Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
Haven't had a bunch of time to track these most recent storms. I heard part of Omaha had a wedge tornado?
I can remember a few saying there should be a moderate risk but the SPC never put one up.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 64/34 there was 0.01” of rainfall and the sun was out 52% of the time. The average wind speed was 13.1MPH and the highest wind was 33 MPH out of the SE. For today the average H/L is 63/42 the record high of 85 was set in 1990 and the record low of 27 was set in 1928. The most rainfall of 1.90” was in 1956 the record snowfall was 0.2” in 2004. Last year the H/L was 64/29. Here in MBY I had 0.09” of rain since 7AM yesterday and the overnight low of 53 was around midnight. At the current time it is cloudy and 58 here.
For the early afternoon SRH is limited but CAPE is huge. The CAPE is probably overstated given entrainment, but this does certainly support large hail
Later in the day the hodograph blows out as the LLJ kicks in. This looks more like a QLCS tornado threat as a presumably linear feature moves in.
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