January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Something backdoor isn’t out of the question.

That's what she said after a few drinks.

[Requiem]

Fred put together some nice archives from the old forum. I think the link is somewhere on the front page.

 

Thank you! I have some reading to do.

[Jesse]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think something similar to 2/12/95 is probably our ceiling. Which was a nice event. 

[Deweydog]

I think something similar to 2/12/95 is probably our ceiling. Which was a nice event.

How lame would that be.... Ugh.

[BLI snowman]

Something backdoor isn’t out of the question.

 

Late February 2003 is probably about the magnitude of what we could realistically hope for at this point. Blocking should overwhelmingly favor the East from here on out.

[Deweydog]

It never is.

Then cheer up!!!

[Jesse]

Late February 2003 is probably about the magnitude of what we could realistically hope for at this point. Blocking should overwhelmingly favor the East from here on out.

Funny that was the first event I thought of.

[Deweydog]

Late February 2003 is probably about the magnitude of what we could realistically hope for at this point. Blocking should overwhelmingly favor the East from here on out.

Early February that year tried pretty hard too.

[BLI snowman]

BS.

 

This upcoming pattern is ripe for retrogression. And early February is a classic time to score here... and ENSO is close to neutral now. Its coming and I will remind you of this in 3 weeks.

 

Jesse's point about climo precedent is not BS. Unless you think 100+ years of winter weather patterns in the region mean nothing.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Backdoor.

[Jesse]

Jesse's point about climo precedent is not BS. Unless you think 100+ years of winter weather patterns in the region mean nothing.

Dude, I think you need to cheer up.

[Deweydog]

That's what she said after a few drinks.

Haha! I just got this! You’re referencing anal intercoursing!

[TT-SEA]

Jesse's point about climo precedent is not BS. Unless you think 100+ years of winter weather patterns in the region mean nothing.

Climo is out the window! Had you not heard??

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Late February 2003 is probably about the magnitude of what we could realistically hope for at this point. Blocking should overwhelmingly favor the East from here on out.

 

UGH II

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I mean, the people in Eastern Oregon and Washington sure do matter, drought is bad for agriculture. Yes, a lot of it is still "abnormally dry" but if we go into the spring and summer like this it could prove bad. Do remember that even with the very wet 2016-2017 fall/winter we still had a ridiculously dry summer enough to push us into moderate/severe drought category.

Eastern Washington agriculture depends on irrigation, not rain, so droughts don't matter as much.   That is why dams are built, btw.   And for many parts, the difference between a drought and normal precip is one really rainy day.  Moses Lake, for example, averages less than 8 inches of rain per year.

 

Where I live in the East slopes is comparatively wetter, but there is still irrigation for the pear orchards, since the summer is so dry here even during "wet" summers. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What's probably most likely is some cold air dumping east of the Cascades and some brisk 48/27 type days in early February.

[Timmy]

What's probably most likely is some cold air dumping east of the Cascades and some brisk 48/27 type days in early February.

that’s a pretty precise forecast almost 3 weeks out!

[Deweydog]

What's probably most likely is some cold air dumping east of the Cascades and some brisk 48/27 type days in early February.

Are you seeing any high cloud potential?

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the EPS control model looks just like the GFS parallel model late in the month with the prospects for a major cold wave.  The EPS ensemble mean also has a + anomaly in the sweet spot late month although the downstream stuff isn't sharp enough for greatness here...at least not yet.  The LRC this season says we should have an opportunity sometime in the next 2.5 weeks.  At least the model trends look a bit positive right now.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

FWIW the EPS control model looks just like the GFS parallel model late in the month with the prospects for a major cold wave. The EPS ensemble mean also has a + anomaly in the sweet spot late month although the downstream stuff isn't sharp enough for greatness here...at least not yet. The LRC this season says we should have an opportunity sometime in the next 2.5 weeks. At least the model trends look a bit positive right now.

I agree 100%.

 

Negative Nancys on here.

[Farmboy]

Incredible how the regional drought just keeps going. All the way up to the Canadian border.

There's a drought up there? Hmm..

[BLI snowman]

What's probably most likely is some cold air dumping east of the Cascades and some brisk 48/27 type days in early February.

 

Spokane hasn't been below 14 yet this "cold" season. 1957-58 bottomed out at 17, 1933-34 bottomed out at 19, and 1925-26 bottomed out at 18, then this year is the next worst. 

 

Definitely a throwback style year!

[Front Ranger]

I don't know, it seems to be pretty well following the script of our historic baddies to a tee so far. Not sure what's so unique about it. Analogs work both ways you know, can't just trumpet them when things are looking interesting or still in the early stages of the winter.

Most of the worst DJF winters had a significant cold event in late October through mid November.

 

But as we've discussed before, I don't think the best way to use analogs is by comparing events up to this point at the local or even regional level.

[snow_wizard]

I agree 100%.

 

Negative Nancys on here.

 

As you've probably noticed I have just stayed away from the forum when I don't have something positive to say this winter.  I figure just silently brooding about it is better than coming on here and unloading like I have in the past. At any rate I think we have a realistic shot coming up, and maybe in the part of the winter that has historically been big for us.

[Front Ranger]

Late February 2003 is probably about the magnitude of what we could realistically hope for at this point. Blocking should overwhelmingly favor the East from here on out.

Those statements are not mutually inclusive.

[snow_wizard]

Another thing worth noting right now is the fact Nino 3.4 has been below the El Nino threshold for a week now.

[Front Ranger]

Spokane hasn't been below 14 yet this "cold" season. 1957-58 bottomed out at 17, 1933-34 bottomed out at 19, and 1925-26 bottomed out at 18, then this year is the next worst.

 

Definitely a throwback style year!

Dewey would encourage you to check the calendar.

[BLI snowman]

Those statements are not mutually inclusive.

 

2003 was a pretty cold winter in the East, as I'm sure you recall.

[TT-SEA]

As you've probably noticed I have just stayed away from the forum when I don't have something positive to say this winter. I figure just silently brooding about it is better than coming on here and unloading like I have in the past. At any rate I think we have a realistic shot coming up, and maybe in the part of the winter that has historically been big for us.

Sometimes it's better to just let it out... its therapeutic. I don't know why that would be a problem on here as long as the person is just venting and not attacking others.

[BLI snowman]

Most of the worst DJF winters had a significant cold event in late October through mid November.

 

But as we've discussed before, I don't think the best way to use analogs is by comparing events up to this point at the local or even regional level.

 

And the winters that do deliver here overwhelmingly show some propensity for that by this late stage. As we've discussed. It's not even really about individual analogs at this point anymore so much as it's about collective tendencies within our winter climate.

[Kayla]

Something backdoor isn’t out of the question.

 

Indian Head Man has spoken.

[Front Ranger]

2003 was a pretty cold winter in the East, as I'm sure you recall.

 

I do (it was also a much stronger Nino).

 

The point is that blocking could overwhelmingly favor the East going forward, but could still easily include something better than late Feb 2003 for you guys.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I think something similar to 2/12/95 is probably our ceiling. Which was a nice event.

One of my earliest memories as a kid of getting snow. Some parts of PDX got over a foot of snow. Classic retrogression signal.

 

[Jesse]

FWIW the EPS control model looks just like the GFS parallel model late in the month with the prospects for a major cold wave. The EPS ensemble mean also has a + anomaly in the sweet spot late month although the downstream stuff isn't sharp enough for greatness here...at least not yet. The LRC this season says we should have an opportunity sometime in the next 2.5 weeks. At least the model trends look a bit positive right now.

Agreed Jim, at very least a classic niño post-1/15 torch doesn’t look to be coming up. Good to have you posting again.

[Front Ranger]

And the winters that do deliver here overwhelmingly show some propensity for that by this late stage. As we've discussed. It's not even really about individual analogs at this point anymore so much as it's about collective tendencies within our winter climate.

 

Analogs to me are more about the large-scale factors that previous winters have in common with the current one.

 

And the fact remains that there simply aren't a lot of winters that line up with all of the large scale factors in play this year. So I think it's less safe than usual to fall back on the usual regional tendencies.

 

I will say that I should have known December was likely to torch after the cold November nationally. With +ENSO winters, that is very common, regardless of other factors.

[BLI snowman]

I do (it was also a much stronger Nino).

 

The point is that blocking could overwhelmingly favor the East going forward, but could still easily include something better than late Feb 2003 for you guys.

 

Ok, is there any modern climatological precedent for that this late in the season? You could try to argue the end of 1959-60, but that was a consistently chilly season for the West and a good chunk of the blocking favored the West in late February and very early March.

[Kayla]

Pacific gets completely shut down on all the models now on days 7-8. At least it finally looks like winter is coming back.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eastern Washington agriculture depends on irrigation, not rain, so droughts don't matter as much.   That is why dams are built, btw.   And for many parts, the difference between a drought and normal precip is one really rainy day.  Moses Lake, for example, averages less than 8 inches of rain per year.

 

Where I live in the East slopes is comparatively wetter, but there is still irrigation for the pear orchards, since the summer is so dry here even during "wet" summers. 

 

Inland Empire.