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January 2023 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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Good Morning! The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 42/32 there was 0.15” of rain fall, no snow fall, no sunshine and there is no reported snow on the ground. The overnight low was a mild 36 and at the current time there is fog and a temperature of 38. For today the average H/L is 32/21 the record high of 59 was set in 2004 and the record low of -2 was set in 2001 the most snow fall of 6.4” fell in 1999.

Here is some more information on 2022.  Last year there were 7 days with highs of 90 or better. There were 56 days when the high was 32 or less. A total of 141 days when the low was 32 or less and 2 days with the low of 0 or less. There was 42% of possible sunshine for the year. With 60 days of clear skies and a total of 150 cloudy days and 154 days of partly cloudy skies. There were a total of 32 days with a least one lightning or thunder reported (note a thunderstorm report only needs one lighting strike reported) There were a total of 30 days with heavy rain and 12 days with a report of heavy snow. (note a report of heavy snow or rain only has to show up in one hourly report)

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Hmmm, did anyone see the sudden flip to a colder pattern later this week/weekend?  I think the Euro is seeing the MJO and now an increased amount of high lat blocking.  Thank the dip in the -NAO/-AO...I'll tell ya, this pattern setting up is going to produce some healthy winter storms post 12th.  I just see the main players all signaling for "real winter" to return when the coldest norms of the year are experienced.  Coast-2-Coast Storm Parade!

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ECMF_BC.png

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Our mild weather will continue through Thursday before a turn to more typical January temperatures by Friday. With the mild temps will come rain chances starting later tonight till Thursday morning and then again Thursday night into Friday.
The record high for today is 62 set in 2000. The record low is 7 below zero from 1899. The daily rain record is 2.09" from 1948. Record daily snow is the 9" that fell today in 1925.
image.png.b6a7d372fa8a97fc263be1470a16951b.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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So this is the 23rd time in 129 years of recorded Chester County history that we have received less than 1" of snow through December. In only 3 of those 23 instances have we ended up with above normal snowfall for the remainder of the snow season. So the odds of above normal snowfall looks low. However, as we know our 3 snowiest months on average still lie ahead of us. So don't put away those snow blowers just yet...

image.png.140165a846b19c5f4e54aba82f7faff3.png

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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2 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

I don't like that it seems like we in KC seem to be becoming more dependent on polar vortex intrusions for cold air and snow rather than just having enough moderately cold winter air around to get some decent snows in winter.  I read an article discussing the fact that the 1990s had very few, if any, polar vortex intrusions like we see today.  I'm not sure how a polar vortex intrusion is defined.  But assuming that statement is true, it's interesting that KC had only one single-digit snowfall year during the 1990s, and the decade was exactly average for snowfall overall -- without big polar vortex intrusions.  During the 2010s we had four single-digit snowfall years! KC had never had more than 1 per decade prior to that (if you define decades beginning at round numbers, i.e., 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, etc.) 

If KC can't get snow without the big bad polar vortex intrusions, winters around here are going to be brown, gray and boring.

It’s like that in southern Michigan too.  Only clipper patterns deliver a decent winter.  

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6 hours ago, chescowxman said:

So this is the 23rd time in 129 years of recorded Chester County history that we have received less than 1" of snow through December. In only 3 of those 23 instances have we ended up with above normal snowfall for the remainder of the snow season. So the odds of above normal snowfall looks low. However, as we know our 3 snowiest months on average still lie ahead of us. So don't put away those snow blowers just yet...

image.png.140165a846b19c5f4e54aba82f7faff3.png

No snow at all in 1972?  Wow.

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7 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

I've been following some back and forth on this issue on Twitter.  I hope this is correct.  But there's definitely some people who disagree.  Not trying to be a downer here, but for the sake of keeping us honest, here's the other side's argument: 

 

 

 

Very cool that Bastardi posted this today as it should provide some insight to your post.  

Last Bite of the Warm Dog this winter?

Ever wonder why the Polar Vortex came and went in 2014. It came thru during the null phase of the MJO

201401_phase_90days.gif

and then look where the MJO went. We played the Super Bowl in NYC that year during a window of warmth. There was widespread warmth between the 10th and 20th but then the back and forth turned to the cold Dog and that was that. The Feb rotation did not get as strong into that dreaded phase 6 so the large scale responses overcame

You have to have seen this a kjillion times. So here is kajillion and one The MJO responses to various vv patterns. It was the eastern hemisphere strong warm stimulus vs the western hemisphere's cold. Much of the time the two face offf and one is in the null phase. The last 80 days of the MJO reveal the preseason diagnosis was a good one

Screen_Shot_2022_12_31_at_3_20_28_PM.png

 

rmm_phase_Last90days(2).gif

 

remember in the fall. phase 7 is a cold phase. so we see rotations to set up the cold but then a collapse and warm respsonse

 

But this was based on the Indian ocean looking like this

FlcNkqJXEAEopH9.png

 

that loves sinking in the west convection in the east. But it is almost like the dryness of the west and rain in the east may have aided the flip. It built the road it road to its death

Screen_Shot_2023_01_02_at_9_23_49_AM.png

 

 

and so

FlcNl57XoAUf7Fn.png

 

this has to at least weaken the dog in the eastern hemisphere so not rotations may be much less into that phase

And the Euro Is certainly responding

ECMF_BC(1).png

ots interesting how it got chopped down in 7/7 this time

 

But there is more. Look at hte euro at. 360

ecmwf_ensemble_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_39136

I spy with my little eye Cahirs connection

anf the CFSv2 ( if its going to get cold it sees it

cfs_daily_all_avg_conus_t2m_f_anom_5day_

 

has the king kong cold later in the month into Feb. It also sees alot of snow on the ground in the northeast. add 5 degrees, still impressive.

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I spy with my little eye Cahirs connection

First heard him teaching that about 20 yrs ago and it always paid dividends for SMI. Prolly why those seasonal snow anomaly maps showed FEB as very AN here. Or was it JAN, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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9 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

I don't like that it seems like we in KC seem to be becoming more dependent on polar vortex intrusions for cold air and snow rather than just having enough moderately cold winter air around to get some decent snows in winter.  I read an article discussing the fact that the 1990s had very few, if any, polar vortex intrusions like we see today.  I'm not sure how a polar vortex intrusion is defined.  But assuming that statement is true, it's interesting that KC had only one single-digit snowfall year during the 1990s, and the decade was exactly average for snowfall overall -- without big polar vortex intrusions.  During the 2010s we had four single-digit snowfall years! KC had never had more than 1 per decade prior to that (if you define decades beginning at round numbers, i.e., 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, etc.) 

If KC can't get snow without the big bad polar vortex intrusions, winters around here are going to be brown, gray and boring.

The 90's had Pinatubo eruption. We probably need something near the equator to blow it's lid to get a stretch of decently cold winters again at our LAT's.

7 hours ago, Stacsh said:

It’s like that in southern Michigan too.  Only clipper patterns deliver a decent winter.  

There you go again. 2013-14 was all-time historically cold and snowy winter for SCMI over to SEMI. Feb 2015 was coldest on record but I don't think KC was included in either. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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So, I just took out my garbage and I swear, it feels sooo0o0 nice being outside and here we are on January 2nd. What a beautiful, calm, mild evening. You could most definitely turn on the grill and throw on some steaks and even sit outside and eat (of course a very light jacket possibly could be useful), but WOW ....just.........Wow! 😳

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

The 90's had Pinatubo eruption. We probably need something near the equator to blow it's lid to get a stretch of decently cold winters again at our LAT's.

There you go again. 2013-14 was all-time historically cold and snowy winter for SCMI over to SEMI. Feb 2015 was coldest on record but I don't think KC was included in either. 

And that was clipper after clipper and PV intrusions.   

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Good Morning. We continue to see mild start to January. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 38/35. There was a trace of rain yesterday. No snow, and no sunshine. And there is no official snow on the ground. (there are still snow piles) The overnight temperature has held steady at 37 and at the current time there is light rain falling and it is now 38 here at my house. For today the average H/L is 32/21 the record high of 59 was reported in 2004 and the record low of -9 was in 2014. Todays record snow fall is 9.1” in 1999. Today will not be as warm as it looked just a few days ago but still around 10° warmer than average.  There will be rain showers the next two days. It will cool down on Thursday but still remain above to maybe around average with little in the way of snow fall.

 

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A very mild but somewhat wet week on tap across Chester County PA. Temps will run well above normal with temperatures not falling back below freezing until Friday night into Saturday AM. We should get back to near normal January temps by the weekend. Rain should move in this morning and end later this PM. Another round of rain arrives by tomorrow PM and should end by Friday AM.
The record high for today is 63 degrees from 1997. Our record low is 1 below zero set in 1918. Daily rain record is 2.07" from 1936. Snow record for the day is the 2.7" from 1989.
image.png.8d5446b5c02d9693ad3299a8cc3990a5.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Well, I mowed the grass this morning and  took a swim in the pool. I thought, after last night's heavy thunderstorms, it was July when I  woke up. 

WOW! I think last night was a more active convective storm then I had all summer long. 1.43 inches of rain for my area of KC. At least we got some good winter moisture which is not easy in this part of the country.

Latest GFS....no winter in sight for KC. Please change soon.  

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19 hours ago, Hoosier said:

No snow at all in 1972?  Wow.

Yep - that is the only time that ever happened in this area....

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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I was hearing a lot of the "we feel like it doesn't snow much anymore" from folks on my FB page - so I updated some of the analysis and charts on snowfalls for the Philly burbs of Chester County PA. The data says the last 3 decades including just the 1st 2 seasons of the 2020's have all averaged above average snowfall. (see graph below showing the average snowfall by decade since the 1890's.May be an image of text that says 'Chester County PA 1888 Present Average Snowfall Decade 60.0 37.9 50.0 Western Chester County: Snowfall Averages by Decade 1890's through 2020's 48.0 31.7 44.9 40.0 T 39.0 1940 30.0 20.0 31.7 24. 37.9 39.3 33.0 25.4 31.5 36.4 10.0 21.7 0.0 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020'

Or what about we don't get any large snowstorms anymore? So how about a breakdown of significant (6"+) large (10"+) Major (15"+) and historic (20"+) snowstorms by decade

May be an image of text that says '19 Snowstorms by Size 1890 to Present- Chester County PA 20 18 16 14 12 10 *き..** 19 11 10 8 6 16 8 11 5 15 2 11 9 11 1890 1900 1910 1920 0- 1930 *.*....と 5 1940 6in+ 1950 10 በ+ 1960 1970 1980 —15in+ 1990 Linear (10 n+ ........ Linear (15 +) 2000 2010 Linear (20 +)'

And finally the thought that we don't get any big snow seasons anymore? Well below are the top 20 Snow Seasons - 3 of the Top 10 and 6 of the Top 20 snowiest winters have all happened since the year 2000

May be an image of text that says '1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Chester County PA Top 20 Seasonal Snowfall Ranks Season Snowfall Season Snowfall 1898-99 95.0 11 1893-1894 59.2 2009-10 86.6 12 2017-18 58.5 1995-96 81.9 13 1957-58 58.0 2013-14 80.0 14 1966-67 57.0 1904-05 79.7 15 2014-15 55.3 1909-10 76.8 16 1913-14 54.1 1906-07 71.8 17 1916-17 53.8 2002-03 62.6 18 1921-22 53.4 1977-78 59.8 19 1910-11 52.6 1986-87 59.3 20 2020-21 52.2 SINCE 2000'

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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We like to post fantasy maps of huge amounts of snow out to 384 hr that never happen. Well Euro Control has zilch for many out to 360 hrs (just current system). Sadly- it's probably correct. image.thumb.png.6ef664676951e84acc7ecab7d3a3c111.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Seasonal snowfall to date as of this morning. Parts of Northern Nebraska and Southern South Dakota between 48-60” already. Amazing. Then you see the have nots in the southeast part of the state into Kansas, and parts of Iowa and Missouri. Our principal told me today that some schools in Northern Nebraska have already used 7-10 snow days and it’s only January 3rd. B115BDFE-A06D-4C2A-8679-520C2279095C.thumb.png.1a0bbe97b399f619ce023b14ad1d9819.png

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Good morning! This warm and rather wet start to January continues. The official H/L for Grand Rapids yesterday was 40/36 there was 0.33” of rain fall, there was no snow and no sunshine. There is no snow on the ground. Overnight the temperatures held steady with the low being just 39 and the official current reading being 40. For today the average H/L is 32/20 the record high of 60 was in 1997 and the record low of -20 was set in 1981 the record snow fall amount of 6.3” was set in 1941. At this time it still looks warmer than average for the foreseeable future. There may be some wet snow here on Thursday but that is just about it. This is very much looking like a very mild January.

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Happy Hump Day!  Suddenly, there are a couple systems to track for those in the MW/GL's region later this weekend and then into the following week.  I really like the blocking signal showing up in S Canada that will produce a storm track right through the heart of the Sub later next week.  

Some of the models are showing a ribbon of snow over the MW/Lower Lakes...a nice little appetizer?

1.png

 

0z EPS showing the beginning of what I see will be a storm parade as the media like to call "The Atmospheric River" pounding the West Coast with numerous powerful storms.  This is just what the Lakes and Reservoirs ordered from Mother Nature.  The Pre-Season outlook by many mets and media were suggesting a BN season, but NASSO fast, I had a Strong gut feeling that when the LRC was setting up, the West was surely going to be blessed with abundant moisture. I spoke to a good friend of mine in Cali and he said that some reports based on how much snow has already fallen (and will continue through the Spring), that Lake Meade and other Lakes/Reservoirs will end up with water levels rising significantly.  While that does sound amazing, lets see what nature has in store.

Soo, what about 'em storms???  The 0z EPS shows it best... @Clintonas we have opined, there should be a potent storm that tracks thru the S MW/S Plains post 12th and it has been showing up in the operational models, albeit, wildly different among the various models.  The key for this storm is how strong the Hudson Bay Block will be and how much cold it will SEED.

image.gif

 

After this storm departs, what's next?  I'll be honest, I'm rather confused to see the D 10 Strat off the Euro Op showing this...and then a spiking + EPO???  IMHO, something is wrong here...

2.png

 

image.png

Then we have the SSW event which starts right around the 11th/12th...this should leave a mark on the PV, right?...but as the saying goes..."We Shall See"...Nature is the Boss in the end.

image.gif

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It looks like rain will be moving in today from the southwest by this afternoon. Highs should peak in the low 60's today...while very warm not close to our record high of 67 set back in 1950. However, that is 22 degrees above normal. Tomorrow we "cool" to only 14 degrees above normal to the mid-50's. We should be closer to normal with highs around 40 by the weekend.
The record high is that 67 set in 1950. Our record low is the 3 below zero set in 1918. The daily rain record is the 1.55" from 1944. Daily snow record is the 4.5" that fell today back in 1905.
image.png.974391613c9bc77a093064d6189f09ab.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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4 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

We have had the longest stretch of freezing fog/freezing mist over the last 5 days I have ever experienced.  Nearly everything outside is flocked in thick frost.  Pictures don't do it justice. 

 4M2NAJpdt_jUNOMcidtLX9wEuYXSxQBgM4DrTtkm4Gjn-rI0D2HCLMURGfbKR9YtXfBfaF41CEr49lW-RwfdNgG6Mn9SBOOTuc8qm1-FdYdRwjHNB4F02oBqMxa-MHslvoCk7IuNSxdfPW5foWDEP40amJyD9vyvgnKLPblvwI6saW8cbJGPgM-n1mjRHaJ9ZUCrkSc89thXDSL-yAbmFZGQOOjzBoc9EVwFoqJZqVLuCTHMxIHIaZVHA4rLu-NcvLVS49p10LzU0Kn7kI7Fw6yqIzSEcUCtjXxm-uWDxRVYQAqR-NeM2shpIXW34sUm_5o8RQoP8gAXblw0kW-AdOHF7ACFWKSxMgWquRWa_DbM4piARPijc6dFCwtLT_eVnwQ5r3ZDRREEvL2e2ahIigdqlk1KRTlv0HCHSb7ln46stWkSy14cGagiyk8Gxl3Dr8cHddChEsoF15brSf0TUsM144q5EluuvwfquTR-PowaOHKef2Ihwc27mOttVPIc65yJNeafsUIKRm4rPQ_gDDtEI3HDLa1TP9cxseiAb3if1VqZOwVnXP9n4bpEos688damFM4BryPip9jCE5m7H8XvpgPkIK1ubfaVbnrMYcDBm8cvsCDv8MrOOpcYvq0V9MACq0ZHhwRM4x9ltA1qtDX77JVxZbUQKYPQciWqc5BWSOI6sNEQ5ZZWdMkX25IFXYo9v5v91JFkPevbcXdWJpo74zyeFK2s9Iidn4BlrgoDM3i3m9YxeYs4Tc1tGcCQJol1k83JORGz8POUXavE39_gtIQbMawCGFshqMH15B6Y50SYQd7900kSeDoFN3_xDcrDC3lRwP_YpgQoxBNX4O7N3rpRIdFebmJTCQajaScdyYR1Km5pFLGSkuFK4dvZRaXGoO93Y04eSEubckDM5hnmkYHfaWW7Okx2pBEZohGjI2qJCQ=w733-h977-no?authuser=0c1uqbsHuXXjrlXFvrPC3zgVI5Uzi_SBWDGVTi6-ShgvRsq3eLoqZoCF-5IGBqAI3Yn5W_gGVCR39746GePg0uEJPFBzcSEITPYEgJrF7Gf4JO0UChTqaKxjEuzpmwxBhQjPnEVmHXVnIsblm5JnQgYjKhBP5yOSEBYbnF4NG1SKE3Uk-iDOBW-ZNaZq03wgAMJQHwcwjK_0KkU72AOA_O0pK8tKX6Q38VXam2FLaRL2u9WO8eGq_44RsVukBwq0LUrszCkEzgUqNj7VaE6p8yjHpbMwXG7-DpM0JKHFkq_ph2UUKAky_jMN9UKkCaLOnBldmxzez_bt8e0KnS1v9M8okXxnC47eFlgGIoXKmQRKKmTmZ3RENgl1qLvXqVAEq3cQp8QDY7dBvtCVsl-WVjMAWvuR0DeZk4n33sWkMFamc1bi9YtmKiwWVCV2qgHUwb83l7i6gM4blOPmjkynIT8CbWQccN3XmlW3F5LjW_0ktB7qSE5G_uwYgc_qDv5kJX_YrC7zpkCWdIPugCLrFKE3pDQMBmge2xEYFsfaw1_opNZ_CjTzWbYsxEIL_gp7N8gIB1FMkuyPD6fcIZ-aoEE-s1wZDKtvHtI4FtSpAYXfsimS90Dc97VA7XBXZ3OJByzMNOwywRHFZYzIO-LToyGQ0LIpQKwIAddl16oDuH4LoD2hzhXCH0zRfvm5eiMvlghHctQpaAqIxqev0oWCm1UDhpIWHePYp3oazD8CZ_FzOYG8y_vG8IM4tpWlEpMDlFi-TTaY3BOIy7G0BBWb7gc9o9yxdnwqk-XKzDWvIdvLb47PWlv-vS1WMbzpwrTPU_7XMDhXAwe-y2-ArnOQ6OSWdrIQNJh0fh8BKn3kY6PAxdAAgtJZAh-YF7jdDFPci8wEwk2AjKwvIA7DWG4gTxSJsjut2n5e1-Rlr7fP7q7QlDeOqtQ=w1303-h977-no?authuser=0

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That must look so pretty when the sun comes up...very picturesque I'm sure!

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20 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

We like to post fantasy maps of huge amounts of snow out to 384 hr that never happen. Well Euro Control has zilch for many out to 360 hrs (just current system). Sadly- it's probably correct. image.thumb.png.6ef664676951e84acc7ecab7d3a3c111.png

Woah exciting! I'm looking forward to my two weeks of winter in February! I can't wait!

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19 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

This is encouraging, the GFS strengthened this run.  I'm not worried yet about it showing some mixed precip, as the GFS handles thermals very poorly.  We'll see what the Euro has to say in about 30 minutes.  

 Give it up. We don't get storms, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Temps remain above normal throughout the extended outlook for mby. Even though it gets colder starting tomorrow, it will still be slightly AN.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

Happy Hump Day!  Suddenly, there are a couple systems to track for those in the MW/GL's region later this weekend and then into the following week.  I really like the blocking signal showing up in S Canada that will produce a storm track right through the heart of the Sub later next week.  

Some of the models are showing a ribbon of snow over the MW/Lower Lakes...a nice little appetizer?

1.png

 

0z EPS showing the beginning of what I see will be a storm parade as the media like to call "The Atmospheric River" pounding the West Coast with numerous powerful storms.  This is just what the Lakes and Reservoirs ordered from Mother Nature.  The Pre-Season outlook by many mets and media were suggesting a BN season, but NASSO fast, I had a Strong gut feeling that when the LRC was setting up, the West was surely going to be blessed with abundant moisture. I spoke to a good friend of mine in Cali and he said that some reports based on how much snow has already fallen (and will continue through the Spring), that Lake Meade and other Lakes/Reservoirs will end up with water levels rising significantly.  While that does sound amazing, lets see what nature has in store.

Soo, what about 'em storms???  The 0z EPS shows it best... @Clintonas we have opined, there should be a potent storm that tracks thru the S MW/S Plains post 12th and it has been showing up in the operational models, albeit, wildly different among the various models.  The key for this storm is how strong the Hudson Bay Block will be and how much cold it will SEED.

image.gif

 

After this storm departs, what's next?  I'll be honest, I'm rather confused to see the D 10 Strat off the Euro Op showing this...and then a spiking + EPO???  IMHO, something is wrong here...

2.png

 

image.png

Then we have the SSW event which starts right around the 11th/12th...this should leave a mark on the PV, right?...but as the saying goes..."We Shall See"...Nature is the Boss in the end.

image.gif

Good to see the Euro showing the storm on the 12th well today.  Hopefully we will see that Hudson Bay Block flex its muscle and push down a little more cold air. 

1673546400-sX62SXcaKms.png

 MJO will be in phase 8 very soon and then into 1 and 2.  I expect the models to start showing the mid month cold in the next few days.  The JMA was the last hold out on going into phase 8 and 1, it has joined the party also.

JMAN.png

 

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