January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

Some record lows this am...

 

[Tabitha]

The 0z GFS has thousands and thousands of square miles in northern Saskatchewan scheduled to receive 1.00 - 1.75 L.E. over the next 16 days; in the middle of January; while much of the north central States of the US are relatively dry.

 

In fairness, the area is not entirely arid in January (Uranium City averages about 8/10ths of an inch in precip for that month). 

[Iowawx]

Another band of snow is moving through my area now. I had 0.4 inches from first band a few hours ago and this band should get me to at least 0.5 inches for a total from this little weak system. Will measure again at sunrise.

[snowstorm83]

Oh euro you

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2018010300/mc/ecmwf_tsnow_mc_41.png

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow two runs in a row with the second storm looking great. And the first not half bad either.

 

NAVY seems to want to do the same thing as well at the end

 

[dubuque473]

Got a mouse fart of snow last night...

[Tom]

00z Euro still showing 3-5" across N IL for the Sun/Mon system and into N IN.  Some mixing issues are still in the cards.  GFS vs Euro comparison...

 

 

[Tom]

00z EPS snow mean expanded the 2" snow shield south into C IL/IN/OH and across MI.  DVN/MKE/ORD and points east is likely a good area that seems to be in the best chance of seeing snow from this if the Euro/Control are right.

 

From LOT: 

 

 

 

As mentioned above, attention by Sunday turns to the potential
for a day or two period of warmer weather. Once the surface high
talked about above shifts southeast over the Ohio Valley into
Saturday evening, expect the low-level flow to turn southerly with
warmer air expected to inch northward. The models may be
overdoing the quick exit of the arctic airmass, and therefore
could be too warm for temperatures by Sunday. Either way though,
we should be seeing some of a break in the bitter cold conditions.

Unfortunately this warm-up will come with a price, namely
precipitation, possibly in the form of snow, and or a winter mix
depending on how this next storm system evolves. Model/ensemble
guidance is far from having this pinned down, and may not for a
couple more days. This is looking to be a very complex weather
pattern, with a northern stream system expected to transition
eastward across the Upper Great Lakes region on Sunday, while a
southern stream Pacific system shifts over the central and
southern Plains. The extent to which these systems will interact
with one another is still in question. Therefore, confidence is
low at this time on the specifics, including the predominate
P-type over the area. This is certainly a period to keep an eye
on, especially with the model/ensemble trends in the coming days.

[jaster220]

00z Euro still showing 3-5" across N IL for the Sun/Mon system and into N IN.  Some mixing issues are still in the cards.  GFS vs Euro comparison...

 

 

 

00z EPS snow mean expanded the 2" snow shield south into C IL/IN/OH and across MI.  DVN/MKE/ORD and points east is likely a good area that seems to be in the best chance of seeing snow from this if the Euro/Control are right.

 

From LOT: 

 

Nice! Would be great if that Euro verified for you with a nice 4-6" synoptic snowfall. I'm feeling really good about the warm-up being perfectly timed for planned skiing with my teens Sunday. Any snow will be a bonus, and per my local it's in the cards. This icon has rarely made an appearance in my local 5-day this season. Actually, may be the 1st time, at least from this range..

 

[Madtown]

MKX says south is the way to go. Dropped from snow likely to 40% chance of snow showers.

[Tom]

Boy, if you miss out on the snow for the Sun/Mon system, the one on its heels is looking better for a more widespread solution for wintry precip.  A couple weeks ago, when I made the initial call for a large storm system between the 7th-9th, it looked like this would be the one that would share the wealth.  On the contrary, it's looking more like the second of the two "Back 2 Back" storms has the best chance of doing so given the pattern.  All in all, I'm pleased where this pattern is heading because the "Jan 6-8 pull back" is indeed coming and as usually is the case, you get moisture.  It's to bad NE folks will miss this one.  It's nature.  It happens, but those out here will prob benefit from it.  Nobody said its a guarantee your back yard would have snow from this one.  Our sub forum is so large its impossible to pin point these details 2 weeks out but providing a general idea for opportunities is what one should pay attention to from my long range posts.

 

I just felt I needed to clarify some things going forward so there is no confusion from my long range posts.

 

 

Moving along, I'm becoming more inclined to believe the LRC/BSR as a great 2+ week tool at forecasting another "pull back" from the mid month arctic attack.  As has been the case this season, when the pull backs come, they are transient, esp when you park the Polar Vortex nearby, of which, can be easily tapped.  With that being said, I'm more confident now that between the 17th-21st, there is a period where we come back towards seasonal levels, but if there is enough snow OTG, it may not be enough to really torch,esp if Polar Blocking is stronger than being modeled.  Maybe in the Plains???  On the table, but that's just too far out to pin point ATM.

 

CFSv2 Weeklies seeing the pullback, but then comes the cold, and it will come back with vengeance IMO.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

 

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

[Tom]

Getting some nice fluffy "mood" flakes and a light coating of snow.  This stuff is prob 20:1 ratio or higher and the snowflakes are rather translucent....reminds me of LES.

[Tom]

Took a deeper look into the 00z EPS members and they look much better from IA/N MO and points east for the Sun/Mon system.  Hope this is a trend today.  If so, then a thread may be deemed necessary.  I'll be on the road today, so posts won't be coming as much throughout the day.

[Tom]

This has been an unprecedented stretch of cold.  One for the record books here in Chi as its expected that we shall tie the longest stretch of sub 20 degree days.  There's a saying...Good things happen in 3's...

 

 

 

It looks like Saturday will be the 12th consecutive day below 20°. That long of a stretch has happened only twice before in Chicago (winters of 1936 and 1895).

[Clinton]

Great blog this morning from Gary Lezak discussing this weekends system and the likely major winter storm for late next week.  It's a good read and it looks good for a good amount of us to see a nice coating of snow.

 

http://weather2020.com/2018/01/03/using-the-lrc-to-predict-next-weeks-storm-systems/

[Tom]

Its freakin' snowing in the panhandle of FL right now...doh!  

[westMJim]

The overnight snow fall here at my house is now at 4.2” and I now have a total of 13.5” on the ground here. At this time still getting moderate snow falling. And the temperature here is now 11°

[jaster220]

Getting some nice fluffy "mood" flakes and a light coating of snow.  This stuff is prob 20:1 ratio or higher and the snowflakes are rather translucent....reminds me of LES.

 

 Been "cotton balls" falling the last couple hrs here at the lakeshore. I'd say at least 2" since they last shoveled the walks. Like a snow globe tho these photos don't pick up on the snow very well, vis is

 

[jaster220]

Its freakin' snowing in the panhandle of FL right now...doh!  

 

You called it! Historic COLD winter in progress!! 

[Tom]

Great blog this morning from Gary Lezak discussing this weekends system and the likely major winter storm for late next week.  It's a good read and it looks good for a good amount of us to see a nice coating of snow.

 

http://weather2020.com/2018/01/03/using-the-lrc-to-predict-next-weeks-storm-systems/

This was literally on my mind a few minutes ago!  Thanks for posting it Clinton.  I'm more enthusiastic about this system for our sub forum and its nice to see Gary on board.

[Tom]

 Been "cotton balls" falling the last couple hrs here at the lakeshore. I'd say at least 2" since they last shoveled the walks. Like a snow globe tho these photos don't pick up on the snow very well, vis is

 

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That's beautiful my man!  I'm kinda jelly TBH...seeing those mounds of rounded snow on the bushes is what I love about having a deep snow pack.  I hope by this time at the end of next week it looks like that over here!

[Tom]

You called it! Historic COLD winter in progress!! 

Right!  By the time we get through Feb, Decembers lack luster performance (except for MI peeps) will be a distant memory....

[Stacsh]

 Been "cotton balls" falling the last couple hrs here at the lakeshore. I'd say at least 2" since they last shoveled the walks. Like a snow globe tho these photos don't pick up on the snow very well, vis is

 

DSC00030.JPG

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DSC00033.JPG

GRR just mention ratios 40:1 and increase snowfall amount near GRR to 4-5 inches, even though that is what has already fallen.  

[jaster220]

That's beautiful my man!  I'm kinda jelly TBH...seeing those mounds of rounded snow on the bushes is what I love about having a deep snow pack.  I hope by this time at the end of next week it looks like that over here!

 

Me too bud, me too. It will be insane in the WMI belts if the next 10 days play out without a major melt-off, which is looking less likely. 2013-14 depths reached 23-33" from mby (and even a bit east in Albion) to the deepest (Bloomingdale in Van Buren Cnty). Challenging and/or beating those could be the next hot topic for me, tho most likely in the true LES belts than for Marshall proper. WMJim & Stacsh got quite the nice head-start towards that possibility as well. I'm a deep snow pack fanatic. Only thing that maybe I like even better is a true bliz 

[jaster220]

GRR just mention ratios 40:1 and increase snowfall amount near GRR to 4-5 inches, even though that is what has already fallen.  

 

Expecting only a few tenths dusting at home in Marshall. Nonetheless, it'll take my streak to 11 days of measurable snowfall. Can't complain about that 

[jaster220]

Took a deeper look into the 00z EPS members and they look much better from IA/N MO and points east for the Sun/Mon system.  Hope this is a trend today.  If so, then a thread may be deemed necessary.  I'll be on the road today, so posts won't be coming as much throughout the day.

 

BAMwx showed the CANSIPS going forward, and it looked perfect for moisture in the Lakes..

[Stacsh]

Me too bud, me too. It will be insane in the WMI belts if the next 10 days play out without a major melt-off, which is looking less likely. 2013-14 depths reached 23-33" from mby (and even a bit east in Albion) to the deepest (Bloomingdale in Van Buren Cnty). Challenging and/or beating those could be the next hot topic for me, tho most likely in the true LES belts than for Marshall proper. WMJim's got quite the nice head-start towards that possibility as well. I'm a deep snow pack fanatic. Only thing that maybe I like even better is a true bliz 

I'll have to post pictures of the snow depth at my house when I get home from work.

[Niko]

Currently light snow and 0.5" so far. An inch will top it off from today's clipper. Temp is @ 8F. Roads are very slippery from what the news are saying.

[Niko]

Bitter cold air follows this clipper.

[westMJim]

Climatology for today January 3^rd     At Grand Rapids, MI

 

The average H/L is 31/19°

The record high is 59° set in 204 the coldest maximum is 9° set in 1919

The record low is -9° set in 2014 the warmest minimum is 53° set in 1897

The largest snow fall is 9.1” set in 1999

The most on the ground is 14” in 1979

Last year the H/L was 38/33 and there was no snow on the ground.

[Tom]

Arctic front just made its way through the area...flurries are still in the air...on to the next Polar Plunge!

[St Paul Storm]

Tallahassee has measurable snow this morning, Hilton Head SC likely to have its biggest snowfall ever (3.6”), and Blizzard Warnings in Virginia Beach for just the 2nd time in the last 35 years.

 

Sunny and 1F here. Not nearly as exciting.

[jaster220]

@ Stacsh   ^^^ image not viewing?? 

[jaster220]

  ..a slight gradient for this clipper event from mby (

 

[gimmesnow]

Weather Underground and Weather.com are saying 4-8 for me in SE WI Thursday, the 11th. What are they basing this on? I'm supposed to go out of town to Florida on the 10th. Are they just making things up or are we actually going to get something then?

[Niko]

Anyone flying to the EC??!! :lol:

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018010306/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png

[jaster220]

Anyone flying to the EC??!! :lol:

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018010306/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png

 

Thankfully NO!!  SWMI is one of the few places to rival New England's expected haul during the next 72 hrs 

[Minny_Weather]

Yayyyyyy back in the NW flow!

 

Seriously I'd rather be tortured. This IS torture.

[Tom]

12z GFS trending towards the Euro...not shocking...albeit, still low on the snow accumulations...

[Iowawx]

GFS has my area getting freezing rain. Would take that over regular rain. But still hoping for snow event.