February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[jaya]

Jaya are your thoughts still the same for tonight and tomorrow?

I am not at work, so don't see as much info (tropical tidbits is all I have seen so far).  My last night numbers may be a tad high, but I'm still on board with the general thoughts. The details really won't be seen until things are actually happening. 

[Perturbed Member]

18z ICON

[Phil]

This is looking like the second winter in a row where SEA and PDX could handily beat DCA for snowfall. Always nice to see.

Funny you mention that, because we’re actually getting pasted right now. It’s the chowder variety stuff here though, so I’m not sure if it’s even sticking in DC.

 

And I don’t want to jinx it, but I’m feeling an 8-12” paste bomb sometime in early/mid March. Would fit Niña climo like a glove. Hell, I’ll take anything to ease the transition into swamp season.

[Blizzard777]

Oh good heavens, sunny as far as I can see here now

[jaya]

I really like the consistency of ICON.  It will be interesting to see if it works out. 

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

ICON, NAVGEM and ECMWF all have a pretty similar track for the Wednesday low, they keep things quite a bit further west and over the water. This is what we need to win.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is in contrast to the GFS and GEM that have a weaker low that is further east. Hopefully team EURO wins this.

Looking excellent!

[FroYoBro]

I really like the consistency of ICON.  It will be interesting to see if it works out. 

I like snow too. 

[jaya]

I really like the consistency of ICON.  It will be interesting to see if it works out. 

I tried pasting an animated gif I created but could not get it to post.  It is created by going to tropical tidbits and the NW region for the ICON model. Go to 00Z Mon for the Snow total graphic. Create a trend GIF for the last 12 runs at that time.  Look at the consistency. You won't find that with the other models. Now it may be consistently wrong, but so far I've seen some potential for this model.  Meso models are really meant for convection and seem to over mix things. The UW WRF has some other issues. 

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18z ICON

The ICON has been consistent in showing big snow accumulations eastern PDX metro. Now it's moving more snow west. Everything is trending positively now. If everything goes well this coming week there could be some huge snowfall accumulations in and around PDX Metro.

[Jesse]

DPs dropping here and the wind switches from SSW to WSW. Sitting at 52 currently which is the warmest it has been in over a week. Some showers seem to be banding up to the NW.

[Jesse]

There is also an impressively long line of moderate to heavy showers draped over the SE part of the metro area right now.

[Deweydog]

I like snow too.

Me too!

 

Wanna hang out?

[HighlandExperience]

I tried pasting an animated gif I created but could not get it to post. It is created by going to tropical tidbits and the NW region for the ICON model. Go to 00Z Mon for the Snow total graphic. Create a trend GIF for the last 12 runs at that time. Look at the consistency. You won't find that with the other models. Now it may be consistently wrong, but so far I've seen some potential for this model. Meso models are really meant for convection and seem to over mix things. The UW WRF has some other issues.

Thanks for all your input. Hope the ICON is right!

[Gradient Keeper]

I sure hope Tim(and his flowers) are okay

 

North Bend [King Co, WA] PUBLIC reports NON-TSTM WND DMG at 12:45 PM PST -- REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN NORTH BEND ON CEDAR FALLS ROAD AND RIBARY WAY. REPORTS OBTAINED THRU TWITTER.

[Blizzard777]

Dry slot....Tim Paradise currently

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Would be cool to have a big snow event when I am in dc in a couple weeks!

 

43 with moderate rain when I left the house an hour ago.

 

Probably a midnight high tomorrow.

[Winterdog]

Down to 40F and very wet here

edit: 1.12" in the gauge since midnight.

[Perturbed Member]

The ICON has been consistent in showing big snow accumulations eastern PDX metro. Now it's moving more snow west. Everything is trending positively now. If everything goes well this coming week there could be some huge snowfall accumulations in and around PDX Metro.

 

Tomorrow and the coming week will be a pretty good test to see if the ICON is the real deal.

[dairyd]

He was talking about the BC interior. Single digits would basically be unheard of for the I-5 corridor this late in the season, even if the cold air were moving in straight from the NE.

I was skeptical of the GFS cold outbreak as well but have been following Yukon temps and it is verifying and you can see the front marching south into central BC at the moment on satt.  I think it is going to be colder than most expect unless the slider pulls the jet further east, but it appears the arctic front has already pulled west of the rockies in BC so we don't have that protection anymore. 

 

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/cn/Temperature.html

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gfs_amer_12/TT_TT_PN_012_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gfs_amer_12/TT_TT_PN_048_0000.gif

[Deweydog]

61 at The Dalles but the windchill is probably like 40.

[MossMan]

Just hit 39...hopefully I won’t see those pesky 40’s again for quite a while!!!

[weatherfan2012]

Funny you mention that, because we’re actually getting pasted right now. It’s the chowder variety stuff here though, so I’m not sure if it’s even sticking in DC.

And I don’t want to jinx it, but I’m feeling an 8-12” paste bomb sometime in early/mid March. Would fit Niña climo like a glove. Hell, I’ll take anything to ease the transition into swamp season.

70s to snow can't write a better scripture then that in a La nina

[MossMan]

Big time NW wind now!

[FroYoBro]

There is beautiful blue sky above me and it is currently 54 degrees. 

 

WHERE IS LA NINA? 

[Jesse]

61 at The Dalles but the windchill is probably like 40.

Downsloping and higher sun angles is magik.

 

They should definitely see quite the swing over the next 24-48 hours.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Temp holding steady in the swamp at 45... I think I may have maxed out today temp wise. Feel it is all down hill from here (in a good way!)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not a good day to smoke outside.

[Deweydog]

Downsloping and higher sun angles is magik.

 

They should definitely see quite the swing over the next 24-48 hours.

Could lose close to a degree an hour for the next 30 or so.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Be a good day to go for a walk at camp Muir.  Gusting to 124mph.

[Perturbed Member]

18z ICON has shifted the Wednesday low a bit further west. This low has also never appeared as strong on the ICON as it has on the ECMWF. Looks like the precip pretty much misses everyone on this run.

 

[Deweydog]

Not a good day to smoke outside.

Looks like I picked the wrong day to quit amphetamines.

[Jesse]

Two steps back today for monthly cold anomaly enthusiasts, ICON bailing on us, sunbreaks and a pretty pathetic front so far. Frustrating afternoon out there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like I picked the wrong day to quit amphetamines.

Why quit?

[snow_wizard]

Hi-res 3km NAM looks very anemic for pretty much everyone between BLI and OLM, unfortunately. Shows very little snow for most places within 20 mi of the water. Can't imagine that scenario actually happening.

 

We see it nearly every time with these situations.  Going by past experience is best.

[Phil]

Both coasts get to score simultaneously, lol. When was the last time that happened? (Hope this isn’t too OT).

 

Just a taste of the bliss that awaits you guys.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Two steps back today for monthly cold anomaly enthusiasts, ICON bailing on us, sunbreaks and a pretty pathetic front so far. Frustrating afternoon out there.

 

I sure don't see this.

[HighlandExperience]

18z ICON has shifted the Wednesday low a bit further west. This low has also never appeared as strong on the ICON as it has on the ECMWF. Looks like the precip pretty much misses everyone on this run.

 

What a waste of cold

[Jesse]

I sure don't see this.

PDX spiking to 55 has been pretty heartbreaking. They might even tack on a few more degrees...

[snow_wizard]

Winds have already shifted north almost down to the border.  This storm is very dynamic with some crazy winds being reported from various directions in many locations.  No reason to be disappointed about anything at this point IMO.

[Deweydog]

Two steps back today for monthly cold anomaly enthusiasts, ICON bailing on us, sunbreaks and a pretty pathetic front so far. Frustrating afternoon out there.

Don't stand by idle and let it happen. Resist! Air your frustrations on social media!!!