January 2023 Observations and Discussions

[Iceresistance]

Winter Storm Watch for most of Nebraska!

[Clinton]

18z Euro Control showing a storm at hr 144 that looks to target areas that may get missed to the north with Wednesdays storm.  Similar to the 12z GFS.

 

[Tom]

10 hours ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro Control showing a storm at hr 144 that looks to target areas that may get missed to the north with Wednesdays storm.  Similar to the 12z GFS.

 

0z Euro Control showing cutter after cutter for the MW/OHV/Lower Lakes...GEFS and EPS are also shinning light down in your neck of the woods up into IN/S MI for SUN/MON period. 

 

[westMJim]

Well the first 15 days of January are now in the record books and boy it has been one very mild start to January. There has yet to be a day this month were the mean average temperature has been below average. The last time that happened was on December 27th. The current mean at Grand Rapids is 33.9, at Lansing 34.4 and at Muskegon 36.5. If that were to hold for the rest of the month that would be the 3rd warmest January at GR the 2nd warmest at Lansing and by far the warmest at Muskegon. Also so far this month Grand Rapids has only recorded 0.6” of snow fall at Lansing it has been only 0.2” and at Muskegon only 0.1” That 0.6” of snow fell at Grand Rapids when on the night of the 6th a narrow band of snow fell in southern Grand Rapids here at my house I did not receive that band so here I only have had 0.2” of snow fall so far this month.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 40/20 there was no rain or snow fall and there was 59% of possible sunshine. The overnight low for today so far has been 33 so once again the low has stayed above 32 at the current time it is 35 here at my house. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 58 was set in 1949 and the record low of -15 was set in 1972 and 1994. The record snow fall of 5.5” fell in 1924.

[Tom]

So, while those of us farther south will be missed by this weeks Winter Storm, the pattern remains active and there are plenty of more chances to cash in on some snow.  As the North American 500mb pattern amplifies from the -EPO, and the "Arctic Air in Toe", this will produce a bonafide "Cutter Alley" across the southern half of the SUB.  My eyes have been glued to the 24th-26th period for a Big Dog and some of the ensemble members look like eye candy.  The pattern is ripe for the 4 corners energy to dig deep into TX and pull plenty of GOM moisture up north and spin up something Big in the S MW/Lower Lakes/OHV.

06z GEFS...

 

0z EPS...

 

[Tom]

The #STJ is on Fire and I'm thrilled that it is delivering the GOODS across the 4 corners desert regions.  Big time snows up in Flagstaff and this is just the beginning of a wild week.

 

 

1-2 Feet up in the mountains with much more Snow over the coming 10 days....I'm loving this pattern!

 

 

@Mr Marine Layer @IMoveALot_Weather...you guys enjoying this or what?  I see there was some good snows down in So Cal also...

 

 

Oh, ya, let's not forget Mammoth Mtn...what's another 3-4 FEET that last 2 days???  My goodness, what a freakin' season the Mountains out west that have been blessed!

[Tom]

I'm sure @judahcohen is geeking out with what is about to happen to the Polar Vortex...Major Disruption is forthcoming...

[tStacsh]

Rain this storm, then some mix to rain next storm.  Then nothing for a while except a suppressed system or two with some normal colder air moving in for this time of year.  Boring.   

[chescowxman]

Most spots across the county dropped into the lower 20's this morning. Tonight should be the last below freezing temps until Saturday morning. A couple chances of some rain first tomorrow night and then rain is likely by Thursday. Overall looks like between 0.50" and 1.00" of rain are possible by Friday. There are signs of a change in the weather patterns which may get folks talking about some snow potential as we close out the month of January.

The record high for today is 61 degrees set in 1932. The record low is 10 below zero set today in 1982. Our daily precipitation record is 1.71" from 1924. The daily snow record is the 10.0" of snow that fell today in 1945.

[MIKEKC]

Same ole story here in KC, MUCH above average temps and not a single flake of snow here in Jan. (at least that's true for my house in KC) We have had good moisture this month and we appear to have some more good rains heading this Wednesday. NOT ONE SINGLE day below average this month and it looks like all this week will be above average. Right now we are on a stretch of 21 straight days of above average temps. 

GFS has shown a warm pattern for KC almost every run since late Dec. It has been right with the warmth and lack of snow..

Latest GFS, hard to find any below average days in there. 

Hopefully we see some winter before our window closes. Can't believe it's already mid Jan. We still have plenty of game left to score. 

 

[mlgamer]

Here is the scorecard as we begin to approach the latter part of winter. It will be interesting to see how this changes in the coming days and then through the rest of the season.

Short of moving the Earth farther away from the Sun, I have no idea how to get winter going along the I-70 corridor. Seems to be a yearly problem out here in KS and MO.

 

[Hawkeye]

I hope we don't transition from this week's storm missing nw to a series of cutters missing southeast.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Rain this storm, then some mix to rain next storm.  Then nothing for a while except a suppressed system or two with some normal colder air moving in for this time of year.  Boring.   

Hard to argue

[winterfreak]

Still waiting for the pattern flip as we close out a snowless January here in KC while sitting on 1” for the season.

[chescowxman]

The 1st 15 days of 2023 are the 5th warmest start to the New Year since Chester County PA records began in 1894. Top 10 warmest are below

[westMJim]

The rain has now moved in and the current temperature here is 40.

This sure has been a very odd winter season we have now had 19 days of above average temperatures. And while Grand Rapids has had almost 70” of snow fall there now has not been any snow on the ground for 17 days at the airport it has been 18 days here at my house. Outside of the areas that received lake effect snows in November and December there is not much snow fall at all this season. Here are the seasonal total as of January 15th Grand Rapids 68.2″ Lansing 26.9″ Muskegon 24.4″ Kalamazoo 33.0″ Flint 15.8″ Saginaw 10.3″ Detroit 7.7″ South Bend 39.5″ Fort Wayne 7.1″ Buffalo NY 102.7″ and just to their east Rochester NY just 12.0″

[Tony]

12 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Still waiting for the pattern flip as we close out a snowless January here in KC while sitting on 1” for the season.

Chicago not doing any better...probably about 4" for the season. My thinking is we don't see much for the rest of this month and need to pray for a snowy February like the past couple years. 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

Chicago not doing any better...probably about 4" for the season. My thinking is we don't see much for the rest of this month and need to pray for a snowy February like the past couple years. 

I beg to differ…the SW Flow will deliver late next weekend into the following week.  Several threats on the calendar for the S MW/ Lower Lakes.  Hang in there as the pattern turns more favorable.  I see a Big Dog during the 24th-26th over our area or nearby.  Then Again, very late month into early days of FEB.

[bud2380]

Confirmed tornado on the ground near Cedar Rapids.

 

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
206 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023

IAC011-095-103-162030-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230116T2030Z/
Johnson IA-Benton IA-Iowa IA-
206 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON...SOUTHEASTERN BENTON AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA
COUNTIES...

At 205 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located over Conroy, or near
Marengo, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado is ongoing.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  South Amana and West Amana around 210 PM CST.
  Amana, Middle Amana, High Amana and Homestead around 215 PM CST.
  East Amana around 220 PM CST.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
Norway and Walford.

[BMT]

wasn't expecting to hear tornado sirens today...

[james1976]

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Confirmed tornado on the ground near Cedar Rapids.

 

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
206 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023

IAC011-095-103-162030-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230116T2030Z/
Johnson IA-Benton IA-Iowa IA-
206 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON...SOUTHEASTERN BENTON AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA
COUNTIES...

At 205 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located over Conroy, or near
Marengo, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado is ongoing.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  South Amana and West Amana around 210 PM CST.
  Amana, Middle Amana, High Amana and Homestead around 215 PM CST.
  East Amana around 220 PM CST.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
Norway and Walford.

Were potential tornadoes in the forecast?

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

I beg to differ…the SW Flow will deliver late next weekend into the following week.  Several threats on the calendar for the S MW/ Lower Lakes.  Hang in there as the pattern turns more favorable.  I see a Big Dog during the 24th-26th over our area or nearby.  Then Again, very late month into early days of FEB.

And the Euro has that Big Dog on the 24th-26th.  We are about to get jolted back into Winter.

CMC

 

[Clinton]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm sure @judahcohen is geeking out with what is about to happen to the Polar Vortex...Major Disruption is forthcoming...

Bastardi did a nice write up today on this comparing it to 58.

Joe Bastardi
Jan 16 2023

Now thats a Stratwarm

wow. Day 16 GEFS

10mb

 

Day 8

 

now look at the 1958 stratwarm

jan 25

jan 30

 

feb 58

 

this was an el nino year I suspect the La Nina base signal argues for more in the west. But that strat warm means to me we got alot of winter coming and I am talking beyond what we are seeing week 2 and 3. I am worried about another MJO rotation into the warmer phases for a time and have outlined that. But I do believe there is alot of potential centered from the Rockies to the Appalachians but influencing west and east of that, right into April this year

[Hawkeye]

My rain total today is 0.57", on the high end of the model range.

[luminen]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Bastardi did a nice write up today on this comparing it to 58.

Joe Bastardi
Jan 16 2023

Now thats a Stratwarm

wow. Day 16 GEFS

10mb

 

Day 8

 

now look at the 1958 stratwarm

jan 25

jan 30

 

feb 58

 

this was an el nino year I suspect the La Nina base signal argues for more in the west. But that strat warm means to me we got alot of winter coming and I am talking beyond what we are seeing week 2 and 3. I am worried about another MJO rotation into the warmer phases for a time and have outlined that. But I do believe there is alot of potential centered from the Rockies to the Appalachians but influencing west and east of that, right into April this year

Hopefully it will finally get cold and snowy here. We've had a decent amount of snow but it keeps getting washed away by rain.

[james1976]

Didn't know it was gonna snow this much up here. Rained most of day and turned into snow around suppertime. Very wet snow at 32°. Has to be a solid 1 1/2" so far.

[Grizzcoat]

This is a weather forum. 06Z GFS at Hr 270-- yeah I know. But if so.... = OUCH!

 

[Clinton]

A lot to sort out with whether there will be 1 or 2 systems between the 22nd-26th but the GEFS showing some snow.

[westMJim]

Good morning! The official H/L for yesterday was 41/33 that 41 was just before midnight last night and the temperature has gone up overnight and the current reading at GRR is 46 here in MBY the current reading is 45. There was 0.29” of rain fall yesterday with no snow fall. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 56 was set in 1952 and the record low of -10 was set in 1976. The most snow fall of 4.7” fell in 2009. After today’s rain ends there ls a very brief period of possible dry conditions for tomorrow before another rain/snow mix moves in. At this time it looks like most of the next system with be yet another shot of cold rain. While it should become colder it will still be warmer then average for this time of year.

[Tom]

50 minutes ago, Clinton said:

A lot to sort out with whether there will be 1 or 2 systems between the 22nd-26th but the GEFS showing some snow.

The trend is getting clearer that the global models are seeing much more high lat blocking as we get closer in time.  Is it our regions time to SHINE???  I believe so bud....nice to see the EPS continue to "Fill In" the snow holes from the MW/OHV.  #SWFlow #SnowBltiz

 

0z EPS members...choose one, anyone...#sharethewealth

 

[Tom]

The pattern setting up to close out JAN is something I've been yearning for a very LONG time.  I remember way back in SEP/OCT when I was out in AZ just thinking about Winter and how it would set up.  I didn't expect such a long JAN Thaw, but this certainly has been a hellova JAN thaw.  In fact, Chicago has had 20 days in a row with AN temps and will add another 8-9 days to that tally.  In the end, this will end up becoming one of those Old School JAN Thaw's that will encompass a major winter storm across the Heartland of the Nation that sets the stage for the Nanook From the North to unleash its Fury.   

My call for snows to fall in an AN temp pattern are coming to fruition.  The next big ticket item to discuss is the Major Arctic Attack that is on the calendar post 25th/26th across the majority of our SUB.  Is there a JAN '19 redux lurking?  Might not be quite as severe, but certainly similar as rounds of bitter cold or on the table.

This time, however, we will likely see more of the U.S. covered with Snow as the bitter cold invades the lower 48.  It appears that all the LR forecasting tools/methods are lining up for a Severe Arctic outbreak.  We are likely to see several winter storms over the next couple weeks to lay down the blanket of white gold.  Get ready down south @Andie  @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4 things are about to get real interesting!

The Flip coming is the real deal...glad that most of you out west will have snow OTG along with the cold that is coming.  I'll be patiently waiting for our turn to come.

 

The next system to track is showing up on the GEFS and GFS Op.  Is it going to score a coupe?

 

 

 

Then, the Big Dog potential during the 24th-26th...Buckle UP...we got ourselves some more storms to track!

 

[Hawkeye]

I really hope we can get at least a few inches of snow on the ground before the arctic is unleashed.

[chescowxman]

A chance of some light rain today with highs in the low 40's our normal high is 36.8. We should see temps stay above freezing till Friday night. Tomorrow looks like the warmest day of the week with our high maybe touching 50 degrees. Thursday looks like a wet day with maybe 0.75" of rain possible. Dry and a bit cooler but still above normal by the weekend.

The record high for today is 65 degrees from our only snowless winter of 1973. Record low is 13 below zero today in 1982. The daily precipitation record is 1.83" from 1994. Record snow is the 6.0" that fell today in 1978.

[CentralNebWeather]

The 12Z HRW models with incredible amounts.  

[Grizzcoat]

Sat system still showing on latest GFS-

[MIKEKC]

41 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Sat system still showing on latest GFS-

Interesting timing as the Chiefs play in KC at 3:30PM..the GFS has shown this for 3 runs now. The ICON just picked up on it with it's latest 12z run. Both models have the bigger storm next week right where Tom has been predicting, 24th-26th. 

[bud2380]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Sat system still showing on latest GFS-

By this time tomorrow, I expect that snow band to be parked right over MSP on the GFS.

[bud2380]

Euro keeps the weekend system much further south.  Doesn't look promising around here.

 

[Hawkeye]

7 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro keeps the weekend system much further south.  Doesn't look promising around here.

 

The GFS is on its own with the next system.  We will likely get nothing.

[winterfreak]

EURO has nothing really beyond tomorrow’s system. Can’t take the GFS seriously beyond 48 hrs.