January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Seattle back to 519 thickness on Friday night! Not too often you see the thickness lines running straight E to W on this side of the mountains. This pattern is excellent for the Puget Sound area because there are no easterly gradients to cause downslope heating.

Pretty crazy stuff. I’m still not sure what to think entirely.

[TT-SEA]

The fact that you felt the need to reply to that silly post in order to make it clear it was not a burn sort of says it all.

 

Sounds good. 

[Perturbed Member]

Holy crap this run is cold!  The weatherbell maps spit out sub freezing afternoon temps well into next week for Seattle.  Nice snow shown for Portland on Tuesday.

 

 

GFS continuing to play catch up to the ECMWF there. Euro had been locked on the prolonged cold for a while already and now the GFS is finally catching on. 

[Deweydog]

Pretty crazy stuff. I’m still not sure what to think entirely.

Jesse doubts are far more pure and honorable than Tim doubts.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Serious cold all next week and reload is looking strong! A bunch os snow opportunities too! BRING IT!

BC921ACB-56AC-43B8-A11F-EECDEFA0D12F.png

We're all ready to get pounded hard! ❄❄

[Deweydog]

We're all ready to get pounded hard! ❄❄

That’s what she, she and she said.

[Jesse]

Jesse doubts are far more pure and honorable than Tim doubts.

Oh come on. We all know you would never side with me over him.

 

Plus I didn’t make any calls 2-3 weeks out. A second blast seems pretty outlandish, but I’d take it!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty crazy stuff. I’m still not sure what to think entirely.

 

As modeled on the GEM and GFS the cold shot late next week, while not digging as far south probably has better low level cold potential than the Sunday-Tuesday stuff at least for PDX. Looks like a wannabe February 2014.

[luvssnow_spokane]

We're all ready to get pounded hard! ❄❄

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

We're all ready to get pounded hard! ❄❄

Naughty.

[Deweydog]

Oh come on. We all know you would never side with me over him.

 

Plus I didn’t make any calls 2-3 weeks out. A second blast seems pretty outlandish, but I’d take it!

I don’t take sides. Not possible at this altitude.

[Jesse]

[Gradient Keeper]

I just woke up. How were the 00z GFS and GEM?

 

00z ECMWF in 54 minutes

[Deweydog]

As modeled on the GEM and GFS the cold shot late next week, while not digging as far south probably has better low level cold potential than the Sunday-Tuesday stuff at least for PDX. Looks like a wannabe February 2014.

I was gonna say, has some similarities. It’s being referred to as the second Arctic blast but really it would be the first.

[Jesse]

I just woke up. How were the 00z GFS and GEM?

 

00z ECMWF in 54 minutes

You can either have Andrew or Frontal snowsquall give you the breakdown. It’s like a choose your own adventure story!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You can either have Andrew or Frontal snowsquall give you the breakdown. It’s like a choose your own adventure story!

 

Looks great!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah hard to find much bad about the GFS. Im sure it’s gonna change and pull back beforehand. But should at least see some flakes in the air.

[Brennan]

If only this were happening a month earlier when sun angles weren’t.....

[Gradient Keeper]

Lol. Just kidding.

 

Yeah best GFS operational run yet by far especially Centralia, Olympia northward. I love the improvements after Day 5.5 very EPS. Day 8+ backdoor cold shot with increasing east winds. It'll be significant colder than modeled Gorge to PDX due to this. Factor in possible snowcover throughout the Gorge and Columbia Basin.

 

00z GEM very cold, backdoor reload Day 8+. Potential for a much stronger arctic blast. 500mb pattern after Day 6 also follows the EPS. The potential the next 4-8 days is huge. I'm still cautiously optimistic with some confidence increasing. I want to see models hold through Friday 00z.

 

6z GFS in 4 hours 30 minutes

[Jesse]

Looks great!

 

I think the low water mark for this event is Mark's current 7-day.

[Deweydog]

If only this were happening a month earlier when sun angles weren’t.....

Not cool.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Front Ranger]

That's one thing I wouldn't like about places like Denver. If I live somewhere continental I want it to be consistently cold.

You might change your mind if you lived in North Dakota. Variety isn't bad.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That’s what she, she and she said.

9DC60846-E868-4422-AA1F-8F5CFBF8D5FE.gif

Naughty.

http://www.thenewportbuzz.com/winter-storm-quinn-threatens-a-backdoor-6-9-inch-pounding-on-wednesday/14632

 

http://www.thenewportbuzz.com/winter-storm-newport-expected-to-get-pounded-by-a-thick-8-12-inches/13894

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 running NOW!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Glad to see the GEM still bringing it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Really like the look of the R2D2 model tonight.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Phil]

I think this event could be the beginning of a major regime shift / a major pattern shakeup. It will be interesting to see where we go after the cold blocky regime ends.

 

As for the 1950s summers...some of the months were delightful in spite of being chilly. A redux of that decade would be amazing.

What makes you say that? I see the favorable MT/AAM and ERW train backing over the IPWP, which supports the upcoming pattern, but I don’t see how it could be long term shift. It appears to be a sub-seasonal state.

[El_Nina]

I think we all need to seriously consider that Tim may be controlling the weather. We're just gonna believe it was a coincidence he pulled this perfect forecast out of his a** from 3 weeks out?

[MossMan]

POLAR VORTEX

https://www.king5.com/mobile/article/weather/puget-sound-region-still-has-a-shot-at-getting-snow/281-ef3196dd-9c1c-4771-bce7-251b0e6c6dae

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting comment on the GEM. Late next week 850s only drop to about -7C at PDX, but they are about -13C in the Columbia Basin.

[MikeInEverett]

How’s the WHAM looking???

[Deweydog]

I think we all need to seriously consider that Tim may be controlling the weather. We're just gonna believe it was a coincidence he pulled this perfect forecast out of his a** from 3 weeks out?

Makes his impending execution a little bittersweet.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I think we all need to seriously consider that Tim may be controlling the weather. We're just gonna believe it was a coincidence he pulled this perfect forecast out of his a** from 3 weeks out?

It hasn’t come to pass yet. Let’s not be annointing anyone until we have at least an inch from EUG-YVR. Can’t let the guard down.

[seattleweatherguy]

What makes you say that? I see the favorable MT/AAM and ERW train backing over the IPWP, which supports the upcoming pattern, but I don’t see how it could be long term shift. It appears to be a sub-seasonal state.

In other words, another hot summer...

[TT-SEA]

I think we all need to seriously consider that Tim may be controlling the weather. We're just gonna believe it was a coincidence he pulled this perfect forecast out of his a** from 3 weeks out?

 

[Perturbed Member]

Models starting to look pretty similar across the board for the Sunday-Morning event. Here is the 00z GEM

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim could be the Tony Romo of weather!

[Jesse]

Makes his impending execution a little bittersweet.

 

Seriously, just cut it out with the victimizing Tim crap. It gets really old. He has built a reputation for himself over the last 10+ years, and even though he has definitely improved recently people have memories. Any s**t flung his way, especially if it's not overtly mean spirited ( I don't think anything lately really has been ) is probably doing a pretty good job of balancing out old karmic debt if nothing else. He's a big boy and can handle it. Routinely making it out to be more than it is just makes things worse.

 

/rant