Deweydog Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 In case anyone else is unhealthily living vicariously through their youth, here’s Tuesday evenings state of the blast: 4 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Late February is kind of goated, a relatively untapped time of year. The airmasses are still quite decent but a lot needs to go right to stay below freezing all day given the higher sun angles. 1956, 1990, and 2011 are the best examples (even 2022 was pretty cold despite being so dry. What I'm saying is that it's climatologically feasible for a 26/15 type day if all were to go right, albeit quite defficult. But if it were to happen, records would be shattered. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 24 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Control (worthless on its own and is no better than an single ensemble member) shows a nice blast Pres day blizzard still on track 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 almost 1" of bonus snow today. models didn't even really pick it up except for the NAM 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Late February is kind of goated, a relatively untapped time of year. The airmasses are still quite decent but a lot needs to go right to stay below freezing all day given the higher sun angles. 1956, 1990, and 2011 are the best examples (even 2022 was pretty cold despite being so dry. What I'm saying is that it's climatologically feasible for a 26/15 type day if all were to go right, albeit quite defficult. But if it were to happen, records would be shattered. PDX had a 29/24 day in early March 1960 with a snowstorm from Eugene to Seattle. McMinnville had 11" of snow and a 34/22 day on the 3rd Some great snowstorms in that late Feb period like 1993 and 2019 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Late February is kind of goated, a relatively untapped time of year. The airmasses are still quite decent but a lot needs to go right to stay below freezing all day given the higher sun angles. 1956, 1990, and 2011 are the best examples (even 2022 was pretty cold despite being so dry. What I'm saying is that it's climatologically feasible for a 26/15 type day if all were to go right, albeit quite defficult. But if it were to happen, records would be shattered. On the other end of the rapidly sliding spectrum, Eugene got around 6” on 2/28/96 with a lovely longwave pattern like this and still managed a high of 50… 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, Doinko said: PDX had a 29/24 day in early March 1960 with a snowstorm from Eugene to Seattle. McMinnville had 11" of snow and a 34/22 day on the 3rd Some great snowstorms in that late Feb period like 1993 and 2019 March 1960 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 42 minutes ago, Doinko said: March 1960 The article on the lower right "Remains Calm" is hilarious. 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The article on the lower right "Remains Calm" is hilarious. I love looking at these old newspapers. Here's something from the January 1960 snowstorms mentioned in that paper. Pretty dry summer followed. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: In case anyone else is unhealthily living vicariously through their youth, here’s Tuesday evenings state of the blast: Alaska ridge isn't anything real special in terms of 500mb heights over Anchorage, yet yeah nicely amplified. Southeast US ridge isn't real sharp. BUT the PV lobe is located favorably and phased nicely with the Hudson Bay PV and the air mass in general to our north was very bitter. 00z GFS in 30 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Alaska ridge isn't anything real special in terms of 500mb heights over Anchorage, yet yeah nicely amplified. Southeast US ridge isn't real sharp. BUT the PV lobe is located favorably and phased nicely with the Hudson Bay PV and the air mass in general to our north was very bitter. 00z GFS in 30 minutes The rest of the week’s episodes will be much prettier! 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: In case anyone else is unhealthily living vicariously through their youth, here’s Tuesday evenings state of the blast: I need to go raid my dads photo albums as I know we have pics from that event! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 15 minutes ago, Doinko said: I love looking at these old newspapers. Here's something from the January 1960 snowstorms mentioned in that paper. Pretty dry summer followed. Of course now the big snows are "worst in 50 years! or 100 years!" 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: In case anyone else is unhealthily living vicariously through their youth, here’s Tuesday evenings state of the blast: We pulled that off with a Hudson's Bay low too! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 GEFS continues to look nice. 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: GEFS continues to look nice. Just wait until Feb 4-5 (c)Rob 2023 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Tease! tease.mov 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Just wait until Feb 4-5 (c)Rob 2023 How far north will the 60-burgers get on that day? 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 50-burgers up to Whatcom County on the 5th (and look at that 57 in Pendleton!). 2 1 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: How far north will the 60-burgers get on that day? That's when the models begin to look mighty interesting, so perhaps Bakersfield.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: 50-burgers up to Whatcom County on the 5th (and look at that 57 in Pendleton!). A high of 50 degrees is about to become cooler than normal in Seattle. #winterinthepnw 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: 50-burgers up to Whatcom County on the 5th (and look at that 57 in Pendleton!). Average highs 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Light snow. 33.4˚F. 1 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Light snow. 33.4˚F. It’s coming! 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Quick drop in temps! Low for tomorrow suppose to be of 29F. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 5 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 00z GFS Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Day 6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 GFS now projecting -45°C 850mb temps in SE Canada/Maine. Ridiculous cold. 7 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Day 10 Loads of excitement so far 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: Given the currently raging -PAC (Phil and CFS), I'd say we're looking pretty spot on for a major late season blast come mid-late February. In all seriousness with -ENSO/+QBO and some MJO schenanigans, it won't take too much to bring in a decent Arctic airmass, Hudson Bay be damned. Baffin/Hudson vortex can be overcome but you need crazy amplification upstream. Like 2013/14 type stuff. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 That is one ugly GFS run. Looks like more of the same. 2 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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