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April 2018 Observations and Discussion


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Correction to the above: I said that 2x, once in late Jan for the Feb open and the other time was recently for the April open.  Mind you, I was born in '82, so since then, I have not seen a pattern as

Now just imagine if this was four months ago.

Always a little sad when we transition out of winter storm mode. I thought the discussions were tremendous. I come here to learn from extremely smart people. I have told my wife that some on here hav

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Jesus H. Christ. Like it always does no matter the precip type, the rain is forming a dome around Lincoln. I'm done. I hate it here. I'm moving to Norfolk. I don't care if I become a redneck.

Yes

 

It doesn’t rain in Lincoln

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Yes

 

It doesn’t rain in Lincoln

It actually doesn't.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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It’s a nice sunny morning with a current temperature of 45° here at my house. The grass has mostly greened up now and with the warmer temperatures and any rain we get will get the grass growing in full swing. May sometimes is the cut the grass two or more times a week time of year.  That is if we get the needed rain. It looks like the start of May will be mild with a chance of thunderstorms by middle of next week

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I think it is safe to say that in southern lower Michigan the snow season is now over. And here are the totals as of April 25th with the 30 year average in ( )

Grand Rapids 77.9” (ave 74.9”) Muskegon 105.3” (ave 93.7”) Flint 85.3” (ave 47.3”) Detroit 61.0” (ave 42.4”) Lansing 53.3” (ave 51.0”) Saginaw 41.4” (ave 41.5”)  Off to the north there still could be some more snow fall but it is becoming less likely and this should be the seasonal total for most locations. Again with the average for the season

Alpena 82.5” (ave 84.3”) Houghton Lake 55.8” (ave 66.6”) Sault Ste Marie 127.8” (ave 120.4”) Traverse City 123.4” (ave 101.4”) Gaylord 140.7” (ave 141.4”) Petoskey 141.7” (ave 122.8”) and Marquette 175.2” (ave 200.7”)

Most locations in Michigan received above average snow fall for the 2017/18 winter season.

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I really think we get out of this abysmal pattern as we flip into the early part of May.  The LRC suggests a warming trend after the first few opening days of the month and recent runs of the CFSv2 are trying to hint at that.

 

cfs_t2m_anom_20E_northamerica_2018040900

 

 

It may strengthen as we get into the middle part of the month but I'm not jumping on it, esp if there is still a lot of blocking around.

 

cfs_t2m_anom_20E_northamerica_2018040900

Not a bad call, early part of May we Spring into action...I never doubt how valuable the LRC can be...

 

Edit: I was off by a couple days as the warmth came in sooner than expected.

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Our cold Spring is having an impact on planting our crop very late and these numbers don't lie...

 

DboMr1RXkAIJxPa.jpg

Good Find Tom.  I know of 1 farmer who planted on Monday.  Good rain yesterday will slow things for a few days.  Might be fairly windy in the next few days so I think planting will really take off the end of this week into early next week.  Still waiting for any trees to bud around here.  My yard is fairly green after the rain but not much thickness yet, still way to cool at night for much growth.

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Many trees are starting to bud or flower here. I'd say 50% of them have at least started up. Only a month later than normal.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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There was a good amount of frost at my house this morning. The low at the airport was reported at 34° but I had a low here of 31° Even after highs of 64,74,62 and 61 the mean at Grand Rapids so far this April is just 38.4° that is a departure of -8.6°. With highs of 64, 55, 50, 55 and 70 the rest of the month we will still end the month well below average.

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All this talk about planting season and green grass has me a little jealous. Lakes in C. Wis are still iced over and reports of 24-30" of ice on lakes up north is common. The strong sun and hopefully a warm t-storm along the way gives me hope for open water for the fishing opener May 5th. Parts of NE Wis could see a bit of light snow Friday morning but otherwise it looks like an end (FINALLY!!!) to winter! April was historic for sure. Magnified in my mind due to a lackluster snow season IMBY. More snow in April than DJFM combined. Crazy.

https://www.weather.gov/grb/RecordAprilSnowfallForMost

Here is a list of the monthly snowfall totals through April 22nd andhow it ranks as the snowiest April on record. Most locations acrossnorth-central and northeast Wisconsin have smashed the previoussnowiest April on record. An amazing 45.3 inches of snow has fallenat Tigerton in Shawano County while 44.0 inches has fallen atSturgeon Bay.  These totals are not a state record for the month ofApril. In 2013, an observer near Bayfield recorded 47.4 inches ofsnow for the month while 47.0 inches was recorded at the Brule RangerStation.Some locations on this list do not have a historical record or have avery short period of record. For these sites, NA was used for the oldrecord. The snowfall amounts below are preliminary based on what hasbeen reported so far. The numbers may change as additional data becomesavailable.                     April 2018            Current or Old RecordLocation              Snowfall     Rank      Amount     Year-----------------------------------------------------------------Tigerton                45.3        NASturgeon Bay            44.0       1st        13.5      1909Peshtigo                43.5       1st         9.5      1996Oconto - 4W             41.9       1st        17.0      1907Shawano - 2SW           41.5       1st        16.1      1928Shiocton                38.2        NAPulaski                 37.1        NAWashington Island       36.9       1st        15.5      1996Green Bay (NWS)         36.7       1st        15.1      1907Green Bay (Botanical)   36.5        NASister Bay              36.5        NASuamico - 4WNW          35.2        NAMerrill - 7W            34.6        NAWausau                  34.5       1st        25.5      1909Ephraim - 1NE           34.2        NAClintonville            33.6       1st        16.0      1977Land O` Lakes           33.2        NAWhite Lake              33.1        NAGreen Bay - 4SSE        33.1        NAMarinette               32.4       1st        13.0      1977Forestville - 4E        32.1        NANew London              31.8       2nd        32.0      1907Schofield               31.1        NAStevens Point           30.9       1st        19.0      1928Appleton                30.8       1st        26.0      1907Summit Lake             30.7       1st        26.6      2002Suring                  30.7       1st        13.0      1993Kaukauna                30.0        NAFlorence                29.5       1st        21.6      2008Marshfield              28.0       1st        17.0      1928Wisc. Rapids            27.9       1st        22.6      1977Rhinelander             27.8       2nd        28.1      2014Mountain                27.7        NAAntigo                  26.6       1st        20.0      1928Stratford - 1NW         24.2       1st        22.4      1965Argonne - 2MW           24.2       1st        23.0      2014Menasha                 24.2        NABrillion                24.0       1st        15.6      1928Eagle River             23.3       1st        22.9      2014Two Rivers              18.5       1st        12.5      1973Chilton                 18.0       2nd        18.5      1909Oshkosh                 16.8       1st        11.0      1910Manitowoc               13.3       3rd        18.5      1907
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WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin

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Many trees are starting to bud or flower here. I'd say 50% of them have at least started up. Only a month later than normal.

 

Same here gauging solely by the X-way bulb flowers now in full bloom. I'd say they're a good month later than avg, and with last year being warmest April on record here, they're actually WAY behind a year ago! 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 7.5"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 2.4 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Our cold Spring is having an impact on planting our crop very late and these numbers don't lie...

 

DboMr1RXkAIJxPa.jpg

 

Interesting that the Mitten is only off by 1% at this point. Guess we get a later start than most of the Midwest. As for TX, when I worked down there from May to Nov of 2010 I was shocked to see their corn all done in August! And that winter (09-10) was super harsh there so I'm figuring they got a later start than normal that spring. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 7.5"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 2.4 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Sunny and delightful day outside. Haven't been out yet as I am working in from my homeoffice today, but, looking from my windows, it looks dang nice out there. Approaching the 50s today and hello 70s next week w/ possible thunderstorms as well. :D

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.2"

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Another day in the low 70s here today.  It's hard to beat this week as we've been overperforming model forecasts every day.  I really would love to get some thunderstorms, though.  We could use the humidity, rain, and excitement.

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season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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"Friday night Flakes"....looks like a possibility across SE WI into parts of NE IL...

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_20.png

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_22.png

 

 

 

Spring Freeze on the table across parts of the GL's this weekend...

 

nam3km_T2m_ncus_53.png

 

 

00z Euro agrees...

 

DbvBvvTWkAI-iiy.jpg

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The thought came across my mind, how much longer will we have to use the furnace this year???  I think I've had to use it since mid Oct and have been running it for close to 7 months straight.  Might even have to use it in May as there is a solid signal that another cool push of air is on the horizon for the following weekend.

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The thought came across my mind, how much longer will we have to use the furnace this year???  I think I've had to use it since mid Oct and have been running it for close to 7 months straight.  Might even have to use it in May as there is a solid signal that another cool push of air is on the horizon for the following weekend.

 

Tried to leave mine off overnight and woke up to a cold house and an even colder wife! 

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WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin

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"Friday night Flakes"....looks like a possibility across SE WI into parts of NE IL...

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_20.png

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_22.png

 

 

 

Spring Freeze on the table across parts of the GL's this weekend...

 

nam3km_T2m_ncus_53.png

 

 

00z Euro agrees...

 

DbvBvvTWkAI-iiy.jpg

 

Yup, Marshall grid has 26F for Sun morning. Sure glad nothing's growing yet Axe_head.gif

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 7.5"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 2.4 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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This clipper type system diving due south across the area looks rather interesting on radar and is creating quite the thermal gradient pattern across the state.  70's in W IL and low 40's near the Lake...yuck!  Somebody nearby may see snow mix in overnight according to the RPM model.  I'm interested to see who, around these parts, may see their last flake fall for the season.

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Hello from Scottsdale, AZ. Pretty warm here, but not much worse than the Central Plains during the summer. 94°F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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This clipper type system diving due south across the area looks rather interesting on radar and is creating quite the thermal gradient pattern across the state. 70's in W IL and low 40's near the Lake...yuck! Somebody nearby may see snow mix in overnight according to the RPM model. I'm interested to see who, around these parts, may see their last flake fall for the season.

This stupid system caused the Brewers to lose today

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I'll be in Scottsdale till tomorrow. Just went for a run and it was in the mid-70s. Perfect running weather imo and it's been a while since I've ran outdoors. A bit sweaty but better than running this afternoon when it'll be in the mid-90s.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Currently @ 37F w cloudy skies. My forecast is calling for the chance of snowflurries today. No accumulations. Highs remaining in the upper 30s to low 40s and ovanight lows dipping down into the upper 20s. :wacko:

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.2"

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I'll be in Scottsdale till tomorrow. Just went for a run and it was in the mid-70s. Perfect running weather imo and it's been a while since I've ran outdoors. A bit sweaty but better than running this afternoon when it'll be in the mid-90s.

I'm a bit jelly that your out there bud!  I love Scottsdale and the hiking across the valley.  Early morning jogs are the best out there with the rising sun and just perfect conditions.  I visually imagined what it looked like during your run!  Miss the mountains and scenery!  

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82F in the point for Monday. That will be 15 days after the 18” snowstorm. Not too many places can experience that drastic of a change in such a short amount of time. That’s the beauty of living in the Midwest.

Yup

 

One of the reasons I love the MW. You experience every season.

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Hey, let's do this one more time and put this month to bed???  Record lows on the table tomorrow morning across the Mitt and some locals in the region.

 

 

Db35UweX0AImWGS.jpg

The current forecasted low for the overnight here is in the mid 20's The record low here in Grand Rapids for April 29th is 28° the last time that happened was in the warm spring of 2012. The current temperature here at my house with full sun and a lot of wind is 45° Here at the ballpark last night we had a doubleheader the first game time temp was reported as 55 and the second game time temp was reported as 46 but with the wind it felt cold. Tonight it well be colder and at this time looks to be windy. Not a good spring for playing baseball in the Mitt  

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Thinking our best shot for severe wx in Lincoln is Tuesday. Monday the threat looks to be too far NW of us and Wednesday it looks to be too far South of us. I don't have night classes Tuesday so bring it on then please.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Canadian HP parked over head is allowing temps to plunge into the upper 20's around town.  Hopefully, this will be the last time this Season we see temps this cold.  It's a frosty start to the morning around here.  Boy, does Chitown have a wonderful summery week of weather to look forward to.  The long awaited break from our ridiculously cold April is poised to begin today.  Plenty of 70's and might squeeze out an 80 degree temp this week!

 

An active week of weather should ignite some powerful storms across the Plains this week.  Who's ready to see some fireworks from nature???  It would be nice to hear some big claps of thunder and beneficial rains around here.  Been kinda dry of late and the vegetation would certainly appreciate a drink, esp the ag belt.

 

00z GEFS...through this Saturday....

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_28.png

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Chitown set another monthly record:

 

 

NWS Chicago

#Chicago-O'Hare dipped to 31° this morning, tying the record low for 4/29 set in 1958 and 2008. This also was the whopping 16th day with lows of 32° or lower this month, setting a new record for the month of April for days with min temps of 32° or lower. #ilwx

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Wow.... An enhanced hatched area for Tuesday right smack over Lincoln. When I get home tonight I'm in full blown weather mode.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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OAX's take on Tuesday here:

 

 

 

The front settles southward into the forecast area during the day
Tuesday, and will be along or just north of I80 at peak heating.
Parameters are in place for supercell storms with very large
hail, then transitioning more to a wind and heavy rain threat. SPC
has placed southern half of the CWA in an enhanced risk and this
seems reasonable. While it`s too soon to focus on tornado
potential, there does seem to be a small window of opportunity
late Tuesday afternoon/evening along the frontal boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Apr 29 2018

The previously mentioned frontal boundary stalls in the area
Tuesday night. Severe storms will be likely Tuesday evening. With
the front in a similar position on Wednesday, additional strong
and possibly severe storms may develop Wednesday afternoon/evening
along/south of Interstate 80. Rainfall Tuesday night could range
1-2" in some areas. While it`s still 4 days out, additional heavy
rainfall potential could develop in Wednesday afternoon/evening
as well, and WPC has placed some of the area in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall. While we have certainly been quite dry lately,
if we may eventually need to monitor for localized flooding
concerns if storms develop over the same areas.

 

SPC's:

 

 

 

Storms should form along a cold front by 21Z, perhaps initially
supercells but then with a rapid upscale growth into a cell cluster
or MCS. These storms will be capable of very large hail initially,
with a greater damaging wind threat as the convective system grows
and propagates east-southeast. These storms will be maintained by a
southwesterly low-level jet, with back-building likely toward south
central NE or north central KS. Models vary on precise placement of
the front, therefore, the Enhanced Risk area may be expanded or
shifted in later outlooks. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with
initial development prior to the expected upscale growth.

 

Nothing fun about hail being the primary threat.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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It looks like the official low at GRR this morning was 29° so no record low at Grand Rapids. However here at my house the low was 25° At this time have full sun and a current temperature at my house of 42° The grass has now turned green in my area. Still not enough to have to cut yet but that will change with the expected rain over the next few days. Gee I just drained the snow blower last week.

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The CR airport hit 27 intra-hour this morning (32 at top of the two hours around the 27).  However, here in town the school stations only hit mid to upper 30s.

 

Man, I am dying to get a good thunderstorm.

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season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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