November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[AbbyJr]

1968-69 was probably better in the PNW than any 1800s Nino that we have record of, although I've seen 1865-66 categorized as a Nino so I guess that one might top it.

1968-69 was insane. I have no idea if it will ever be repeated. Realistically, I'd have to say no, especially under El Nino and high solar conditions, that were present during that winter. But the climate does go in cycles, so of course it could be repeated. But I have my doubts. It would epic if it was repeated again though.   

 

Phil, do you have insight on why that winter was so cold and snowy in the PNW despite the moderate El Nino and high solar?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What winter was our most epic Niño for snow/cold...68/69?

1972 had a great Dec event in a niño.

[MossMan]

1972 had a great Dec event in a niño.

Forgot about that one! Also Dec. 1998 had a very respectable event as well. (Pretty sure it was a Niño anyway)

[Phil]

Phil, do you have insight on why that winter was so cold and snowy in the PNW despite the moderate El Nino and high solar?

I’d say the strongest -NAO in recorded history played a major role.

 

This is a pattern we rarely see today..

 

[liquidsnow]

Winter canceled!

2018-2019 was always a write off.

[MossMan]

Still dumping buckets and now the power is attempting to go out.

[TT-SEA]

Still dumping buckets and now the power is attempting to go out.

Much nicer weather is close at hand now. At least there will be some sun and dry weather at times. We have earned some better weather up here.

[seattleweatherguy]

Windy here now

[TT-SEA]

Windy here now

Right on time.

[TT-SEA]

Finally getting some strong winds here in Everett.

House is rocking here now. Very loud out there.

[Requiem]

House is rocking here now. Very loud out there.

 

Jealous :/

 

Don't remember the last time we had a good windstorm.

[Requiem]

Pray to the Storm King

 

I'm tempted to. Perhaps that's what we need to get a 958 MB low barreling into Forks, WA. Will give Portland something it hasn't received in many years.

[Requiem]

You guys have us beat in the snow department big time since 2013!

 

Not terribly. You guys got some stuff in December 2013 and February 2014, and our winter totals for 2016-2017 were actually very close to equal. You guys got snow last November and more of a "white Christmas" than we did.

[Blizzard777]

Rain filling in down here and looks really heavy down in Olympia area!

Wind has picked up a little but nothing dramatic

Also got to enjoy a huge rat running south right past my dog as he was doing his thing outside. Need to check farmers almanac on that..could be good or bad weather wise

[Jesse]

Euro sure turned warm and ridgy.

[Requiem]

I love it, they said it would be a "soaker" in Portland but we have a whopping 0.03 inches. Why? I don't understand

[Phil]

Where is the cold centered on the D15 EPS?

 

You guessed it!

 

[Guest daniel1]

Where is the cold centered on the D15 EPS?

 

You guessed it!

 

Past day 15 does the pattern become favourable for another vortex disruption?

[TT-SEA]

Flood warning in effect here for the Snoqualmie River...

 

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a

* Flood Warning for
The Snoqualmie River near the Falls
* from this afternoon to late tonight.
* At 4:45 AM Sunday the flow was 14081 cfs.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood flow around 12 PM Sunday
and crest near 22500 cfs around 4 PM Sunday. The river will fall
below flood flow this evening.
* Impact...At 20000 cfs, the Snoqualmie River will cause widespread
flooding of pasture lands and roads along the river from the town
of Snoqualmie downstream through Fall City. Roads that may become
flooded include Fall City-Carnation...Tolt Hill...and Novelty Flats
Roads. This river level on the Snoqualmie corresponds roughly to a
phase 3 flood in the King County flood system.

 

 

Many places in the central and north Cascades foothills and mountains received another 2-3 inches of rain in the last 24 hours and some places are approaching 10 inches in the last 72 hours.

 

Snoqualmie Pass averages just over 13 inches of rain for November and has already received 6-7 inches.    Spada Lake which is just north of Snoqualmie Pass is over 9 inches now in the last 72 hours.    

 

Not nearly as much rain here... only about 3.5 inches for the month so far but its raining hard right now in the c-zone.    

 

Rain shadow has been quite distinct with SEA at .55 for the month.  

 

Hopefully we are done with warm AR rain now and we can start building a mountain snow pack!   An event like this is much worse when it happens after the snow pack has been established... in terms of skiing and flooding with the snow melt adding to the runoff.     

 

And this warm and wet start to November here has me very encouraged about what is coming later this month and in December.   I am glad we avoided a late October and early November cold snap.    Time for low solar to work its magic now.   

[FroYoBro]

Flood warning in effect here for the Snoqualmie River...

 

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a

 

* Flood Warning for

The Snoqualmie River near the Falls

* from this afternoon to late tonight.

* At 4:45 AM Sunday the flow was 14081 cfs.

* Forecast...The river will rise above flood flow around 12 PM Sunday

and crest near 22500 cfs around 4 PM Sunday. The river will fall

below flood flow this evening.

* Impact...At 20000 cfs, the Snoqualmie River will cause widespread

flooding of pasture lands and roads along the river from the town

of Snoqualmie downstream through Fall City. Roads that may become

flooded include Fall City-Carnation...Tolt Hill...and Novelty Flats

Roads. This river level on the Snoqualmie corresponds roughly to a

phase 3 flood in the King County flood system.

 

 

Many places in the central and north Cascades foothills and mountains received another 2-3 inches of rain in the last 24 hours and some places are approaching 10 inches in the last 72 hours.

 

Snoqualmie Pass averages just over 13 inches of rain for November and has already received 6-7 inches.    Spada Lake which is just north of Snoqualmie Pass is over 9 inches now in the last 72 hours.    

 

Not nearly as much rain here... only about 3.5 inches for the month so far but its raining hard right now in the c-zone.    

 

Rain shadow has been quite distinct with SEA at .55 for the month.  

 

Hopefully we are done with warm AR rain now and we can start building a mountain snow pack!   An event like this is much worse when happens after the snow pack has been established... in terms of skiing and flooding with the snow melt adding to the runoff.     

 

Honestly I have been watching the radar very closely this month and there is no way your location has seen 3.5 inches of rain so far. No need to overexaggerate.

[TT-SEA]

Honestly I have been watching the radar very closely this month and there is no way your location has seen 3.5 inches of rain so far. No need to overexaggerate.

 

Unbelievable.   I am sure you are baiting me here and by going through the details it will look like I am complaining.  

[TT-SEA]

Just for your reference since you are saying I am making up data... here is a cross-reference of radar and actual conditions.   

 

 

 

And a video of what is happening here...

 

https://vimeo.com/298847786

 

[Jesse]

Less than .10 at PDX overnight. Looks like that might be it for awhile.

[TT-SEA]

Less than .10 at PDX overnight. Looks like that might be it for awhile.

I was surprised how little SEA and PDX got with the main front overnight.

[Blizzard777]

.23 and winds were unimpressive in my area. 22 mph gust max registered above my roof line

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not terribly. You guys got some stuff in December 2013 and February 2014, and our winter totals for 2016-2017 were actually very close to equal. You guys got snow last November and more of a "white Christmas" than we did.

Exactly, the central and south valley haven't been as great. Hell, Corvallis has the longest active snow drought in the entire PNW.

[TT-SEA]

While I don't agree with his incessant need to constantly talk about it, 3.5 inches seems about right for his area. I'm about a half hour away from him, in the Snoqualmie Valley, and I've recorded 2.75 inches of rain since November 1. Taking a look at other nearby weather stations, it seems to range between 2.5-3.5 inches.

 

It's valid to call him out for being annoying. It's not valid to call him out for lying about totals.

And it's certainly not unusual at all to have a period like this in November here.    Happens almost every year.

[ShawniganLake]

Flood warning in effect here for the Snoqualmie River...

 

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a

 

* Flood Warning for

The Snoqualmie River near the Falls

* from this afternoon to late tonight.

* At 4:45 AM Sunday the flow was 14081 cfs.

* Forecast...The river will rise above flood flow around 12 PM Sunday

and crest near 22500 cfs around 4 PM Sunday. The river will fall

below flood flow this evening.

* Impact...At 20000 cfs, the Snoqualmie River will cause widespread

flooding of pasture lands and roads along the river from the town

of Snoqualmie downstream through Fall City. Roads that may become

flooded include Fall City-Carnation...Tolt Hill...and Novelty Flats

Roads. This river level on the Snoqualmie corresponds roughly to a

phase 3 flood in the King County flood system.

 

 

Many places in the central and north Cascades foothills and mountains received another 2-3 inches of rain in the last 24 hours and some places are approaching 10 inches in the last 72 hours.

 

Snoqualmie Pass averages just over 13 inches of rain for November and has already received 6-7 inches. Spada Lake which is just north of Snoqualmie Pass is over 9 inches now in the last 72 hours.

 

Not nearly as much rain here... only about 3.5 inches for the month so far but its raining hard right now in the c-zone.

 

Rain shadow has been quite distinct with SEA at .55 for the month.

 

Hopefully we are done with warm AR rain now and we can start building a mountain snow pack! An event like this is much worse when it happens after the snow pack has been established... in terms of skiing and flooding with the snow melt adding to the runoff.

 

And this warm and wet start to November here has me very encouraged about what is coming later this month and in December. I am glad we avoided a late October and early November cold snap. Time for low solar to work its magic now.

I’m surprised snoqualmie pass only averages 13” in November, are you sure about that one.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We've managed .14" since midnight. Feels like a flood compared to what we have been getting.

[Jesse]

While I don't agree with his incessant need to constantly talk about it, 3.5 inches seems about right for his area. I'm about a half hour away from him, in the Snoqualmie Valley, and I've recorded 2.75 inches of rain since November 1. Taking a look at other nearby weather stations, it seems to range between 2.5-3.5 inches.

 

It's valid to call him out for being annoying. It's not valid to call him out for lying about totals.

Pretty sure he was being sarcastic. Conjuring up the perfect post to trigger Tim.

[TT-SEA]

I’m surprised snoqualmie pass only averages 13” in November, are you sure about that one.

 

Snoqualmie Pass averages 13.59 inches of precip in November.   

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa7781

[TT-SEA]

Just after 7:30 and the 12Z GFS is already running.   

[MossMan]

Had another inch of rainfall yesterday into last night. It’s becoming quite apparent that I have some drainage projects to do around the property. Sorry Front Ranger, you can post all the maps you want about us slowly dying of dehydration but around western Washington the ground is at its saturation point. Runoff galore from here on out! Currently breezy, partly cloudy, and no idea on temp since my thermometer sensor quit working. Time to head up the ladder and clean out some gutters!

[Jesse]

Had another inch of rainfall yesterday into last night. It’s becoming quite apparent that I have some drainage projects to do around the property. Sorry Front Ranger, you can post all the maps you want about us slowly dying of dehydration but around western Washington the ground is at its saturation point. Runoff galore from here on out! Currently breezy, partly cloudy, and no idea on temp since my thermometer sensor quit working. Time to head up the ladder and clean out some gutters!

Anecdotes > facts

[TT-SEA]

Per SEA NWS... it was the wettest first 3 days of November in history at UIL with 5.89 inches.

[Geos]

Just for your reference since you are saying I am making up data... here is a cross-reference of radar and actual conditions.

 

 

 

And a video of what is happening here...

 

https://vimeo.com/298847786

 

Youre getting deluged today. Received another 0.26" from yesterday into the night. Sun has been out for awhile this morning in the Kenmore area.

 

Hope everyone got some extra sleep this morning!

[TT-SEA]

Youre getting deluged today. Received another 0.26" from yesterday into the night. Sun has been out for awhile this morning in the Kenmore area.

 

Hope everyone got some extra sleep this morning!

 

Yeah... c-zone stopped its southward movement and is now creeping northward again.   Almost got out of it for a little while but now its raining hard again.  

[MossMan]

Youre getting deluged today. Received another 0.26" from yesterday into the night. Sun has been out for awhile this morning in the Kenmore area.

 

Hope everyone got some extra sleep this morning!

Dogs and daughter do not get the concept of adding an hour so no...no extra sleep. None.

[Jesse]

Looks like another mostly sunny day with highs in the 60s on tap.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like another mostly sunny day with highs in the 60s on tap.

 

A nice early fall day here.