11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[snowstorm83]

Wouldn't be surprised to see watches issued this afternoon. Especially and along and south of I-80 Lincoln eastward. 

[Grizzcoat]

06Z FV3 = pound town for most of IA ; S.WI. It's being do this for sometime.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z CMC-GDPS getting more robust with precip shield-

[Money]

Nam/gfs/euro all in pretty good agreement so far

[Money]

6z Icon also took a good jump north this run. 989 L over Chicago

 

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018112206&fh=93

[Money]

Looking at the euro some of the wind gusts are in the 40-50 mph range during the snowfall

[Tom]

00z EPS staying put and has the best snows from E NE/IA into WI...DSM to MSN jack zone...someone in C IA/E IA is going to get clobbered, quite possibly even into S/C WI.  6" snow mean showing up for C IA into SW WI, 4.5" near OMA/LNK.  For Chicago, not looking good as the SLP tracks nearly overhead or just south of the city...not an ideal track.  However, the good thing is, this storm is intensifying as it tracks east which would allow for better dynamic cooling and also feature a very tightly wrapped up storm system which increases the chances of getting accumulating snows on the backside once the low passes.  

 

After seeing the EPS members, IMO, IA/WI will be the big winners.  There should easily be a band of 6-10", local 12" totals along with possible blizzard conditions.  What a fantastic storm system shaping up.  IA snow magnet this season???  Not long ago, it was the "IA Low Magnet"...things are different this season.  Climo should be thrown out the window as it clearly has not provided any value during this autumn season.  Unlike years past, look for the unexpected instead of the expected.

[Tom]

06z GEFS snow mean looks very similar to the EPS...seeing some consistency here....might be some slight shifts here and there, but those in E NE/IA/WI look good to me...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2018112206/114/snod.conus.png

 

 

FWIW, the 00z Ukie was the farthest south of the bunch....

[Stormhunter87]

Local NOAA station only going 3-4 for Omaha metro. https://www.weather.gov/oax/weatherstory

[Grizzcoat]

Wouldn't be surprised to see watches issued this afternoon. Especially and along and south of I-80 Lincoln eastward.

They could out by you guys (further W) but i would be surprised if DMX does. They will wait till Friday AM and that would still leave plenty of time to upgrade / downgrade etc.

[gosaints]

The meltdown thread will need a bump in the next couple days...

[Clinton]

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you here!  Please be safe this weekend.

[Grizzcoat]

[Money]

The meltdown thread will need a bump in the next couple days...

Gosaints!!

[Money]

12z nam pretty much identical to other models

 

Crushes eastern IA/S WI

[Clinton]

12z NAM further south looks good!

[Tom]

12z NAM further south looks good!

Your call may not be far off Clinton...that baby digs! This is going to one powerful storm.

[GDR]

When do we key the meltdowns

[Clinton]

Your call may not be far off Clinton...that baby digs! This is going to one powerful storm.

Using the LRC and factoring in the blocking this should be a blizzard that extends from KC to Chicago with the highest amounts in between.  For me personally if it could track another 50 miles further east before making it's turn I would maximize this.  I think this run of the NAM is real close.

[GDR]

Chi town special brewing on the icon

[GDR]

Kc gets rocked

[jcwxguy]

Icon is south

 

[CentralNebWeather]

I am liking the southern movement. This is not a great scenario for us in Central Nebraska as it strengthens to the east, but this would give us a little bit more than the GFS has shown so far. As with every storm, it will hit someone and leaves others disappointed. Good news is that many on here believe there are a lot more opportunities coming.

 

Happy Thanksgiving to the great people of the weatherforums. Really enjoy checking in here daily.

[Money]

Gfs way south hits Chicago

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS appears to be south also, but I am just leaving for Thanksgiving and won’t have the ability to look at past maps for a couple of hours to double check.

[james1976]

Way south. Hardly any snow in Iowa except for south and southeast

[Money]

Gem though north from its 0z run and low tracks into northern IL

[St Paul Storm]

Tom you’re gonna reel this baby in. Book it buddy.

[GDR]

Canadian stays put. It will be interesting what the euro does.

[Hawkeye]

The big upper gyre in southern Canada keeps progressing farther south and east on the GFS, ends up squashing the storm south and east.  It would really be something to have three big snow events miss me to the south in November.

[GDR]

[james1976]

Not too excited about a 1-2 event up here but its November.

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

FV3-GFS still very different than the regular GFS.  The FV3 just doesn't have that upper low to the north dipping down into the US like the GFS does, which allows Iowa to get nailed.  In fact, the FV3 has moved a bit farther north and misses CR to the nw with the best snow.

 

BTW, my posting will continue to be inconsistent and perhaps sparse because of computer issues.

[gabel23]

I would be ok with this result. So regular GFS furthest south; hopefully it's the outlier. Will be interesting seeing what the euro does. 

[GDR]

Euro has been Consistent run after run so let’s see what that does

[Stormhunter87]

I'll take fv3 run any day of the week. The normal GFS run just sucks. OAX is favouring lower amounts. Warm air hangs on to long

[Hawkeye]

Frankly, I think the FV3 is overdoing it a bit.  It's very wrapped up with a 989 mb low, several mb lower than the euro.  A bit farther south and not as strong is more likely.

[james1976]

I keep forgetting about the FV3. Interesting that it actually nudged a bit NW.

[St Paul Storm]

12z GEFS mean coming in south compared to 06z. N/C IL jackpot.