December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/17/polar-vortex-could-unleash-winter-wallop-by-january/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.a7d4362bac73

 

Good news is, we get a PV split. Bad news is, we get a PV split. Which as of now dumps the cold into Eurasia like always seems to happen. I don't think it's ever been the other way around, has it?

[gosaints]

Yuk

[Madtown]

Over put a fork in it.

[badgerwx]

Whats with the sudden pessamism?

[Madtown]

Pattern change keeps getting pushed back. Imo that continues to get pushed back like always. El nino is beginning to rage. No snow to the North and a polar vortex headed to the other side of the globe

[Madtown]

Still could turn out great, but when this pullback went from 2 to 6 days and turned into 2.5 weeks that about sums it up.

[Niko]

Good news is, we get a PV split. Bad news is, we get a PV split. Which as of now dumps the cold into Eurasia like always seems to happen. I don't think it's ever been the other way around, has it?

We will see

[hlcater]

Still could turn out great, but when this pullback went from 2 to 6 days and turned into 2.5 weeks that about sums it up.

It always ends up like this. There’s a lot of winter optimists[here], and that’s great. But it became clear in the first week of December that this pull back was going to be a lot longer than just a week which some had hoped. Then we’d have the major pattern change progged for the winter solstice, which to be fair many long range models did have a significant change around that period. However, models were too quick and too zealous with the change as they so often seem to be. Looks as if more cold will be available for systems(as well as SW flow and more systems in general) after this time period, but nothing too intense or prolonged. Just seems these warmer periods are often downcasted, especially in duration.

[East Dubzz]

Another fun winter. Boooo!

[BrianJK]

Couple more weeks... just wait

[BrianJK]

@ BrianJK, ORD has had officially 0.3" of snow so far this month...

 

Meantime, the Euro weeklies have completely flipped back towards a colder finish to the month and a frigid looking January with extensive blocking along with a NW NAMER ridge.

Thanks for looking it Tom. Was really hoping it was 0.0 to have a shot at finishing the month with zippo. December’s have been pretty pathetic around here the last few years.

[Niko]

https://s.yimg.com/lo/api/res/1.2/7YvaBMQM4hlBML6Wy3ZVWQ--/YXBwaWQ9eW15O3c9NjQwO3E9NzU7c209MQ--/http://media.zenfs.com/en-US/homerun/accuweather_297/6a4199537c97acd92f441172d5111457

[Money]

Waiting for Tom to come in here and talk about how great the future looks etc

 

Rinse wash and repeat

[badgerwx]

Waiting for Tom to come in here and talk about how great the future looks etc

 

Rinse wash and repeat

Hey now! Tom gives me hope...

[gabel23]

Tom knows what he is talking about and the LRC is gonna pay off. I stand by belief of the 50-55 day cycle this year; we are right on schedule with this trough coming up between the holiday's. My hope is that when the two week dead period; like we are in now, comes back around we have enough cold air around to keep our dang snow pack. 

[james1976]

I dont remember the first cycle of the LRC having this long dry warm stretch. It's lasted almost all of December. That being said, I know every cycle is different and degrees of cold, warm, wet, snowy are different in strength and areas. Its not gonna exactly repeat in your back yard. My knowledge of the LRC is not nearly as great as Tom's or others in here. All I'm saying is this stretch I/we are in right now I do not remember happening in Oct/Nov.
With that in mind, the models in general are leaning toward a much more stormy and colder (maybe not cold) pattern last week of Dec and into Jan. Tonight's GFS was very active. I think things will get interesting for most of us as the month moves forward. All the globals are trending that way.

[Stormhunter87]

Fv3 shifted further south again. Edit: shifted both storms further south and more cold air is being tapped.

[Minny_Weather]

If FV3 verifies I'll film myself eating a banana with the peel on.

[Stormhunter87]

If FV3 verifies I'll film myself eating a banana with the peel on.

I would love to see this run play out, Although it ends our trip three days early, and our daughters first Christmas.

[Grizzcoat]

On the potential major storm set to affect many of us in the day 8 range or so;

 

by the time someone starts a thread for it, it will have tracked further and further to the S and E putting many of us in the cross hairs.

Only to go back NW where it's currently pegged at around HR 60 - HR 72.  Just my .02 and really just having some fun.

[Tom]

On the potential major storm set to affect many of us in the day 8 range or so;

 

by the time someone starts a thread for it, it will have tracked further and further to the S and E putting many of us in the cross hairs.

Only to go back NW where it's currently pegged at around HR 60 - HR 72.  Just my .02 and really just having some fun.

Speak of the elusive SE trend, last nights 00z EPS shifted the 2" snow mean S and E which practically covers all of NE into DSM/MSN/S MI on north.  Actually, it looks very similar to the GEFS which paint a similar scenario.  I took a look at all the 51 ensemble members and there are many that would make a lot of you guys W and N of Chicago very happy.  There is a ton of available cold air in southern Canada with this set up and the blocking over the top may end up trending stronger as we get closer as has been the case this season.  The EPO is trending (-) on the Euro during this period (Bias being corrected?) which bodes well for some suppression as long as we maintain a high lat blocking.

[Grizzcoat]

If this forecast of the MJO verifies it would put most in this sub forum in favorable phases for real winter- right in the heart of it of very close to it. Figure I would post this here rather than the autumn/winter thread.

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

After studying the current pattern and the major EC storm that is about to develop over the next couple days, it is lining up with what happened back on Oct 24th-25th when Hurricane Wilma targeted N Mexico.  Remnants of Wilma tracked across the Gulf States which now is cycling through today and tomorrow which will eventually wrap up into a major Nor'Easter on the Winter Solstice.  Originally, I thought this system would have more cold air available, unfortunately, it's not happening but it will influence the overall North American pattern going forward.  Blocking will blossom near Greenland/Hudson Bay/NE Canada as it did in LRC Cycle #1.  The blocking in this general region will grow from the 21st-31st and then likely be replaced by the Polar Vortex by the tail end of the month.  I'm already seeing the signals at 10mb, interestingly enough, which models predict a lot better than at 500mb in the longer range.  Both the EURO/GFS operational models are showing a piece of the PV parking itself near or just N and E of Hudson Bay.

 

To add to the cycling pattern, I was also expecting a powerful NW PAC wave to target the N Rockies and this system is also cycling but there isn't enough blocking across S Canada to hit the northern sub which I was expecting to happen.  Instead, it is certainly going to pound the B.C. region on the 20th and eventually skirt the southern border of Canada on the 21st in a weakening state.  While we have endured model madness over the last week or so trying to depict what will happen during Christmas week, as Gary Lezak says, "there is organized chaos" if we believe in the LRC.

 

With all that in mind, we set are sights on the big storm which will happen without a doubt in my mind.  Back on Oct 31st - Nov 2nd, a deep trough dug into the AZ/NM region while a strong frontal boundary set up shop from the S Plains stretching NE into the GL's region.  Tornado watch's were hoisted for E TX/AR/NW MS as a major severe wx out break set up.  However, the models are current showing this particular storm track a lot farther NW during this cycle when comparing it to the previous one.  Let's see if the SE trend is legit this go-around as it was with storms we have tracked this autumn season.

[BrianJK]

Snowmobile clubs up in N WI meeting this evening to discuss everything, but in all likelihood, trails will not be open for Christmas. Pretty unbelievable.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS offices in Hastings and North Platte have started to mention the potential for a storm next Wed./Thurs. in their Discos.  Both said this could turn into a major storm with the Gulf wide open.  Still a week away and as we have seen with models over the last few days their will be many changes to come imo.

[james1976]

Another large system keeps showing up for the 29th timeframe and looks to track more S & E of the first one. That one may have more impacts for most of us.

[Niko]

Heavy frost outside right now w temps in the upper 20s. Winter Wonderland

[Madtown]

we got a trip up there Jan 20th...gonna have early season riding then!

[Niko]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/12/changes-afoot-for-christmas-severe.html?m=1

[Stormhunter87]

OAX mentioned the storm but they highlighted the issue. Location will determine what you get. As usual temperature is going to play a role but I imagine like the last storm going to come down to the wire.

[westMJim]

I am back in west Michigan at at this time it is party cloudy and a temperature of 35° As of today the total snow fall here at Grand Rapids for December is only 1.9"  Grand Rapids is on track for one of its least snowy Decembers in recorded history. The least amount of snow fall for any December was 1.0" in 2014. in 10 place in 5.1" in 1902 the most is 59.2" in 2000 the average December snow fall is 21.1"

[Stacsh]

I am back in west Michigan at at this time it is party cloudy and a temperature of 35° As of today the total snow fall here at Grand Rapids for December is only 1.9"  Grand Rapids is on track for one of its least snowy Decembers in recorded history. The least amount of snow fall for any December was 1.0" in 2014. in 10 place in 5.1" in 1902 the most is 59.2" in 2000 the average December snow fall is 21.1"

 

I'm thinking this is looking like a top ten least snowiest.  Possibly picking up a couple inches between now and the New Year.  Of course LES is back in the picture (albeit light).  So you never know.  

Welcome Back!

[westMJim]

Here is some weather history for Grand Rapids,MI for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day The average H/L on the 24th is 33/21 the record high is 59 set in 2015 the record low is -9 in 1944 the coldest maximum is 7 in 1983 the most snow to fall on Christmas eve day was 7" in 1993 the most snow on the ground was 19" in 1951 there was 17" on the ground in 2008.

For Christmas day the average H/L is 32/21 the record high is 65° set in 1982 the record low is -3 set in 1983 the coldest maximum is 10° set in 1983 the most snow it fall on Christmas day is 7.0" just last year the most snow on the ground was 22" in 1951 in 2008 there was 16" on the ground.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Icon has the storm next Wednesday/Thursday coming out of Colorado with the low going across Kansas with a snow shield over Nebraska.  Waiting to see where the CMC and GFS and GFS FV3 place a storm.  I think there will be a gradient between rain, mix and snow somewhere across Nebraska.

[Grizzcoat]

12Z GFS starting to throw off speed pitches--- way E this run with Low right over DSM at HR 183.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS also brings the low across Kansas.  Just looked out my window, it is 40 degrees and raining on Dec. 19th.

[Stormhunter87]

GFS is definitely cuting that rain snow line over Omaha. Icon is agreeing. Hmmm would love to see the euro agree but waiting on the nam at this point. Edit: icon doesn't see as a big storm though.

[St Paul Storm]

That 1040mb high in Saskatchewan really doing wonders on the 12z GFS. Total game changer.

[james1976]

Blocking starting to show?

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS puts down a deep snow from Northwest Kansas, through Nebraska, Northwest Iowa, Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin.  Lock it in.