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January 2023 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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The outlook is bleak for those who get missed by this week's storm.  There was hope a cutter pattern could deliver, but that's fading, at least on the op runs.

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season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Texas is locked into this dry windy pattern.  Fire warnings in January. 

We have a 40% chance of rain Saturday with a high of 56.  Fire warning and burn bans will continue as they are not expecting enough rain to cancel the fire hazard. 

A front is blowing through this evening with a High tomorrow of 59, Low 39.  No rain however. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Maybe LOT is buying into the GFS

 

Signal in model guidance remains mixed regarding the evolution of
a Saturday night - Sunday disturbance, but seemingly trending
towards some higher snow chances in our region. A very deep upper
trough is slated to progress east across the central CONUS and
Great Lakes region and currently looks progressive with an overall
positive tilt. It`s certainly looking cold enough aloft to foster
pockets of elevated instability and forcing will be in plentiful
supply--if only for a brief period. Will be a period to watch
since it looks like surface temps would be receptive to snow
accumulations and moisture content will be elevated owing to the
Pacific origin of the southern stream segment.
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4 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Near normal temps in long range and no snow.  If we keep hoping for snow and cold, eventually it will just be spring.  

Yeah, now that map @Tom was flashing has a bunch of warmth here until it finally (last state to lose the heat) gets BN after the 27th. It'll be colder relative to avg in AMJ just watch!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Models have been struggling a little bit with next weeks pattern but the 0z GFS and CMC both showing a nice storm ejecting from the Texas Panhandle and moving up the Ohio Valley around the 25th that seems to fit well with Toms expectations.  I'm sure more model wobbling to come and we are far from a final solution but it looks like a major snow storm stretching from Oklahoma into the lakes region.  Could be the first major storm of the winter for some.

0z GFS with the first weaker wave

1674540000-6sOhXDe3bqY.png

The second and stronger storm on the 25th and 26th.

1674723600-GtslDqh5ZcQ.png

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The over all very mild January weather continues. Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 46/37 that 46 was the 9th warmest maximum for the day and the low of 37 was the 4th warmest low for the day. There was a cold rain/mist for most of the day with a total of 0.06” of rain fall. There was no snow fall and no sunshine.  For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 60 was set in 1996 and the record low of -15 was set in 1994 The record snow fall amount of 8” fell in 1960. The overnight low so far for today is a mild 37 for yet another mild night. Today should become dry but remain cloudy. Tonight the rain that may mix with some snow or ice will move in and it looks like rain will be the rule for most of tomorrow. Todays high should be near 40 and the low tonight should be in the low to mid 30’s tomorrow the high should be in the low 40’s with rain. Next 5 days while cooler then it has been will still be above average with highs mostly in the 30’s and lows in the upper 20’s and several chances of rain or snow but no big systems.

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Cloudy and very mild for mid January today with highs in the upper 40's. A rainy day on tap tomorrow with up to 3/4 inches of rain possible. We chill down to closer but still above normal temps for the weekend with the chance of snow arriving later Sunday quickly changing to rain. Another chance of at least some wintry weather is possible later next Wednesday.
Our record high for today is a springlike 66 degrees today back in 1973. The record low was 4 below zero from 1994. Record precipitation is the 1.15" from 1915. Our daily snow record is the 6" today in 1930.
image.png.11845f4a42e0902f3de86b358157d223.png

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters.  Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Well, did the GFS/GEFS just score a coupe for the weekend appetizer??  You win some, you loose some...but the King just caved per the GFS on this system and it should fill up the snow starved Plains/MW/Lower Lakes region with some snowfall. while the NFL Playoff season begins!  Not bad timing I'd say??

Alright, alright, alright...let's see what we have going on in the model world for the Big Dog potential later next week.  Last night's 0z EPS starting to turn the corner and veering away from and EC storm and more so towards my idea of a deep GOM Low that cuts up thru the S MW/OHV region and will possibly bomb out somewhere over this region.   My gut tells me that with the -NAO dipping during this period along with a tanking -EPO, the teleconnections favor a deepening/strengthening storm coming out of the Deep S Plains/TX/OK region and cutting NNE up thru the OHV.  Let's take a look at the ensembles...

0z EPS...chances of snow are on the rise for our KC peeps and down in OKIE land @Iceresistance @Black Hole @OKwx2k4

 

image.gif

 

What an impressive NE PAC ridge that drives the energy deep into the southern states and this allows for a GOM SLP to form and literally track almost due north.  I like the grouping of the ensembles coming more into more focus for a major storm to cut up the OHV or S MW region.  Lot's of time to pin down the details but this system has BOMB potential similar to what "coulda", or rather, "shoulda" happened during the Christmas storm but that eventually bombed out over Ontario Canada.  Not this time, however, due to the key blocks setting up downstream and upstream.  Nevertheless, this storm has been on my calendar for a long time and it's nice to see the Global Op's starting to sniff it out.

 

image.gif

 

0z Euro Control....

1.png

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GFS, ICON, CMC, and EURO all show accumulating snow here in KC later Saturday and into Saturday night! 90 hours out...

COME ON DATA, stay steady. OMG do we need a little winter fun around here. 

The GFS model has been consistent since Dec. 28th on showing a warmer and wetter pattern for KC. Models are guidance outside of 5 days, and this model has not shown a wintry pattern for KC in sometime. I think and am hopeful that is about to change and winter comes to greet us again. For you folks north of KC, WOW, what a snow season so far. I know, not everyone north of KC, but, a lot of members have had a busy winter. Here in KC, we have had a busy fall and winter of storms, great moisture, just missing the cold. Sitting at 1" or so for the season. Again, 2 Quarter and we have thrown 4 INT's. Plenty of game left....

So, for KC, how about a Chiefs win and 2-4 inches of snow Saturday evening and Saturday night. 

Next week's storm, I don't know, some eye candy data out there, but the EURO and GFS 6z lost it to the SE of Missouri. 

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34 minutes ago, Tom said:

I see you, "Oh Canada"....the 12z ICON is seeing it also...GFS sorta lost it over our region but that's typical of it to go back n forth...Let's see what the UKIE and EURO have to say.

12z GGEM...

snku_acc-imp.us_c.png

 

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

 

Imo this is where the LRC is the most useful, it helps sort through the model mayhem. 

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Appreciate the thoughts you all have shared. Certainly some model noise but that system around the 24th (or so) has the most potential. The CMC really wallops my area with good wrap around. Hopefully as Tom noted, things will set up for a further south track so I can get in on more of the fun this round. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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I'm sitting at around 2" for the season. We never get much down here, but that seems below what you would expect by this point in the season. Perhaps we'll even it out. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Euro at least now has the weekend system that the GFS first advertised.  It's weak, but it's something.  Of course this one is missing just to my south on the Euro.  The GFS has been consistently showing this a little further north, so I hope the Euro is still playing catchup.

 

snku_024h-imp.us_c.png

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7 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Yup.  There's going to be a pink streak on the maps to the north and south of us.  We'll get some light slop Saturday night, which will be gone in 24 hours.  If KC is good at anything, it's good at missing snow.

When I look at the CMC that's not what I'm seeing.  Things are about to be way different around here.  ICON just came out with snow falling during the Chiefs game which should make @MIKEKChappy and me too I will be there Saturday also.

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56 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

You haven't seen the 12z Euro, @Andie get smacked!

No, I hadn't  Been up to my eyebrows in stuff to do. 

Awesome, bring on the rain!!  We are so dry.  Seems it's famine or feast. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I should have followed the JMA in regards to the MJO.   It is routinely the best at forecasting the MJO, and I bit on the Euro and GEFS agreement that the MJO would move into phase 8 around the 11th.  The JMA was the only model that kept the MJO in the Null phase after exiting the warm phases 6 and 7 thus extending the warmth later than I anticipated.  Today it moved into phase 2 which combined with the NAO and EPO being negative will likely flip the script next week.  Shame on me and I'm sorry JMA!

JMAN.png

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19 minutes ago, Andie said:

No, I hadn't  Been up to my eyebrows in stuff to do. 

Awesome, bring on the rain!!  We are so dry.  Seems it's famine or feast. 

It's not the rain, the Euro dumps up to 16 inches of snow to the west of DFW!

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

Well, did the GFS/GEFS just score a coupe for the weekend appetizer??  You win some, you loose some...but the King just caved per the GFS on this system and it should fill up the snow starved Plains/MW/Lower Lakes region with some snowfall. while the NFL Playoff season begins!  Not bad timing I'd say??

Alright, alright, alright...let's see what we have going on in the model world for the Big Dog potential later next week.  Last night's 0z EPS starting to turn the corner and veering away from and EC storm and more so towards my idea of a deep GOM Low that cuts up thru the S MW/OHV region and will possibly bomb out somewhere over this region.   My gut tells me that with the -NAO dipping during this period along with a tanking -EPO, the teleconnections favor a deepening/strengthening storm coming out of the Deep S Plains/TX/OK region and cutting NNE up thru the OHV.  Let's take a look at the ensembles...

0z EPS...chances of snow are on the rise for our KC peeps and down in OKIE land @Iceresistance @Black Hole @OKwx2k4

 

image.gif

 

What an impressive NE PAC ridge that drives the energy deep into the southern states and this allows for a GOM SLP to form and literally track almost due north.  I like the grouping of the ensembles coming more into more focus for a major storm to cut up the OHV or S MW region.  Lot's of time to pin down the details but this system has BOMB potential similar to what "coulda", or rather, "shoulda" happened during the Christmas storm but that eventually bombed out over Ontario Canada.  Not this time, however, due to the key blocks setting up downstream and upstream.  Nevertheless, this storm has been on my calendar for a long time and it's nice to see the Global Op's starting to sniff it out.

 

image.gif

 

0z Euro Control....

1.png

Becomes a true powerhouse for the St. Lawarence Seaway region. Still decent for us verbatim ofc. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

When I look at the CMC that's not what I'm seeing.  Things are about to be way different around here.  ICON just came out with snow falling during the Chiefs game which should make @MIKEKChappy and me too I will be there Saturday also.

The CMC and ICON vs the EURO days 3-7? Yeah, I know which one I’m taking.

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30 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

The CMC and ICON vs the EURO days 3-7? Yeah, I know which one I’m taking.

I'll say this for the CMC, other than it overdoing snowfall totals which we are all aware of.  It's ability to sniff out pattern changes and storm placement since the upgrade it's done a good job. 

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3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

It's not the rain, the Euro dumps up to 16 inches of snow to the west of DFW!

That’s impressive.  Am I right to assume DFW gets cold rain?   
Where is the snow target?  How far west? 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Thanks!  I believe even I can make sense of this.  👍

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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so nice having more events to track and snow on the ground rather than weeks of brown grass and doldrum syndrome.

Just fun going from one event to the next- I don't even care if it snows or not, just having an active period is better than what transpired over the last 3+ weeks.  Finally!!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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