PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Meatyorologist]

18z BLASTS before 300hr! Similar airmass to Monday's upcoming one for OR, but a fair amount colder in WA, with notable Arctic air into SW Canada.

[Meatyorologist]

More good news, this upcoming trough is going to dig into the desert SW and wrap up some subtropical moisture without too much moderation in temperature. This means big snows for UT, AZ, CO, and even into NM, as well as portions of CA and NV.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

We're almost guaranteed to not see another Nina in 2023-24, if that is what you're taking issue with. Whether it's neutral or a Nino remains to be seen.

I think neutral is a really good bet.  There aren't any examples of a Nino when the numbers are still this buried in Nina territory this late in the season.  My point is the demise of the Nina has been overhyped.  It has held on quite strongly to this point.

[Doinko]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

More good news, this upcoming trough is going to dig into the desert SW and wrap up some subtropical moisture without too much moderation in temperature. This means big snows for UT, AZ, CO, and even into NM, as well as portions of CA and NV.

Then it ejects into the plains for a snowstorm there too.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z BLASTS before 300hr! Similar airmass to Monday's upcoming one for OR, but a fair amount colder in WA, with notable Arctic air into SW Canada.

This is looking pretty solid.

I'm going out on a limb and predicting the remainder of the month averages 5F to 8F below normal.

[Meatyorologist]

This run might go nuts. Already a big snowstorm for western WA by 306hr with extremely cold air gushing south into BC and a big blocking high blowing up.

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, icyasf said:

Just saw the first bumblebee this year. Shouldn’t be out this early. 

Probably just a fluke.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How was I heading down a negative road? The event Monday/Tuesday looks great. Just a comment on the 12z GFS. EPS is rock solid. 

This one post was enough to get me fully onboard!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This run might go nuts. Already a big snowstorm for western WA by 306hr with extremely cold air gushing south into BC and a big blocking high blowing up.

Big dump and then really cold.  Very impressive run.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Guess where I live? (Not that I take these maps that seriously)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Winter storm watch posted! 

Time to charge your phone!

[Hawksfan2008]

We chose the 19th-25th. The sacrifice has been made. 

[snow_wizard]

Just need one more decent event to give this winter a pretty solid grade here.

[RentonHill]

Why is there any green on this precip map at all

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Why is there any green on this precip map at all

It gets too cold to snow, so it comes back around full circle.

[Gradient Keeper]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Big dump and then really cold.  Very impressive run.

This sounds eerily similar to how my night went last night. Equally as impressive. Someone had to do it you just made it too easy!

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Gradient Keeper]

I will one day become mature. That day isn't today. Tomorrow is looking unlikely as well.

00z NAM (we're in NAM range!) in 2 hours 16 minutes

[Phil]

 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Lock it in!

[Gradient Keeper]

This is going to be BONKERS by late February standards, and maybe even Winter in general. WOW! Cautiously optimistic, but my confidence is increasing too.

[MWG]

NWS Medford 3pm discussion!

[Cold Snap]

18 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

We chose the 19th-25th. The sacrifice has been made. 

Same timeframe for me as well unfortunately. Might see if I can come back a few days early. Though that might cause a rug pull at the last minute.

[WeatherGeek2022]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Lock it in!

gonna see the same thing going all the way to march 1 calling it now this thing is definitely dangling like a carrot.

[SnowWillarrive]

22 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Why is there any green on this precip map at all

Green is swamp gas. It’s kryptonite to arctic air. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Winter storm watch posted! 

Wow. You're going to get 10-12" I bet! DUDE! Snow party at Andrews!

[T-Town]

 

[TT-SEA]

41 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

We chose the 19th-25th. The sacrifice has been made. 

Where are you going?   I would say 50% of the people we have met here in Maui are from western WA and OR.    Haven't heard anyone say they are looking forward to going back.   

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Where are you going?   I would say 50% of the people we have met here in Maui are from western WA and OR.    Haven't heard anyone say they are looking forward to going back.   

Did you even tell them it was coming?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Did you even tell them it was coming?

A couple people have actually mentioned it to me... specifically the Valentines Day snow chance.    They have no clue what craziness awaits them later in the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z was a nice run, that is for sure. 

[RentonHill]

Euro says I’m in the spot for vday. I’ll believe it when I see it. CZ never really seems to settle right here for long

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Euro says I’m in the spot for vday. I’ll believe it when I see it. CZ never really seems to settle right here for long

Looks good for East King. 

[Doinko]

20 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Euro says I’m in the spot for vday. I’ll believe it when I see it. CZ never really seems to settle right here for long

What's it like for the Willamette Valley?

[Requiem]

20 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Euro says I’m in the spot for vday. I’ll believe it when I see it. CZ never really seems to settle right here for long

Could we get a map for the WV?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Could we get a map for the WV?

You must be new here?

[Cascadia_Wx]

I for one hope that people who aren’t looking forward to coming back get their wish

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kind of a low key coolish day. 48/35 at SLE. Only got up to 42 here. 

[RentonHill]