January 2019 Observations and Discussion

[St Paul Storm]

I see a lot of ice fishermen on the lake this afternoon. But the MN DNR is advising people to stay off all lakes due to unstable ice conditions. There are even some reports of open ice on area lakes. Welcome to early January.

[westMJim]

I had a high of 50 here at my house it looks like the official high for Grand Rapids will be 47° at this time I have a temperature of 47 with clear skies.

[westMJim]

I see a lot of ice fishermen on the lake this afternoon. But the MN DNR is advising people to stay off all lakes due to unstable ice conditions. There are even some reports of open ice on area lakes. Welcome to early January.

I have a pond on my walking route and that pond (I think it might be 3ft deep) has open water. I might be wrong but I can not recall the pond being ice free any time in January.  Any way I would not be on any lake around here ice fishing so far this winter,

[Tom]

 Just got finished taking mine down and it is absolutely gorgeous out there - feels like spring when you're in the sun.  And yeah, I agree that it never really felt festive this year even with the decorations and lights.

 

Looking forward to tomorrows game.

After I got back from the gym this morning, literally like clock work, I go outside to throw out the garbage and my neighbors began taking down the holiday decorations.  I think it was in everyone's mind to take them down this weekend.  It feels like early Spring out there, esp when the wind is calm and your facing the sun.  Quite a warm day in early January.

[Tony]

Took down my decorations and it's really nice out. I can handle this type of weather if we are not goung to have any snow. Cold and bone dry would really suck so this is perfect.

[Niko]

Absolutely gorgeous day w temps in the 50s w plentiful sunshine. As I was coming home from the gym today, I saw people grilling in my subdivision. How crazy is that. Not a typical January, that's for sure. Also, golfers were in full force as well.

[james1976]

Yup hit 50 here too. Time to fire up the grill......again lol.

[Niko]

Just a gorgeous mild day here! Currently 54° with sunshine

Doesn't happen too often.....might as well enjoy it. Same here, sunshine and temps in the low 50s.

[Niko]

Snowstorm for Athens, Greece Monday afternoon and into the evening w couple of inches of snow expected w lows in the upper 20s.. For Athens, that's a lot, given it does not snow there every Winter. Crazy!

[jaster220]

After I got back from the gym this morning, literally like clock work, I go outside to throw out the garbage and my neighbors began taking down the holiday decorations.  I think it was in everyone's mind to take them down this weekend.  It feels like early Spring out there, esp when the wind is calm and your facing the sun.  Quite a warm day in early January.

 

Under ideal conditions, my decorations were down and stored in record time. First time hearing motorcycles rumbling thru town! Was only in the 40's here but extremely pleasant. Even got a jump on spring yard work, lol

[Grizzcoat]

I'm really getting excited about the chances of a major storm in the KC area on the 12th.  In today blog by Gary Lezak he shows the 12z ICON and says if fits the LRC almost perfectly. 

Still excited?? The LRC is a joke this winter.

[jaster220]

(IF it holds) next weekend would easily be the most wintery since November ended. Gives mby ~3" fwiw

 

[jaster220]

Most models give the UP of Mich quite a snowy week. And in a bit of a twist, it's actually the southern half that scores best. Easily 12+ most if not all areas. That should help their winter economy up there.

[Tom]

I'm seeing some notable trends among the models and ensembles for next Fri/Sat period in and around the MW/GL's region.  There is an increasingly noteworthy wintry look showing up among the GEFS ensemble members.  Lot's of blocking setting up shop just north of the GL's seeding a lot of cold air along with a clipper and possible southern energy which may transport moisture up north into the clipper tracking across the MW/GL's.  The Euro is rather weak, but it usually is at this range with clippers, however, we have the UKIE also showing this system and pulling up moisture from the south as the system pivots east.  Something to watch over the next few days to see if it develops into something.

 

On a side note, depending on the track of this system, western shores of LM may be in a good position for a long duration LES/Lehs event.  The blocking setting up just north of the GL's is in an ideal position and I've seen this set up work wonders in the past.  After looking at the individual EPS members, there are many members hinting at what I mentioned above regarding to the Ukie and GEFS members.  Looks encouraging....as mentioned before, models are having a devil of a time with all the blocking taking place this week.

[Tom]

Before I head out to the gym this morning, I'd like to just show you this animation off the GEFS 10mb height animation.  In fact, both the Euro/GFS op runs are suggesting a very similar look at 10mb during the Day 7-10 period.  Needless to say, the North American piece of the Polar Vortex ain't going anywhere anytime soon.  All I gotta say, look for the models to trend bolder with the cold as blocking is digested and the effects of the SSW event finally propagate downward into the lower levels of the atmosphere.

 

 

BTW, for those near the MW/GL's region, has your grid temps been lowered starting Wed thru the weekend???  My temps are now in the mid/upper 20's for Wed/Thu.  Big miss on the models just a few days ago.  Not only that, but starting to see a chance of snow in the forecast for Fri/Sat.  Things are looking up.

[Niko]

Sunny currently w temps in the low 30s. Some ice and snow late tanite going ova to rain on Monday w temps in the 40s.

 

 

Late next week looks interesting, finally. Hope it holds together.

[Clinton]

Still excited?? The LRC is a joke this winter.

Yes, I will be willing to eat crow if this doesn't happen.  Lets see if the models begin handling the blocking better over the next day or so.

[jlp]

Bring on the clippers! They usually produce, at least in SE WI.  

[jaster220]

APX taking a page from GRR's play book. 6-10+ gets you a WWA. Add in 40 mph winds no less. Wish I was up there to see it tbh

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Gaylord MI1100 AM EST Sun Jan 6 2019MIZ008-015-070000-/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.190107T1000Z-190108T0000Z/Chippewa-Mackinac-Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace1100 AM EST Sun Jan 6 2019...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PMEST MONDAY...* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches,  with locally higher amounts possible.* WHERE...Chippewa and Mackinac Counties.* WHEN...From 5 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,  including during the morning commute on Monday. Winds gusting  as high as 40 mph will cause patchy blowing and drifting snow.  Isolated power outages are also possible.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet orfreezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slipperyroads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.&&$$

[Niko]

If the weekend system does not materialize, then, it is looking bone dry right through middle of next wk..

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

A much more wintry pattern will
then emerge as amplified troughing takes residence for the late week
period.

 

We will have to wait and see how that goes. The way this Winter has been shaping up, cannot trust anyone. Just let Ma Nature play it out. Eventually, a snowstorm will happen.

[bud2380]

Gfs has a healthy clipper for Friday into Saturday for much of the region. Other models are picking up on it as well.

[OKwx2k4]

See ya'll in February. Goodness, this is every hybrid-blend list of my worst winter nightmares.

 

Positive notes; low heating bill, drought is over, outdoor activities in January actually aren't bad and can be quite fun when its 60°.

[Niko]

Another warm-up for early next week ( the week of January 14-16th) as temps rise into the 40s w more rain w it ending as flurries or snowshowers followed by colder, drier air.

[Niko]

Gorgeous day today w temps in the upper 30s. After leaving the gym, I decided to stop for ice cream.

[Niko]

See ya'll in February. Goodness, this is every hybrid-blend list of my worst winter nightmares.

 

Positive notes; low heating bill, drought is over, outdoor activities in January actually aren't bad and can be quite fun when its 60°.

True N true ....especially up here in SMI.

[james1976]

18z GFS way north and weak with the fri-sat clipper

[OKwx2k4]

In my very humble opinion, it was clear as the winter pattern was setting up this fall that there would be too much ridging the interior West to have a truly solid winter in the middle part of the country. For all the talk of global telecoomections and whatnot, that persistent ridge was staring us right in the face. Undoubtedly it will break down on occasion, but it seems to be a primary feature this winter. I think most of us need to stop looking for parts of the pattern that match our hopes and remember to take into account the parts that don’t. That includes me. I tried to find reasons to discount that ridge. I should have believed in what was in front of me.

I'll give you this.

 

I should've given pause when we switched to +TNH and found the lingering question of whether Niño would flare again or not still hanging.

 

I honestly thought it was spent by October. I was obviously proven wrong. +TNH (or TNA Tropical North American) pattern with east based El Nino gives ridging over the central CONUS. (As you said) When the tropics are too strong, AO or PV will be on the other side of the globe regardless.

 

I'll catch it next time...live and learn. 4 years in a row of this nonsense. You've got to be kidding me. Lol.

[Andie]

See ya'll in February. Goodness, this is every hybrid-blend list of my worst winter nightmares.

Positive notes; low heating bill, drought is over, outdoor activities in January actually aren't bad and can be quite fun when its 60°.

Considering my heat pump is giving me fits this winter, I'm okay with 60's.

Lower bills are really fine with me. I'm tired of the electric co. Doing a stick-up on my budget monthly- summer and winter.

[Nelson]

In my very humble opinion, it was clear as the winter pattern was setting up this fall that there would be too much ridging the interior West to have a truly solid winter in the middle part of the country. For all the talk of global telecoomections and whatnot, that persistent ridge was staring us right in the face. Undoubtedly it will break down on occasion, but it seems to be a primary feature this winter. I think most of us need to stop looking for parts of the pattern that match our hopes and remember to take into account the parts that don’t. That includes me. I tried to find reasons to discount that ridge. I should have believed in what was in front of me.

 

The ridge out west has been prominent for several years now. Like you said, it will break down from time to time, but seems like it's going to be there until we get a major shift in the pattern. 

[WBadgersW]

Looks like I'm not missing much of anything. I've been unplugged for the past 2 weeks. Has Milwaukee seen any 4"+ snowfalls yet?

[VMB443]

Looks like I'm not missing much of anything. I've been unplugged for the past 2 weeks. Has Milwaukee seen any 4"+ snowfalls yet?

Nope. I’m not sure if we have much more than 4” over the entire winter so far.

 

*Edit* Officially at 8” for the entire season. Pitiful.

[Stormhunter87]

Super quiet winter and looks that way for a bit, but Europe is seeing some crazy snowfall.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I keep hoping things will change but nothing looks good through the middle of the month. I can't imagine two solid winter months doing absolutely nothing here lol.

[Minny_Weather]

Super quiet winter and looks that way for a bit, but Europe is seeing some crazy snowfall.

Oh so that's why.

[Stormhunter87]

Oh so that's why.

Probably lol. Just read a report. 7ft in 7 days in the Alps. Athens got a few inches. Heavy snowfall in Turkey and finally Iran is reporting heavy snowfall in a few regions.

[Minny_Weather]

It is 2241 on January 6 and it is 48.4°F. Even some nights in May aren't this warm.

[jaster220]

APX taking a page from GRR's play book. 6-10+ gets you a WWA. Add in 40 mph winds no less. Wish I was up there to see it tbh

 

Glad to see they upgraded most of E UP as the models were painting storm amts the past couple days. Even down here in Marshall the winds are whipping up and it feels stormy with an actual WC. Can hardly stand it after all the spring wx lately.

 

brrr..  Wind Chill  27°F (-3°C)

[jaster220]

Super quiet winter and looks that way for a bit, but Europe is seeing some crazy snowfall.

 

I posted that when a SSWE shoves everything away from N America, winter will be slim pickens.

 

And yep, my daughter spent the past two weeks vacationing in Russia and said it was cold and non-stop snow. It was a lot of work just to get around since snow removal is not a thing there like it is here. She's hoping for spring wx here lol. Told her she just missed two 50-n-sunny days but warm two more days if a bit rainy. 

[Clinton]

Very nice trend on the models this morning, most are showing the storm on the 12th amd the 6z GFS has some very cold air.  The LRC looks to be right on schedule for the middle of the month.