Phil Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Threading the needle on the 12Z ECMWF to a nice Memorial Day weekend! Rain is pushed farther south into southern Oregon on Friday and Saturday. Sunday and Monday look really nice on this run. Some low clouds on Saturday morning when the low passes by to the south but then totally sunny everywhere after that with pleasant temps. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Up to 71/56 currently under crystal clear blue skies. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 I see Aleutian ridging! Last 4 episodes of such have trended equatorward relative to climo, starting with the first anticyclonic event last November. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Bit of a trough out there in la la land. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Bit of a trough out there in la la land. 12Z ECMWF shows that by next Wednesday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 A genuine deep trough on the 12Z ECMWF by next Thursday... maybe I should move our reservations out a week since Memorial Day weekend is looking much better. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 I like that you don't just jump the gun, you embrace jumping the gun. Wonder where "jump the gun" came from anyway...Track and field. Starting gun.Yeah it came from track and field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 A genuine deep trough on the 12Z ECMWF by next Thursday... maybe I should move our reservations out a week since Memorial Day weekend is looking much better. Woah..no vortex over Baffin Island? If we can actually get rid of that thing (for more than just one week) it will be much easier to establish Aleutian ridging/-PNA. Mechanically speaking. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Already into the 70s here in Hillsboro. Gorgeous and sunny outside. Through the first 3 weeks of May it's been the 2nd warmest on record here at PDX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Already into the 70s here in Hillsboro. Gorgeous and sunny outside. Through the first 3 weeks of May it's been the 2nd warmest on record here at PDX. The record warmth and dryness this month has been well discussed here. Any comment on that warming trend now that the 12z runs have come out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Great Euro run. GFS ensembles have trended cooler as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 The record warmth and dryness this month has been well discussed here. Any comment on that warming trend now that the 12z runs have come out?I've always said there would be a period of troughing and below normal temperatures. It will eventually come. My forecast for June in the PNW is still around average with the cooler anomalies north, not changing that at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 I've always said there would be a period of troughing and below normal temperatures. It will eventually come. My forecast for June in the PNW is still around average with the cooler anomalies north, not changing that at the moment. I hope you're right... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 A genuine deep trough on the 12Z ECMWF by next Thursday... maybe I should move our reservations out a week since Memorial Day weekend is looking much better. FWIW... the EPS is much weaker with the trough and cool down at that time. Here is the 12Z EPS for the same day as above: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 FWIW... the EPS is much weaker with the trough and cool down at that time. Here is the 12Z EPS for the same day as above: Hoping it pans out just for the likelihood that it would likely rain and wash out the air. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 FWIW... the EPS is much weaker with the trough and cool down at that time. Here is the 12Z EPS for the same day as above: I'll take any positive news right now. It's an epic battle between summer and pseudo-summer... 1 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Not just timing either... here is day 11 from the 12Z EPS. Its not showing anything like the operational run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 There have been other attacks though... just not fatal. Best to just be prepared. Are you kidding? There are hundreds of cougar attacks every weekend.....in local bars...frequented by single young men and older women.... *HUNDREDS* The horror of it all.... 3 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Trough never comes on the 12Z EPS... no sign of it on day 15. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Of course, this image is much more informative. Shows that the EPS does indeed have a troughing signal at day 10. But not as fun as an amorphous blob of orange. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Day 9. Troughing signal. About as good a match as can be expected with highly smoothed 500mb maps. The same basic pattern is in place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 I hope you're right...I think an average June would be an absolute nightmare for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Not more informative at all. I said the EPS was weaker with the trough. And it's actually ridgy and warm in the 10-15 day period. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Not more informative at all. I said the EPS was weaker with the trough. And it's actually ridgy and warm in the 10-15 day period.Actual mean 500mb heights tells you a lot more than a map that looks like it lost a paintball war to the orange team. Doesn’t stroke the pleasure spot quite the same, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 We all know warmth on the EPS never verifies. It's been showing warmth for the last 5 weeks. What a joke! Compare that to actual results. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 We all know warmth on the EPS never verifies. It's been showing warmth for the last 5 weeks. What a joke!Do you think we aren’t due for a pattern change? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Do you think we aren’t due for a pattern change?Does not matter. You have been saying that for weeks while the EPS marches along generally warm. Its still doing that. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Does not matter. You have been saying that for weeks while the EPS marches along generally warm. Its still doing that.So you think early June will be warm? I notice the EPS will sometimes go with persistence in the LR. The fact that it has a troughy look days 8-10 is more promising to me than any day 15 stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 So you think early June will be warm?I notice the EPS will sometimes go with persistence in the LR. The fact that it has a troughy look days 8-10 is more promising to me than any day 15 stuff.I would guess June will be warm overall... but that does not mean there will not be any periods of troughing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Are you kidding? There are hundreds of cougar attacks every weekend.....in local bars...frequented by single young men and older women.... *HUNDREDS* The horror of it all.... Best to be prepared, no matter what type of cougar one may encounter. Hopefully Tim has trained his son well. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 I would guess June will be warm overall... but that does not mean there will not be any periods of troughing.Didn’t answer the question. Betting on a warm overall summer month is like shooting fish in a barrel. Especially at SEA or PDX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 I think an average June would be an absolute nightmare for you. It would be FAR wetter than this May... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Didn’t answer the question.Betting on a warm overall summer month is like shooting fish in a barrel.Probably a cool period at the very end of May into the first couple days of June. Not sure about all of early June though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 FWIW, GFS ensemble mean does not show ridging at day 10...but still kind of a cutoff ULL signal. Beyond that looks fairly seasonable. Definitely no strong troughing signal, but there is a decent signal for GOA ridging, which would probably keep a fair amount of onshore flow going. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Thunderstorms would be nice... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 There have been other attacks though... just not fatal. Best to just be prepared.I always have bear spray with me when out on hikes...more so for offleash dogs more than anything else. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tfboOt1bJcA Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Thunderstorms would be nice... Move east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Not just timing either... here is day 11 from the 12Z EPS. Its not showing anything like the operational run. Well, most members do transition the pattern, however there are huge timing differences as far as start time is concerned. Many members have yet to flip @ D15. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.