January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

MUCH closer to the EURO. I'm liking the improvements.

Hopefully the next Euro run will be close to the Euro as well!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM HUGE improvements

[Requiem]

Hopefully the next Euro run will be close to the Euro as well!

 

I'm actually legit hoping so haha

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hope the GFS ensembles are better.

[Gradient Keeper]

Uhhh.... Day 6-7

 

[wxmet]

00Z GFS showing a nice 500mb shortwave swinging through the region at 150hrs bring with it cold onshore flow and additional snowfall. Good improvement on this run overall. 

[TT-SEA]

With the consistent EPS as the backdrop... it seems like all the models are just figuring it out at their own pace but all headed to the same point.      

[Requiem]

Hope the GFS ensembles are better.

 

The operational was quite good, I don't see why the ensembles shouldn't be better or the same.

[MossMan]

Just checked the freezer to make sure my good luck Christmas snowball was still around! Still lookin good!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Esquimalt]

The operational was quite good, I don't see why the ensembles shouldn't be better or the same.

Operational is great. Keeps the cold air over VI and northern Washington with the Fraser outflow pumping

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just checked the freezer to make sure my good luck Christmas snowball was still around! Still lookin good!

I should head over to EUG where they have the one they saved from 1990. They had George HW Bush put his presidential seal on it.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 6-7 .... Haven't seen 850s like this for PDX since I think December 2013? Correct me if I'm wrong

 

[jakeinthevalley]

Boise NWS flat out rejects the Euro solutions

[TT-SEA]

Boise NWS flat out rejects the Euro solutions

 

 

The ECMWF solution is going to be complete model consensus by tomorrow... what will they say then?   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just checked the freezer to make sure my good luck Christmas snowball was still around! Still lookin good!

I have to meet you. Craziest weather nut on the forum!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The ECMWF solution is going to be complete model consensus by tomorrow... what will they say then?

They’ll go with the MFR

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Uhhh.... Day 6-7

 

00z GEM Day 6-7 .... Haven't seen 850s like this for PDX since I think December 2013? Correct me if I'm wrong

 

[TT-SEA]

I think the 00Z ECMWF is going to be absolutely crazy tonight.  

[Requiem]

i think the 00Z ECMWF is going to be absolutely crazy tonight.  

 

I'm a bit skeptical. Don't know why.

[Gradient Keeper]

i think the 00Z ECMWF is going to be absolutely crazy tonight.  

If the tilt and amplification of the block holds Days 5-7, yes it very well could be prolific.

 

Nice improvements on GFS Days 3-5, then falls off. 00z GEM dramatic improvements with a quick arctic blast, but not enough staying power for prolonged cold long range. Focus on Days 3-5 only things are looking encouraging. We need the EURO to hold strong and see all models eventually agree moving towards a EURO, EURO/GEM blend with good run-to-run consistency the next 6-8 runs.

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 12 minutes

[TT-SEA]

I'm a bit skeptical. Don't know why.

 

Probably past history.

 

But this one is different. I feel it.

[Esquimalt]

GEM and euro snow maps are pretty comparable for northern regions

[Frontal Snowsquall]

i think the 00Z ECMWF is going to be absolutely crazy tonight.

Keeping my fingers crossed.

[FroYoBro]

i think the 00Z ECMWF is going to be absolutely crazy tonight.  

 

 

Why? I really doubt it will be better than the 12z. 

[Bryant]

Probably past history.

 

But this one is different. I feel it.

Kind of like you felt the potential a couple weeks ago, then didn't feel it, then felt it again, then didn't feel it again...?

 

You get the idea

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm at a 30% chance at an arctic blast (850s -12c or colder) *right now*. If the EURO continues its trend or improves I'll bump that up to 35%. I've done this too many years and have learned not to go all in until we are 3 to 3 1/2 days out with SOLID model agreement.

 

6z GEFS in 6 hours 20 minutes

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TT-SEA]

Kind of like you felt the potential a couple weeks ago, then didn't feel it, then felt it again, then didn't feel it again...?

 

You get the idea

 

I was right... should not have doubted it.   Need to just trust my instincts.    I also said the models would take it away and bring back it back on short notice.   

[Deweydog]

The lack of 300+ hour maps recently is troubling.

[Esquimalt]

The lack of 300+ hour maps recently is troubling.

The CFS runs of late have been looking good. Solidly cool February average

[Gradient Keeper]

The lack of 300+ hour maps recently is troubling.

I could not agree more. Well, I could, but that could become annoying. Yeah. Just think a few days ago we were living happily at 384 hours. The crazy joy, the wild imaginations, the frolicking, the lack of Tim'isms or Jim'isms.... Never again. Never again.

 

00z ECMWF in 59 minutes

[VancouverIslandSouth]

GEM and euro snow maps are pretty comparable for northern regions

 

Lots of "backwash" surface low possibilities with this pattern coming up. I always like to see strong Arctic outflow off the North/Central BC coast.

[Jesse]

I called this one years ago, guys. Just knew it was coming. I also think the 00z Euro will show a January 1950 redux. Like my posts!!

[The Swamp]

I would like to see better positioning of the SE Ridge.

 

Tim, when will it warm up and rain?

[MossMan]

Just told my wife. Her response resembled the NWS Seattle AFD.

[Esquimalt]

Lots of "backwash" surface low possibilities with this pattern coming up. I always like to see strong Arctic outflow off the North/Central BC coast.

Yeah I agree. I think an area of very heavy straight effect snow is possible early Monday morning for eastern areas of our forecast region (Oak Bay, Saanich)

[TT-SEA]

I called this one years ago, guys. Just knew it was coming. I also think the 00z Euro will show a January 1950 redux. Like my posts!!

 

I am going to just troll the bitter, angry, little man.    Can't win with him.    I will just keep him busy desperately chasing me like a pathetic dog.      

[Jesse]

Well that escalated quickly... 

[Winterdog]

I'm thinking the 0Z Euro is going to back off considerably on the cold and closely resemble the GFS.  This event will probably end up with some lumpy rain and highs in the low 40's.