November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

EPS looks potentially active after day 10. Would be nice to see some November storminess 46A847F8-A454-4BB1-A2CE-EA43E26A834B.png

FWIW, there’s no cold outside the vortex.

 

[Jesse]

Except there’s no cold outside the vortex.

 

Alaska/Yukon look pretty cold. That’s a long way from Baffin.

[Phil]

Alaska/Yukon look pretty cold. That’s a long way from Baffin.

True, but it needs to come south too. Otherwise what’s the point?

[Jesse]

True, but it needs to come south too.

You always get so bearish when things don’t perfectly follow your script.

[Phil]

You always get so bearish when things don’t perfectly follow your script.

Warm and wet > warm and dry.

[Jesse]

Warm and wet > warm and dry.

I will agree with you there!

[Phil]

I will agree with you there!

I’m sure Tim will pop in here any second to correct this wrong and/or unacceptable opinion.

[Phil]

What I like though is that we're seeing reoccurring blocking episodes, which is leading to periodic cold intrusions into the lower 48 this fall (more coming right up, look at that progression on the 12z Euro with cold air repeatedly building up and blasting south).

 

Let the PV re-strengthen for a few weeks, and then maybe blocking will unload on everyone in December (further west, hopefully).

 

This would be the “high risk, high reward” route. But if it’s gonna matter, might as well go for broke.

[Jesse]

I’m sure Tim will pop in here any second to correct this wrong and/or unacceptable opinion.

We are basically bad people who hate joy.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TT-SEA]

Perfect illustration of persistent shadowing.   Like a dome over the Seattle area.   

 

 

 

Just a guess... but I bet people in the red areas want some more rain and people in the purple areas want a break.     

[Guest Dome Buster]

The general pattern definitely isnt following a typical nino IMO. This month is supposed to be an epic torch for the Yukon and Alaska, not happening. Perhaps Alaska can get some serious snow cover and combat the blob or at least minimize its affects. I am actually intrigued by the late November/early December time frame. Most likely our best chance at scoring IMO.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Perfect illustration of persistent shadowing. Like a dome over the Seattle area.

 

 

 

Just a guess... but I bet people in the red areas want some more rain and people in the purple areas want a break.

#NorthSouthIsTheNewNormal

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Storm train gets going in time for next weekend. By the end of the run we are in the midst of some decent troughing. Could be worse, its a carrot. 18z comes through again.

 

[Guest Dome Buster]

Storm train gets going in time for next weekend. By the end of the run we are in the midst of some decent troughing. Could be worse, its a carrot. 18z comes through again.

 

Drunk uncle in November. Love it.

[TT-SEA]

Storm train gets going in time for next weekend. By the end of the run we are in the midst of some decent troughing. Could be worse, its a carrot. 18z comes through again.

 

 

 

That would be a nice pattern.... but you need to stop teasing us with 384-hour maps!   I think its coming sooner until I look at the header.  

[Front Ranger]

Thanks to the internet, I can still keep tabs on weather all over the U.S. I just couldn't handle another winter of endless gray skies and rain, my goal is to buy some property in Colorado or Utah around the 5,000- 6,000 ft level.

 

Well, if all you're looking for is virtual weather to follow, sure. 

 

CO or most of UT would definitely be more interesting than where you're at now.

[Front Ranger]

January 1950 is a great example of that. Massive -PNA but also an active Pacific jet, with loads of precipitation in the PNW. 

 

January 1950 was dominated by -EPO: ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

 

+EPO is not the only way to get loads of precip. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wouldn't mind if it slips a few days. Going to be out of the country.

 

In 2015 most of the snow that fell that winter fell while I was in Oklahoma. 

 

In 2016 I left as a snow event was starting in the Salem area. 

[MossMan]

In 2015 most of the snow that fell that winter fell while I was in Oklahoma.

 

In 2016 I left as a snow event was starting in the Salem area.

I have never missed a snow event due to travel...which is a little sad in a way...

Actually I take that back, I missed the onset of the historic (for my area) Nov. 2006 event due to being in Olympia for a dog agility event, raining there when driving back the evening of 11/26/06, didn’t hit snow until Everett, nothing sticking to the roads until the north Marysville exit, thick snow on the roads at Smokey Point, and driving over downed alders and avoiding power lines just west of Smokey Point in heavy snow trying to get home. Continued to snow all night and all of the next day until the arctic front moved through that early evening. No power around the Lake Goodwin area for a week. That was a fun one!

[ShawniganLake]

FWIW, there’s no cold outside the vortex.

 

Would be nice, possibly a good sign going forward, to see a period of active weather. Maybe a more active Jet or some cyclogenesis happening in the NE pacific. I’d prefer to avoid locking into a pattern when our rain comes in the form of warm ARs occasionally knocking down a persistent west coast ridge.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Perfect illustration of persistent shadowing.   Like a dome over the Seattle area.   

 

 

 

Just a guess... but I bet people in the red areas want some more rain and people in the purple areas want a break.     

Honestly, it has been great!  Just enough rain but overall been fairly dry during the daylight hours... just about perfect. Great fall here so far. Loving it!!

[ShawniganLake]

Yuck, hopefully that crap stays up north where it belongs. Been loving the 70's and 80's here with full-on sun everyday...

Was beautiful and sunny here today too. Has been most of the past 3 days. Not 70s and 80s though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have never missed a snow event due to travel...which is a little sad in a way...

Actually I take that back, I missed the onset of the historic (for my area) Nov. 2006 event due to being in Olympia for a dog agility event, raining there when driving back the evening of 11/26/06, didn’t hit snow until Everett, nothing sticking to the roads until the north Marysville exit, thick snow on the roads at Smokey Point, and driving over downed alders and avoiding power lines just west of Smokey Point in heavy snow trying to get home. Continued to snow all night and all of the next day until the arctic front moved through that early evening. No power around the Lake Goodwin area for a week. That was a fun one!

 

At least in 2016 it was snowing at PDX before my flight departed (We were actually delayed a couple hours), and it snowed a couple days later in Oklahoma. Actually started snowing during my twins birthday party, so all the kids were freaking out. 

[wx_statman]

January 1950 was dominated by -EPO: ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

 

+EPO is not the only way to get loads of precip. 

 

Indeed. I guess I don't fully understand the EPO. That entire month was -EPO, quite literally. 

[Esquimalt]

Joe Bastardi is saying that the 500 mb pattern that reflects this year the most is that of 63'-64'. Crappy.

[seattleweatherguy]

Joe Bastardi is saying that the 500 mb pattern that reflects this year the most is that of 63'-64'. Crappy.

Was that an el nino year? How crappy?

[TT-SEA]

C-zone is roaring back to life over King County... absolutely dumping rain here again.  

[Deweydog]

Rained here a little bit ago.

[ShawniganLake]

Temps falling through the 40s

[Front Ranger]

Indeed. I guess I don't fully understand the EPO. That entire month was -EPO, quite literally. 

 

Hey, there's plenty of climate stuff you're way more knowledgeable about than me.

 

Essentially, -EPO is Alaskan-centered ridging with troughing downstream in the lower 48, while +EPO features troughing centered around AK and zonal flow for most the lower 48: https://blog.weatherops.com/what-is-the-eastern-pacific-oscillation

 

What matters most for the PNW getting cold is where the -EPO block is centered (if it's more towards the Yukon, troughing downstream will usually be further east) and how it's tilted. January 1950, for instance, featured very strong west-based -EPO, which combined with a strong eastern ridge tilted the trough directly over the PNW.

 

[MossMan]

Joe Bastardi is saying that the 500 mb pattern that reflects this year the most is that of 63'-64'. Crappy.

JB will show anything that remotely looks good for the east...he seems to be wrong a lot.

[Geos]

Alaska/Yukon look pretty cold. That’s a long way from Baffin.

 

Build up the cold and snow cover in that area can be beneficial down the road for us. 

[Esquimalt]

JB will show anything that remotely looks good for the east...he seems to be wrong a lot.

Yeah but its a real shame that that analog on top of 86/87 and 02/03 is being thrown around a lot this season.

[wx_statman]

Hey, there's plenty of climate stuff you're way more knowledgeable about than me.

 

Essentially, -EPO is Alaskan-centered ridging with troughing downstream in the lower 48, while +EPO features troughing centered around AK and zonal flow for most the lower 48: https://blog.weatherops.com/what-is-the-eastern-pacific-oscillation

 

What matters most for the PNW getting cold is where the -EPO block is centered (if it's more towards the Yukon, troughing downstream will usually be further east) and how it's tilted. January 1950, for instance, featured very strong west-based -EPO, which combined with a strong eastern ridge tilted the trough directly over the PNW.

 

wAq91Kqt4N.png

Makes sense. That’s a good explanation in that link as well. Thanks!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Storm train gets going in time for next weekend. By the end of the run we are in the midst of some decent troughing. Could be worse, its a carrot. 18z comes through again.

 

The FV3 has had even more to drink, as it looks even better.  Won't verify of course, but fun to look at.

 

 

[Omegaraptor]

Hopefully this is the low pressure event that gets ski season kicked off, since it's cold enough to snow in the mountains now.

[MossMan]

The FV3 has had even more to drink, as it looks even better. Won't verify of course, but fun to look at.

 

 

Thanksgiving snow! Book it!

[Guest Dome Buster]

I havent seen any good analogs actually. Strange fall.

[FroYoBro]

What was the winter of 76/77 like?