Tabitha Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 I guess we gotta lower our standards again lol. If we end up with 4 to 6 ill be happy. Anything to be over last years total. You keep missing the point; when a storm goes from 20 inches to 15 inches to 10 inches to 5 inches with 48 hours to go; like a free falling object; there is no leveling off; the decline will continue until what is left of it arrives. For example, Chicago....they are 12 hours behind the Great Plains for storm arrival; so the models have not picked up the diminution there yet. It will snow more in Chicago than Nebraska; but I doubt O'Hare measures more than half a foot total / 6 inches before it all dries out. A good snowstorm for the Windy City; but nothing historic or epic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 and Milwaukee hoists a Wsw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Again you cannot get a major snowstorm ANYWHERE unless their is a major convulsion / perturbation in the atmosphere all the way up to 500 mb. This means a negatively tilted trough; and a huge surge northward of (usually Gulf) moisture. While the flow is not completely flat; it is a long way from the deep trough associated with big snow events. You would be seeing thunderstorms over Kentucky and Tennessee (forecast to develop) if the proper ingredients were in place; with temps in the 60's there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Here's LOT's current thinking thru 6pm Friday. 2 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Again you cannot get a major snowstorm ANYWHERE unless their is a major convulsion / perturbation in the atmosphere all the way up to 500 mb. This means a negatively tilted trough; and a huge surge northward of (usually Gulf) moisture. You would be seeing thunderstorms over Kentucky and Tennessee if the proper ingredients were in place; with temps in the 60's there.Not true. Dec 31st - Jan 2nd 2014 is a pretty good analog for this storm where ORD managed to score on a major multi-day snowstorm (17") and that system did not have any of the above you mention. This is a pretty similar situation we are about to experience but maybe not to the extent of that year's storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Skilling:An average of the top snowfall forecasts by a suite of NWS models 27709387_10156001839736760_1532393932243962529_o.jpg Whoever drew that map should be decommissioned... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 12z EPS/Control.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Not true. Dec 31st - Jan 2nd 2014 is a pretty good analog for this storm where ORD managed to score on a major multi-day snowstorm (17") and that system did not have any of the above you mention. This is a pretty similar situation we are about to experience but maybe not to the extent of that year's storm. I will not debate with you the fact that ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. However, as in politics, when you get into weather, you play the odds. Could Chicago score a great snow with this coming storm? Absolutely. But likewise; the chances the other way...predicated on climatology & specifics of this event lean towards my take on the matter more than the one reflected by the US Global Forecast Model (GFS). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 doesn't match up with mke all that well..lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Skilling:An average of the top snowfall forecasts by a suite of NWS models 27709387_10156001839736760_1532393932243962529_o.jpgWhat the world is this??? A snow weenies dream? Why even put that out to the public. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Whoever drew that map should be decommissioned...Here is the median average if it helps you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Here is the median average if it helps you. 2918.pngAhh no I get it. We were posting something from the 98th percentile? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Ahh no I get it. We were posting something from the 98th percentile?Agree it can be misleading, especially to the general public. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 I will not debate with you the fact that ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. However, as in politics, when you get into weather, you play the odds. Could Chicago score a great snow with this coming storm? Absolutely. But likewise; the chances the other way...predicated on climatology & specifics of this event lean towards my take on the matter more than the one reflected by the US Global Forecast Model (GFS).You just mentioned Chicago would be lucky to get 6in out of this and now you are saying they can score BIG. It's either they will or they won't. Plus, plus most modeling has over 1" liquid qpf unless you take in the drier Euro run. Can they be wrong, sure can but the consistency has been there from run to run. I guess you can argue that the METS at LOT should not have issued a watch based on your assumptions but then you can argue that they have done their due diligence with the information at hand. I guess in the end we will see what transpires. Good luck to all of us cause I guess we are going to need it! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Not sure this was posted but here is the 12z gem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Again you cannot get a major snowstorm ANYWHERE unless their is a major convulsion / perturbation in the atmosphere all the way up to 500 mb. This means a negatively tilted trough; and a huge surge northward of (usually Gulf) moisture. While the flow is not completely flat; it is a long way from the deep trough associated with big snow events. You would be seeing thunderstorms over Kentucky and Tennessee (forecast to develop) if the proper ingredients were in place; with temps in the 60's there.This is a different type of snow system mostly fueled from lift along an east west baroclinic zone as weak waves travel along it. In this particular case, I don't think a big negatively tilted trough is necessary, especially in areas that score from both events. This area is most likely to set up somewhere in IL. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 You just mentioned Chicago would be lucky to get 6in out of this and now you are saying they can score BIG. It's either they will or they won't. Plus, plus most modeling has over 1" liquid qpf unless you take in the drier Euro run. Can they be wrong, sure can but the consistency has been there from run to run. I guess you can argue that the METS at LOT should not have issued a watch based on your assumptions but then you can argue that they have done their due diligence with the information at hand. I guess in the end we will see what transpires. Good luck to all of us cause I guess we are going to need it! I wrote that anything is possible. That is not having it both ways; that is admitting that I could be wrong; as I have been wrong plenty of times in the past. My prediction is not a certainty; it is an Educated Guess based on what little I know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 I will not debate with you the fact that ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. However, as in politics, when you get into weather, you play the odds. Could Chicago score a great snow with this coming storm? Absolutely. But likewise; the chances the other way...predicated on climatology & specifics of this event lean towards my take on the matter more than the one reflected by the US Global Forecast Model (GFS). After 15 major GFS blizzards since November 2017 (about one a week); here is the total annual 2017-18 snowfall at 4 selected Midwest Cities: Rapid City: 14.4"Chicago O'Hare: 14.3"Lincoln: 11.8"Omaha: 10.0" So that is less than one inch per GFS blizzard.The proof is in the pudding.I rest my case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 You just mentioned Chicago would be lucky to get 6in out of this and now you are saying they can score BIG. It's either they will or they won't. Plus, plus most modeling has over 1" liquid qpf unless you take in the drier Euro run. Can they be wrong, sure can but the consistency has been there from run to run. I guess you can argue that the METS at LOT should not have issued a watch based on your assumptions but then you can argue that they have done their due diligence with the information at hand. I guess in the end we will see what transpires. Good luck to all of us cause I guess we are going to need it!Its a fickle set-up in order to score bug you probably need both waves to hit. A watch is a watch makes sense they issued it for he 1st wave. Who knows if it will be needed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Its a fickle set-up in order to score bug you probably need both waves to hit. A watch is a watch makes sense they issued it for he 1st wave. Who knows if it will be needed. There is no doubt it is going to snow across most of the Midwest. I am simply trying to persuade people to understand that the GFS prints out what is colloquially known as a "clown map" (and the Canadian likewise)...that is a long leap from reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 There is no doubt it is going to snow across most of the Midwest. I am simply trying to persuade people to understand that the GFS prints out what is colloquially known as a "clown map" (and the Canadian likewise)...that is a long leap from reality.I get it. The persuasion probably wont work. Any how the NAM will probably continue to fuel this discussion 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 if my mind doesn't fail me....it seems as though the lighter of trend has been a theme this winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 DVN issues WSWs for 4-8" accumulations mainly along and north of 30 and east of the ms river 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 I wrote that anything is possible. That is not having it both ways; that is admitting that I could be wrong; as I have been wrong plenty of times in the past. My prediction is not a certainty; it is an Educated Guess based on what little I know.I guess we can all agree that the models have been terrible and will continue to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 NAM going big here. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 This is a different type of snow system mostly fueled from lift along an east west baroclinic zone as weak waves travel along it. In this particular case, I don't think a big negatively tilted trough is necessary, especially in areas that score from both events. This area is most likely to set up somewhere in IL. The point you make about waves riding along the baroclinic zone is absolutely correct. However, when one relies on such a set-up for a snowstorm; one needs to remember that the swath of very heavy snow IS NARROW; and the margin of error is VERY SMALL. Thus even a small shift in the upper level flow can easily take the favored area out of the forecast heavy snow zone; something less likely than with a well developed mid-latitude cyclone; laden with Gulf Moisture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 I will not debate with you the fact that ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. However, as in politics, when you get into weather, you play the odds. Could Chicago score a great snow with this coming storm? Absolutely. But likewise; the chances the other way...predicated on climatology & specifics of this event lean towards my take on the matter more than the one reflected by the US Global Forecast Model (GFS). After 15 major GFS blizzards since November 2017 (about one a week); here is the total annual 2017-18 snowfall at 4 selected Midwest Cities: Rapid City: 14.4"Chicago O'Hare: 14.3"Lincoln: 11.8"Omaha: 10.0" So that is less than one inch per GFS blizzard.The proof is in the pudding.I rest my case. You should just come out and say it. You're jealous as h*ll looking at where Chicago sits 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 18z NAM, I know. But just for the sake of maps... http://i63.tinypic.com/2z3qwz6.gif LOT also updated their snow map through 6pm Friday. Thinking 8-12 for Chicago & most of N IL. 5 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Huge differences for Nebraska between 12Z GFS (good for us) and 18Z NAM (crapola). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 You should just come out and say it. You're jealous as h*ll looking at where Chicago sits I'm so jealous that if it jogs north another 15 miles The Windy City will be looking at a coating... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 I'm so jealous that if it jogs north another 15 miles The Windy City will be looking at a coating...Oh how the next 24 hours shall be exciting in this thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 You should just come out and say it. You're jealous as h*ll looking at where Chicago sits I'll bet you a penny that by Monday night; when all is said and done; the Rapid City NWS office measures more snow than Chicago O'Hare from now until then. So you won't have to take my ruler's word for it. Rapid City NWS WFO might be the only station around here that does worse than me. I'm ahead of them by 2.8" on the season...17.2" to 14.4". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Wow 18 nam looks horrendous. Omaha is between a band to the north snd one to the south. What the hell?!?! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Wave gets decent sampling tonight better tomorrow morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Id be extremely nervous if i lived in chi town. Thats a sharp cut off from huge amounts to nothing. Lol 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Oh how the next 24 hours shall be exciting in this thread I know! I'm having fun! When you have had as terrible a snow season as I have had; the only direction you can go is up. The so called "nothing to lose" take on things... There is that "Law of Averages" you know... You can't fight climatology... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 oh well been riding the nam for a day now...come on little pony...lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Nam giveth and taketh away madtown 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Id be extremely nervous if i lived in chi town. Thats a sharp cut off from huge amounts to nothing. LolBut you would rather be in chicago than in Omaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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