The Winter Solstice Storm

[jaster220]

All the models?

 

 Yep, every last one, except the DGEX ofc..(j/k) I meant the big (3) globals. Some will say the GEM is puke. But it scores well, perhaps better on NW flow Clippers which are sometimes my bread-n-butter snow-makers like we've just seen. You can toss the GEM if you feel the need. Was speaking personally for mby

[jaster220]

The GOM is open for business. I am seeing moisture building up down there. Something to keep an eye on the next few days.

 

It's great if we can get a load of it falling as snow in the next 7 days! 

[gosaints]

 Yep, every last one, except the DGEX ofc..(j/k) I meant the big (3) globals. Some will say the GEM is puke. But it scores well, perhaps better on NW flow Clippers which are sometimes my bread-n-butter snow-makers like we've just seen. You can toss the GEM if you feel the need. Was speaking personally for mby

gotcha.  Statistically the EURO still rules long term especially at 500 mb, but I do agree that the GFS is a nice model and the GGEM has its uses, though this setup up wouldn't be in its wheelhouse, but who knows this could be one of its coup's.

[Niko]

It's great if we can get a load of it falling as snow in the next 7 days! 

Right on!

[bud2380]

Well the Euro is depressing for most of Iowa.  Chances of a White Christmas are fading here...

[gosaints]

[GDR]

I’d say 10 percent at best south of i80

[St Paul Storm]

Kinda weak at 1010 but that path from the panhandle is good for you, no?

[gosaints]

Ya good path.  Currently thinking high end advisory type stuff

[Tom]

After HR 84, 12z EPS members have quite the spread.  I'm still not convinced of a weak storm the 12z Euro op suggested.  For instance, the 12z Euro Control has a deepening storm as the wave from the south runs up the boundary and the storm seems to want to go neg tilt while a defo band forms across S/C WI.

[Money]

Is the euro control like an average of all the runs? I never knew the difference between op Euro and euro control

[Minny_Weather]

Is the euro control like an average of all the runs? I never knew the difference between op Euro and euro control

The average would be the mean, not the control. As for the difference between OP and control, someone else can answer that.

[Tom]

Is the euro control like an average of all the runs? I never knew the difference between op Euro and euro control

I look at the Euro control as the "little brother" to the Euro Op.  Its one run, not an ensemble like the EPS.

 

Edit: Maybe its a higher resolution like the NAM models???  I'm not sure, maybe someone else can provide this info.

[St Paul Storm]

I believe the control is actually a lower resolution run, without as many grid points on the map. I think the ‘little brother’ comparison is a good way to put it.

[Tom]

12z GEPS...

 

 

 

 

 

[Snowshoe]

NWS GRB

 

 

 

The focus will continue to be on a potential winter storm, which
looks like it will be long-lived, impacting the region from
Wednesday night through Friday. The initial band of mainly light
snow is expected to arrive Wednesday evening and become focused
over northern WI. This will develop in the RRQ of an upper jet,
aided by WAA and mid-level frontogenetic forcing. RH timesections
show possible moisture concerns late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, which could limit accumulations. The 12z ECMWF and GFS
both ramp the storm up on Thursday afternoon and night, as coupled
upper jets develop, and low pressure lifts northeast from the OK
Panhandle. The low has shifted farther south again, and is now
expected to track near Chicago/southern Lake Michigan. Suspect
that a band of 6 to 10 inches of snow will fall somewhere in the
forecast area, most likely from central into northeast WI, but
pinpointing the axis of heaviest snow is a low confidence forecast
this far out. Expect most of the precipitation to fall as snow,
though the ECMWF shows some minor dry slotting in our southern
counties, which could result in periodic freezing drizzle. This
storm has the potential to cause significant impacts on early
Christmas travel.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

New nam way more south. And no i wouldnt be sitting confy. If euro had a good storm here and gfs didnt, i would pretty much feel like this aint happening lol.

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah that NAM wasn't half bad for those who are expecting little to nothing here. Maybe a two incher as it is still snowing at the end.

[Money]

Gfs pretty similar overall

 

Maybe a tad nw from 12z

[St Paul Storm]

Little tick north on the GFS compared to 12z it looks like. Weaker as well.

 

Tidbit from MPX:

The big point to make here

is that the operational GFS was near the top of the GEFS members

guidance last night, and now its near the bottom of the chart. So,

the GEFS members did not change much overall and the mean solution

still paints a 4-6" snowfall across much of southern MN and even the

southern and eastern metro area.

 

They also introduced snow mixed with freezing rain Wed night and Thurs. Wut?

[Snowlover76]

Yeah that NAM wasn't half bad for those who are expecting little to nothing here. Maybe a two incher as it is still snowing at the end.

why do you still have hope over this? 

[Stormgeek]

Looks like unless there is a NW trend last minute, southern MN is going to steal yet another snow storm from my area. Still a while to go obviously, but getting closer to the event and the snow is getting further away. Guess we will wait and see what the king and GFS have to say at 00z. Surely a storm has to hit sometime, right?As a disclaimer this is a post talking of the major snows (6+), not any snow at all. Looking good for a couple as of right now around here.

[St Paul Storm]

^ The 12z Euro shows a nice hit here and the 18z GFS stopped the south trend for now. Not all hope is lost. Plenty of time for significant changes.

[Madtown]

South of chi/tip of LM is normally good here...is the precip farther north?

[bud2380]

12 GEFS - i counted only 5 of 21 members with enough snow for a white Christmas IMBY.  Not looking good.  Only a couple of the 21 members show any appreciable accumulating snow for my area from the Thursday system.  

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GEFS/2017121812/All_USANC_ASNOWIPER_sfc_174.gif

[bud2380]

BTW - here is the 18z Canadian (it only goes to 84 hours)

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_18/P6_GZ_D5_PN_084_0000.gif

[bud2380]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_18/accum/PR_000-084_0000.gif

[bud2380]

Interesting wording from DVN regarding the CMC and the storm it continues to show.

 

 

The overall flow pattern will undergo a significant change from what
it has been doing the past several weeks. Such a significant change
usually results in the development of a strong storm system. The CMC
global does develop such a storm while the ECMWF/GFS do not. The
ECMWF and GFS runs will need to be watched over the next 72 hours to
see if they start trending toward the CMC global.

[Jaycee]

why do you still have hope over this? 

 

Because why not? Why hope that the Huskers will be any better if they've sucked the past few years? It's because there is a chance, I don't care what anyone says. If we don't get it, that's fine. But like yesterday, NO ONE expected us to get snow in the morning, until the radar literally had snow falling. If we would have been cold enough we could've got like 3-4" out of that, and no one would have expected it. Remember 2 years ago, when Omaha got 8" on a random snow band that hovered over them? This is what I mean. Do I think we'll get anything like that? Nope. Neither does LNK_Wx. But we don't come here to be pessimistic, we come here because the potential for snow is there, and it's stupid to sit there and complain just to say "I told you so", versus being hopeful that there is something we can track.

[OKwx2k4]

I don't see a way that that low doesn't deepen dramatically when it hits the arklatex. Just my 2 cents. Long way to go.

[Tony]

Interesting wording from DVN regarding the CMC and the storm it continues to show.

 

 

The overall flow pattern will undergo a significant change from what

it has been doing the past several weeks. Such a significant change

usually results in the development of a strong storm system. The CMC

global does develop such a storm while the ECMWF/GFS do not. The

ECMWF and GFS runs will need to be watched over the next 72 hours to

see if they start trending toward the CMC global.

Even the Mets are hoping that something comes out of all this mess. Maybe the Nam will throw us a bone, maybe for at least one run!

[hlcater]

Interesting wording from DVN regarding the CMC and the storm it continues to show.

 

 

The overall flow pattern will undergo a significant change from what

it has been doing the past several weeks. Such a significant change

usually results in the development of a strong storm system. The CMC

global does develop such a storm while the ECMWF/GFS do not. The

ECMWF and GFS runs will need to be watched over the next 72 hours to

see if they start trending toward the CMC global.

The fact that DVN is partially buying the CMC is certainly intriguing to say the least. Even if it was a semi-expected outcome, I still wouldn't put any stock in it. Especially when virtually all other guidance go against it.

[NEJeremy]

Because why not? Why hope that the Huskers will be any better if they've sucked the past few years? It's because there is a chance, I don't care what anyone says. If we don't get it, that's fine. But like yesterday, NO ONE expected us to get snow in the morning, until the radar literally had snow falling. If we would have been cold enough we could've got like 3-4" out of that, and no one would have expected it. Remember 2 years ago, when Omaha got 8" on a random snow band that hovered over them? This is what I mean. Do I think we'll get anything like that? Nope. Neither does LNK_Wx. But we don't come here to be pessimistic, we come here because the potential for snow is there, and it's stupid to sit there and complain just to say "I told you so", versus being hopeful that there is something we can track.

I worked that morning not expecting more than a couple of inches and finally left when I realized, CRAP there's a lot more than that and it is still snowing! One of the weirdest sensations I ever had was driving in that snow. The plows hadn't made it out everywhere so I had to guess where the road was as the snow had covered everything in this perfectly even, flat blanket including over the curbs etc, so when you looked out your windshield, it was like one flat white landscape. It almost made you dizzy at times looking at it and just trying to drive straight ahead. You couldn't even see any tire tracks to follow. Made it the 4 or so miles through the unplowed streets, and then promptly got stuck at the beginning of my driveway at my house

[Money]

Not one gfs ensemble member gets north of Chicago

[Madtown]

Mkx has it all figured out....notging to see here folks, man their AFDS have gotten bad.

SHORT TERM... Tonight through Friday...Forecast confidence medium. The low stratus will continue to dissipate late this afternoon north of Milwaukee. Brisk swly winds and warm advection will continue tnt with a weak cold frontal passage to shift the gusty winds to wly on Tue, although sunshine and a drier airmass will make for mild temps. A sfc ridge and cooler temps will then return Tue nt. Middle to high clouds will increase on Wed with slight chances of light snow Wed aft-nt toward central WI as mid level frontogenesis begins. At the sfc, an inverted trough will extend nwd into WI for Thu with low pressure developing along the trough and tracking from MO to Lower MI. The low is not strong but a shortwave passage will occur Fri aft. The inverted trough will advect fairly mild air into srn WI producing a mixture of pcpn with more snow toward central WI and more rain toward IL. Also cannot rule out areas of freezing rain at times but believe icing will remain fairly minimal. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Monday...Forecast confidence medium. A mean longwave upper trough will set up from srn Canada swwd to the 4 Corners region and then gradually shift ewd. Shortwave troughs within this flow may bring light snow at times but only small chances for now. Cold advection will be ongoing with arctic air arriving around Christmas Day.

[gosaints]

Not one gfs ensemble member gets north of Chicago

And all seem to be weakening as they eject...

 

Would limit potential.

 

Still potential for decent event is there

[Money]

And all seem to be weakening as they eject...

Would limit potential.

Still potential for decent event is there

True but too strong of a low and it’s likely to head to far north outside of mn areas

[bud2380]

2 GEFS members show the follow up storm that the CMC is showing. 

[bud2380]

[gosaints]

True but too strong of a low and it’s likely to head to far north outside of mn areas

True that