Omegaraptor Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Mountain snow for 2/2-2/4 just keeps getting better and better! YES! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 He did not blow it. He waffled kinda like we all do and just like the models do also. Bryant hates me with every fiber of being. So he has no credibility when it comes to me. He is driven by pure hatred. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 PDX still hanging at 39 with low clouds. Wonder if we will end up stuck in the soup again today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 The 12Z ECMWF screws most of western WA and OR. The trough digs offshore down to CA and leaves us in no man's land. Total snow through next Monday morning... when the precip is basically done per the 12Z ECMWF. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 The 12Z ECMWF screws most of western WA and OR. The trough digs offshore down to CA and leaves us in no man's land. Total snow through next Monday morning... when the precip is basically done per the 12Z ECMWF. Might have to bump that 80-90% chance down to a more conservative 75-85%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 I’m still pretty floored to see the ensemble agreement for anything in early February. Looks like it could potentially be a several day period of -PNA as well, as opposed to a quick hitter like one might expect in the context of this winter. Still not quite sure what to make of it. This post doesn’t have anything to do with whether or not the NWS should start issuing warnings ten days in advance, btw. Just some general discussion on how strange it would be to get anything in the window advertised in a winter like this. Yeah, which is why I would still bet against anything significant or long lasting occurring. Unlike in 1887, we don't have a strong La Nina and a cold friendly climate on our side. If anything actually happens then I guess it's a case of our 8-9 climo trumping our climo climo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 The ECMWF isn't bad, but it doesn't get as wild as the GFS. This could be due to the GFS indicating a much more robust MJO wave in octant 7 than the ECMWF. The recent trend on MJO forecasts has been for the GFS to overdo the waves and the ECMWF to underdo them. A compromise between the models seems the way to go right now. A blend would be pretty darn good. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 What happened? Slid east? I think the block collapsed and the cold air didn't get pushed south. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 The ecmwf snow maps at least in north east wa have not been as accurate as the mm5 the last month fwiw. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 The 12Z ECMWF screws most of western WA and OR. The trough digs offshore down to CA and leaves us in no man's land. Total snow through next Monday morning... when the precip is basically done per the 12Z ECMWF. Surface details notwithstanding, the upper level pattern is actually pretty good and brings the cold offshore flow in a little bit quicker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Not bad for this far out. Of course surface maps this far out are a joke usually. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 All of the day10-15 period looks very stable. The result is 01261C1E-678D-40E7-994E-3EA7CACF05C6.png 92471065-B374-4858-84CC-43A00ACF4A64.pngThe long range ensemble mean looks stable, but I suspect the result will be anything but given the relatively short duration of this jet retraction in a regime of AAM deposition. Not really an easy pattern to model (especially from afar). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 The ecmwf snow maps at least in north east wa have not been as accurate as the mm5 the last month fwiw. The problem with the ECMWF is the 500mb pattern... the main energy digs offshore and down into CA and then the entire trough shifts east. The WRF will definitely change if the ECMWF has the 500mb pattern correct. That is the big question though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Bryant hates me with every fiber of being. So he has no credibility when it comes to me. He is driven by pure hatred. Lol, he doesn’t hate you. He hates your anti-cold troll schtick (and your love of palm trees). Fix that and you’re fine. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 I've always wanted to know what model is best with each type of pattern. The euro has played catch up the last few days compared to the gfs. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Euro isn't bad, just not quite robust enough to dig the initial arctic airmass very much. We're left with chilly offshore flow in the believable window and a favorable looking setup for continued cold in the 11-15 day timeframe, similar to the GFS/GEFS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Lol, he doesn’t hate you. He hates your anti-cold troll schtick (and your love of palm trees). Fix that and you’re fine.BS. Everyone has a right to like whatever weather they like. I am not telling anyone else what to like. Palm trees? We mention that once a year... maybe. Who cares what trees people like? I have no palm trees here. He has a true hatred of me. There is nothing to fix. He never stops. For years... his biggest complaint was my interaction with Jim. I fixed that and it seems to have pissed him off more. He is angry man. He should put me on ignore. I literally will never respond to his posts if he just ignores me. Hopefully a ban will come if he keeps it up. I was banned for hounding Jim... and rightfully so. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Lol, he doesn’t hate you. He hates your anti-cold troll schtick (and your love of palm trees). Fix that and you’re fine.Phil is there a chance this cold happens? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Not bad for this far out. Of course surface maps this far out are a joke usually.Other than that c-zone signature it Looks like probably some light snow in the air for some people Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Other than that c-zone signature it Looks like probably some light snow in the air for some people I'm pretty certain this pattern will deliver for someone along the east coast of Vancouver Island. Much like the initial blast last February that nailed the Nanaimo - Parksville area and a narrow convergence zone. Down here our best hope is probably in having some energy hang back and form a secondary low on Sunday. It's hard to score snow when the trough is moving that quickly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Could be better, could be worse. If Feb is cold then “frontloaded” might not have been the best phraseology. I guess 2 out of 3? I don’t think the late January jet extension/Pineapple Express verified (the jet didn’t extend very far). The rough outline of my thoughts (from a lower frequency perspective) remains the same: a frontloaded winter in the west, a warm January, and a “muted” February, with a relatively strong jet compared to most +ENSO years. What to watch for:- A big time Pineapple Express event affecting the west between 1/10 and 2/10. (Mostly a bust). - The PV/NAM disruptions (and possibly a SSW) are favored to occur during the front half of winter. If we fail to kill the vortex by 1/15, then a late final warming (like the spring of 1997) is favored, which would coincide with an anomalous pattern in MAM). (Verified). - I don’t see the +ENSO climo type progression that roasts the West in February this year. I think the warm period will actually be centered in January this year, then maybe again in March (but that’s less certain).(Probably verifies). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 No.Yes. Obviously, whether it makes it south of the border/over the terrain is another question. I’m not sure the pattern will last as long as the models currently project, though. There’s a truckload of AAM still in the subtropics and there’s more deposition in the pipeline. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yes. Obviously, whether it makes it south of the border/over the terrain is another question. I’m not sure the pattern will last as long as the models currently project, though. There’s a truckload of AAM still in the subtropics and there’s more deposition in the pipeline.I literally don’t think I’ve ever seen you go bullish on a cold period for us when one is actually within modeled range. Sure, when they are perpetually around the corner, 3-4 weeks/years away. But once it gets within the long range of the GFS forget about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 I'm ready for arctic express 2019. 4 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Nice day! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Nice day!Above the low clouds up there? #watercondensedintheboundarylayerisnevernice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Above the low clouds up there? #watercondensedintheboundarylayerisneverniceThrow in a Tim’s lawyer reference here and it would have been a Sunday komedy trifecta! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Throw in a Tim’s lawyer reference here and it would have been a Sunday komedy trifecta!Yeah, should have worked it in somehow. There has been a good deal of vicTimization going on this morning. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 And you have now jinxed it I got the new snowblower out of the shed and ready to go... I am standing by to fire it up. Also sent out an e-mail to everyone in my Outlook contact list telling them to prepare for a blizzard. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yeah, should have worked it in somehow. There has been a good deal of vicTimization going on this morning.2 late. Now it would just seem desperate and sad. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Willamette National Cemetery up on Mt. Scott very foggy and a bit chillyGood day for a zombie movie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 late. Now it would just seem desperate and sad.Like Bryant. He a stinky stinky boy!!! :lol: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Ooops....that’s a HUGE photo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Like Bryant. He a stinky stinky boy!!! :lol: Reeks of desperation! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Like Bryant. He a stinky stinky boy!!! :lol:Double lolz!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 I literally don’t think I’ve ever seen you go bullish on a cold period for us when one is actually within modeled range. Sure, when they are perpetually around the corner, 3-4 weeks/years away. But once it gets within the long range of the GFS forget about it. Lol. Seems the models love to spit out cold solutions when the forcing state is either “meh” or past its peak in favorability. FWIW, I’m not saying it won’t happen, but it doesn’t look like an Arctic pattern to me. I don’t think there’s enough time. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Nice trends on 12z runs. The 12z GEFS has increased the chances of arctic air sliding down into the Columbia Basin/eastern Gorge. The EURO is close, but not there yet. We need improved amplification. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Nice trends on 12z runs. The 12z GEFS has increased the chances of arctic air sliding down into the Columbia Basin/eastern Gorge. The EURO is close, but not there yet. We need improved amplification. I think we actually need a little less amplification on the 12Z ECMWF... the trough digs a little too far offshore. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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