High Desert Mat! Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 0z definitely looking more promising by day 8.Only 192 hours away!! The way this winter has gone I never would've thought it'd gotten that close. Hopefully by the time I get done writing this it has gotten to 189 hours!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Wow, the GEM continues to look really promising for something noteable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 What a clusterfuck... A dirty progressive ridge to our west, a weak block/retrogression to the north of that, a strong block over Barrow and Meryl Streep wearing all black in Los Angeles. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Wow, the GEM continues to look really promising for something noteable.Historic? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 GEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Even with that wild retrogression shown on the 00Z GEM... it still does not really get there for us through 240 hours. The real cold air is still bottled up north of the border. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Looks like the 00z ia gunna get good around day 10 again.I don’t see it. And yeah, I know I’ll be attacked by everyone for this post. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I don’t see it. And yeah, I know I’ll be attacked by everyone for this post.Agreed! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Once again, the GFS is looking for a way to have extreme Alaskan blocking without a Western Arctic outbreak. It's a delicate balance, but one that this winter has managed to pull off time and again. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Nutty block. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just the second time there has been snow in the air this winter. Currently rain/snow mix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Once again, the GFS is looking for a way to have extreme Alaskan blocking without a Western Arctic outbreak. It's a delicate balance, but one that this winter has managed to pull off time and again.I only believe in seasonal pattern repetition when it's repeating patterns we like. We have to SCORE at some point. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Even with that wild retrogression shown on the 00Z GEM... it still does not really get there for us through 240 hours. The real cold air is still bottled up north of the border. That should definitely be the main takeaway at this point. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I only believe in seasonal pattern repetition when it's repeating patterns we like. We have to SCORE at some point. Bring in Walsh! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Nutty block. gem_z500a_namer_36.pngThat is a full latitude bloch. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I only believe in seasonal pattern repetition when it's repeating patterns we like. We have to SCORE at some point. Sure, maybe. But you have to admit that few winters manage to pull off this much blocking without notable cold in the PNW. It's been borderline remarkable to this point, and if this coming pattern doesn't pull it off, maybe unprecedented. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I only believe in seasonal pattern repetition when it's repeating patterns we like. We have to SCORE at some point.We will...next winter. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 That should definitely be the main takeaway at this point. Yes. Or should we extrapolate the GEM beyond 240 hours? Because even the GEM does not get us there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Yes. Or should we extrapolate the GEM beyond 240 hours? Because even the GEM does not get us there. It's by far the most promising run within 10 days to this point. Looking at the overall pattern...the details like will the Arctic front get hung up at the border or not are pretty much meaningless. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Sure, maybe. But you have to admit that few winters manage to pull off this much blocking without notable cold in the PNW. It's been borderline remarkable to this point, and if this coming pattern doesn't pull it off, maybe unprecedented.Eh, we've yet to see an evolution this winter which smelled all that tasty from a teleconnection standpoint. I'm sure you'll find some vague anomaly map to counter this but the reality has been there has been a significant disconnect between what has been high latitude blocking and an insistence on keeping a mainly progressive wavetrain in the mid latitudes since the big -PNA ridge broke down in mid December. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 It's by far the most promising run within 10 days to this point. Looking at the overall pattern...the details like will the Arctic front get hung up at the border or not are pretty much meaningless.He knows this. He does this everytime there is a decent run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 It's by far the most promising run within 10 days to this point. Looking at the overall pattern...the details like will the Arctic front get hung up at the border or not are pretty much meaningless.It doesn't have a passport and when it gets one it will realize it prefers the beauty of the Great Plains. This will happen...absolutely. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 This 00z GFS run is so weird looking, it has to have a SSW event or something weird aloft with the waves. Oh, and the GGEM overdoes retrogressions, so perhaps nothing Earth shattering in regards to that. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 It's by far the most promising run within 10 days to this point. Looking at the overall pattern...the details like will the Arctic front get hung up at the border or not are pretty much meaningless. I think the GEM is probably pretty meaningless in general. But who knows? I will wait until the ECMWF and EPS come aboard. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Yes. Or should we extrapolate the GEM beyond 240 hours? Because even the GEM does not get us there. In my mind, that shortwave dropping into the Yukon at hour 240 explodes into the existing omega block and drops to 499dm. Sub 480dm thicknesses into Deer Park. The moisture-laden Arctic front stalls on a line from Wilsonville to McMinnville. Thank you, mind. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 He knows this. He does this everytime there is a decent run. Incorrect Bryant... as usual. I often post decent run maps. All the time in fact. And lots of snowfall maps from WeatherBell. So petty. And bitter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 In my mind, that shortwave dropping into the Yukon at hour 240 explodes into the existing omega block and drops to 499dm. Sub 480dm into Deer Park. The moisture-laden Arctic front stalls on a line from Wilsonville to McMinnville.Thank you, mind.You only have to wait 1 more year for that. January 25th 2019. I was there. Tim was in hawaii. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Eh, we've yet to see an evolution this winter which smelled all that tasty from a teleconnection standpoint. I'm sure you'll find some vague anomaly map to counter this but the reality has been there has been a significant disconnect between what has been high latitude blocking and an insistence on keeping a mainly progressive wavetrain in the mid latitudes since the big -PNA ridge broke down in mid December. I'd have to look closer again, but I don't think there have been hardly any winters with this much -EPO and so little meaningful cold in the PNW. Obviously, the lack of -PNA has been the big killer, but it's still very unusual to have the amount of Alaskan blocking we've seen without that. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I'd have to look closer again, but I don't think there have been hardly any winters with this much -EPO and so little meaningful cold in the PNW. Obviously, the lack of -PNA has been the big killer, but it's still very unusual to have the amount of Alaskan blocking we've seen without that.Weird year. Obviously when the sharpest mind on the forum busts this badly for the coldest month of the cold season you know something is SERIOUSLY f*cked up. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Talk about high drama with the models right now. Oh the suspense! I think we have a realistic shot at a good outcome. Hopefully a clearer picture will emerge over the next couple of days. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Talk about high drama with the models right now. Oh the suspense! I think we have a realistic shot at a good outcome. Hopefully a clearer picture will emerge over the next couple of days. It certainly has that "ripe with potential" feeling right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Talk about high drama with the models right now. Oh the suspense! I think we have a realistic shot at a good outcome. Hopefully a clearer picture will emerge over the next couple of days.The drama on the forum overshadows any drama in the models. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 The drama on the forum overshadows any drama in the models. True dat! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Incorrect Bryant... as usual. I often post decent run maps. All the time in fact. And lots of snowfall maps from WeatherBell. So petty. And bitter.You post whatever fits your narrative, because "I'm better than everyone else" Tim is never wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Tim is the DEVIL. Tim and foosball. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 According to the Weatherbell site the ECMWF had the WPO dropping to -5 next week on it's 12z run today. Forecasts for PNA and EPO have turned negative on both the GFS and ECMWF on recent runs. On paper that should equate to a good cold snap. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 According to the Weatherbell site the ECMWF had the WPO dropping to -5 next week on it's 12z run today. Forecasts for PNA and EPO have turned negative on both the GFS and ECMWF on recent runs. On paper that should equate to a good cold snap.Do we really care about what is on paper or in our backyards? Now I am confused on what we are supposed to want... this is all so hard... weird year... MJO Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 In my mind, that shortwave dropping into the Yukon at hour 240 explodes into the existing omega block and drops to 499dm. Sub 480dm thicknesses into Deer Park. The moisture-laden Arctic front stalls on a line from Wilsonville to McMinnville. Thank you, mind.Lol. I love you guys (and girls) Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I think the GEM is probably pretty meaningless in general. But who knows? I will wait until the ECMWF and EPS come aboard. This coming from the guy who has preached "PAY ATTENTION to the GEM when it's the first to show something!" 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Do we really care about what is on paper or in our backyards? Now I am confused on what we are supposed to want... this is all so hard... weird year.You're a big boy, you can determine what you want and don't want. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 You post whatever fits your narrative, because "I'm better than everyone else" Tim is never wrong Well... everyone sort of posts based on a narrative that interests them. For example... I don't see Jesse posting warm anomaly maps. Jim does not post warm anomaly maps. It does not interest them. That is fine. I certainly post interesting things both warm and cold. I post endless snowfall maps that show lowland snow. I posted maps just this week showing a trend towards retrogression and cold from EPS. I was mocked by Phil for saying the ECMWF looked like it was heading toward full on retrogression at the end of the run. Which narrative is that? The one that might lead to an arctic blast here? You cherry pick. Its BS. You are pretty much the only person on this board launching genuine personal attacks on a daily basis. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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