Geos Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Same with up near my cabin, I have seen it snow at 2000ft in the area with a 4k snow level. Impossible to predict the area with much detail. Wow, talk about a huge margin of error! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Eastern slopes look to cash in pretty good late week. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/washington/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180112-1200z.html Looking forward to it. Places to my west, like Lake Wenatchee and Plain, will get even more than me. There is also a place called Holden Village that you access by taking the ferry on Lake Chelan and then a bus to the village, they might get 2 feet of snow. One of these winters we will go there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Looking forward to it. Places to my west, like Lake Wenatchee and Plain, will get even more than me. There is also a place called Holden Village that you access by taking the ferry on Lake Chelan and then a bus to the village, they might get 2 feet of snow. One of these winters we will go there. Yeah easy to tell those areas get a little more moisture. Been to Lake Chelan twice and read about the history of the lake. Plan on visiting Chelan this winter still.Better map yet: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/chelan/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180112-1200z.html Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Yeah easy to tell those areas get a little more moisture. Been to Lake Chelan twice and read about the history of the lake. Plan on visiting Chelan this winter still.Better map yet: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/chelan/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180112-1200z.html3rd deepest lake in us and #28 in world. Pretty cool. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Yeah easy to tell those areas get a little more moisture. Been to Lake Chelan twice and read about the history of the lake. Plan on visiting Chelan this winter still.Better map yet: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/chelan/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180112-1200z.htmlIt's nice that this will pinpoint your location. Last night it showed over 2 inches of precip as snow for my location, but I never believed that. That would challenge some all time records, think this is a bit more realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Toasty 72 here in Austin TxWorking outside at my Mother in laws place.Just doesn’t feel right Jim 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Toasty 72 here in Austin TxWorking outside at my Mother in laws place.Just doesn’t feel right JimOur temperature is up into the 40s today, and it literally feels like a heatwave compared to last weekend. I’d be perfectly happy with the cold staying out west for another month or even longer. A few paste bombs and subfreezing days in February would satisfy me. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 18z!!!!! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 First 7 days of the Drunk Uncle are sober Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 If we don’t move into a consistent -PDO/-PNA this spring/summer with the oncoming -QBO, then it might be possible to conclude that we’ve entered into a somewhat longer term +PDO/+PNA system state, and that the ongoing Niña is destructively interfering with it in the shorter term. Or, another intriguing possibility is that the PDO/PNA system has (once again) gone dormant. After all, the PDO/PNA system has only been “active” since the mid/late 19th century. Before that, there was no consistent mode of variability there from ~1300 - ~1840, irrespective of ENSO/etc. It was in a very deep negative state before that, from ~ 900-1300. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 If we don’t move into a consistent -PDO/-PNA this spring/summer with the oncoming -QBO, then it might be possible to conclude that we’ve entered into a somewhat longer term +PDO/+PNA system state, and that the ongoing Niña is destructively interfering with it in the shorter term. Or, another intriguing possibility is that the PDO/PNA system has (once again) gone dormant. After all, the PDO/PNA system has only been “active” since the mid/late 19th century. Before that, there was no consistent mode of variability there from ~1300 - ~1840, irrespective of ENSO/etc. It was in a very deep negative state before that, from ~ 900-1300.Scary stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
χιόνι (chióni) Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Toasty 72 here in Austin TxWorking outside at my Mother in laws place.Just doesn’t feel rightJim64 here in college station I will be in Austin on Thursday morning 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 #528@240! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Ton's of mountain snow coming on the 18z. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Stoned uncle looking better! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 If we don’t move into a consistent -PDO/-PNA this spring/summer with the oncoming -QBO, then it might be possible to conclude that we’ve entered into a somewhat longer term +PDO/+PNA system state, and that the ongoing Niña is destructively interfering with it in the shorter term. Or, another intriguing possibility is that the PDO/PNA system has (once again) gone dormant. After all, the PDO/PNA system has only been “active” since the mid/late 19th century. Before that, there was no consistent mode of variability there from ~1300 - ~1840, irrespective of ENSO/etc. It was in a very deep negative state before that, from ~ 900-1300.So what implications does that have for us in the PNW in the coming decades if this assertion is correct? 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Snow at my location at hr 264! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Tidbits' 2m temp slides are slow AF compared to the MSLP/precip Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Tidbits' 2m temp slides are slow AF compared to the MSLP/precip I have seen all sorts of issues with speed on Tropical Tidbits while loading maps. Never happens on my phone. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 So what implications does that have for us in the PNW in the coming decades if this assertion is correct?Pretty sure you can draw your own conclusions. Even less snow than you already get would be one... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 So what implications does that have for us in the PNW in the coming decades if this assertion is correct?I’ll probably be moving for starters. Call me a climate refugee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 So what implications does that have for us in the PNW in the coming decades if this assertion is correct?Depends which one (if either) is correct. The first one would make long range forecasting easier, though it wouldn’t be well-received on this forum. The second one would be a forecasting nightmare and could produce a number of outcomes, from cold/dry to warm/dry to warm/wet to cold/wet, to a combination of these with no tendency or bias towards any in the long run. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Depends which one (if either) is correct. The first one would make long range forecasting easier. The second one would be a nightmare in that regard.Are you just sitting around trying to dream up nightmare scenarios for us lately? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 So what implications does that have for us in the PNW in the coming decades if this assertion is correct?We'll have winters and summers. Some cold, some warm, some just right! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Stoned uncle looking better!JUST 10 DAYS AWAY! OH MY GOD! (Head explodes).http://www.cool-smileys.com/images/288.gif All right everybody rinse and spit! Just kidding! Hopefully we can get some decent gusts out of the Thursday system. There is 0.83 of rain since yesterday afternoon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Snow at my location at hr 264!Unfortunately it's at 1500'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Are you just sitting around trying to dream up nightmare scenarios for us lately?The PNA/PDO system was dormant during the LIA..that doesn’t mean the same thing as a protracted positive phase. I don’t know what will happen, but we’re obviously not in a -PDO/-PNA background state right now, despite a very healthy La Niña. And before you ask, no, it’s not because of global warming..the system does this stuff all the time, for reasons mostly unknown. Heck, it might be a good thing. The MWP was actually dominated by -PNA/-PDO. Perhaps that’s *not* where we want the system state, long term. There’s a theory out there that the deep -PDO/-PNA from the 1950s-1970s (strongest -PNA/-PDO since the MWP) actually preconditioned the system for the 1970s climate shift to +PDO/+PNA/+NAO, almost like the backswing of a pendulum. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Again, I don’t have the answers. I’m just throwing some ideas out in the open for debate. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Unfortunately it's at 1500'.It shows a pretty blue color right over our houses! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 It shows a pretty blue color right over our houses! The GFS surface maps are very optimistic about the colors it uses for precipitation... particularly on the west side of the mountains. It appears to use the same parameters that typically mean snow in the Midwest and NE and that does not usually work here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 You know...The GFS kinda starts getting good...Then it all goes to hell. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 You know...The GFS kinda starts getting good...Then it all goes to hell.Perma +PNA already taking hold. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Randy... payback time today for the c-zone which has been parked over the I-90 corridor all day while its dry up there. But I guess its better now than on the weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 The GFS surface maps are very optimistic about the colors it uses for precipitation... particularly on the west side of the mountains. It appears to use the same parameters that typically mean snow in the Midwest and NE and that does not usually work here. And hour 264 is much lower resolution, so the grid areas are that much bigger, meaning areas that might actually get snow are lumped in with areas that will get rain, but the grid has to choose one precip type for that really large area (the lower the resolution, the larger the size of one section of the grid), and it makes it look like the whole area gets snow (or rain), when really only parts do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 It would be nice to be able to come in here and not read a post where people are attacking other people. Odd timing. I didn't see any of that going on this morning. Especially compared to some recent days. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Randy... payback time today for the c-zone which has been parked over the I-90 corridor all day while its dry up there. But I guess its better now than on the weekend.Yeah I’m currently looking out at sunshine from my office window! I had a bonus day off yesterday and it was dry so that was nice!And it looks to be just plain old rain at Snoqualmie currently. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 You know...The GFS kinda starts getting good...Then it all goes to hell. I'm paying more attention to this, which is improving. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Random weather/climate stat (Graph by Dr. Klotzbach). December 2017 featured the second highest Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) on record. The AMM is defined by the contrast between SSTAs between the NATL and SATL. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I would take his input over yours any day of the week.That's not saying much about you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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