January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah, I was just about to post it.

 

The 06z GFS-FV3 trended in the right direction in the long range. Here is what it's operational run shows.

 

Gigantic potential ahead! Like what Snow_wizard said yesterday, the SSW might finally be coming home to roost!

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2019010706/360/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2019010706/360/850th_nb.na.png

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2019010706/384/850th_nb.na.png

Hr384. 850mb temps are above freezing and block is about to be undercut.

[Andrew.]

Crashes all over the west side of Portland this morning from frozen roads.

 

[Kayla]

This winter so far has not felt like an El Nino but more like a La Niña with so much northwest flow.

 

Pretty typical El Niño so far along the West Coast. Way too much split flow for a La Niña.

[ShawniganLake]

28F and snowless here this morning. This is the latest I can ever remember going into the season without at least seeing a trace of snow.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah...it's not only the lack of cold and snow, but the horrible gloom.  It just gets to me way more than it used to.  I need a more continental climate.

 

 

At least it has made our gloomy climate much more tolerable.

 

 

Not sunny enough for me!

 

 

I assume you are referencing (and mocking) Jim's post from the last... he is the only one who has mentioned "horrible gloom" lately.    

[Blizzard777]

You guys got the wind followed by a little bit of snow. We are getting a bit of both here this morning!

 

https://vimeo.com/309896963

Beautiful and exhilarating!!!

On another note one of my neighbors was from that area and never wants to see those conditions again

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS delays the system tomorrow even more... precip does not start until the afternoon in Seattle.    

 

And it also shows a more definitive dry period coming up later this week and weekend like the 00Z ECMWF showed.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hr 276 has potential.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hr 276 has potential.

 

So rare for a low to take that track and there is no cold air lol.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Mid 30s for the central and s valley this morning.

[Front Ranger]

I am not sure if Jesse is in denial about how much wetter it has been in the northern half of western WA and southern BC... or if he is just jealous.

 

We can certainly recognize that its been dry in SW WA and Oregon... but he refuses to recognize how wet it has been farther north.    And he lashes out at anyone reporting the wet conditions.

 

Depends on what period you want to cherry pick. The past couple months really have not been that much wetter for most of WA. And this is the wettest period of the year.

 

[TT-SEA]

Depends on what period you want to cherry pick. The past couple months really have not been that much wetter for most of WA. And this is the wettest period of the year.

 

60dPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

 

Specifically picked the last month because Randy was talking about how wet its been and how saturated the ground is now.

 

We are aware that November and early December was a little below normal.     Seems like you are just cherry picking now.  

[MossMan]

Had a quick hitting ice pellet/snow shower about an hour ago.

[MossMan]

That person on the left has some serious bell bottoms... I am betting early to mid 1970s.

Good point!

[jcmcgaffey]

Pretty typical El Niño so far along the West Coast. Way too much split flow for a La Niña.

I agree but it also hasn’t felt like typical past ninos. I feel like there was a lot more ridging and warmer temps. I know it has been drier in a lot of areas but that has been more due to systems consistently missing those locations rather than region wide ridging.

[Jesse]

I agree but it also hasn’t felt like typical past ninos. I feel like there was a lot more ridging and warmer temps. I know it has been drier in a lot of areas but that has been more due to systems consistently missing those locations rather than region wide ridging.

There hasn’t been constant region wide ridging but there has definitely been lots of spit flow, which in many ways is even more of a niño hallmark.

[TT-SEA]

WRCC data has finally finished updating for 2018.  

 

It was significantly wetter than normal for the year in the area that cradles and maximizes upslope with NW flow from my area northward to the Canadian border.

 

Some examples of precip anomalies for the year from north to south:

 

Sedro Wolley   +6.48

 

Monroe   +8.06

 

Tolt Reservoir   +15.97

 

Snoqualmie Falls   +2.15

 

Cedar Lake (closest station to my house)    +5.63

 

 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

 

 

I agree but it also hasn’t felt like typical past ninos. I feel like there was a lot more ridging and warmer temps. I know it has been drier in a lot of areas but that has been more due to systems consistently missing those locations rather than region wide ridging.

It has been warm, and ridging usually doesn't dominate until mid to late January. El Ninos are often very wet the first part of winter. It was in 2015.

[Jesse]

Depends on what period you want to cherry pick. The past couple months really have not been that much wetter for most of WA. And this is the wettest period of the year.

 

60dPNormWRCC-NW.png

Hope the soil can get a break!

[jcmcgaffey]

There hasn’t been region wide ridging but there has definitely been lots of spit flow, which in many ways is even more of a niño hallmark.

. Thats true. We have had ridging every month it just doesn’t feel like it and I am probably having short term memeory loss on it already. I’m used to seeing a period at some point of clear and cold weather which I feel we havent had yet. Ya we have had a day or two here and there but not for more than a couple days. I know this isn’t scientific at all but it feels like we have a heavy deluge of rain for a few days then consistent split flow for a week or so then another deluge with a dry day here and there in between systems. I guess it is pretty typical winter weather especially considering a weak nino.

[Jesse]

12z GFS sure rips apart every system in the short to mid range. At least the long range looks wetter. Need to catch up some of the building regional rain year deficits.

[TT-SEA]

Hope the soil can get a break!

 

 

I am actually hoping 2019 will be the first drier than normal year in more than half a decade up here (in the area highlighted on map above).    It has to happen at some point.  

[Jesse]

. Thats true. We have had ridging every month it just doesn’t feel like it and I am probably having short term memeory loss on it already. I’m used to seeing a period at some point of clear and cold weather which I feel we havent had yet. Ya we have had a day or two here and there but not for more than a couple days. I know this isn’t scientific at all but it feels like we have a heavy deluge of rain for a few days then consistent split flow for a week or so then another deluge with a dry day here and there in between systems. I guess it is pretty typical winter weather especially considering a weak nino.

Just looking at the rain year so far (10/1 to present) there was a very persistent period of dry weather in mid-October, then again in mid November then again in early December. Each of those lasted about 7-10 days and now it looks like we may be heading into another several day dry break. Which is why 95% of Oregon and Washington have deficits for the rain year to date and will likely keep falling behind.

[Jesse]

Pretty dry water year so far for Oregon and Washington outside of the Olympic peninsula and western North Cascades. Even the wide majority of the populated I-5 corridor between Seattle and Bellingham has been drier than average.

 

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS sure rips apart every system in the short to mid range. At least the long range looks wetter. Need to catch up some of the building regional rain year deficits.

 

 

Just say SW WA and Oregon.    That is where there are deficits.  

 

Its been normal or wetter than normal for much of the northern half of western WA and southern BC for the water year.

 

And even SEA has been almost perfectly normal since October 1st...

 

 

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pretty dry water year so far for Oregon and Washington outside of the Olympic peninsula and western North Cascades. Even the wide majority of the populated I-5 corridor between Seattle and Bellingham has been drier than average.

 

ED1FF461-A255-4E13-9A79-B7018F229572.png

The Okanogan  highlands are very dry!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As far as temps go it could be worse. Precip looks sparse at best.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[TT-SEA]

Bellingham is just .29 below normal for the water year... Seattle is .11 above normal.     Its been very close to normal for the northern half of western WA.     

 

The WRCC maps seem to be driven to scare certain people... they skew drier than reality.    

 

And then you have places like KUIL which is already +10.48 inches for the water year.

 

Looks like SW and WA and Oregon could use more precip though.   What else is new.  

[Front Ranger]

Bellingham is just .29 below normal for the water year... Seattle is .11 above normal.     Its been very normal for the northern half of western WA.  

 

The WRCC maps seem to be driven to scare certain people... the skew drier than reality.    

 

And then you have places like KUIL which is already +10.48 inches for the water year.

 

No, they just take into account more than two stations. They don't cherry pick ones to push a certain narrative. 

[TT-SEA]

No, they just take into account more than two stations. They don't cherry pick ones to push a certain narrative.

Bullsh#t Jared.

 

Randy said the ground was really wet... Jesse mocked him as usual... I posted the map showing it's been wetter than normal up here for the last month... you accused me of a pushing a narrative and then went back 2 months. Why? I was backing up Randy.

 

I went through every WRCC station in my area and northward. I know the exact data that they use.

 

Just stop with your reflexive need to counter everything I say. I am not reporting anything wrong or cherry picking.

 

I am trying to recognize both realities (wet and dry) instead of lumping everywhere together... because that does NOT work right now.

[TT-SEA]

I think Jesse is just jealous.

 

We should all be recognizing both the wet and dry areas... its the reality.  

 

Or the people in the northern half of western WA and southern BC will just keep saying its really wet... and not give a flying crap what is happening in SW WA and Oregon.     

[Omegaraptor]

-3.38” for the water year in Portland and -0.63” for 2019.

 

-6.71” for the water year in Hillsboro and -1.00” for 2019.

[Jesse]

-3.38” for the water year in Portland and -0.63” for 2019.

 

-6.71” for the water year in Hillsboro and -1.00” for 2019.

Wow. Pretty sad state of things. I would like to think we could score a wetter spring this year, it has been awhile. Although niño climo doesn’t necessarily favor that, sadly.

[TT-SEA]

-3.38” for the water year in Portland and -0.63” for 2019.

 

-6.71” for the water year in Hillsboro and -1.00” for 2019.

 

Thanks.   I like actual stats... highlights the difference and its interesting.

 

SEA is +.11 for the water year and PDX is -3.38

 

And its even drier to the south.

 

What we need is a pattern that focuses heavy rain on SW WA and Oregon.   The folks to the north in BC and on the Olympic Peninsula are actually waterlogged.    And its been pretty much normal for the rest of the northern half of western WA.    

[ShawniganLake]

Tomorrow is looking pretty interesting up here again. We will see

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is a little more bullish with lowland snow tomorrow:

 

[TT-SEA]

Tomorrow is looking pretty interesting up here again. We will see

 

A18BF5B6-2BAF-4735-85DA-847E9F6510EB.png

 

 

We posted the same map simultaneously.  

[Geos]

Tomorrow is looking pretty interesting up here again. We will see

A18BF5B6-2BAF-4735-85DA-847E9F6510EB.png

There is snow hope for you still in the near term!

 

Hanging at 38° here with mostly cloudy skies.

[Front Ranger]

Bullsh#t Jared.

 

Randy said the ground was really wet... Jesse mocked him as usual... I posted the map showing it's been wetter than normal up here for the last month... you accused me of a pushing a narrative and then went back 2 months. Why? I was backing up Randy.

 

I went through every WRCC station in my area and northward. I know the exact data that they use.

 

Just stop with your reflexive need to counter everything I say. I am not reporting anything wrong or cherry picking.

 

I am trying to recognize both realities (wet and dry) instead of lumping everywhere together... because that does NOT work right now.

 

You always start posting stats as a wet period is ending, and a drier one is about to begin. Like clockwork.

 

Works better for the narrative that way. 

 

But no, it's not BS for me to point out that the WRCC maps incorporate more than two stations.

[ShawniganLake]

There is snow hope for you still in the near term!

Hanging at 38° here with mostly cloudy skies.

Clear skies and 31F here. The fact that we will likely see clear skies this evening will probably help us start off pretty cold tomorrow morning