PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[RentonHill]

Day 9 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. The EURO is really struggling.

GFS does well with these maritime troughs. NAILED it with the one coming in today. 

Edited February 13, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[FroYoBro]

9 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

It's 39 here in Sandy. Dry at the moment. Temperature is dropping.  I can't remember how much snow we had last April, a few inches. Didn't really stand out.

You should be getting a nice little coating of snow tonight/tomorrow morning. Take pictures for us!

[Slushy Inch]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Massive improvement in the very long range. 

Actually, warmer than last runs.

[RentonHill]

Day 10

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. The EURO is really struggling.

GFS does well with these maritime troughs. NAILED it with the one coming in today. 

I just went back on Tropical Tidbits and looked at the ECMWF run from one week ago this morning and it showed the current trough diving into the PNW almost perfectly.   Are you saying the ECMWF didn't show a deep, cold trough for Valentines Day a week ago?   Because it did show it and we were talking about it.     

[Slushy Inch]

Impressive GEPS.

[BLI snowman]

Odds that we see Jim around the rest of the month are slimming....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Actually, warmer than last runs.

I thought it looked better at the 500mb level. 850mb temps kind of pulse between runs. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the EURO is heading in the right direction at the end. It's just going to take it a little while to get in line with it's older brother. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Odds that we see Jim around the rest of the month are slimming....

It takes a truly special once in a decade (or two) type of event to see meaningful wide spread snow in the lowlands once we get into late-February. Especially if we are looking at something with a continental flair. 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the EURO is heading in the right direction at the end. It's just going to take it a little while to get in line with it's older brother. 

It was pretty far from EPS yesterday as well. Does highlight the chance of a problematic trajectory.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Impressive GEPS.

Looking good brotha. 

[BLI snowman]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It takes a truly special once in a decade (or two) type of event to see meaningful wide spread snow in the lowlands once we get into late-February. Especially if we are looking at something with a continental flair. 

Even an airmass as cold as last year's late February one isn't exactly something I would hold my breath and wait on seeing again in the next decade.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Even an airmass as cold as last year's late February one isn't exactly something I would hold my breath and wait on seeing again in the next decade.

Hopefully we can do it in January... More likely December though.

[bainbridgekid]

Just had two significant rumbles of thunder in Mountlake Terrace.

Interestingly despite orange on the radar passing directly over me, it actually hardly rained at all.

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Any pushback now and we are into March. March is life alert for regional events….. 

[RentonHill]

EPS hr 210 vs 00z 850s

[Gradient Keeper]

Snowflake Counter
Just in time for our coming snow event! Maybe!

[Deweydog]

Splats!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Snowflake Counter
Just in time for our coming snow event! Maybe!

A Valentine's Day gift for Jim. 

[Kayla]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the EURO is heading in the right direction at the end. It's just going to take it a little while to get in line with it's older brother. 

Right direction if you like 1000' snow levels (which I know you do!)

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

EPS hr 210 vs 00z 850s

Not sure if that is better or worse. Need to see heights.

[RentonHill]

EPS Day 10 vs Euro

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Right direction if you like 1000' snow levels (which I know you do!)

1,000' snow levels might be optimistic at the end of the ECMWF.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Not sure if that is better or worse. Need to see heights.

Seems not quite as good, but seems like less of a trend to dump stuff out over the ocean, so that's not terrible. 

[RentonHill]

850s are slightly better here

 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

850s are slightly better here

 

Looks good. OP is on its own.

[RentonHill]

This looks pretty good to me. For the potential, at least. Day 11

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Right direction if you like 1000' snow levels (which I know you do!)

Yeah, obviously the trough isn't here yet at hour 240 on the operational, but it is on the move and heading south. 

[Kayla]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

EPS Day 10 vs Euro

I just realized that those weathermodels maps are based off a 20 year mean. That's kind of making the anomalies look deceivingly great.

[MWG]

Was all sunny and all of the sudden it's cloudy. Winds starting to pick up too.

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, obviously the trough isn't here yet at hour 240 on the operational, but it is on the move and heading south. 

With already way too much overwater trajectory. That's just not going to get the job done below 1000' in late Feb.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

This looks pretty good to me. For the potential, at least. Day 11

Oh that will do.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I just realized that those weathermodels maps are based off a 20 year mean. That's kind of making the anomalies look deceivingly great.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I just realized that those weathermodels maps are based off a 20 year mean. That's kind of making the anomalies look deceivingly great.

Usually looks about the same on Weatherbell.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I just realized that those weathermodels maps are based off a 20 year mean. That's kind of making the anomalies look deceivingly great.

I have been wondering about that as well.    

[Meatyorologist]

The NAM tries to bring through a nice PSCZ convective band in a few hours. With an environment like this, there would likely be lightning, hail, heavy downpours, and pockets of wet snow.

[Kayla]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Usually looks about the same on Weatherbell.

Makes a difference though. 1991-2020 climate norms vs 2003-2022 norms.

Just something to keep in mind I suppose.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

With already way too much overwater trajectory. That's just not going to get the job done below 1000' in late Feb.

Oh yeah absolutely.