Tom Posted December 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Both 00z Euro/control laying down a couple inches of snow over MSP area...both models are more agressive with the defo band. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120400/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_84.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Dang, is this storm a massive wind producer! Woke up a few times last night from the gusty winds. This system should be fun to track several more times during the LRC. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 The 6z models all pushing the heaviest snow further ESE. A possible last second victory in the making? Getting interesting. Currently 55F and should be snowing around 7-9pm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 The 6z models all pushing the heaviest snow further ESE. A possible last second victory in the making? Getting interesting. Currently 55F and should be snowing around 7-9pm.Yup, it's always exciting to see last minute trends in your favor. These type of situations with a rapidly deepening cyclone almost always produce a solid defo band. I know it wont be much but at least it'll change your landscape and have snow OTG when the cold comes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 06z NAM3km handles these dynamic storm systems quite well and is flashing a rather potent defo band. This will be fun for you guys in MN! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 NAM3km was over ambitious for us OHV peeps with last month's strong SLP, but this has a lot more cold going for it, so I hope it's closer to correct this go-round! Love to see the hazards map lit up! Ofc, can't help but also notice headlines to the left and right of SMI, and again nothing here. This has been common (aside from flooding - yay) so far this season. Hoping that streak dies a good death at some point.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Both high rez NAM's trending better with the defo band and looks like a couple inches are in store for MSP area... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 00z Euro...a different look at accumulations... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 If the hi-res cams are correct, I think MPX might have to consider adding WWA on top of the wind advisory. Several hours of moderate snow with crashing temps and gusts up to 30-40 mph is going to make it dicey outside. Unfortunately it’s going to take place late in the evening but I hope to get a glimpse of it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Gary Lezak is thinking the LRC is around 42-49 days (centered around 45.5 days)....he believes this storm is correlating well with the late October GL's bomb. Here are his maps below that illustrate the similarities. One can also argue this storm looks and tracks more similarly to the Oct 6th-7th storm also producing a 30-day harmonic bc in early Nov (3rd-5th) there was a wave that tracked across ND/N MN and laid down 1-4" of snow and into NW WI. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Gary Lezak is thinking the LRC is around 42-49 days (centered around 45.5 days)....he believes this storm is correlating well with the late October GL's bomb. Here are his maps below that illustrate the similarities. One can also argue this storm looks and tracks more similarly to the Oct 6th-7th storm also producing a 30-day harmonic bc in early Nov (3rd-5th) there was a wave that tracked across ND/N MN and laid down 1-4" of snow and into NW WI. I'd roll with that one.. Ofc, it does NOT look like we'll be getting the nice S Stream systems that we saw following shortly after, on Oct 10-11 and the 14th over our way. So, not sure what to think attm Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 I'd roll with that one.. Ofc, it does NOT look like we'll be getting the nice S Stream systems that we saw following shortly after, on Oct 10-11 and the 14th over our way. So, not sure what to think attmI will have to say that the influence of the extreme +PNA will have some effect to the cycling pattern and there is a system to monitor Dec 9-11th riding the thermal boundary down from the Rockies and tracking across our MW/GL's members. The Euro has flashed it for a couple runs and the Euro Control also lays down a nice swath of snow during this period. There are several chances for seeing snow after this system which builds the excitement to finally see a sticking snow. This particular system stands a better chance at hitting more of our members. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Tom would you be able to post the surface charts for Oct 6,7 for comparison? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Gary Lezak is thinking the LRC is around 42-49 days (centered around 45.5 days)....he believes this storm is correlating well with the late October GL's bomb. Here are his maps below that illustrate the similarities. One can also argue this storm looks and tracks more similarly to the Oct 6th-7th storm also producing a 30-day harmonic bc in early Nov (3rd-5th) there was a wave that tracked across ND/N MN and laid down 1-4" of snow and into NW WI.It's interesting how this doesn't match up with what happened in the beginning of October. I went back and looked at the upper levels around that time and what should then match up around the 18-25th of November, and there's really nothing there. The beginning of the month of October, specifically the 5-10th had persistent southwest flow, etc. The cycle for the corresponding part of November looks nothing like it. Is he saying the beginning part of October was not part of the new LRC then? I'm curious as that was our last active time here in Nebraska and now we've basically had nearly 2 months of NOTHING! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Gary Lezak is thinking the LRC is around 42-49 days (centered around 45.5 days)....he believes this storm is correlating well with the late October GL's bomb. Here are his maps below that illustrate the similarities. One can also argue this storm looks and tracks more similarly to the Oct 6th-7th storm also producing a 30-day harmonic bc in early Nov (3rd-5th) there was a wave that tracked across ND/N MN and laid down 1-4" of snow and into NW WI.Also what is different for you when you talk about LRC and then also a 30 day harmonic? Are those 2 different things where you believe one is different/more accurate than the other? Are you saying if a storm comes though on October 1st, than there will also be a storm on November 1st bc of the 30 day and then also a storm on 11/15 because of the LRC? But then that 30 day harmonic also cycles through on 12/1 again and then on 12/15 you have the LRC 45 day from the 30 day harmonic storm on 11/1 and then the 30 day harmonic from the storm from 11/15? So basically any one storm at the beginning of the new cycle is producing a storm every 15 days, not to mention any other different storms? Wouldn't it be non stop storminess? See what I am saying? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 I will have to say that the influence of the extreme +PNA will have some effect to the cycling pattern and there is a system to monitor Dec 9-11th riding the thermal boundary down from the Rockies and tracking across our MW/GL's members. The Euro has flashed it for a couple runs and the Euro Control also lays down a nice swath of snow during this period. There are several chances for seeing snow after this system which builds the excitement to finally see a sticking snow. This particular system stands a better chance at hitting more of our members. You're correct, and I didn't mean to imply that there was nothing happening going forward. Just meant that the 9-11th system as currently prog'd does not hold a candle to the Oct system that gave mby ~1.5" qpf on some really nice easterly winds. Convert that to a winter regime and you're looking at a serious storm. Ofc, as you said, we could get a similar energy this time around, just not the same moisture feed. Hey, I'm not complaining, I'll get some white sooner than later, and I just need the grass topped to make it look and feel like the Season with my decorations lit. They look so much better with a bit of snow OTG Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Also what is different for you when you talk about LRC and then also a 30 day harmonic? Are those 2 different things where you believe one is different/more accurate than the other? Are you saying if a storm comes though on October 1st, than there will also be a storm on November 1st bc of the 30 day and then also a storm on 11/15 because of the LRC? But then that 30 day harmonic also cycles through on 12/1 again and then on 12/15 you have the LRC 45 day from the 30 day harmonic storm on 11/1 and then the 30 day harmonic from the storm from 11/15? So basically any one storm at the beginning of the new cycle is producing a storm every 15 days, not to mention any other different storms? Wouldn't it be non stop storminess? See what I am saying? Iiuc, his reference to a 30-day harmonic could be thought of as a "sub-cycle" within the larger full (L)RC, but we'll let him break it down.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 I've always been sceptical of the LRC, since a lot of correlations don't happen, and sometimes the patterns are different all together. There could be something there, but if he wants people to trust it, I think he needs to get a peer reviewed paper showing it in action. Because I've honestly only seen rough coincidences, but nothing to really be hugely useful. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 NAM3km teasing me with a 94 streamer Wed evening. I see you! (over-ambitious short-ranger) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 It's interesting how this doesn't match up with what happened in the beginning of October. I went back and looked at the upper levels around that time and what should then match up around the 18-25th of November, and there's really nothing there. The beginning of the month of October, specifically the 5-10th had persistent southwest flow, etc. The cycle for the corresponding part of November looks nothing like it. Is he saying the beginning part of October was not part of the new LRC then? I'm curious as that was our last active time here in Nebraska and now we've basically had nearly 2 months of NOTHING!According to Gary Lezak, the beginning part of the LRC has already cycled through for LRC cycle #2, in other words, the Oct 6th-7th system has passed. Also what is different for you when you talk about LRC and then also a 30 day harmonic? Are those 2 different things where you believe one is different/more accurate than the other? Are you saying if a storm comes though on October 1st, than there will also be a storm on November 1st bc of the 30 day and then also a storm on 11/15 because of the LRC? But then that 30 day harmonic also cycles through on 12/1 again and then on 12/15 you have the LRC 45 day from the 30 day harmonic storm on 11/1 and then the 30 day harmonic from the storm from 11/15? So basically any one storm at the beginning of the new cycle is producing a storm every 15 days, not to mention any other different storms? Wouldn't it be non stop storminess? See what I am saying? What I mean by the 30-day harmonic cycle is exactly what Jaster said, it's a mini-cycle, that I believe is cycling regularly and I will show you what I mean. Also, as far as your SW Flow, take a look at the upper jet pattern and there is a SW flow present with this system bc if there wasn't...how would be get a hard cutter??? Take a look at the 500mb contour map below on Oct 7th 12z. Notice a few things A) The storm near NE Vortex near Hudson Bay C) Ridge poking up near Alaska http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/171204161434.gif Now look at the current 12z map below...how can one NOT argue this is similar??? Look at the flow coming out of the SW....and the Split Flow in the NE PAC...there is your answer IMHO.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 994 mb closed as of Noon EST Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 We have a wind advisory at least! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 This is more like the month! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 I've always been sceptical of the LRC, since a lot of correlations don't happen, and sometimes the patterns are different all together. There could be something there, but if he wants people to trust it, I think he needs to get a peer reviewed paper showing it in action. Because I've honestly only seen rough coincidences, but nothing to really be hugely useful.Exactly. According to Lezak, the pattern around the first week in October has already passed and we are on the second cycle. So according to Lezak than, the roughly 45 day cycle would have come through the week of 11/20-11/25 or so and they looked nothing alike. I guess this storm we're having today is actually part of a mini 30 day harmonic cycle according to Tom, but according to Lezak it's part of his LRC day 42. If you go to his blog here: http://weather2020.com/2017/12/04/a-northern-plains-upper-midwest-winter-storm/ then he shares his thoughts on this system. Apparently this pattern is aligning with what happened back on 10/23 and he shows the maps comparing the two. Here's the beef I have with the LRC. First off the upper level low back in October tracked down through TN it looks like. Today it is going up through MN. Also today there is a piece of energy back in CA that is NOWHERE on the maps back in October where there is a nice ridge. #2, 4, and 5 look similar, but at what point do we call close enough similar? It just seems at times like it's a very broad interpretation of the weather patterns to call them similar. But hey what do I know? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 MSP just set a record for Dec 4 by hitting 57F. The 32F line is just now reaching the MN/SD border. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Some 500 mb images from October and when the cycle should have come through again in November. I'm splitting them up by month. Anyone have any thoughts on how Lezak can consider this similar or what am I missing? I know he's been doing this for 30 years and weather is never perfectly predicted, so I don't know maybe this is just an exception to the rule. I've seen it work lots of times before, but at times I've had my doubts with it as well.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 November. I just realized this is in the storm thread vs maybe it should be in the winter discussion thread. Sorry! Feel free to move if it's not too much work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 While we debate the (L)RC, this blue blob is getting scary close to E Neb peeps, and appears to be a couple curly hairs south of prior prog's fwiw.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Nebraska once you get a bit north of I-80 might as well be SD weatherwise, just don't think anyone actually lives there LOL 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Storm's the real-deal. (Idk if we edit thread titles as we go here, but could lose the word potential) Saw a Keweenaw peep griping yesterday that it's been such a quiet stretch for the season up that way. Well, this is how you classically break a lame streak UP style (MQT afd): .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)Issued at 443 AM EST MON DEC 4 2017...SEVERE WINTER WEATHER ON THE KEWEENAW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... How 'bout some snow with 70 mph gusts! fun-fun-fun! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 If the hi-res cams are correct, I think MPX might have to consider adding WWA on top of the wind advisory. Several hours of moderate snow with crashing temps and gusts up to 30-40 mph is going to make it dicey outside. Unfortunately it’s going to take place late in the evening but I hope to get a glimpse of it.Good call, eh? URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN233 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 ...POWERFUL STORM TO BRING STRONG WIND AND SOME SNOW THROUGHTONIGHT...INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA... .Snow accumulation from 2 to 4 inches is expected from westerninto central Minnesota accompanied by winds gusting to 50 MPH latethis afternoon and tonight. The combination of falling snow and avery strong northwest wind will create low visibilities with nearblizzard conditions across west central Minnesota, where a winterstorm warning is in effect from noon until midnight Monday night. To the east, a winter weather advisory is in effect for much ofcentral Minnesota from 3 PM this afternoon until midnight wherethe combination of 1 to 3 inches of snow and strong northwest windwill cause reduced visibility and areas of blowing snow. The precipitation will fall in the form of rain initially, thenchange over to snow as temperatures fall Monday afternoon throughMonday night as a cold front moves from west to east across thestate. Northwest winds will become strong in the wake of thefront. If you travel, make sure to let someone know your travel plansand have a charged phone with you. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Low appears to be just over head at this hour. Temperatures can start dropping anytime now.... I'm waiting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 12z Euro taking it down to 972mb now..giddy-up for some #realdealwx! Enjoy your sideways plaster coating boys 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 I'm having horrible 13/14 flashbacks today. Cold, Brown, and WINDY. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Interesting to note here, the Dewpoint got up to a whopping 55 degrees today (via NWS Twitter). You could feel it outside, felt much like a spring day walking outside and not getting bitten by the cold. On the storm side of things the NWS has put out 1-3 in the forecast versus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Wow, lightning strikes near Menomonie, WI and Red Wing, MN to the ESE of the Cities. This thing is ramping up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Standing outside like: May I request some blowing dust with that wind advisory, please? 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 APX adds a few counties in the Straights region under a WSWatch..5-10+ with gusts to 45 mph..not bad for a starter up there 260FXUS63 KAPX 042024AFDAPXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Gaylord MI324 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)Issued at 322 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017...Big changes a`coming...High impact weather potential...Plenty! High wind potential tonightand Tuesday , especially along Lake Michigan. Few non-severethunderstorms possible this evening. Lake snow threat on theincrease later Tuesday. Long duration widespread gale event acrossthe Great Lakes. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Standing outside like: May I request some blowing dust with that wind advisory, please? LOL, apparently nobody does blowing dust like Neb! (at least you got a headline) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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