Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 3/4. He started out as Snow.I take great pride in the fact that I'm still referred to by my past name, unlike many of the other members who've changed names over the years. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Yeah, but I recall that stuff being downplayed in favor of the as yet unmodeled early January promised land.At this point I think some of us won't be shocked if the promised land isn't reached until 18-19. 10 year anniversary of the last great one so why not? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I take great pride in the fact that I'm still referred to by my past name, unlike many of the other members who've changed names over the years.To me his name has always been: “This post is hidden because you have chosen to ignore posts by ____” 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 7 of the GFS ensemble members have a cold snap after day 10. However, the majority do not. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png?hc_location=ufi Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 If this February turns out cold and snowy in the West, 1989-90 will be the clear Analog Champion of 2017-18. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 To me his name has always been: “This post is hidden because you have chosen to ignore posts by ____” I lack the desire or willpower to hide anyone's posts. I'd still want to peek every time. Strange, I know, since I possess the incredible willpower to not look at the GFS past day 10 (as Dewey will remind you). Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I can totally see this winter not having any significant cold and/or snow events for the remainder and it's probably more likely it will play out like that. Enjoy the 40F rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I can totally see this winter not having any significant cold and/or snow events for the remainder and it's probably more likely it will play out like that. Enjoy the 40F rain. Uh... http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1652-hard-evidence-for-a-cold-pnw-wintermy-nps-index/ Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Uh... http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1652-hard-evidence-for-a-cold-pnw-wintermy-nps-index/ All the analogs and analysis won't bring cold and snow no matter how much they line up. This is the PNW we're talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 All the analogs and analysis won't bring cold and snow no matter how much they line up. This is the PNW we're talking about. Great point. Could probably use a little more hard evidence, though. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I lack the desire or willpower to hide anyone's posts. I'd still want to peek every time. Strange, I know, since I possess the incredible willpower to not look at the GFS past day 10 (as Dewey will remind you).We all know. It's otay. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I'm happy to report that OLM is in little danger of a top 5 warm January. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 If I remember from this morning, the EPS 15 day wasn't quite as amazing as yesterday's but it was still ok. What are others' thoughts? When the carrots were dangled previously this winter was there ever a signal that strong 15 days out? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I'm happy to report that OLM is in no danger of a top 5 cold January.Don't be TOO hard on yourself. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I called it a decent retrogression signal. This gfs-ens_z500a_namer_35.png to this gfs-ens_z500a_namer_47.png Is a decent signal for that range, especially in lieu of the all-time bad OP.Is it a “signal” if only 6 ensemble members show it? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I am no expert on weather and I'm not trying to target anyone here; but why is it being ignored that the 10-14 day range has been good all winter? Once it gets within day 8 or 9 it falls apart just like the trough next week. Is it really any different this time?Just like how ensemble means will skew towards stability in the long range with higher wavenumbers, when you have a few rogue members that retrograde against streamflow, it will make the entire ensemble mean look that way even if most members don’t actually have a retrogression. It’s not trolling, it’s the law of averages..just from a spatial standpoint. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 If I remember from this morning, the EPS 15 day wasn't quite as amazing as yesterday's but it was still ok. What are others' thoughts? When the carrots were dangled previously this winter was there ever a signal that strong 15 days out?Why do you care what other people's thoughts are? You've discounted every single good model run over the past few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Why do you care what other people's thoughts are? You've discounted every single good model run over the past few days.Reverse jinx Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 It feels a bit chilly out there this evening. #winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Is it a “signal” if only 6 ensemble members show it? Yes. The mean is what it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 It feels a bit chilly out there this evening. #winterYou know It's bad when 43 feels chilly. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 40 degree heavy rain here. #aprilpreview 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Sunday continues to trend drier and warmer in the home stretch. A few days ago the trend was all about jet suppression... now it continues to trend farther north and west with the heavy rain. This is great for the central Cascades. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 It feels a bit chilly out there this evening. #winterIt was chilly today ...we have a nice pineapple express coming up this weekend. Looks to be some good flooding possibilities. It does not get much better than this! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 It was chilly today ...we have a nice pineapple express coming up this weekend. Looks to be some good flooding possibilities. It does not get much better than this! No flooding in our area per the 00Z GFS. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Sunday continues to trend drier and warmer in the home stretch. A few days ago the trend was all about jet suppression... now it continues to trend farther north and west with the heavy rain. This is great for the central Cascades. This is good! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 No flooding in our area per the 00Z GFS. Super I have not looked I have been traveling the last 5 days and have not been tracking much. Looks like the same 10 day BS is in play. Bummer ... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Super I have not looked I have been traveling the last 5 days and have not been tracking much. Looks like the same 10 day BS is in play. Bummer ...We’ve been waiting for winter since December 27th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 You have a long weather forum memory, man.That initial “ice age” thread I made (while high as a teenager) was over six years ago. I think it was back in November 2011. Either way, bringing it up now feels like typical Dewey lawyering. it also drew attention on Robert Filex blog Geos and F Guimaraes who both has posted on his blog many of times I remember got very interested in the conversation in that thread I beleave it was Geos and F Guimaraes that Introduced you to Robert Filex site.I just wonder what ever happened to F Guimaraes haven't seen him post in a few years here or on Roberts site. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 We’ve been waiting for winter since December 27thAnd some of us since Jan of last year. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 It feels a bit chilly out there this evening. #winter Tomorrow will be even cooler. #globalcoolingtrend Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Silly ol' Celine Dion... 576dm over the northern Bering Sea. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest El nina Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just like how ensemble means will skew towards stability in the long range with higher wavenumbers, when you have a few rogue members that retrograde against streamflow, it will make the entire ensemble mean look that way even if most members don’t actually have a retrogression.It’s not trolling, it’s the law of averages..just from a spatial standpoint.So in that range there's always a few really cold members that will change the average? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 0z definitely looking more promising by day 8. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 GEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Looks like the 00z ia gunna get good around day 10 again. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Looks like the 00z ia gunna get good around day 10 again.Again?? You say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Looks like the 00z ia gunna get good around day 10 again.At least 10 days always looks exciting ... makes it feel like winter. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 So in that range there's always a few really cold members that will change the average?Yes. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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