Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
The recent 3 year La Niña stored a huge load of heat within the IPWP, which was suddenly released en masse during the strong El Niño.
People blame the 1998 super niño for the subsequent “jump” in baseline global temps at the turn of the century, but in reality it was the 3+ year niña from 1999-2001 that sequestered all that heat in the IPWP.
Same with that massive 3+ year niña from 1973/74 - 1975/76. What followed was the great pacific climate shift of 1976, and a subsequent jump in global temperatures.
We need only look to CERES data to see how radiative emission to space increases during El Niño, and decreases during La Niña.
Except CERES data indicates aerosol forcing had little to do with it.
The SST warming wasn’t even focused in the areas where the reduction in aerosols occurred..the NPAC warm blob is the smallest it’s been in a decade, and the ATL warming is focused in the tropics, not the extratropical waters.
And that was with El Niño doing its best to keep that heat out of the lower-48.
This summer there’s nothing to stop things from going the way of the 1930s. I don’t see a way out.
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