gabel23 Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 12Z Euro has 7-10 inches of rain over the next 10 days falling across Iowa. This is going to be a very active pattern.How about us in Nebraska? Does it look similar to the GFS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Iowa and Nebraska 12Z Euro precipitation maps. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Iowa and Nebraska 12Z Euro precipitation maps.Oh my...….that 10.3 bullseye is mby 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Iowa and Nebraska 12Z Euro precipitation maps.Holy moly. Build a boat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 See that giant high falling in over the bering Sea after? Nice stuff. That image is autumn weather porn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 So which half wins is the question? GEFS trends are slowly pressing the ridge east or SE with time but, I stress, the trend is slow. Following trend around 192-240 hrs or so. That thing locks in for a long time. I didn't realize it had switched to "jamming" the psttern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 EURO shifting things east. Being the west biased model, interested to see what happens. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 EURO shifting things east. Being the west biased model, interested to see what happens. FB_IMG_1538356307259.jpgNice looking map. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Nice looking map.If that HP over AK wins vs the SE ridge, look out. Euro ens actually shows a height record over AK at 240 pressing on that cold. My thought is that the SE ridge gets squished. Cold is coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 This big western trough is a very favorable pattern for some plains severe weather as well. Juicy jet with favorable orientation. Euro keeps things more meridional which tempers potential quite a lot. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018093012/180/500wh.conus.png 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 There are a few 70s appearing next week and a couple the following week as well. Also, unsettled weather seems to be the name of the game here in SEMI for the next several days. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 This big western trough is a very favorable pattern for some plains severe weather as well. Juicy jet with favorable orientation. Euro keeps things more meridional which tempers potential quite a lot. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018093012/180/500wh.conus.pngSome modeling is just nice to look at. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 This big western trough is a very favorable pattern for some plains severe weather as well. Juicy jet with favorable orientation. Euro keeps things more meridional which tempers potential quite a lot. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018093012/180/500wh.conus.pngI noticed that too. I'd like cold to come and stay, and I'll take some severe wx if that comes with some cold air. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Welcome to October! It looks like portions of the area will open up the month on a stormy note. Legit chance for severe wx later tonight across N IL and parts of E IA/S WI.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Storming way bad this morning. Heavy downpours and lightning flashes about blinded me on my drive to work. Had 0.62" over night on top of the 0.22" from the weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Question, does this link open up for you guys w/out any issues??? This is NOAA's snow cover map and I'm having problems opening the page as it states I have a privacy error. Thanks in advance. https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Question, does this link open up for you guys w/out any issues??? This is NOAA's snow cover map and I'm having problems opening the page as it states I have a privacy error. Thanks in advance. https://www.natice.noaa.gov/imsLink doesn't work, I got the same thing popping up! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Question, does this link open up for you guys w/out any issues??? This is NOAA's snow cover map and I'm having problems opening the page as it states I have a privacy error. Thanks in advance. https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/Tom this link does not open. I got a message stating it is not a secure site. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Question, does this link open up for you guys w/out any issues??? This is NOAA's snow cover map and I'm having problems opening the page as it states I have a privacy error. Thanks in advance. https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/If you're using Chrome, click "advanced" down at the bottom and there will be a link to proceed. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 If you're using Chrome, click "advanced" down at the bottom and there will be a link to proceed.Thanks man! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Up to 2.5" of rain has fallen in Waterloo overnight/this morning, and it's not done yet. I've picked up 0.28" since late yesterday. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 It is pouring outside and the radar looks loaded w moisture. If this was Winter and cold air in place, look-out. http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/cad_None_anim.gif @Jaster: I think you are alittle too south on all of this moisture today, no? Or, are ya just getting clipped by it. Alittle snow showing up in the Arrowhead of MN if ya look closely. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Currently, at 52F w heavy rain. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 A battle of the seasons during the next couple weeks will result in a wildly active, stormy....and potentially wintry one????? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Still raining moderately and temps are hovering at the 51F range. Definitely, a wet, chilly, Autumn day. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Missing me by like 10 freaking miles again! GRR had 80% Hvy Rain in my grid last night. Didn't get a drop. Please, stop the teases already! At least it's NOT winter, uggh if it was. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Rain finally ended here. Cloudy and damp currently w very cool conditions. Temp is at 51F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Missing me by like 10 freaking miles again! GRR had 80% Hvy Rain in my grid last night. Didn't get a drop. Please, stop the teases already! At least it's NOT winter, uggh if it was.Yikes. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Part of Waterloo now up to 3.5" of rain with another heavy cell moving in. Waterloo just set a new record for wettest month on record, and now they start October with this. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Latest euro 10-day precip map. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 @Niko Surprised you didn't mention the Medicane in Greece?? http://www.intellicast.com/Video/Player.aspx?id=0f197215-78a1-4bc1-8362-cd2a5e74858b Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 2, 2018 Report Share Posted October 2, 2018 The severe potential crapped out. However, many locations near hw20 in Iowa, between Waterloo and Dubuque, received 3+ inches of rain, with isolated 5+. Down here in CR, today's system didn't do much. All the heavy stuff remained north all day and then once it passed through there wasn't much to it. A couple nice, but little cells went around me, so all I got was light rain. I'll have to wait til Friday for the next chance of good rain. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 2, 2018 Report Share Posted October 2, 2018 @Niko Surprised you didn't mention the Medicane in Greece?? http://www.intellicast.com/Video/Player.aspx?id=0f197215-78a1-4bc1-8362-cd2a5e74858bYup....it was no biggie in the Athens area and the surrounding nearby islands. My Islands "Andros" and "Chios" where I usually stay during the Summertime got speared, thank goodness. Northern parts of Greece received some flooding, but nothing extreme. Spoke to family and friends up there and they were laughing about it. Southern parts of Greece (Cyklades) area just saw a little rain and breezy conditions w waves reaching 3-4ft. Today it was sunny and temps in the 70s in the Mediterranean. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2018 As the ol' saying goes, "great minds, think alike"...nice write up by Gary Lezak this morning regarding the beginning's of the new LRC pattern. I jumped on the idea of a EC ridge once I saw the Aleutian Ridge in late Sept, but how long does it last??? Still riding on the idea that post 10th, there will be a bigger trough that'll take over the central CONUS. Actually, I just saw the Euro Weeklies, and it is keeping the central states below normal after the the 10th, even all the way down into deep TX. @ LNKwx, can you confirm??? At 7 PM tonight Rosa will be crossing the coast and spreading some rain into the southwestern United States. The old LRC and new LRC are combining in last years last gasp at frustrating us in KC. Look at what happens just a couple days later:http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2-640x435.pngThis strong cold front is being generated by the old LRC. The pattern is actually ending on the cold part of the 2017-2018 pattern, and something so incredibly different is developing. A small storm system is forming near California and this storm gets kicked out as something much larger develops:http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/3-640x398.pngLook at this closely; you have got to be kidding me? Is this really happening? A HUGE trough is predicted by most models to form over the western United States. This is exhibit A for the new LRC. This is something so very different. Now, we have to experience this first as it is still on models. It must actually happen first. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 2, 2018 Report Share Posted October 2, 2018 I dumped out 2.93" just from today. Plus .62" from last night and .22 from the weekend for a total of 3.77" since Saturday. Sump pump is kicking on every 30 secs now. Lot of water in ditches. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2018 It poured here last night when I went to bed. ORD set a daily rainfall record of 1.56" of rain on October 1st....what a way to open up a month. Looking forward to an active month of tracking systems. Speaking of systems, check out the track of Cat 5 Hurricane Walaka near Hawaii way out in the central PAC. The animation below shows how this storm system gets pulled north from the trough south of the Aleutians, which creates a somewhat "fujiwhara effect", and then tracks up and over the NE PAC ridge, down the west coast coastline and into the deep SW. Is this system #2 of the LRC??? It's interesting to note, that of the first few systems that have entered into the new cyclical pattern, a couple of them are of tropical origin. Is this a sign of things to come from Ma Nature??? There are signs that another tropical system may brew up in the Gulf and head north towards the middle of the month. It's going to be a busy month watching this all unfold. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 2, 2018 Report Share Posted October 2, 2018 The first few days of the new wet pattern were pretty underwhelming here in Cedar Rapids. I only picked up 0.21" late yesterday. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 2, 2018 Report Share Posted October 2, 2018 More rain fell last night. Everything is pretty much saturated. Picked up ova an inch, which makes the total more than 2" for both days. Currently cloudy and milder w temps in the 60s. Some spotty drizzle on and off. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 2, 2018 Report Share Posted October 2, 2018 The potential is there folks for a significant snowstorm early next week. Who's ready to be tracking Winterstorms again?! Man, that is a huge trough out west. 5 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 2, 2018 Report Share Posted October 2, 2018 The potential is there folks for a significant snowstorm early next week. Who's ready to be tracking Winterstorms again?! Man, that is a huge trough out west. Low's going over us. Winter cancel. What a pathetic season. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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