January Weather In the PNW

[Karl Bonner]

Only a little over 2 hours until the Stoner Cuz (06z) maybe-possibly-just-hopefully gives us a taste of an arctic blast, or at least wet snow in the hills? 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF ensemble continues the idea of dumping the Siberian ULL into the NW Pacific later in the month which is responsible for pumping up the ridge being shown over the NC Pacific.  It indicates the low will continue to dig off the coast of Asia which would slowly amplify the ridge and push it eastward.  It's also interesting to note that two of the past 4 CFS runs show Arctic air for us in late January.  That is new.

[snow_wizard]

Only a little over 2 hours until the Stoner Cuz (06z) maybe-possibly-just-hopefully gives us a taste of an arctic blast, or at least wet snow in the hills? 

 

I'm thinking at least one of the next 4 GFS runs will give us a tease.

[snow_wizard]

Yes, of course back then they didn't have the green screen behind them he had a 4 sided chalk board with huge piece of chalk. We even had a t.v. caster up here that used chalk and a chalk board with a map on it.

 

Ray Ramsey used chalk.  I clearly remember he would always write in the temps for the BC interior when a cold wave was on the way.  It is incredible to think how far we have come since then.  That having been said it had a certain quaint aspect that is missing from today's media.

[snow_wizard]

Oh yeah I had no idea on that one, I just remember my dad saying that Ray Ramsey would say “snow snifters” a lot.

 

He was one colorful guy!  How could anyone ever forget snow snifters?  I think I remember he wore "test pattern" suits also.

[Geos]

We have about 13-14 inches, the winter sports club on the other side of town reports 15 inches.  Not a huge amount, but it is a solid base, since that is based on about 25 inches or so.  I have lived here since 2013, and last winter at one point we had very close to a 36 inch base on the ground.  At that time it had probably snowed close to 90 inches overall (we ended up with about 109 inches), but with compacting, evaporation, melting, etc., it was at 36 inches, but a very solid 36 inches that you could walk on and not sink in that much.   I know other winters they have had far more, and some far less.

 

That's a nice amount to have on the ground. That's about the most I've ever seen on the ground myself back in the Midwest. I know it gets to be a bit much to shovel/snowblow over the 2' mark.

When does Leavenworth usually get its first snowfall that stays around? Thanksgiving...

Do you usually have a snow cover all winter?

[Eastvanisle]

Did anyone growing up have a cable community channel with weather instruments and would sneak into the living room at night to watch them during a snow or cold weather event. Ours did up in Vancouver B.C. back in the late 60's early 70's they were the dial type. Then about the mid 70's they changed to a digital board read out that was cool. 

Ya, I remember those. It was on channel 10 in victoria in the 70s

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I think this will be a classic Oregon windstorm/Washington snowstorm event. I'd love that ridge to amplify at the perfect time to then drop that low back down the coast and come inland around Port Orford or so.

[Karl Bonner]

This is waaay too early to speculate...but wouldn't it be wild if for once, the coldest airmass of the season came after March 1? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is waaay too early to speculate...but wouldn't it be wild if for once, the coldest airmass of the season came after March 1?

Some sloppy snow that melts by noon? No thanks.

[BLI snowman]

This is waaay too early to speculate...but wouldn't it be wild if for once, the coldest airmass of the season came after March 1? 

 

Happened in 1906!

[BLI snowman]

Here's a cool January 1996 video, part of a segment from KATU that I saw posted on Youtube covering the cold/snow portion of that winter. Fun times!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZKeC9tfaRo&t=895s

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Op trending toward the more southern track the EURO/UKMET shows. The low is much further southeast than previous 4-5 runs.

 

I created an Animated GIF of the past 6 GFS Op runs showing a clear southward trend with that low. This also may pull colder air into southern BC for a snowy surprise for those folks maybe down into northern Washington.
https://imgur.com/iuRQ16g

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge over us is much, much stronger on 6z Op Days 5-9. I don't like that, but whatever.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z is a good run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Meh. Still no action down here on the GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meh. Still no action down here on the GFS.

 

Each run is a small step in the right direction.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles are pretty much the same. Relatively meh....

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

That's a nice amount to have on the ground. That's about the most I've ever seen on the ground myself back in the Midwest. I know it gets to be a bit much to shovel/snowblow over the 2' mark.

When does Leavenworth usually get its first snowfall that stays around? Thanksgiving...

Do you usually have a snow cover all winter?

Often we get snow in November that does not last. The first "permanent" snow can be anywhere between mid November to mid December. It was late this year, with snow in early December that lasted for two weeks and was just about gone until December 19th, but the average date of the first permanent snow is early December. And after that we have snow on the ground until March. We average 94 inches. There are exceptions, like 2013-2014, where we only had a bit of snow on the ground until mid Winter, but that is rare.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Often we get snow in November that does not last. The first "permanent" snow can be anywhere between mid November to mid December. It was late this year, with snow in early December that lasted for two weeks and was just about gone until December 19th, but the average date of the first permanent snow is early December. And after that we have snow on the ground until March. We average 94 inches. There are exceptions, like 2013-2014, where we only had a bit of snow on the ground until mid Winter, but that is rare.

 

I was in Leavenworth around December 20, 2011 and there wasn't much snow, but I think it had been on the ground since late November. The town was definitely stuck in an icy inversion when I was there. Temps stayed in the mid/upper-20s the whole 3 days I was there with dense fog. 

[westcoastexpat]

Anyone else here going to AMS in Austin? I'm flying out tonight. Would be neat to meet up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z runs about to initialize. Time to keep that forward momentum going!

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z runs about to initialize. Time to keep that forward momentum going!

I am sure the low will settle into a more northly track as things get closer. Pretty routine outcome with this setup.

[TT-SEA]

12z runs about to initialize. Time to keep that forward momentum going!

Nice ridge next weekend on the 12Z GFS.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This will be wonderful to get daffodils and roses started early. Another typica January is on track! I am so glad the east coast is making up for the past 20 years of lackluster winters this year. It would have been tragic to see them get left out again.

[Deweydog]

Upper levels are cooling on #MLK.

 

#verification!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Nice ridge next weekend on the 12Z GFS.

it is a relief to finally have that ridge sitting directly over us. Such a relief as it has been a really long time!!. I am sure someone has some Stats on ridge placement because having it form and stay right over us like that has to a once in a 100 year event or longer. Exciting!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS looks like it is prolonging the cold in the upper midwest and delaying our pattern change a bit.

[HighlandExperience]

it is a relief to finally have that ridge sitting directly over us. Such a relief as it has been a really long time!!. I am sure someone has some Stats on ridge placement because having it form and stay right over us like that has to a once in a 100 year event or longer. Exciting!

Haven’t we had this problem quite a bit in recent winters? I guess it’s a risk we take with lots of blocking

[TT-SEA]

Upper levels are cooling on #MLK.

 

#verification!

 

 

Indeed... flash freeze?   There is some frigid air just off the coast of Oregon that afternoon! 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Haven’t we had this problem quite a bit in recent winters? I guess it’s a risk we take with lots of blocking

It was Sarcasm... yes been a problem for many years off and on.

[TT-SEA]

For those keeping score... the 12Z GEM agrees on the ridge for next weekend.

 

[MossMan]

Sure wish the rain would stop for at least 10min at some point this weekend...

[Deweydog]

For those keeping score... the 12Z GEM agrees on the ridge for next weekend.

 

This post just prompted Bryant to rip off another one of his toe nails.

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS looks like it is prolonging the cold in the upper midwest and delaying our pattern change a bit.

 

 

Example of GFS slowly backing off... 

 

Here is the 12Z GFS from yesterday morning for at day 12:

 

 

 

 

And here is the new 12Z GFS on the same day:

 

[Farmboy]

For those keeping score... the 12Z GEM agrees on the ridge for next weekend.

 

You forgot to add the smiley face after your sentence.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Example of GFS slowly backing off...

 

Here is the 12Z GFS from yesterday morning for at day 11:

 

 

 

 

And here is the new 12Z GFS on the same day:

 

You can count on that outcome about 90% of the time... typical...

[HighlandExperience]

Indeed... flash freeze? There is some frigid air just off the coast of Oregon that afternoon!

 

Colder than mars in Texas

[TT-SEA]

If you extrapolate the 12Z GFS beyond 17 days and then re-configure the pattern in your mind to something better... you could imagine a major arctic blast.   <_>

 

[liquidsnow]

We definitely need another ridge. Hopefully we get a dirty ridge so we can get some 48 degree drizzle.

 

I think I saw a Cherry Blossom bud yesterday.