Jesse Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Fairly strong cell near I-5 between Salem and Corvallis atm. I’ve heard that area is experiencing the longest active tornado drought in the region. Ugh. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Fairly strong cell near I-5 between Salem and Corvallis atm. I’ve heard that area is experiencing the longest active tornado drought in the region.Indeed 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Wow that is some incredibly cold air on the 12z ECMWF about to dump into the Central US. Looks like it's trying to creep into the PNW as well at the end of the run. Will be interesting to see what the EPS shows. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Strong line of storms near Kelso/Longview as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 ECMWF surface maps for the 12Z run and WB are only updated through 30 hours and not moving forward now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 ECMWF surface maps for the 12Z run and WB are only updated through 30 hours and not moving forward now.The massive cold air to our north froze the run. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Looks like the EPS mean is a notch further west with the block... Control run looks to be fun one. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Looks like we go back to a wet pattern more quickly on the Euro.Canadian ensemble mean looks active too, fairly wet and seasonably cool (slightly below normal) in the long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Ridge is a lot more stationary on this run which is great to see. That low is still messing with things though. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Parts of the Portland metro area could hit 60 today. Might aid with convection, I suppose. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 How much rain did PDX get last night? Wunderground doesn’t seem to have the most accurate readings, as it said 0.03” fell yesterday. Maybe it was just counted in today’s readings. What’s a reliable source? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 How much rain did PDX get last night? Wunderground doesn’t seem to have the most accurate readings, as it said 0.03” fell yesterday. Maybe it was just counted in today’s readings. What’s a reliable source?Total of .62 so far since yesterday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 12Z EPS: 5-10 day period... 10-15 day period... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 12Z EPS: 5-10 day period... 10-15 day period... Not much improvement there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Not much improvement there.I don’t think there has been an EPS run where the 10-15 day map wasn’t warm for quite some time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 12Z EPS: 5-10 day period... 10-15 day period... Should I put the boat back in the water? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Should I put the boat back in the water?Did it snow soon after the last time you did? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I don’t think there has been an EPS run where the 10-15 day map wasn’t warm for quite some time.It's also an 850mb anomaly map, which means less and less at this point in the year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Just seen lightening on tiger summit Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 It's also an 850mb anomaly map, which means less and less at this point in the year. Warm usually means wet actually. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 It's also an 850mb anomaly map, which means less and less at this point in the year.No doubt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Until this changes, major PNW cold is unlikely. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Been awhile since we’ve seen a true Alaskan vortex pattern. This is a good reminder. It’s catastrophically terrible, despite the 500mb deception. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I don’t think there has been an EPS run where the 10-15 day map wasn’t warm for quite some time. I think Tim has been posting the exact same map over and over for weeks now. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 12Z EPS: 5-10 day period... 10-15 day period... Interesting the CPC is still calling for temps slightly below normal, with above normal precipitation for the 8-14 day period. And in their discussions, they don't seem to talk at all about the 850's. I have read there are a lot of limitations using the 850's to predict temperature, especially during the cool season, maybe that is why. And if you look at the raw data for the other models that show surface temperatures, which I wouldn't take that seriously anyway, it actually shows what would be below normal temperatures during the same time period. That might have something to do with the low resolution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I think Tim has been posting the exact same map over and over for weeks now. I am just posting what it shows for the 5-10 day and 10-15 day mean... I have been making no comments and posting the same blended periods each time which is what I was instructed to do previously. I can stop posting WB maps if that is better. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Until this changes, major PNW cold is unlikely. Screenshot_2.pngIt does change on December 4th...for a day or two! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 It's also an 850mb anomaly map, which means less and less at this point in the year. This is what I have read, you probably know a bit more, is this what you are thinking? http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/278/ LIMITATIONS Forecasting the surface high using the 850-mb temperature has been a popular forecasting technique. First I will go over the limitations of using this method: 1. Method does not work on cloudy days or days with afternoon precipitation 2. There is a tendency that temperature will be higher than predicted on days the wind is light and will be lower than predicted on days the wind is strong. This is because the low level wind effects the depth of mixing. 3. Method assumes air is mixed only between the surface and 850 mb. If the air mixes to a height significantly above or below 850 mb the technique will not work accurately. 4. Method does not account for elevation. High elevation regions have a greater chance of mixing air that is above 850 mb. 5. Daylight hours effect accuracy. There is a significant difference in daylight hours between the warm and cool season. 6. Method only works in a barotropic atmosphere. Fronts or differential advection will contaminate technique. 7. Method does not work well in regions with complex topography or near mesoscale temperature gradients such as coastal areas, very hilly areas, and areas near large lakes. The method works best in locations near sea level, in the warm season, on barotropic days, with flat topography, on moderate windy cloud-free days. If any of these conditions are not met then take that into account on the temperature prediction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Warm usually means wet actually. At the surface. If we have clear skies and offshore flow, cold anomalies and/or an inversion are now almost a given as we end November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 It's also an 850mb anomaly map, which means less and less at this point in the year. You can tell when lowland snow is unlikely with warm 850mb temps... and when the potential is there with cold 850mb temps. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Maps. Ugh. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I am just posting what it shows for the 5-10 day and 10-15 day mean... I have been making no comments and posting the same blended periods each time which is what I was instructed to do previously. I can stop posting WB maps if that is better. Joke, dude. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 At the surface. If we have clear skies and offshore flow, cold anomalies and/or an inversion are now almost a given as we end November. Obviously. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Heads up, Salmon Creek! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I wouldn't be surprised if I manage around a half inch of rain today. It's been raining quite a bit here since 2-3am. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Maybe K12 was right, .61” so far is pretty underwhelming considering the forecasts for this storm. Thought today would have more activity to beef the totals up a bit, but pretty quiet thus far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 God d*mn. Ugliest euro weeklies I’ve ever seen. Not even gonna bother posting it. I think the model might be mishandling upstream wavetrains following the Siberian high descent, but still not a pleasant thing to look at. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Heads up, Salmon Creek!That’s the location where I am at! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 It does change on December 4th...for a day or two! It will take more than that. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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