snow back into Iowa, but the energy and moisture are focused well southeast, from St. Louis to Michigan.

[MIKEKC]

17 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

LOL.  I give up.

Canadian and RGEM still have 3-4 in KC. Remember, just 10 hours before the storm in Omaha, the data was showing 10 inches of snow....

We have a storm heading this way, let's see what really happens. At least there is something to track. A big storm next week to track, let's see where that baby goes. 

Something I'm seeing on this mornings data is KC on eastward is in the snow hole now, dry air? East/NE East wind, tongue of dry air seems to be playing with the snow hole. That may not land on us. 

I agree, the trends are west and north...let's see if they trend back.

GFS was the only model to have this on Monday's data...just FYI. All other models are playing catch up. 

[westMJim]

The updated CPC long range guess is now out. In looking at both the CPC and the CFSv2 long range guesses.
CPC January
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php
And the CFSv2 next 30 days.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/
It looks like we will be between the cold to the NW and the warm to the SE. And according to the CPC there is a good chance of a lot of rain/snow and according to the CFSv2 there could be some colder than average temperatures. So the bottom line is we have a chance of a “bookend” winter this season. Remember the Great Lakes are still mostly ice free and more than likely warmer than average for this time of the winter. So the potential is there for some wild late winter weather. We shall see.

[WinterSquall23]

3 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The updated CPC long range guess is now out. In looking at both the CPC and the CFSv2 long range guesses.
CPC January
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php
And the CFSv2 next 30 days.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/
It looks like we will be between the cold to the NW and the warm to the SE. And according to the CPC there is a good chance of a lot of rain/snow and according to the CFSv2 there could be some colder than average temperatures. So the bottom line is we have a chance of a “bookend” winter this season. Remember the Great Lakes are still mostly ice free and more than likely warmer than average for this time of the winter. So the potential is there for some wild late winter weather. We shall see.

If it does get colder, probably a big chance for lake effect snows since there is hardly any ice .  I think they were saying DTW recorded .2 inches of snow in January so far! 

[hawkstwelve]

Things should mostly quiet down for FSD again until the week of January 30th-February 3rd, when I would expect our next storm system to move through the area. As Mike alluded to above, that would align fairly closely with the storms on 10/26-10/27 and 12/13-12/14. Both of those systems were fairly pronounced and carried pretty decent moisture.

Until then, I'm crossing my fingers that this more suppressed jet can deliver some goods to the southern/eastern members that have up to this point largely missed out on the winter fun. Hope it works out!

[westMJim]

Here is the latest on the Great Lakes ice coverage.
https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/ice.html
As you can see there is less than 4% of coverage and a lot of open water with temperature up to the low 40'

[tStacsh]

GRR is still 26.9" above snowfall normal for the date on the season.  Even though it has snowed officially .6" in the last 3 weeks.   We will certainly end the season above normal in snowfall, even though it doesn't feel like it.  

[westMJim]

@Ferndale_man Yes, Detroit has only had 0.2" of snow fall so far this December. Other locations across Michigan are not any better. Grand Rapids 0.6" Lansing 0.2" Muskegon 0.1" Flint 0.5" and Saginaw 0.4"

[Niko]

So far, DTW has received 0.2" for the month of January. Dtw should have had at least 7.9" to current date. Crazy! Still plenty of January left.

[Black Hole]

It's interesting how for my part of the country the lack of low level cold air could make for precip type issues. The upper level low itself is quite strong, but models are spitting out rain even with 500-1000 thickness values in the low 530s. I suspect that snow would still develop northwest of the surface low with good rates, but accumulation might be lacking.

Models continue to bounce all over the place but overall my mood for this round is diminishing and I am expecting little to nothing. But with a SSW upcoming, should have some additional chances in the next 6 weeks. 

[winterfreak]

Another storm that digs and bombs out too far south and east of where it needs to:

[sumweatherdude]

38 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Another storm that digs and bombs out too far south and east of where it needs to:

Since the winter of 2013-14, KC has averaged 25% below normal snowfall.  Over a 10 year period, that's really remarkable.    We had three years in a row during that time with single digit totals. I just saw something that said KC is now at it's halfway point of snowfall the snow season. There's nothing to suggest that we'll break double digits this year.  I have to think this run of bad luck is pretty much unprecedented.  Here's KC's snow history through the 18-19 winter.  Maybe you can find a worse stretch.  I couldn't.  

http://cdn.trb.tv/wdaf-ftp/almanac/wayrsnow.html

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

EVERYTHING is overnight.  I understand nights are long in winter, but the evening-to-morning timing of every system is pissing me off.

We have had 3 legit systems  to plow and salt here in Ottumwa.   On all 3 the snow didn't  stop falling  until 8 or 9 am!!! Worst posible timing to get 60 commercial  sites cleaned  up with businesses opening and both employees  and their customers  arriving  while my men working. Quite stressful.

[OttumwaSnomow]

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Good catch. I was wondering the other day about when that might cycle back through and if this time it would be farther south.
Agri meteorologist Eric Snodgrass is really pointing to Late January through February as very cold and potentially stormy. He is on YouTube under Nutrien Ag Solutions and puts out daily videos. He is one of my go to weather sources. 

Eric is very good! We follow him closely 

[Grizzcoat]

20 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Since the winter of 2013-14, KC has averaged 25% below normal snowfall.  Over a 10 year period, that's really remarkable.    We had three years in a row during that time with single digit totals. I just saw something that said KC is now at it's halfway point of snowfall the snow season. There's nothing to suggest that we'll break double digits this year.  I have to think this run of bad luck is pretty much unprecedented.  Here's KC's snow history through the 18-19 winter.  Maybe you can find a worse stretch.  I couldn't.  

http://cdn.trb.tv/wdaf-ftp/almanac/wayrsnow.html

 

A little easier to look at here-- i have no opinions on the matter- just showing actual snowfall--

 

Least snowiest seasons-- KC AREA-

and most snowiest seasons-

[Tom]

12z Euro...for the weekend system...I also fired up a storm thread for the 24th-26th...

[winterfreak]

52 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

A little easier to look at here-- i have no opinions on the matter- just showing actual snowfall--

 

Least snowiest seasons-- KC AREA-

and most snowiest seasons-

Late 50s and early 60s must’ve been epic.

[hawkstwelve]

Total snowfall across the CONUS from end of September through today...

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Niko said:

Sundays little system looks to be in the 1-3 inch range. Been very busy lately, so I lost track of what is going on. 

Woah...look out next week SMI. 

It will be all "model head-fakes" here again, like the last 2 feet of snow shown. 

7 hours ago, Ferndale_man said:

If it does get colder, probably a big chance for lake effect snows since there is hardly any ice .  I think they were saying DTW recorded .2 inches of snow in January so far! 

I swear, DTW must manufacture some of their own snow. I'm just 8 miles north, and the most I had was one day with a T in the morning and a T in the evening. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Took the temp anomaly for the 12Z Euro and the 12Z GFS for Omaha and averaged it out to the end of each run.

12Z Euro next 10 days: -.1 degrees below average 

12Z GFS next 10 days: -4.6 degrees below average 

Will the “trash” model that everyone loves to hate, that shows it being below average, but nothing that extreme below normal, be right?
Or will the “king” and it’s nearly exactly average temperatures be right?

[westMJim]

Good morning. West Michigan now has had 23 days in a row of above average temperatures. There has not been a day with the high colder than 32 since December 28th  While there was 1 day with a reported 1’ of snow on the ground at GRR, here at my house there has not been a day with more than a trace on the ground since December 29th.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 42/34 there was 0.35” of rain fall and a trace of snow fall. There was no sunshine yesterday. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record was a warm 64 way back in 1906 the record low was -15 in 1984 the record snow all of 6.8” fell in 1963. The overnight low and current temperature so far is 33 and at this time there is light snow falling and there is a trace of snow on the tops of cars here in my area. At this time there looks to be a chance of some snow on Sunday and maybe more so on next Wednesday. There is also a good chance of a week or so of below average temperatures but then there looks to be a warmup at the start of February.

[chescowxman]

Total rain from yesterday was 0.93". Today will turn windy with some sun but more clouds by PM. Tomorrow is on average the coldest day of the year...however this year we should reach well into the upper 30's to near 40 with partly sunny skies.

Next rain event arrives on Sunday night into Monday AM. Otherwise another snow/rain chance by Tuesday night into Wednesday as our very active pattern continues.

The record high for today is 67 degrees from 1951. Our record low is 8 below zero from 1984. Daily precipitation mark is 2.18" from 1979. The daily snow record is the 5.5" of snow that fell today back in 2000.

[Clinton]

7 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Took the temp anomaly for the 12Z Euro and the 12Z GFS for Omaha and averaged it out to the end of each run.

12Z Euro next 10 days: -.1 degrees below average 

12Z GFS next 10 days: -4.6 degrees below average 

Will the “trash” model that everyone loves to hate, that shows it being below average, but nothing that extreme below normal, be right?
Or will the “king” and it’s nearly exactly average temperatures be right?

What, no love for the CMC lol.  The GFS certainly has it's issues but around here it not only gets blamed for the mistakes it makes, it also gets blamed for the mistakes the other models make as well.  It is everyone's whipping boy,

[WinterSquall23]

20 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Things should mostly quiet down for FSD again until the week of January 30th-February 3rd, when I would expect our next storm system to move through the area. As Mike alluded to above, that would align fairly closely with the storms on 10/26-10/27 and 12/13-12/14. Both of those systems were fairly pronounced and carried pretty decent moisture.

Until then, I'm crossing my fingers that this more suppressed jet can deliver some goods to the southern/eastern members that have up to this point largely missed out on the winter fun. Hope it works out!

Yeah Detroit area has been on the bench for a while.  Time to get in back in the game ! Will winter let us play this week. ? 

[WinterSquall23]

18 minutes ago, Clinton said:

What, no love for the CMC lol.  The GFS certainly has it's issues but around here it not only gets blamed for the mistakes it makes, it also gets blamed for the mistakes the other models make as well.  It is everyone's whipping boy,

I’ve got a model that works 100 % of the time. It called the GLOW model.  Only model I had when I was a kid.  Go Look Out the Window. Cosequently , some peeps on the West Coast rely on it heavily. Street lights make it more effective.  Think I might revert back to that. Less stress.  Lol!  

[Tom]

Is Mother Nature about to Flip the Switch?  Are the models digesting the high lat blocking?  Is the SSW event going to displace the Polar Vortex?  What happens next?  I've been patiently waiting for a REAL winter like pattern to develop this month and it's finally getting recognized in the model world.  Unfortunately, most of us on here had to wait a very long time (except for those of you up north) for Winter to really get its act together and it appears a "Back Loaded Winter" is likely again this season.  

While we are in the midst of an extended JAN Thaw (23 AN days and counting in Chicago), there are much more clearer LR signals that Ol' Man Winter is on the verge of a Big comeback that will have extended legs and finish off MET Winter with a Bang.  I'm not here to sugar coat or hype (as some on here say), just stating the facts and the knowledge behind using the LRC, among other LR forecasting tools to predict the future weather.  Lot's of us on here are winter wx enthusiasts who seek to find + signs for wintry weather.  In fact, it's literally a part of my daily routine to filter through the data and come up with a possible solution or outcome.  This hobby can be very frustrating OR very exciting...OR...its just a loving passion of following the weather.  With that being said, here are my thoughts of where we could be heading.

The first big clue that will create an extended period of winter is the notable and robust SSW event that will take place later this month...notice where the PV gets displaced...right over Scandinavia.  Prime location for North America.

 

The 2nd clue is the high lat blocking that will return in the month of FEB and the LRC is an important tool to use where to predict this blocking.  The Baffin Bay Ridge and Greenland Block were both big players in the Autumn and at times in DEC but was more or less transient last month.  In my opinion, the blocking will re-appear and hold together for a longer period.  Is the CFSv2 getting a clue???  Look at the trends over the last 15 runs and its clear there is a -AO/-NAO pattern that blossoms in tandem.  Is the SSW event the culprit?  Sure, I do believe it is part of the developing pattern.

 

The next 2 weeks will feature a wave train as the pattern blocks up and numerous chances for snow begin to show up in the modeling.  Both the 0z GEFS/EPS are showcasing a solid SW Flow pattern along with a bonafide colder pattern that becomes a sufficient snow producer as we get past the mid week system next week.  I'm seeing another interesting pattern during the 28th-31st to close out JAN as Major Arctic cold bleeds south and "fights" the SER.  There will be multiple waves that track underneath the "Belly of the Beast"....AKA...the North American Vortex before the early FEB Big Dog shows up.  Things are about to ramp up Big Time and it's about Dang Time!  At the end of the day, all we can do is sit back and watch what Mother Nature will do.  What I think may not be the end result, but I will say, I'm pretty darn confident that many of us on here will have a lot of Snow OTG by next month.  Hopefully its your back yard! 

Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow...

06z GEFS...

 

0z EPS...

[tStacsh]

There is a weird white substance falling from the sky today.   It has left a trace of it on the ground.  

[MIKEKC]

COME ON GFS....the o6z run had winter written all over it. 

[mlgamer]

As things stand I don't expect to get much if anything out of either the Jan 21-22 or Jan 24-26 systems. Holding at 3.1" of snow for the season and probably will stay close to that for the time being.

[tStacsh]

For the first time since record keeping began, all observed high temperatures from Jan 1-18 have all been 32 degrees or warmer in Grand Rapids. That record has now been extended to Jan 20th.  

[WinterSquall23]

Are we ready???

[Clinton]

40 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

As things stand I don't expect to get much if anything out of either the Jan 21-22 or Jan 24-26 systems. Holding at 3.1" of snow for the season and probably will stay close to that for the time being.

It's going to be a close call for you with the 24th-26th storm.  I hope you end up on the right side of things.  We had a wet storm come up from the Gulf in November seems like the I-70 corridor did well. 

[mlgamer]

39 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It's going to be a close call for you with the 24th-26th storm.  I hope you end up on the right side of things.  We had a wet storm come up from the Gulf in November seems like the I-70 corridor did well. 

That sounds to me like the Nov 26/27 storm which gave me 0.40" of rain and much higher amounts to my south and east towards your way. I'm kinda lost on the LRC cycle length so I don't know if that matches up or not. I did ride the edge on that one. Never a dull moment, huh...lol

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

That sounds to me like the Nov 26/27 storm which gave me 0.40" of rain and much higher amounts to my south and east towards your way. I'm kinda lost on the LRC cycle length so I don't know if that matches up or not. I did ride the edge on that one. Never a dull moment, huh...lol

Not an LRC match but similar type storm, unless @Tomsees something different.  It would be a week late but it sure looks like it.  Crazy how you have lived on the edge with storms.  When I was younger it seemed like the shoe was on the other foot and your area was a magnet for storms and I was always on the edge.

[mlgamer]

Just now, Clinton said:

Not an LRC match but similar type storm, unless @Tomsees something different.  It would be a week late but it sure looks like it.  Crazy how you have lived on the edge with storms.  When I was younger it seemed like the shoe was on the other foot and your area was a magnet for storms and I was always on the edge.

Yeah, it didn't seem like an LRC match to me but it was definitely a wet storm that looked similar to this one.

Another thing is it seemed the severe weather also shifted away to the east along with the snow. We always had lots of severe weather to go along with the snowy winters back in the day. We've had not much of either overall for seemingly 20-30 years now.

[Tom]

Today's 12z suite of model runs are very encouraging for a lot of us who have been sitting on the sidelines and patiently waiting for Ol' Man Winter to return.  Per the latest 12z Euro, here comes the wave train...is JAN 21st going to be the day when the tides have turned???

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro showing the cold coming south at the end of the run.  Looks like there may also be some storminess towards the end also.

[Clinton]

10 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Euro showing the cold coming south at the end of the run.  Looks like there may also be some storminess towards the end also.

Big Big Big storm at the end of the month and to start February.  It will be fun to watch it evolve on the models.