December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

I think I might be going blind, guys.

[Deweydog]

I think I might be going blind, guys.

Going blind?

[weatherfan2012]

Eh, it’s a mixed bag. Except for those 4-5 horrific summer months, it’s actually pretty tame here.

We don’t get extreme cold, and big tornadoes/large hail are very rare (lots of small EF1 type stuff & pea to marble sized hail, but the major stuff is very infrequent).

Big blizzards only happen once every 2-3 years, with long stretches of mediocre snowfall in between. And those mediocre stretches can be brutal (from Feb 2011 to Nov 2013, we only saw 5.7” of snow..talk about pathetic).

yes its a very feast and famine type of climate here which at times I wonder how alot even can make winter outlooks in our reagion because predicting every winter here is a crapshoot at best alot of things can complicate the outlooks in this area. I seen years where most outlooks went with full on snow and cold and it ended up the exact opposite warm and snowless while other years there were outlooks that went warm and snowless and we had cold and record snow

[Jesse]

Springlike day on tap down here. Sunny and mid-upper 50s.

[Deweydog]

Gonna be dew for a cool down at some point. Beware!

[Front Ranger]

Springlike day on tap down here. Sunny and mid-upper 50s.

 

MLK Day sure got here fast this time.

[Phil]

12z GFS says we quickly go into a more cool and active pattern after a little ridging around the solistice. To good too be true?

The consolidated jet stuff could make a brief return during the last week of December, when waves begin breaking sequentially upstream as the PV unravels.

 

But the big jet/Alaska-GOA vortex regime will undergo a general weakening trend after mid-December, with a large GOA/EPO ridge eventually establishing itself there during early/mid January.

 

Actually looks similar to January 2013 (both in terms of the PV breakdown/SSW and the progression of the intraseasonal tropical forcing).

[Front Ranger]

Yes, it's a very feast or famine type of climate here. At times I wonder how anyone can even make winter outlooks in our region, since predicting every winter here is a crap shoot at best. A lot of things can complicate the outlooks in this area. I have seen years where most outlooks went with full on snow and cold, and it ended up the exact opposite - warm and snow less. While other years there were outlooks that went warm and snow less and we had cold and record snow. 

 

Fixed.

[ShawniganLake]

Meh!

 

[Phil]

yes its a very feast and famine type of climate here which at times I wonder how alot even can make winter outlooks in our reagion because predicting every winter here is a crapshoot at best alot of things can complicate the outlooks in this area. I seen years where most outlooks went with full on snow and cold and it ended up the exact opposite warm and snowless while other years there were outlooks that went warm and snowless and we had cold and record snow

Last OT post, but a little known fact is that, with the exception of summer downbursts, it’s actually the NW windstorms in Feb-Apr that cause the majority of the weather-related issues here. More than double snow, ice, and flooding issues combined.

 

IAD averages 5-6 wind events between 50-80mph every winter/spring, not including summer storms. That’s rough on infrastructure.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z GEFS looks good for the last week of December. Not a finished product but it's a start.

 

[Jesse]

Meh!

 

7AD53CEE-9A6E-47E6-9C8F-05972523E171.png

For a second I thought this was a scaled back rainfall map. Scared me!

[ShawniganLake]

For a second I thought this was a scaled back rainfall map. Scared me!

Haha. Nope. Gusts to 100mph along the coast of Vancouver Island. Fairly run of the mill inland

[Phil]

[ShawniganLake]

[Jesse]

Haha. Nope. Gusts to 100mph along the coast of Vancouver Island. Fairly run of the mill inland

Low further north or just not a great track? I haven’t had a chance to view the 12z Euro yet.

[Jesse]

Hmmmm....trending wetter in the short to mid range.

 

[Timmy]

The euro by the 21st is looking a lot more nw flow-ish

[Jesse]

The euro by the 21st is looking a lot more nw flow-ish

20 years ago it would have been by the 1st.

[Timmy]

20 years ago it would have been by the 1st.

* 20 days ago

[Front Ranger]

[Front Ranger]

The euro by the 21st is looking a lot more nw flow-ish

 

It appears to be a mediocre compromise between the GFS and CMC.

[ShawniganLake]

For the guy always asking for the Tuesday wind maps

 

[Phil]

 

Very little has changed about this place in years. A few additions and subtractions to a rotating cast of characters, talking about the same sort of stuff season after season, with new angles on familiar topics occasionally surfacing.

Your insatiable desire to start arguments certainly hasn’t changed.

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

I’m just glad to see the Euro and GFS both come around to a wetter and more active short to mid range. We can worry about the ever changing details of the stuff beyond day 7 later.

[Jesse]

East winds picking up nicely. Will be interesting to see if they hold down or boost temps today.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

In the upper 40s and will easily hit 50 again today.

 

At least it looks like there will be some active weather and some rain over the next week. Better than endless shitt split flow.

[Front Ranger]

Your insatiable desire to start arguments certainly hasn’t changed.

 

I have no fear of controversy.

 

But I have matured some over the years. I think most of us have (you included)...except Dewey, who was more mature than any of us can ever hope to be by the age of 4.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the warm front rain shield is lifting north now... it has stopped raining here.

 

This is good news for Snoqualmie Pass because the snow turned to rain earlier before it ended.    No precipitation is better than rain for skiing... as my son has told me many times.

[Requiem]

Got a High Wind Watch for Everett. NWS calling for 40mph sustained and gusts to 60mph.

 

First decent wind event for me since the August 2015 storm.

Jealous!

[Requiem]

Huh, strange. GFS and NAM show stronger winds in PDX (40-50) than in Seattle proper. EURO isn’t buying yet. Both show gusts anywhere from 45-55 on Tuesday.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is improved again... here is the 10-15 day period.

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

12Z EPS is improved again... here is the 10-15 day period.

 

 

Not Even sure what to think of that. Such a muted signal. Everything north of 50 looks like a ridge.

[Phil]

Not Even sure what to think of that. Such a muted signal. Everything north of 50 looks like a ridge.

Gonna take a little while to rebuild the Arctic cold on this side of the pole (probably won’t happen until we complete the SSW cycle). The +EPO/Pacific jet is obliterating every ounce of legitimate cold in the Western Hemisphere.

[Deweydog]

Poor guy is always one line away from something insightful.

But the (forest) fire is so delightful.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Gonna take a little while to rebuild the Arctic cold on this side of the pole (probably won’t happen until we complete the SSW cycle). The +EPO/Pacific jet is obliterating every ounce of legitimate cold in the Western Hemisphere.

 

Any guesses as to the main event with the SSW? Next week, week after? I like hearing your analyses and guesses on this stuff.

[Timmy Supercell]

Now that we've gone through a list of "late start" lowland winters, I'd like to see a similar list but showing "late starts" for the mountains and see which seasons were still good ones. I bet it's not uncommon for strong ones to start in January.

 

Reason I bring this up because I see a few folks already worrying that the cascades might have a bad season. I think it's a little early to begin worrying. I'd give it 3-4 more weeks.

[Bryant]

Anymore OT posts will result in a ban.

Would rather read some off topic facts than have to scroll past Tims continued efforts to prove how much rain he gets, even after being warned.

 

Kind of reminds me of my 2 year old daughter... I can tell her not to do something, but she will continue to push the boundaries if I don't actually enforce a punishment.

[Front Ranger]

But the (forest) fire is so delightful.

 

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