December Weather In the PNW

[snow_wizard]

The EPS looks similar to the GEFS at day 10, but the offshore blocking is sharper and stronger.  The EPS out to day 15 will be available shortly and I'll let you know how that looks.

[wx_statman]

Yeah that was a very impressive event for a lot of the Intermountain West but pretty boring in the PNW.

 

I remember tracking that cold wave and being VERY disappointed that more of it didn't spill west. Really impressive though. Billings has yet to hit -30 after getting there on 1-12-1997. Sheridan Airport was even more impressive with their -35...all-time record is -37 in Dec 1983.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF based teleconnection forecasts are fantastic at day 10.  The WPO, EPO, and PNA are all tanked.

[Gradient Keeper]

The ECMWF based teleconnection forecasts are fantastic at day 10.  The WPO, EPO, and PNA are all tanked.

12z runs tomorrow will be improved/colder.

[snow_wizard]

Now that's what I'm talking about!

 

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

The EPS looks similar to the GEFS at day 10, but the offshore blocking is sharper and stronger.  The EPS out to day 15 will be available shortly and I'll let you know how that looks.

You are really going to like day 10+

[Gradient Keeper]

Current IR

 

[BLI snowman]

I remember tracking that cold wave and being VERY disappointed that more of it didn't spill west. Really impressive though. Billings has yet to hit -30 after getting there on 1-12-1997. Sheridan Airport was even more impressive with their -35...all-time record is -37 in Dec 1983.

 

Yeah we just got screwed every which way that winter. And just a couple weeks after that there was yet another Fraser River blast that petered out around Everett.

[wx_statman]

Yeah we just got screwed every which way that winter. And just a couple weeks after that there was yet another Fraser River blast that petered out around Everett.

 

I remember that one. Another really cold airmass that just grazed us. Some pretty impressive readings from MT out to the Plains with that one too. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Not sure if it's anything, but compared to 00z NAM the 6z NAM is a notch faster with the ridge merger and the block at HR 69 the block is a north further northwest.

 

Check out the 00z EPS 15 Day Forecast. Gorge east is an ICE BOX

 

Portland

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121800/city/KPDX_2017121800_forecast_EPS_360.png

 

The Dalles

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121800/city/KDLS_2017121800_forecast_EPS_360.png

 

Moses Lake

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121800/city/KMWH_2017121800_forecast_EPS_360.png

[Perturbed Member]

06z GFS is even worse. Things slightly further east. Friday is even warmer and drier. Glad Euro and GEM do not look like this. 

[Gradient Keeper]

06z GFS is even worse. Things slightly further east. Friday is even warmer and drier. Glad Euro and GEM do not look like this. 

I just woke up. 6z Op is the absolutely worst run in quite awhile. Unfortunately I am getting a sense that we very well may lose the GEM and EURO today with this new awful trend. All we need is a weaker cut-off low or a Kona to swing things back in our favor. We'll see of course. I guess I'll wait to see the 6z GEFS and 12z runs later this morning before losing any optimism. 12z GFS in 5 hours 7 minutes

[MikeInEverett]

Welp

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yep. Stick a fork in this one guys!

[Phil]

Ben Noll‏Verified account @BenNollWeather 1h1 hour ago

 

 

More

 

Latest ECMWF MJO phase diagram show the signature moving through the colder U.S. phases through the rest of Dec, but could very well reach 2-3-4 in Jan ... should turn milder

 

mjo.jpg

 

 

Note: I follow his tweets, but sometimes he forgets that the PNW is part of the Continental US.

Phases 2-3 are NOT warm phases for the US.

[Jbolin]

There isn't enough Xanax in the world to offset the daily panic attack the members of this board suffer on a daily basis let alone a 3-6 hr basis.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That terrible feeling when you set your alarm for the night shift and realize you have completely wasted your time and lost precious sleep.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There isn't enough Xanax in the world to offset the daily panic attack the members of this board suffer on a daily basis let alone a 3-6 hr basis.

 

Dispensaries across the PNW are reporting record sales...

[Perturbed Member]

I just woke up. 6z Op is the absolutely worst run in quite awhile. Unfortunately I am getting a sense that we very well may lose the GEM and EURO today with this new awful trend. All we need is a weaker cut-off low or a Kona to swing things back in our favor. We'll see of course. I guess I'll wait to see the 6z GEFS and 12z runs later this morning before losing any optimism. 12z GFS in 5 hours 7 minutes

 

Yeah it certainly isn't encouraging but the consistency of the GEM and the overall agreement of the ECMWF OP and EPS still feels decent for now. 

 

FWIW, over the last 7 days, 14 days and 30 days the operational GFS has been dead last in verification scores for predicting 500mb heights over North America. The GFS ENS has been a bit better than the OP in those periods but they have both been significantly worse than the CMC ENS and ECMWF EPS which have been fairly even. CMC ENS has been top dog the last 14 and 7 days.

 

Hoping the GFS is just completely lost on handling this pattern. Onto the 12z. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is why taking a victory lap a week out is a fools errand. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah it certainly isn't encouraging but the consistency of the GEM and the overall agreement of the ECMWF OP and EPS still feels decent for now. 

 

FWIW, over the last 7 days, 14 days and 30 days the operational GFS has been dead last in verification scores for predicting 500mb heights over North America. The GFS ENS has been a bit better than the OP in those periods but they have both been significantly worse than the CMC ENS and ECMWF EPS which have been fairly even. CMC ENS has been top dog the last 14 and 7 days.

 

Hoping the GFS is just completely lost on handling this pattern. Onto the 12z. 

 

We will see. If we have a blast I will give the GEM major kudos. If we do not Peasant GFS wins the day.

[TT-SEA]

That terrible feeling when you set your alarm for the night shift and realize you have completely wasted your time and lost precious sleep.

 

And the 06Z GFS ensembles are a complete train wreck as well... here is here late Christmas Eve:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f168.gif

[Jesse]

I think it was Phil who said the GEFS has an overwhelming tendency to trend toward the operational sometimes. I.e. if the op is bad the ensembles have a higher chance of being bad as well.

 

As long as the EPS is looking good I have a hard time being pessimistic.

[TT-SEA]

I think it was Phil who said the GEFS has an overwhelming tendency to trend toward the operational sometimes. I.e. if the op is bad the ensembles have a higher chance of being bad as well.

 

As long as the EPS is looking good I have a hard time being pessimistic.

 

Particularly when we are talking about the 5-10 day period.  

[ShawniganLake]

A bit of snow for the north Sound.

 

 

[MossMan]

Who’s excited for the 12z’s!!!!!!!!

[MossMan]

It has rained pretty much non stop since the tail end of last week up here...soggy! 44 degrees currently.

[ShawniganLake]

Who’s excited for the 12z’s!!!!!!!!

The long range gfs has to come around at some point.

[Deweydog]

Who’s excited for the 12z’s!!!!!!!!

Who gets to hoist this morning's 12z flag?

[MossMan]

Who gets to hoist this morning's 12z flag?

Jesse!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS

 

Day 1

[Jesse]

Jesse!

You’re having a little too much fun with this.

[mountainman]

Hey Dropping the DJ...whats ur take on the anticipation for frozen precipitation for your friendly Canadians in Vancouver area...and thanks a lot!  I enjoy reading your analysis and the way you "drop" maps on here like it's a story hahahaha  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 everything is a notch further west

[liquidsnow]

Days since Winter has been cancelled: 0

 

Can we at least get to 1?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 slight improvements continue

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 energy west of block further north promoting improved tilt. Arctic air further west than 6z

[WeatherArchive]

Days since Winter has been cancelled: 0

 

Can we at least get to 1?

Does that mean schools will make it up going nearly into July now?  Oh your talking about a LACK of snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 102 12z 850s colder than 6z, 0z

 

12z

 

6z

 

0z

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 114 bit closer to modified arctic air. Colder than previous runs

 

Sadly this is the best we can do I believe on this run, but there were definite improvements and 00z could perhaps show a few notches more.