DareDuck Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 It was 12 in Bend when I left for work this morning. Up at 6300’ it’s 35. Going to be a warm one today above the inversion. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Santa will be making a westerly approach at PDX according to the 12z. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Santa will be making a westerly approach at PDX according to the 12z. Yep... cold east winds and sunshine. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Santa will be making a westerly approach at PDX according to the 12z. Good old 10L is my favorite! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 12Z followed the trend of the ensembles and parked the big ridge right over us around Christmas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Good old 10L is my favorite!Should be a good view of the St. Johns Bridge and Sauvie Island. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Sounds of the wind here this morning before the sun comes up... https://vimeo.com/246594215I love that sound. That dull roar through the trees basically defines winter for me. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Pretty good 12z run. A legit cold shot and then a ridge moves in right over us again. At the end of the run another ridge apporoaches from the WNW which promises another round of retrogression. Many freezing low temps the remainder of the month if this verifies. FWIW the CFS is showing cold on every run now. In fact out of the last 4 all showed multiple cold shots over the next 45 days. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Pretty good 12z run. A legit cold shot and then a ridge moves in right over us again. At the end of the run another ridge apporoaches from the WNW which promises another round of retrogression. Many freezing low temps the remainder of the month if this verifies. FWIW the CFS is showing cold on every run now. In fact out of the last 4 all showed multiple cold shots over the next 45 days.Again those are the ensembles? The "operational" or control run or whatever that is has been showing warm for most of the last week or runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Again those are the ensembles? The "operational" or control run or whatever that is has been showing warm for most of the last week or runs.The CFS has a popular "create your own model run" function. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I love that sound. That dull roar through the trees basically defines winter for me. Cable news channels show a very snowy DC this morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 12z ensembles are actually super decent. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Fog is hanging tough around the Sound... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Very foggy and 22 here right now. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Again those are the ensembles? The "operational" or control run or whatever that is has been showing warm for most of the last week or runs. I'm a bit confused about all of that. The way they present it on the Weatherbell site doesn't make it totally clear. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 12z ensembles are actually super decent. Many members get into the -7 to -8 range. One thing people need to keep in mind is if we get a shot of legit cold (especially if it's with snow) going into a ridge again is not a bad thing as long as it doesn't last too long. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I'm a bit confused about all of that. The way they present it on the Weatherbell site doesn't make it totally clear.At the wx.graphics site, they have the CFS monthlies, and from there, you can go to the "last 25 stamps" and see the trend. But I don't think it is emsembles, probably the operational. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 The easterly gradients are stronger this morning than what had been advertised on previous model runs so today may be a bit warmer than yesterday in some places. On the other hand the angle of the gradient might mitigate that. Tomorrow's gradient looks more like yesterday (if that actually verifies). Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 At the wx.graphics site, they have the CFS monthlies, and from there, you can go to the "last 25 stamps" and see the trend. But I don't think it is emsembles, probably the operational. On Weatherbell even the monthly composite is looking decent for January. Besides that I am confident about January anyway. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 The easterly gradients are stronger this morning than what had been advertised on previous model runs so today may be a bit warmer than yesterday in some places. On the other hand the angle of the gradient might mitigate that. Tomorrow's gradient looks more like yesterday (if that actually verifies). The easterly gradient was shown to be stronger today on every single run this week of the WRF and ECMWF. The gradient angle will mitigate that for the South Sound for sure as I mentioned last night. That being said... SEA is back down to 1/8th mile visibility in fog so clearly the easterly gradients have slacked off there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 The easterly gradient was shown to be stronger today on every single run this week of the WRF and ECMWF. The gradient angle will mitigate that for the South Sound for sure as I mentioned last night.Tim for president! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Up to 44 here now with a brisk wind continuing. My son is skiing at Alpental and said its absolutely freezing at the bottom in the clouds and very warm at the top in the sunshine. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Many members get into the -7 to -8 range. One thing people need to keep in mind is if we get a shot of legit cold (especially if it's with snow) going into a ridge again is not a bad thing as long as it doesn't last too long.We should make it clear to this ridge in no uncertain terms that it's presence here is not entirely appreciated... Hopefully it will take the hint and head west... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Only up to 31 so far...about the same as yesterday at this time. Wall to wall sunshine! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I did find an interesting web site for CFS ensembles, and I looked up the guys name who runs it, and he is a "Science & Operations Officer at NOAA/National Weather Service", so it is a legit site, even though it is not a .gov site. http://cfs.hopwrf.info/ Good tools there, lots of maps. It says " The output on this site is based on a 20-member ensemble generated from the four daily CFS control runs (00, 06, 12, & 18 UTC) over the past five days. Output is updated as each cycle is processed, and is typically available approximately 15 hours after cycle time (e.g. output which includes the latest 00 UTC run is available around 15 UTC)." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Almost a 50% chance of a below normal period for Christmas eve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 The easterly gradients are stronger this morning than what had been advertised on previous model runs so today may be a bit warmer than yesterday in some places. On the other hand the angle of the gradient might mitigate that. Tomorrow's gradient looks more like yesterday (if that actually verifies). Tomorrow the ECMWF shows more of a northerly gradient around Seattle. That provides more mixing for the South Sound compared to today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Almost a 50% chance of a below normal period for Christmas eve. 2017120900_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@below@normal@week2_198.png Puget Sound and Willamette Valley well below normal. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Should be a good view of the St. Johns Bridge and Sauvie Island. One of the most beautiful approaches in the lower 48 IMO. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 One of the most beautiful approaches in the lower 48 IMO.Landing in Seattle is prettier. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I did find an interesting web site for CFS ensembles, and I looked up the guys name who runs it, and he is a "Science & Operations Officer at NOAA/National Weather Service", so it is a legit site, even though it is not a .gov site. http://cfs.hopwrf.info/ Good tools there, lots of maps. It says " The output on this site is based on a 20-member ensemble generated from the four daily CFS control runs (00, 06, 12, & 18 UTC) over the past five days. Output is updated as each cycle is processed, and is typically available approximately 15 hours after cycle time (e.g. output which includes the latest 00 UTC run is available around 15 UTC)." Good! That clears up the mystery of the ensemble vs operational question. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Landing in Seattle is prettier. Seattle is beautiful as well, but runway 10 at PDX is stunning over St. Johns along the Columbia looking dead on at Mt. Hood. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Good! That clears up the mystery of the ensemble vs operational question.Yeah, I thought that they ran CFS ensembles like they did the GFS and Euro ensembles. I found this at the NOAA site: "How many CFS forecasts should be combined into an ensemble?Because climate runs are done daily from different sets of initial conditions, we can combine the different runs to give an ensemble of climate forecasts. Multiple climate runs allow climate forecasters to obtain probabilities for seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies. Given the uncertainty in climate forecasts, this is a natural application of the ensemble method. The CPC uses around 40 CFS forecasts to obtain reasonable climate forecast probabilities and a good ensemble mean climate forecast." Tropical Tidbits does their weekly based on 48 forecasts, or 12 days. That other web site does it over 5 days, or 20 runs. CPS says 40 runs or 10 days, but I wonder if that is for the monthlies, not the weeklies. And I think the above statement was written several years ago, before version 2, and maybe before they even did the weeklies. Anyway, regardless of number, now we know how they do their ensembles. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Seattle is beautiful as well, but runway 10 at PDX is stunning over St. Johns along the Columbia looking dead on at Mt. Hood.San Francisco during landing is also quite stunning on a clear day! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Almost a 50% chance of a below normal period for Christmas eve. 2017120900_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@below@normal@week2_198.png This is actually better than it sounds. These are broken into three groups. Below, near normal, and above. If you have a 50% chance of below that means you only have a 25% chance of above. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 San Francisco during landing is also quite stunning on a clear day!I’ve heard landing a floatplane on Lake Goodwin and spooking the jetskiiers there is quite satisfying as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I’ve heard landing a floatplane on Lake Goodwin and spooking the jetskiiers there is quite satisfying as well.Nah the jetskiiers love to race the float planes that are landing and taking off! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I kinda like Lax, nothing like smog and upside down stripped cars decorating the streets below. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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