December Weather In the PNW

[Deweydog]

This is a pretty weak front coming in Sunday/Monday....

Wind storm cancel.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gfs caved to the nam.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Candy is dandy but liquor is quicker.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The only way to catch a doper is when you yourself become a smoker.

[Perturbed Member]

You say this after being nailed last winter?  I don't get it.

 

As far as the post you were commenting on...we are still very early in the winter.  I don't get the negativity on here when we have a great shot at seeing snow.  It almost makes it not fun to visit the forum during these events.

 

 

What is difficult to understand? Last years storm here was absolutely stunning, a weather geeks dream. I enjoyed every moment of it. It would be wonderful to have it every year.

 

But I've lived here long enough, both Seattle and Portland for long enough to know not to expect anything like that on any given winter. We've had several winters in a row before where we saw hardly any real accumulating snow and many heart breakers before where events fall apart at the last moment. I just don't count on really getting anything on a given winter. If we get a great event, I will gladly take it and enjoy it, but I keep my bar low because the reality is that we don't live in a very snowy climate. It is very marginal.

 

I'm not denying that this winter probably has an above average change of entertaining us, but even that hardly guarantees anything, we've had plenty of arctic outbreaks before that yield zero snow. To those who want to be optimistic about our chances, go ahead, I have no issue at all with it but I'm surprised that anyone could be confused about why someone would not hold very high hopes of an eventful winter in the PNW lowlands. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

GFS IS A PILE.

[MossMan]

GFS says portions of King County will get 6+ inches.

 

Shows it falling mainly overnight Sunday into Christmas day. That is perfect timing.

how about up north?

[MossMan]

GFS IS A PILE.

A pile of fluffy white puppies??

[Tyler Mode]

Easterly winds have picked up in Hood River.  Temp down from 38 to 34.  Still 38 here with rain.

[seattleweatherguy]

how about up north?

Hope you guys can score too!

[MossMan]

Down to 29.

[Perturbed Member]

I think this is coming together pretty nicely for SW WA through areas North of Seattle. NAM, GFS, GEM, UKMET, NAVGEM, all favor the northern track. The Euro stands alone right now on taking things south. 00z Euro will be very telling. 

[Guest El nina]

I think this is coming together pretty nicely for SW WA through areas North of Seattle. NAM, GFS, GEM, UKMET, NAVGEM, all favor the northern track. The Euro stands alone right now on taking things south. 00z Euro will be very telling.

When is the next euro run?

[MossMan]

When is the next euro run?

It starts around or just after 9:30...I think. DJ left us without a model countdown.

[Perturbed Member]

It starts around or just after 9:30...I think. DJ left us without a model countdown.

 

Thought it was closer to 10?

 

 

Where is DJ? I'm surprised he isn't here at this time...

[snow_wizard]

GFS says portions of King County will get 6+ inches.

 

Shows it falling mainly overnight Sunday into Christmas day. That is perfect timing.

 

I like the snow it's showing Christmas morning for King County.  Classic backwash situation.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[snow_wizard]

What is difficult to understand? Last years storm here was absolutely stunning, a weather geeks dream. I enjoyed every moment of it. It would be wonderful to have it every year.

 

But I've lived here long enough, both Seattle and Portland for long enough to know not to expect anything like that on any given winter. We've had several winters in a row before where we saw hardly any real accumulating snow and many heart breakers before where events fall apart at the last moment. I just don't count on really getting anything on a given winter. If we get a great event, I will gladly take it and enjoy it, but I keep my bar low because the reality is that we don't live in a very snowy climate. It is very marginal.

 

I'm not denying that this winter probably has an above average change of entertaining us, but even that hardly guarantees anything, we've had plenty of arctic outbreaks before that yield zero snow. To those who want to be optimistic about our chances, go ahead, I have no issue at all with it but I'm surprised that anyone could be confused about why someone would not hold very high hopes of an eventful winter in the PNW lowlands. 

 

The deck is heavily stacked in our favor this winter and likely will be next winter too.  Don't underestimate the power of a Nina winter during solar minimum.  You add to that the persistent above normal heights over the GOA during the autumn and you have the recipe for a good winter here.  I don't blame you for feeling the way you do though.

[wxmet]

Skew-T looks good at KSEA:

 

[snow_wizard]

The operational run is a bit colder for Christmas Eve than previous runs.  It shows less areas having rain.  The amount of moisture being shown is pretty generous.  Another interesting point is the current trough is verifying colder than earlier runs had shown.  Nice to see things trend colder at the last minute with these.  The situation next week still looks very close with us being on the back edge of that huge trough over Canada.  Still potential for that to be another cold shot.

[HighlandExperience]

When is the next euro run?

It will start running on the free site at 10pm

[High Desert Mat!]

Classic backwash? Snowstorms are anything but classic here. Just to few and far between. Backwash, maybe we can start it as a new top ten!!!!

[Jbolin]

Plenty.

That pink bulls-eye over king county bruh

[MossMan]

Plenty.

Beautiful! Though almost every one of those maps shoes a small area of nothing right over my house for some reason...

[HighlandExperience]

Plenty.

Wow that looks awesome for King County. Crossing fingers on euro

[HighlandExperience]

CMC staying consistent. Especially good for Pierce County

[Winterdog]

Beautiful! Though almost every one of those maps shoes a small area of nothing right over my house for some reason...

Over mine as well.   

[MossMan]

Over mine as well.

Apparently we have been put on the naughty list.

[Winterdog]

Apparently we have been put on the naughty list.

I already said you were nice earlier.  It must be something else.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z UKMET looks south compared to 12z run, hard to tell though.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Definitely slower on the WRF... that is usually a good thing.   All the action is south during the day on Sunday which is what the ECMWF has been showing for the last couple runs.

 

This is through 4 p.m.  (waiting for the next 12 hour total map to update)

 

[Geos]

Down to freezing here. 

 

Nice numbers. Like 7" here.

 

[HighlandExperience]

 

WRF still showing widespread snow over King County. Not bad totals either. Isolated 5 inch totals near Issaquah Alps. 

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is fantastic for the East Puget Sound Lowlands for a white Christmas.  I'm not sure what type the precip will be when the low center is SW of us, but once the center shifts east of the area the model depicts crashing 925mb temps with continued precip.  If true it will be more than cold enough for snow.  Could be a few inches with temps in the upper 20s on Christmas morning.

[TT-SEA]

 

 

You beat me to it!  

 

Nice totals for King County for sure. 

 

It is definitely moving toward the ECMWF with the sharp cut off to the north... that was not on previous WRF runs but the ECMWF has been showing that since yesterday.  

[snow_wizard]

If the GFS verifies the next week looks quite cold in spite of an unimpressive 500mb pattern.

[HighlandExperience]

The UKmet appears to want to bring the low right over the columbia river? I am not sure, but it looks like it to me. I am only mentioning that model, because it is legit =)

[snow_wizard]

Holy !  The longer range GFS looks fantastic.  Major blocking setting up over the GOA.  This is getting good now!

[Deweydog]

Holy s**t! The longer range GFS looks fantastic. Major blocking setting up over the GOA. This is getting good now!

?

[MossMan]

28!