Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
Notice the EPS keeps extending the duration of IO convection in the long range. Clear that is where the low frequency forcing is trying to establish.
The “Splitting” of the -VP anomalies is the MJO propagating eastward while the low frequency forcing (base state) remains over the IO.
Pretty rare to have ridging through June. You are young. 2015 was a rare exception that has no chance of repeating this year.
And I would probably prefer 65 and cloudy over 95 and sunny on most days. But 72 and sunny is vastly superior to both!
The 12z CMC is one way out, but it seems like that model likes to follow that exact progression every other run, no matter the weather pattern in place.
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