January 2023 Observations and Discussions

[winterfreak]

A whiff to the north tomorrow and a whiff to the south and east next week. Just…lol. Incredible.

[Clinton]

Models have been struggling a little bit with next weeks pattern but the 0z GFS and CMC both showing a nice storm ejecting from the Texas Panhandle and moving up the Ohio Valley around the 25th that seems to fit well with Toms expectations.  I'm sure more model wobbling to come and we are far from a final solution but it looks like a major snow storm stretching from Oklahoma into the lakes region.  Could be the first major storm of the winter for some.

0z GFS with the first weaker wave

The second and stronger storm on the 25th and 26th.

[gabel23]

I pray that this spreads the wealth to the rest of you that misses out tomorrow. Everyone is over due and that would just make the rest of the winter go so much better!

[Grizzcoat]

Sat/Sun 06Z GFS 24hr totals-

[westMJim]

The over all very mild January weather continues. Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 46/37 that 46 was the 9th warmest maximum for the day and the low of 37 was the 4th warmest low for the day. There was a cold rain/mist for most of the day with a total of 0.06” of rain fall. There was no snow fall and no sunshine.  For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 60 was set in 1996 and the record low of -15 was set in 1994 The record snow fall amount of 8” fell in 1960. The overnight low so far for today is a mild 37 for yet another mild night. Today should become dry but remain cloudy. Tonight the rain that may mix with some snow or ice will move in and it looks like rain will be the rule for most of tomorrow. Todays high should be near 40 and the low tonight should be in the low to mid 30’s tomorrow the high should be in the low 40’s with rain. Next 5 days while cooler then it has been will still be above average with highs mostly in the 30’s and lows in the upper 20’s and several chances of rain or snow but no big systems.

[chescowxman]

Cloudy and very mild for mid January today with highs in the upper 40's. A rainy day on tap tomorrow with up to 3/4 inches of rain possible. We chill down to closer but still above normal temps for the weekend with the chance of snow arriving later Sunday quickly changing to rain. Another chance of at least some wintry weather is possible later next Wednesday.

Our record high for today is a springlike 66 degrees today back in 1973. The record low was 4 below zero from 1994. Record precipitation is the 1.15" from 1915. Our daily snow record is the 6" today in 1930.

[Tom]

Well, did the GFS/GEFS just score a coupe for the weekend appetizer??  You win some, you loose some...but the King just caved per the GFS on this system and it should fill up the snow starved Plains/MW/Lower Lakes region with some snowfall. while the NFL Playoff season begins!  Not bad timing I'd say??

Alright, alright, alright...let's see what we have going on in the model world for the Big Dog potential later next week.  Last night's 0z EPS starting to turn the corner and veering away from and EC storm and more so towards my idea of a deep GOM Low that cuts up thru the S MW/OHV region and will possibly bomb out somewhere over this region.   My gut tells me that with the -NAO dipping during this period along with a tanking -EPO, the teleconnections favor a deepening/strengthening storm coming out of the Deep S Plains/TX/OK region and cutting NNE up thru the OHV.  Let's take a look at the ensembles...

0z EPS...chances of snow are on the rise for our KC peeps and down in OKIE land @Iceresistance @Black Hole @OKwx2k4

 

 

What an impressive NE PAC ridge that drives the energy deep into the southern states and this allows for a GOM SLP to form and literally track almost due north.  I like the grouping of the ensembles coming more into more focus for a major storm to cut up the OHV or S MW region.  Lot's of time to pin down the details but this system has BOMB potential similar to what "coulda", or rather, "shoulda" happened during the Christmas storm but that eventually bombed out over Ontario Canada.  Not this time, however, due to the key blocks setting up downstream and upstream.  Nevertheless, this storm has been on my calendar for a long time and it's nice to see the Global Op's starting to sniff it out.

 

 

0z Euro Control....

[MIKEKC]

GFS, ICON, CMC, and EURO all show accumulating snow here in KC later Saturday and into Saturday night! 90 hours out...

COME ON DATA, stay steady. OMG do we need a little winter fun around here. 

The GFS model has been consistent since Dec. 28th on showing a warmer and wetter pattern for KC. Models are guidance outside of 5 days, and this model has not shown a wintry pattern for KC in sometime. I think and am hopeful that is about to change and winter comes to greet us again. For you folks north of KC, WOW, what a snow season so far. I know, not everyone north of KC, but, a lot of members have had a busy winter. Here in KC, we have had a busy fall and winter of storms, great moisture, just missing the cold. Sitting at 1" or so for the season. Again, 2 Quarter and we have thrown 4 INT's. Plenty of game left....

So, for KC, how about a Chiefs win and 2-4 inches of snow Saturday evening and Saturday night. 

Next week's storm, I don't know, some eye candy data out there, but the EURO and GFS 6z lost it to the SE of Missouri. 

[sumweatherdude]

For January 1-16, KC has had more 50+ degree days this year than any other January 1-16 in recorded history. And the second most 60+ degree days.  We're also running the 14th least snowy winter on record.  January 2023 is running 12.3 degrees above normal.  To put it in perspective, December 2021 (remember that torch month) we ended up 10 degrees above normal. 

If the GFS is correct, KC will likely end up with one of its warmest ever Januarys.  If the Canadian is correct, we'll balance out some of this warmth, but I'd bet almost any amount of money we'll end up well above normal regardless of which model is correct.  To add insult to injury, it looks like the two major snowstorms of January will miss KC to the north and then to the south. 

[Tom]

I see you, "Oh Canada"....the 12z ICON is seeing it also...GFS sorta lost it over our region but that's typical of it to go back n forth...Let's see what the UKIE and EURO have to say.

12z GGEM...

 

 

[Clinton]

34 minutes ago, Tom said:

I see you, "Oh Canada"....the 12z ICON is seeing it also...GFS sorta lost it over our region but that's typical of it to go back n forth...Let's see what the UKIE and EURO have to say.

12z GGEM...

 

 

Imo this is where the LRC is the most useful, it helps sort through the model mayhem. 

[Black Hole]

Appreciate the thoughts you all have shared. Certainly some model noise but that system around the 24th (or so) has the most potential. The CMC really wallops my area with good wrap around. Hopefully as Tom noted, things will set up for a further south track so I can get in on more of the fun this round. 

[Black Hole]

I'm sitting at around 2" for the season. We never get much down here, but that seems below what you would expect by this point in the season. Perhaps we'll even it out. 

[bud2380]

Euro at least now has the weekend system that the GFS first advertised.  It's weak, but it's something.  Of course this one is missing just to my south on the Euro.  The GFS has been consistently showing this a little further north, so I hope the Euro is still playing catchup.

 

[winterfreak]

EURO locked into a southern slider.

[Tom]

12z EPS caved to the GEFS for the weekend system and pretty much have a similar snow band from CO/KS up thru the Lower Lakes...

More importantly, the 24th-26th system is still showing + signs from TX/OK up thru the OHV...

[Tom]

12z Euro Control still has it...

[Iceresistance]

24 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro Control still has it...

You haven't seen the 12z Euro, @Andie get smacked!

[tStacsh]

Please Euro keep going south.  Would love to keep this streak of NO snow alive all January.   Would be epic.  

[sumweatherdude]

2 hours ago, winterfreak said:

EURO locked into a southern slider.

Yup.  There's going to be a pink streak on the maps to the north and south of us.  We'll get some light slop Saturday night, which will be gone in 24 hours.  If KC is good at anything, it's good at missing snow.

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Yup.  There's going to be a pink streak on the maps to the north and south of us.  We'll get some light slop Saturday night, which will be gone in 24 hours.  If KC is good at anything, it's good at missing snow.

When I look at the CMC that's not what I'm seeing.  Things are about to be way different around here.  ICON just came out with snow falling during the Chiefs game which should make @MIKEKChappy and me too I will be there Saturday also.

[Andie]

56 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

You haven't seen the 12z Euro, @Andie get smacked!

No, I hadn't  Been up to my eyebrows in stuff to do. 

Awesome, bring on the rain!!  We are so dry.  Seems it's famine or feast. 

[sumweatherdude]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

When I look at the CMC that's not what I'm seeing.  Things are about to be way different around here.  ICON just came out with snow falling during the Chiefs game which should make @MIKEKChappy and me too I will be there Saturday also.

Look, you know I love snow.  And I always HOPE that the optimistic people around here are correct.  But look at the ICON's actual snowfall totals.  Maybe an inch south of the river?  And it will be sloppy because we'll be right around freezing. 

Then the real storm following that will miss us.  I know the Canadian is more optimistic, but it's the northerly outlier.  I would love for it to be correct, but there's no reason to believe it will be.  

Have fun at the game BTW!  Hopefully they'll be back here next week too.  Love going to Arrowhead.  

[Clinton]

I should have followed the JMA in regards to the MJO.   It is routinely the best at forecasting the MJO, and I bit on the Euro and GEFS agreement that the MJO would move into phase 8 around the 11th.  The JMA was the only model that kept the MJO in the Null phase after exiting the warm phases 6 and 7 thus extending the warmth later than I anticipated.  Today it moved into phase 2 which combined with the NAO and EPO being negative will likely flip the script next week.  Shame on me and I'm sorry JMA!

[Iceresistance]

19 minutes ago, Andie said:

No, I hadn't  Been up to my eyebrows in stuff to do. 

Awesome, bring on the rain!!  We are so dry.  Seems it's famine or feast. 

It's not the rain, the Euro dumps up to 16 inches of snow to the west of DFW!

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

Well, did the GFS/GEFS just score a coupe for the weekend appetizer??  You win some, you loose some...but the King just caved per the GFS on this system and it should fill up the snow starved Plains/MW/Lower Lakes region with some snowfall. while the NFL Playoff season begins!  Not bad timing I'd say??

Alright, alright, alright...let's see what we have going on in the model world for the Big Dog potential later next week.  Last night's 0z EPS starting to turn the corner and veering away from and EC storm and more so towards my idea of a deep GOM Low that cuts up thru the S MW/OHV region and will possibly bomb out somewhere over this region.   My gut tells me that with the -NAO dipping during this period along with a tanking -EPO, the teleconnections favor a deepening/strengthening storm coming out of the Deep S Plains/TX/OK region and cutting NNE up thru the OHV.  Let's take a look at the ensembles...

0z EPS...chances of snow are on the rise for our KC peeps and down in OKIE land @Iceresistance @Black Hole @OKwx2k4

 

 

What an impressive NE PAC ridge that drives the energy deep into the southern states and this allows for a GOM SLP to form and literally track almost due north.  I like the grouping of the ensembles coming more into more focus for a major storm to cut up the OHV or S MW region.  Lot's of time to pin down the details but this system has BOMB potential similar to what "coulda", or rather, "shoulda" happened during the Christmas storm but that eventually bombed out over Ontario Canada.  Not this time, however, due to the key blocks setting up downstream and upstream.  Nevertheless, this storm has been on my calendar for a long time and it's nice to see the Global Op's starting to sniff it out.

 

 

0z Euro Control....

Becomes a true powerhouse for the St. Lawarence Seaway region. Still decent for us verbatim ofc. 

[winterfreak]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

When I look at the CMC that's not what I'm seeing.  Things are about to be way different around here.  ICON just came out with snow falling during the Chiefs game which should make @MIKEKChappy and me too I will be there Saturday also.

The CMC and ICON vs the EURO days 3-7? Yeah, I know which one I’m taking.

[Clinton]

30 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

The CMC and ICON vs the EURO days 3-7? Yeah, I know which one I’m taking.

I'll say this for the CMC, other than it overdoing snowfall totals which we are all aware of.  It's ability to sniff out pattern changes and storm placement since the upgrade it's done a good job. 

[Andie]

3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

It's not the rain, the Euro dumps up to 16 inches of snow to the west of DFW!

That’s impressive.  Am I right to assume DFW gets cold rain?   
Where is the snow target?  How far west? 

[Clinton]

Here is where the Euro will either be right or wrong, the stronger blocking favors the trough being further west.  The LRC favors strong blocking the last week of the month and February, I'll side with the CMC.

Euro NAO:

CMC NAO:

 

[Andie]

Thanks!  I believe even I can make sense of this.  

[Clinton]

0z models looking good for a series of storms moving out of the southern plains and lifting north across the Ohio Valley.  With the storm on the 25th doing most of the work.

0z ICON:

0z GFS

0z CMC:

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

so nice having more events to track and snow on the ground rather than weeks of brown grass and doldrum syndrome.

Just fun going from one event to the next- I don't even care if it snows or not, just having an active period is better than what transpired over the last 3+ weeks.  Finally!!!

[Clinton]

0z EPS Mean looking better but the operational is still the eastern outlier.

[Clinton]

6z GFS keeps going NW

[westMJim]

All of the snow with this system is to the west and north of west Michigan. 

This January has been very warm and it looks like the last week will determine just how it will rank in the warmest and least snowy on record. So far this month has a mean of 34.6 at Grand Rapids and just 0.6” of snow fall. The record warmest in history is 34.2 and the least snow fall is 0.8”.  Yesterday the official H/L was 38/34 there was 0.01” of rain fall and no snow and no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 56 was in 1907 and the record low of -22 was in 1994. The record snow fall of 6.4” fell in 2003. There has been a cold rain falling overnight and with a east wind blowing with guest of up to 33MPH there is a chill in the air. At the current time there is light rain falling with a temperature of 36. Today will be a breezy and wet day with highs in the low 40’s expected. The dry slot will arrive later this morning before some warm around moves in later today and that could also become some snow as colder air moves in.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

6z GFS keeps going NW

Overall, I think both the ICON and CMC have been handling this system at 500mb level the best.  As we have seen many times this season, the strong ULL troughs that eject out into the TX Panhandle have been juicy and intensify as they move east.  I'm liking the trends off the EPS/GEPS/GEFS for this to be our next big storm to track.

0z Euro Control still has a storm...

 

 

Meantime, a nice little weekend snow event coming together for both of our regions....might put up a thread for this later today since a number of our members around KC/S IA/N IL/IN/ into the lower MI should be seeing snow from this event.

 

06z RDPS...

 

 

[MIKEKC]

30 minutes ago, Tom said:

Overall, I think both the ICON and CMC have been handling this system at 500mb level the best.  As we have seen many times this season, the strong ULL troughs that eject out into the TX Panhandle have been juicy and intensify as they move east.  I'm liking the trends off the EPS/GEPS/GEFS for this to be our next big storm to track.

0z Euro Control still has a storm...

 

 

Meantime, a nice little weekend snow event coming together for both of our regions....might put up a thread for this later today since a number of our members around KC/S IA/N IL/IN/ into the lower MI should be seeing snow from this event.

 

06z RDPS...

 

 

There is a trend for KC to be quite snowy later Saturday into Saturday night and Tuesday/Wed next week... It trended north overnight with the heaviest bands. This storm looks decent as there are WSW out in western KS. already. Temps will be marginal again so we'll have to see how that sets up. IF we can get most of it to fall late Saturday into night time, obviously, we'll have a shot at better accumulations. 

I'm going to stay positive that we get hit with 1 of them and hopefully two of them as the snow might have some staying power as it looks much colder next week.

 

[MIKEKC]

BTW....it's snowing in KC this morning. These are the first flakes of snow I have seen this month near my house. 

That's the ice breaker, now the snow will be easy On Saturday and Tuesday next week....Right???

[Tom]

It has been a number of years since we had a "real deal" SSW event that dislodged the Polar Vortex off the Pole into a favorable position to seed North America with very cold air.  This should drive the pattern next month and I'm anticipating a -AO block to develop over the pole.  Something the Euro OP/EPS are missing at the moment, however, the Canadian and GEFS are seeing the blocking over the Pole and Greenland.  This is going to be a crucial part of the pattern as we head into the opening week of FEB.  My money at this range is on the Canadian bc of the way its handling the high lat blocking.  After a major SSW event we usually see extensive high lat blocking and this is where the models could be very sketchy in the LR.  I'm seeing the CFSv2 weeklies picking up on it as well and locking a long term long wave trough over the Central CONUS.  Needless to say, we do have ourselves a solid extended period of wintry weather as we move through JAN into FEB.

 

[MIKEKC]

12 hours ago, winterfreak said:

The CMC and ICON vs the EURO days 3-7? Yeah, I know which one I’m taking.

The EURO has not been that accurate for KC IMO, it has shown a lot of accumulating snow in the the 5-day window the last month or so.  Just last Friday, it showed this most recent snow storm hitting KC. It also forecasted 36 hours out that we would see a few inches of snow mid last week only to miss us to the south into Missouri. 

It has been a busy fall/winter of storms, we were in a major drought in Mid October, now, plenty of soil moisture. I'm up to 2.13 inches of rain for Jan. I have had over 8 inches of rain since late October. Great winter moisture, now, let's get a back loaded winter going!!!

[chescowxman]

A chilly wet day on tap today across the area. As of 8am we had already received 0.15" of rain and look for another 0.25" to 0.50" during the day today. Tomorrow looks like the warmest day of the week with highs in the mid-40's. Slightly above normal temps should continue for the next 7 days. Of note this is on average the coldest 7 day stretch of the winter season across Chester County. It looks like we still could see some wet snow arriving on Sunday afternoon especially across the higher western spots in the county. This should change to a cold rain before ending toward midnight. Another storm could start as snow on Tuesday night before mixing with and changing to a cold rain before ending on Wednesday.

The record high for today is 67 degrees set in 1951. Our record low occurred on what was also the coldest day in Chester County history with a high temperature of 1 below zero after a record AM low of 11 degrees below zero back on this date in 1994. Daily precipitation record is the 1.91" that fell in 1996. Record daily snow is the 13.0" that fell on this date in 1961.

[Black Hole]

27 minutes ago, Tom said:

It has been a number of years since we had a "real deal" SSW event that dislodged the Polar Vortex off the Pole into a favorable position to seed North America with very cold air.  This should drive the pattern next month and I'm anticipating a -AO block to develop over the pole.  Something the Euro OP/EPS are missing at the moment, however, the Canadian and GEFS are seeing the blocking over the Pole and Greenland.  This is going to be a crucial part of the pattern as we head into the opening week of FEB.  My money at this range is on the Canadian bc of the way its handling the high lat blocking.  After a major SSW event we usually see extensive high lat blocking and this is where the models could be very sketchy in the LR.  I'm seeing the CFSv2 weeklies picking up on it as well and locking a long term long wave trough over the Central CONUS.  Needless to say, we do have ourselves a solid extended period of wintry weather as we move through JAN into FEB.

 

Once we get past the pair of systems over the next week, this will be the thing to watch. Climatology says it usually puts us in a good position for winter (and its been 2 years since the last one). So I similarly expect that as this unfolds models will have some big adjustments to do in the longer range. Not sure how this would interfere with the LRC but I could imagine it would just blow the whole thing up since its such dominant forcing...even stronger than ENSO!

[Black Hole]

Latest deterministic model round up for OK. Lots of uncertainty with respect to the storm track, but obviously we got snow in the vicinity with each model. CMC or ICON look the best. Ensemble means are mostly 1-2" still. Only at 2" on the year, so it'd be nice to get a good system in here. 

[Black Hole]

Latest 06Z EPS has a few huge members, and a lot of decent ones...though with plenty of blanks too. 

[tStacsh]

January 19th and still no snow this year in Grand Rapids.    Will it flip to a snowier colder pattern?   Looks to finally get colder.   How cold?  Track of storms?  Lake effect is a possibility as the great lakes are still primed for the middle of January.  All up in the air and still, always a week or so away.  

I would certainly believe we will get some light snow by Sunday night with the next system.  Will it be enough to score our first official inch of snow in the new year?   Next week's system is probably our  next best shot in SMI.   

[Niko]

I'd say, lets go for an epic january and get no snow at all. Make it historic.. Then, hopefully, Feb and Mar could provide the goods, but we all know,its January, so eventually, it will snow. 

[tStacsh]

Might be about time for a thread for the 24th-26th storm as all the models have it.      I'm bored and need something to track and read about.  Being a manager, I just sit on the internet all day...

[MIKEKC]

7 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Might be about time for a thread for the 24th-26th storm as all the models have it.      I'm bored and need something to track and read about.  Being a manager, I just sit on the internet all day...

'Being a manager, I just sit on the internet all day" LOL

Get a thread going! I agree, I need something to track even if it does not hit KC

[Niko]

Sundays little system looks to be in the 1-3 inch range. Been very busy lately, so I lost track of what is going on. 

Woah...look out next week SMI.