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January 2023 Observations and Discussions


Clinton
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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's almost January and the start of a new year of tracking storms.  @Tom wrote a great break down of the pattern post 5tlh and 6th this morning and I thought I would add a few of my thoughts and open up a thread for discussion.  While some patience may be required for the Eastern and Southern members as far as Winter weather the first week or two of the month, that patience will likely be rewarded as as we get toward the middle of the month.

  Lets start with the MJO, we will be closing out Dec in phases 5 and 6 which are warm.

0d40d5_592f032112a44b0f9ccde54c1ce00649~mv2.png

As we will start January in phase 7, you can see that both the Euro Weeklies and the GEFS extended both take the MJO into phase 8 at the end of week 2 with some members showing an amplified phase 8 and 1.

GMON.png

EMON.png

0d40d5_15965fa654834e0a94caab3d416b71a1~mv2.png

Along with the MJO moving into the cold phases mid month, the EPO looks to go negative around the 5th and remain there through the extended.  The AO and NAO while not deeply negative they do look ok and I expect them to dive deep negative as we move toward the latter half of the month.

1672012800-arTZlNn1yBEgrb2.png

1672012800-rVQgK88TDJYgrb2.png

1672012800-MWBQv23p5o8grb2.png

Along with the cutters to start the month we should have some other big storms to track.  The part of the pattern that produced the very strange Texas Panhandle GO/Mex low produced big rains for the eastern sub and lower lakes will be due in around the 12th-15th.  Can we please get some cold air in place for this one!

The month will end with the return of one of the signature storms of this years LRC that produced heavy rain totals in the middle of the country in cycle 1 and a Blizzard in the northern part of the country in cycle 2.  There should be plenty of action in between those 2 storms.

Finally @mlgamer suggestion that we may have another backloaded winter has support from the teleconnections, LRC, and the Strat Warm event that has been discussed by @sumweatherdudeand Tom.  Could we see another Artic outbreak later in the month that last well into February?  I wish everyone good luck and happy storm tracking! 

 

 

What happened to the part of the pattern when it was cold for 10 days last month? Shouldn’t that be due in the next week or so?

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5 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

What happened to the part of the pattern when it was cold for 10 days last month? Shouldn’t that be due in the next week or so?

Yes and we'll see how cool we get but the teleconnections along with SW and zonal flow don't look favorable for us to go into the deep freeze.

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If I'am reading Clinton's charts posted on the EPO/AO/NAO correctly it seems around the 8th of Jan something should be brewing for many reading.  Will change but the 06Z/00Z GFS has this-image.thumb.png.1b5aabb8f8a84b23d5aac3f4562c6d7c.png-

image.thumb.png.793ad63a906c11e0a3ab8b60e4f86141.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Thanks, Clinton, nice post. 

Latest GFS has more spring weather than winter weather, lots of 50's in there and rain chances, nobody likes rain in the gut of winter. Hopefully we will see some changes in the data soon. '

The Chiefs game this weekend will feel 70 degrees warmer from the last Saturday game where windchill values were in the negative teens to start the game. 

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38 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Thanks, Clinton, nice post. 

Latest GFS has more spring weather than winter weather, lots of 50's in there and rain chances, nobody likes rain in the gut of winter. Hopefully we will see some changes in the data soon. '

The Chiefs game this weekend will feel 70 degrees warmer from the last Saturday game where windchill values were in the negative teens to start the game. 

I want snow for the playoffs!

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13 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's almost January and the start of a new year of tracking storms.  @Tom wrote a great break down of the pattern post 5tlh and 6th this morning and I thought I would add a few of my thoughts and open up a thread for discussion.  While some patience may be required for the Eastern and Southern members as far as Winter weather the first week or two of the month, that patience will likely be rewarded as as we get toward the middle of the month.

  Lets start with the MJO, we will be closing out Dec in phases 5 and 6 which are warm.

As we will start January in phase 7, you can see that both the Euro Weeklies and the GEFS extended both take the MJO into phase 8 at the end of week 2 with some members showing an amplified phase 8 and 1.

Along with the MJO moving into the cold phases mid month, the EPO looks to go negative around the 5th and remain there through the extended.  The AO and NAO while not deeply negative they do look ok and I expect them to dive deep negative as we move toward the latter half of the month.

Along with the cutters to start the month we should have some other big storms to track.  The part of the pattern that produced the very strange Texas Panhandle GO/Mex low produced big rains for the eastern sub and lower lakes will be due in around the 12th-15th.  Can we please get some cold air in place for this one!

The month will end with the return of one of the signature storms of this years LRC that produced heavy rain totals in the middle of the country in cycle 1 and a Blizzard in the northern part of the country in cycle 2.  There should be plenty of action in between those 2 storms.

Finally @mlgamer suggestion that we may have another backloaded winter has support from the teleconnections, LRC, and the Strat Warm event that has been discussed by @sumweatherdudeand Tom.  Could we see another Artic outbreak later in the month that last well into February?  I wish everyone good luck and happy storm tracking! 

 

 

Great write up!  Thanks @Clinton.  Just curious.  Is your thinking on the AO going deep negative later in the month linked to the SSW event?  Or is there something separate that may cause that? 

 

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1 hour ago, sumweatherdude said:

Great write up!  Thanks @Clinton.  Just curious.  Is your thinking on the AO going deep negative later in the month linked to the SSW event?  Or is there something separate that may cause that? 

 

The LRC would suggest a deep negative AO and the SSW would certainly aid that if it happens then.  For our area I am really looking forward to the later half of this month and February. 

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The LRC would suggest a deep negative AO and the SSW would certainly aid that if it happens then.  For our area I am really looking forward to the later half of this month and February. 

Thanks.  I suppose we kind of have to pin our hopes on the time period beyond two weeks.  Looking pretty torchy until then.  And not just for us.  BTW, Canadian has us flirting with 70 degrees on 1/2.  My kids will be happy with the warm weather, as we got a trampoline for Christmas.  I guess I'll use that as my positive spin until things start looking more interesting.  

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8 hours ago, Madtown said:

Backloaded Dec turns into back loaded Jan, turns into a blah winter

I've gotten only 65% of the meager snow I had last year at this time. But I like how I got here better. Traded last year's Turkey Day weekend snow for a storm and White Christmas. Thanks to 40s and sun today, now I look out on mostly green grass. You want to see "blah" winter, come on down, LOL

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I've gotten only 65% of the meager snow I had last year at this time. But I like how I got here better. Traded last year's Turkey Day weekend snow for a storm and White Christmas. Thanks to 40s and sun today, now I look out on mostly green grass. You want to see "blah" winter, come on down, LOL

I’ve had 5 feet.  And it will all be gone by new years.  I’m ok with it.   Looks to get “wintery” in a week.   Doesn’t look to have staying power.  By February I’m all good with a big snow storm or several cold shots with snow.  But if it warms up I’m ok with it as well.  

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29 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

7 days ago here in KC, the windchills bottomed out at -32 and actual temps around -8 to -6 in the city with 1-2 inches of snow blown around by 40mph.....Today,  65 degrees today and muggy. WOW! If the front slows down, might hit 70

 

I blame Texas.  They manufacture heat there, and then send it north to us. 

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The Control run of the Euro Weeklies is certainly seeing the cold in the long range.

Jan 11th -18th

1674000000-HiLXluL5C5g.png

18th -25th

 

1674604800-yNi5yhHZCRk.png

25th - Feb 1st

1675209600-ZehWpQIuPbc.png

32 day Temp anomaly beginning Jan 1st.

1675296000-nAIOujA4EhQ.png

The drivers behind this are an AO and NAO that is negative and goes off the charts negative around the 18th.  A EPO that goes negative on Jan 9th and at times goes deeply negative through out the month and a MJO that gets into phases 8,1, and 2.  @Tom Could the SSW also be a player in this?

 

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The Control run of the Euro Weeklies is certainly seeing the cold in the long range.

Jan 11th -18th

1674000000-HiLXluL5C5g.png

18th -25th

 

1674604800-yNi5yhHZCRk.png

25th - Feb 1st

1675209600-ZehWpQIuPbc.png

32 day Temp anomaly beginning Jan 1st.

1675296000-nAIOujA4EhQ.png

The drivers behind this are an AO and NAO that is negative and goes off the charts negative around the 18th.  A EPO that goes negative on Jan 9th and at times goes deeply negative through out the month and a MJO that gets into phases 8,1, and 2.  Could the SSW also be a player in this?

 

I've read that when the SSW event takes place, depending on if its a Stretched Out PV or a displaced PV, the AO turns deep negative 3 weeks after the event.  I think it'll start to have the effects towards the tail middle of JAN, but moreso end of JAN.  I also believe the ensembles aren't showing the results of the MJO heading into the cold phases, but maybe as we get into next week they will trend colder.  It does look like the important players on the field are coming back together after the 7th or so.

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14 hours ago, Clinton said:

The Control run of the Euro Weeklies is certainly seeing the cold in the long range.

The drivers behind this are an AO and NAO that is negative and goes off the charts negative around the 18th.  A EPO that goes negative on Jan 9th and at times goes deeply negative through out the month and a MJO that gets into phases 8,1, and 2.  @Tom Could the SSW also be a player in this?

 

Hopefully this will translate into some snow.  The models aren't picking up on anything down this way for now.  But we all know they are of limited use this far out.  Thanks for the write up! 

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7 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Hopefully this will translate into some snow.  The models aren't picking up on anything down this way for now.  But we all know they are of limited use this far out.  Thanks for the write up! 

Cycle 3 will be starting around the 9th which is when we start to see a big flip in the teleconnections.  My feeling is that from a storm track perspective it will resemble more of what cycle 1 produced.  So the areas that were targeted in the later half of Oct into November should see that type of setup again and combine that with the cold that is showing up in the long range should deliver some exciting Winter weather.

Don't sleep on the storm in the 12th - 15th.  I'm real curious to see how that storm plays out.

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Yawner worst case scenario start to January.  It was nice having snow on the ground for about a total of a week this year.    
see ya in two weeks if anything pops up.   Looks unlikely at this point.  Zzzzzzzzzzzz

we are back to hoping and praying and looking at anything that will support cold and snow while ignoring the obvious signs of a mild January.  

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Well we are down to three storms left before we reset the LRC. We should have another major trough move through in a week or so. Nov. 15th to Nov. 17th produced the first snowfall for Kansas, Missouri and points off to the south and east of me. Also produced major lake effect snows. We should also see another outbreak of storms towards the end of Jan. for Dixie Ally. If I was a betting man; Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois should see some good snows with the next two storms. Us in Nebraska will have our best chance at the end of the month......hopefully we get lucky with storm #1. 

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This forecast is crazy for snowboarding in Wisconsin, good chance a lot of hills shut down after the rain on Monday night and they won't have enough cold to really fix things for a while, the lows weds and thrus are good enough for some snowmaking, but it's not enough time to make a lot.

Snowboarding and skiing is going to get real ugly down here, even if they manage to stay open. I'd be worried but everything and everyone blew the "monster blizzard!!!!" we were supposed to get before Christmas so my confidence in models is at an all time low right now. Pretty sad to see, I feel like we haven't had a proper Winter like 5+ years. And even if the first two weeks of Jan are lost, that's still a quarter of Winter for most of us up here. It's time for a winter house up north, lol.

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2 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

This forecast is crazy for snowboarding in Wisconsin, good chance a lot of hills shut down after the rain on Monday night and they won't have enough cold to really fix things for a while, the lows weds and thrus are good enough for some snowmaking, but it's not enough time to make a lot.

Snowboarding and skiing is going to get real ugly down here, even if they manage to stay open. I'd be worried but everything and everyone blew the "monster blizzard!!!!" we were supposed to get before Christmas so my confidence in models is at an all time low right now. Pretty sad to see, I feel like we haven't had a proper Winter like 5+ years. And even if the first two weeks of Jan are lost, that's still a quarter of Winter for most of us up here. It's time for a winter house up north, lol.

Great winters aren’t coming back.  The climate has changed.  It’s just not going to happen.  

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8 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Well we are down to three storms left before we reset the LRC. We should have another major trough move through in a week or so. Nov. 15th to Nov. 17th produced the first snowfall for Kansas, Missouri and points off to the south and east of me. Also produced major lake effect snows. We should also see another outbreak of storms towards the end of Jan. for Dixie Ally. If I was a betting man; Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois should see some good snows with the next two storms. Us in Nebraska will have our best chance at the end of the month......hopefully we get lucky with storm #1. 

Please don’t bet.  There is no snow coming anytime soon.  

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Happy New Year everyone!  I sincerely believe this year will be tremendous in so many different ways.  May 2023 bring you and your family Health and Prosperity.  Sending positive vibes to all of you!  Cheers to making this one of the most memorable and inspiring years of our lives.

image.jpeg

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As we open up this New Year, ableit a gloomy and foggy one, I'm seeing some BIG changes in the modeling and fit some of the LR ideas that many have been sharing on here.  Once we get past this weeks Big Dog and the following weekend's possible "appetizer", the blocking over Canada will create a path for systems to plow into the west and make their way through our Sub.  I don't expect to many "hard cutters" in this 500mb set up.  So let's dive into the LR as there are some interesting systems showing up.

The weaker system showing up during the 6th-8th timeframe should bring a mixed bag to parts of the MW/GL's later this week into next weekend.  Then the attn turns to a system during the 10th-12th period coming up from the S Plains and cutting up towards Lakes region.  This should be a lead wave in front of a major Trough that will track into the 4 corners right around the 12th/13th and slowly make its way into TX/OK. @AndieI've had this storm on my calendar a while back and the teleconnections setting up during this period should provide ample reasons for this to be a Major Winter Storm that snaps the pattern back to Winter for our Sub.  

Last night's 0z EPS is showing the evolution of the pattern post 10th quite well and I firmly believe by the 15th of this month, many on here will reap the rewards of White Gold.  The 2nd half of JAN is not going to be anywhere close to the blow torch the CFSv2 and the LR models were showing.  At this time of year, the amount of ridging showing up over Canada does not imply a warm pattern in the mid lats, esp the time of year (mid JAN) when winter norm temps are averaging their coldest.  You can get wintry systems to deliver snowfall even in a "warmer" pattern.  

 

image.gif

 

I'm really starting to see a signal for a hyper active STJ, esp targeting @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance @Andie for the 2nd half of JAN.  The models appear to be shifting towards a neutral EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern along with a +PNA.  Suppression is on the table post 15th.  The week of the 22nd, esp if the MJO heads into Phase 1/2, Look Out for Texas Trouble.  We could very well see a repeating pattern of what was seen during the Christmas holiday week. 

Oh, let's not forget, what happens up Top, will undoubtedly impact our weather Below....Let's Rock n Roll!

image.gif

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57 minutes ago, Tom said:

As we open up this New Year, ableit a gloomy and foggy one, I'm seeing some BIG changes in the modeling and fit some of the LR ideas that many have been sharing on here.  Once we get past this weeks Big Dog and the following weekend's possible "appetizer", the blocking over Canada will create a path for systems to plow into the west and make their way through our Sub.  I don't expect to many "hard cutters" in this 500mb set up.  So let's dive into the LR as there are some interesting systems showing up.

The weaker system showing up during the 6th-8th timeframe should bring a mixed bag to parts of the MW/GL's later this week into next weekend.  Then the attn turns to a system during the 10th-12th period coming up from the S Plains and cutting up towards Lakes region.  This should be a lead wave in front of a major Trough that will track into the 4 corners right around the 12th/13th and slowly make its way into TX/OK. @AndieI've had this storm on my calendar a while back and the teleconnections setting up during this period should provide ample reasons for this to be a Major Winter Storm that snaps the pattern back to Winter for our Sub.  

Last night's 0z EPS is showing the evolution of the pattern post 10th quite well and I firmly believe by the 15th of this month, many on here will reap the rewards of White Gold.  The 2nd half of JAN is not going to be anywhere close to the blow torch the CFSv2 and the LR models were showing.  At this time of year, the amount of ridging showing up over Canada does not imply a warm pattern in the mid lats, esp the time of year (mid JAN) when winter norm temps are averaging their coldest.  You can get wintry systems to deliver snowfall even in a "warmer" pattern.  

 

image.gif

 

I'm really starting to see a signal for a hyper active STJ, esp targeting @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance @Andie for the 2nd half of JAN.  The models appear to be shifting towards a neutral EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern along with a +PNA.  Suppression is on the table post 15th.  The week of the 22nd, esp if the MJO heads into Phase 1/2, Look Out for Texas Trouble.  We could very well see a repeating pattern of what was seen during the Christmas holiday week. 

Oh, let's not forget, what happens up Top, will undoubtedly impact our weather Below....Let's Rock n Roll!

 

Very excited and curious to see how the storm for the 12th - 15th plays out.  It was one of the wettest and most unique systems in this years pattern.  It certainly promises to be a wet one and if it can get ahold of some cold air then look out!

I wonder if the CFSv2 wishes it could take that blow torch forecast back.  It doesn't even agree with it's own teleconnections.  

NCFS.png

Looks like the Australian, GFS Ext and Euro Weeklies.  The Australian 

mjo_rmm_daily_20221229.png

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On 12/30/2022 at 7:29 PM, Stacsh said:

Yawner worst case scenario start to January.  It was nice having snow on the ground for about a total of a week this year.    
see ya in two weeks if anything pops up.   Looks unlikely at this point.  Zzzzzzzzzzzz

we are back to hoping and praying and looking at anything that will support cold and snow while ignoring the obvious signs of a mild January.  

At least you've had "snow". There's a reason I am not a fan of the huge PV visits or arctic shots. Since December of 2014 at least, they are quickly followed by massive warm-ups that torches whatever good snows may have come from the cold period. Not to mention just bone-numbing conditions not even fit for winter recreation fun.

Happy New Year! 

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Happy New Year everyone!  I sincerely believe this year will be tremendous in so many different ways.  May 2023 bring you and your family Health and Prosperity.  Sending positive vibes to all of you!  Cheers to making this one of the most memorable and inspiring years of our lives.

image.jpeg

Thanks and Happy New Year Tom! 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The GFS Ext which previously was showing a torch through the entire month of Jan is starting to sing a different song.  I believe we will continue to see these anomalies continue to trend colder.

 1674604800-dptIAUr79U4.png

1675209600-1HIx7wLScYg.png

Thanks Clinton! Need to salvage at least some of January for the rest of us not in FSD, MSP, The UP. 

Happy New Year!

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thanks Clinton! Need to salvage at least some of January for the rest of us not in FSD, MSP, The UP. 

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year to you as well!  Hope that wacky low that formed on the Texas/ Mexico boarder around Thanksgiving will deliver us some snow and jump start this pattern.  Very strange system last time through. 

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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Happy New Year to you as well!  Hope that wacky low that formed on the Texas/ Mexico boarder around Thanksgiving will deliver us some snow and jump start this pattern.  Very strange system last time through. 

The Cut-off with zero cold air connection? Yeah, if that repeats we'd have to hope that in mid-winter form, it could generate it's own cold via dynamics. I've seen that a couple of times over the decades. Can't remember the last time tho.

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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https://www.greetingsgif.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Happy-New-Year-Gif-2023-%C2%A9-greetingsgif-0714092022.gif

Want to wish everyone on here Health and Happiness!!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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There is a little wintry mix falling this morning w/ temps in the 30s. This very wet snow falling currently kinda reminds me when snow falls in April or even in May. Also, near record high temps expected on Tuesday w/ readings approaching 60F+, but along w/ that comes hvy rain and a good dose of it too.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

At least you've had "snow". There's a reason I am not a fan of the huge PV visits or arctic shots. Since December of 2014 at least, they are quickly followed by massive warm-ups that torches whatever good snows may have come from the cold period. Not to mention just bone-numbing conditions not even fit for winter recreation fun.

Happy New Year! 

Happy new year!  Hope we get some more snow to track soon 

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Happy New Year!

Texas begins 2023 warm with a high in the mid 70’s today. Increasing chance of rain by this evening and tomorrow. 
High tomorrow 78 with rain.

(Is it Spring yet?😄)

 

 

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

As we open up this New Year, ableit a gloomy and foggy one, I'm seeing some BIG changes in the modeling and fit some of the LR ideas that many have been sharing on here.  Once we get past this weeks Big Dog and the following weekend's possible "appetizer", the blocking over Canada will create a path for systems to plow into the west and make their way through our Sub.  I don't expect to many "hard cutters" in this 500mb set up.  So let's dive into the LR as there are some interesting systems showing up.

The weaker system showing up during the 6th-8th timeframe should bring a mixed bag to parts of the MW/GL's later this week into next weekend.  Then the attn turns to a system during the 10th-12th period coming up from the S Plains and cutting up towards Lakes region.  This should be a lead wave in front of a major Trough that will track into the 4 corners right around the 12th/13th and slowly make its way into TX/OK. @AndieI've had this storm on my calendar a while back and the teleconnections setting up during this period should provide ample reasons for this to be a Major Winter Storm that snaps the pattern back to Winter for our Sub.  

Last night's 0z EPS is showing the evolution of the pattern post 10th quite well and I firmly believe by the 15th of this month, many on here will reap the rewards of White Gold.  The 2nd half of JAN is not going to be anywhere close to the blow torch the CFSv2 and the LR models were showing.  At this time of year, the amount of ridging showing up over Canada does not imply a warm pattern in the mid lats, esp the time of year (mid JAN) when winter norm temps are averaging their coldest.  You can get wintry systems to deliver snowfall even in a "warmer" pattern.  

 

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I'm really starting to see a signal for a hyper active STJ, esp targeting @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance @Andie for the 2nd half of JAN.  The models appear to be shifting towards a neutral EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern along with a +PNA.  Suppression is on the table post 15th.  The week of the 22nd, esp if the MJO heads into Phase 1/2, Look Out for Texas Trouble.  We could very well see a repeating pattern of what was seen during the Christmas holiday week. 

Oh, let's not forget, what happens up Top, will undoubtedly impact our weather Below....Let's Rock n Roll!

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Enjoying the warm break, but all is in line with my thoughts and will be braced and excited for winter's return. Winter's "peak" here is usually late January-very early February. 

In my studies this morning, my only real thoughts were, "Do we go 1983-1984's route with the short January punch? Or do we go with the long-haul, lockdown cold?"

There's a "Gulf-punch" in our pattern which, if well-timed, could smash everyone from me to the northeast. If everything lines up right, bang. 

Real winter is only a few days old. Pretty exciting. 

Happy New Year everyone!!

You are an amazing community of unique and wonderful friends, enthusiasts and just a genuinely great group of people!!

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54 minutes ago, Andie said:

Happy New Year!

Texas begins 2023 warm with a high in the mid 70’s today. Increasing chance of rain by this evening and tomorrow. 
High tomorrow 78 with rain.

(Is it Spring yet?😄)

 

 

 

The rest of Autumn.

Supply chain issues held up the last part...lol.

It's quite nice up here.

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Great day to get outside, I got the Christmas light off the roof and did a little yard clean up.  KC came up just short of a record today.

Kansas City International reached 62° today, which ties for the 2nd warmest New Year's Day on record and is the warmest since 2006. The record high for today is 64° set all the way back in 1897. 

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Could hit 70F again today ahead of the severe set up. Looking like a good hail threat (low end severe) in Tulsa today, but recent CAM trends have been slowing the system down. Might end up being more of a tornado threat than originally thought. Definitely some real action to my southeast late this afternoon. 

Liking the posts and optimism for the long range. Lets hope we get some more snow sooner than later! 

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Good Morning! The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 42/32 there was 0.15” of rain fall, no snow fall, no sunshine and there is no reported snow on the ground. The overnight low was a mild 36 and at the current time there is fog and a temperature of 38. For today the average H/L is 32/21 the record high of 59 was set in 2004 and the record low of -2 was set in 2001 the most snow fall of 6.4” fell in 1999.

Here is some more information on 2022.  Last year there were 7 days with highs of 90 or better. There were 56 days when the high was 32 or less. A total of 141 days when the low was 32 or less and 2 days with the low of 0 or less. There was 42% of possible sunshine for the year. With 60 days of clear skies and a total of 150 cloudy days and 154 days of partly cloudy skies. There were a total of 32 days with a least one lightning or thunder reported (note a thunderstorm report only needs one lighting strike reported) There were a total of 30 days with heavy rain and 12 days with a report of heavy snow. (note a report of heavy snow or rain only has to show up in one hourly report)

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Hmmm, did anyone see the sudden flip to a colder pattern later this week/weekend?  I think the Euro is seeing the MJO and now an increased amount of high lat blocking.  Thank the dip in the -NAO/-AO...I'll tell ya, this pattern setting up is going to produce some healthy winter storms post 12th.  I just see the main players all signaling for "real winter" to return when the coldest norms of the year are experienced.  Coast-2-Coast Storm Parade!

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