Money Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 RUC is even N of the NAM and the HRRR is really far north at HR 15 4km nam just destroys chicago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 RUC is even N of the NAM and the HRRR is really far north at HR 15 4km nam just destroys chicagoreally??? any north iowa hits? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 RUC is even N of the NAM and the HRRR is really far north at HR 15 4km nam just destroys chicago Maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Don't worry guys- we're not missing out here either. Last I saw we might get .3" tomorrow evening..... God this sucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Don't worry guys- we're not missing out here either. Last I saw we might get .3" tomorrow evening..... God this sucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036&image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140311+00+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=033&image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140311+00+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Mike Caplan on FB: I've just gotten a glance at tonight's run of the NAM (a computer model we all use) It has been a HIGH outlier on snowfall amounts and now it is positively unreal. Stay tuned. 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 HRRR at HR 15 has the low in S. Nebraska lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036&image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140311+00+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=033&image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140311+00+UTC&imageSize=&ps=areathats so close to me i can throw rocks and hit it....but still doesnt give me anything. i hate it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 HRRR at HR 15 has the low in S. Nebraska lol Congrats you and Milwaukee then! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Congrats you and Milwaukee then!And a 992mb low at that time.. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 This would be the perfect storm to put the icing on the cake for this winter here in Chicago if the NAM comes even close to what its showing. Classic Spring time storm that I've been saying all long back in February will bring fuel to the fire to wind up these monster storms. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 not that I expect it to happen but hasnt the HRRR been pretty accurate this winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-68-0-19759000-1394505864.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Been running around all night enjoying the awesome weather and I come back to a possible blizzard? Wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Is anyone else still in a state of shock haha!? Tom, if half this verified we are still looking at a solid 6-12" lol, I say 6" to not destroy my hopes! But, NAM being an outlier makes me feel a little uneasy, I don't really know yet... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-68-0-19759000-1394505864.gifHOLY MOTHER OF GOD....................... Im in the 2ft+ zone!!!!!!!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 00z HRRR at HR 15: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=winter_briefing New discussion worth a read. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleather Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 000FXUS63 KLOT 110249AFDLOTAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL949 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014.DISCUSSION...948 PM CDTWATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OFINTEREST NOW MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM IS EVEN PRODUCINGLIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO AT THIS TIME.THE NEW 00 UTC NAM IS CURRENTLY ROLLING IN AND IS VERY CONCERNINGFOR MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT TRACKS THE LOWERLEVEL CIRCULATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI ANDCENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH MOREFAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDINGTHE CHICAGO METRO AND RFD AREAS. ALSO GIVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVESLOWLY BEEN INCHING NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...I CANNOT DISCOUNTTHE NAM SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A LOT GOING FORIT...WITH ALL MODELS EVEN INDICATING SOME UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLINGACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH GOOD FGEN SETTING UP INCONJUNCTION WITH THE LOWER/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.THEREFORE...HEAVY SNOW...MAYBE EVEN WITH CONVECTION...IS POSSIBLETUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA.IN SPITE OF ALL THIS...HOWEVER...RATHER THAN SHIFTING THE WATCHNORTHWARD TO INCLUDE NORTHERN ILLINOIS...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE NEW00 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOINGHEADLINES...TO ENSURE THAT A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION IS THE WAY TOGO. AS IT STANDS...THE NAM IS THE FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM.NOW THAT THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS ONSHORE ACROSS THEWESTERN CONUS...THE 00UTC RAOBS SHOULD BE SAMPLING IT NOW...SO THENEW GLOBAL GUIDANCE THIS EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO GET A BETTER HANDLEON THE SYSTEM.KJB&& Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Basically bringing us back to reality for a bit, 0z is the key I guess! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Basically bringing us back to reality for a bit, 0z is the key I guess! Very good discussion. Waiting for the rest of 0Z guidance is the way to go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Anyone catch skilling? What was his take? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 @ 6789, I agree, even if we get half of what the NAM is showing it's still a solid 8-10" snow storm. Like I said, this system has everything going for it and now it is on shore and the NAM was the first model to digest the new data. I expect the rest of the Global Models to follow suit. FWIW, the NAM is showing temps crash into the 20's around midnight so the snow won't be a wetter version. Maybe on the onset but quickly turn fluffier so snow ratios would increase as well. 1.0"+ QPF on the 4-km NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 skilling was at 4 - 8 for his totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 RGEM laughs at the nam. similar as 12z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Anyone catch skilling? What was his take?As of the last time I checked it was a 6-8" call for him. Now, he may increase them to 8-12". I'm not going to get to excited, and I'm going to stick with my 6-12" for now, bigger range until I see what other models are doing. Tom, said it best if it stays in the lower to upper 20's and we see these heavy bands I think 12" isn't out of the possibility MAYBE even 14" I still don't think we will hit the 16-24" I just think that's obscene as of now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 donut hole! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 not that I expect it to happen but hasnt the HRRR been pretty accurate this winter? No, pretty bad. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Guys, remember the last dynamic system that hit in February that brought flooding concerns in N IL???? The NAM was spitting out 1-1.25" of rain and it did extremely well handling that system. I'm optimistic this storm is going to hit us hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 HRRR/RAP/RUC/NAM all get it strong. RGEM strongest is 997 it looks like until it gets out into IN/OH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 I can under stand writing this run off if this was 3-4 days out but 24 hours before game time NAM has me a little concerned. Models did show something similar 10 days or so ago no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 so whats it looking like up this way my 1": call still looking good? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 How every Nebraskan looks @ mother nature after Chicago gets dumped on again: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-o5Pu1rMxxTA/UMEFc0EijAI/AAAAAAAAYjM/w5PKPAhfc54/s1600/Puss+in+Boots+cute+expression.jpeg EDIT: How are you guys getting these 12" totals from the HRRR?? That doesn't even have the precip getting going into my area 16 hours out? Also, there was a storm here in March of 2007 where we had an advisory issued for 2-4", and got 17". I could see it Chicago, you guys got the record breaker on the ropes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 @ Indianajohn, the Euro was the only model that showed 1-2 Feet of snow over E IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/S MI about 8 or 9 days ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 How every Nebraskan looks @ mother nature after Chicago gets dumped on again: EDIT: How are you guys getting these 12" totals from the HRRR?? That doesn't even have the precip getting going into my area 16 hours out?I don't recall anyone saying the HRRR shows that.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Who's staying up for the GGEM/EURO??? HAHAHA, that extra hour of waiting is going to be killer... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hey tom, we got anything to worry about up here between mke and Madison got some travel to do on wed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 I don't recall anyone saying the HRRR shows that..You're right, I was looking at money's post about how the models are 'strong', not showing 12" haha my bad guys. I do like the looks of the HRRR though! If we get snow here I will actually be amazed. We got up to 79 here today, I just don't see how we'd get accumulation from this like the NAM is showing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 GGEM will be the limit for me tonight. --- 4km NAM has a concrete snow for NE IL until about 5z. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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